In her final speech as a public official, the now former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Christina Romer, explained that the country required more stimulus to raise aggregate demand, and that failure to do so leaves “unemployed workers to suffer.”
Departing White House chief economist Christina Romer called Wednesday on Congress to summon the political will to “finish the job of economic recovery” by pumping more cash into the economy through additional tax cuts for businesses and middle-class families, as well as fresh investments in the nation’s infrastructure.
In an advance copy of her remarks before the National Press Club, Romer did not say how much more she thinks Congress should spend to combat a jobless rate stuck at 9.5 percent. With massive deficits looming, Romer said much of the cost of any new package should be covered by spending cuts or tax increases in the future, after the economy has fully recovered.
But, she said, the election-year anxiety about current deficits that has blocked so much of President Obama’s economic agenda “cannot be an excuse for leaving unemployed workers to suffer.”
“We have tools that would bring unemployment down without worsening our long-run fiscal outlook,” she said, “if we can only find the will and the wisdom to use them.”
The solutions Romer offered tend toward the “what can pass Congress today” side of the debate, rather than “what can solve the aggregate demand problem.” It’s another brew of tax cuts, tempered with investments in infrastructure. If the infrastructure program were big enough, that could provide a boost. But nobody has yet provided hard numbers.
While it’s clear that Romer sets out the need to “finish the job of economic recovery” directly, the means by which that job gets solved matter. As Martin Wolf said today, the Obama campaign keeps paying the price for the original sin of making the stimulus too small. And now, they’ve boxed themselves into a corner where the only way toward anything but stagnation goes through a tax cut.
So what is going to happen? I assume that, after the midterm elections, resurgent Republicans will offer new tax cuts and ignore the fiscal deficits. They will pretend that this has nothing to do with any reviled stimulus, though it is much the same thing – increasing fiscal deficits, thereby offsetting private frugality. That would put the administration on the spot. It would have to choose between vetoing the tax cuts and accepting them, so allowing the Republicans to get the credit for their “yacht and mansion-led” recovery. Any recovery is better than none. But it could have been much better than this. Those who were cautious when they should have been bold will pay a big price.
This has major implications for the future. By walking into a corner where only tax cuts offer a way out, it perpetuates a false narrative, that Keynesian measures failed and only conservative economic ideas can succeed. In the short run, voters will reward or punish the man in the White House based on their objective economic situation, but in the long run, that narrative will take hold, one of supply-side economics to the rescue. And it’s deeply wrong.
You can argue that nothing bigger and better was politically feasible; we’ll never know about that. But what we do know is that (1) senior administration officials, even in internal arguments, claimed that half-measures were the right thing to do, based on … well, invented doctrines that certainly weren’t basic Keynesian. And (2), the administration has never said that it had to make do with an underpowered plan; on the contrary, to this day it maintains that what it did was just right. And this just feeds the false narrative.
So I’m trying to keep the record straight here. It may not matter for the immediate political debate, but I think it does matter for the long game.
For long-term progressive politics, the stimulus battle may have been far more consequential than anyone realized, regardless of the overall merits of what passed.




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Romer should have been speaking out on this for the last year and a half. I hate these riding off into the sunset moments where the one leaving says something to the effect of oh, yeah, like you guys were saying, we should have done something else.
Also it is important to remember that the stimulus was an early example of an Obama pre-compromise. Then he didn’t push his own plan rather he let Congress grind something out. It came out too small and poorly structured, but also at 2 years, too short.
These people are a fiasco.
Exactly. It’s nothing but an exercise in clearing one’s conscience to say things like this on the way out the door while staying silent when actually in a position to do something. Like Ken Mehlman coming out now, it doesn’t do anybody any good at all.
It is probably true that Obama settled for less in the stimulus than he should have. There goes that consensus thing again and this is all hindsight. But the job needs to be completed. One form of tax cut they can do is investment tax credits for business that are set to expire at some point in the future. Such a credit will also serve to get the cash off the corporate balance sheets to make those investments in capital spending or training.
The dems and Obama should also be able to do some horse trading here. There are lots of things on the table for tax cuts, estate tax and the catfood commission. On the other hand the conversation is being driven by the tea party and those Koch folks and so a lot of dems are going to be reluctant to go along, just like they were after last years town hall meeetings on health care. I don’t know how we can buy them a pair but we have to try.
The progressives lost the battle long before O was elected. All you’re seeing now is the specific way in which that loss is playing out.
My work on that specific subject rejects the hypothesis that there is any stim at all in that bankrupt idea. Corps invest because demand is strong, not on account of tax gimmicks. And demand sucks.
Okay, maybe she should have spoken out earlier. Pretend I haven’t read every post about this in the past. Someone tell me why Romer’s leaving. Please forgive me. But, I’d still like to know.
Rats & sinking ships come to mind.
Really? That doesn’t jibe with Hugh’s comment. Maybe.
This was David Dayen’s piece on it last month:
Christina Romer to Resign
eggszactly
i cant help but think,the TITANIC,has already hit the iceberg(Boosh Cheney years) and now with BHO,the lifeboats are filled with bankers ,Insurance CEOs and Pill Pushers
WE ARE STEERAGE and gonna drown
oh jeeze ,you and i think alike,for better or worse….hahahahaha
you know of course there are those who might disagree with you. Just an idea that the smart people need to consider. Problem now is the corps are not investing on much of anything and are keeping nearly 2 trillion dollars tied up. They might be encouraged to spend some of it by a tax credit now as opposed to later.
In what way is it inconsistent with Hugh? His comment is about what she shoulda said while she was in a position to try to make it happen, not why she is leaving. My guess is that she made some weak statements to that effect during meetings, found she was roundly trounced for it, so decided to leave rather than stay & fight, or stay & speak out. (When was the last time any admin official ever chose that option.)
But I’m making all of that up out of whole cloth. I was not a fly on the wall.
the rumor I heard was she had no accesss to Obama and that it was all Summers. I don’t really know though.
Well, in the day I looked at the data when they tried exactly that. Granted it’s been a decade since I did any serious economics work, but I don’t think there’s been another test case for your hypothesis, at least in the U.S.
i want off the Titanic
Thank you.
I would agree this is not something that is always a sure winner. But this may be one of those times when companies are timid about capex or training. If you have to give a tax break this is something they should look at. You can’t claim the credit unless you spend money and that is what we are trying to do and companies will spend a lot more than the credit.
Hoping you have your arsenal lined up so you get into one of the lifeboats. Speaking of which, how are the France plans coming along?
The National Association of Highway Engineers estimate that U.S. infrastructure needs 1 trillion dollars in upgrades and maintenance. The U.S. doesn’t have the vision for such a bold investment and Mr. Limpit in the WH certainly doesn’t.
have bought 5 books,real estate being emailed to me,seems it wont be too dificult,have to figure out how to get pets there…ya better come visit…..G
tis the pity
that horses ass could have anounced,complete overhaul of NOLAs levys…. he coulda been a contenda! alas he is a fukwit
So why take chances on something that hasn’t worked in the past? Just because the Rs might vote for it? While they have shown no signs of voting for anything O or Ds advance? Fails on political as well as economics grounds. If you want a higher effectiveness policy (but ones that can’t pass), increase unemployment insurance, really help homeowners in foreclosure, do infrastructure spending. At least trying those, the Ds would fail on the right track rather than failing on a likely wrong track.
Do you have dual citizenship?
That’s being to kind to him.
no.
Keep us updated.
OT
Was it you who posted a recipe for corn relish several days ago, that included cukes and many other vegies? I didn’t print it out right away, and have lost the link.
How much unemployment reduction you get for a given amount of stimulus spending?
For $800 billion, we got a reduction of 0.7 to 1.8 percentage points.
Full employment is 4.5-5%. (I know people who wouldn’t work as stockers for a blind liquor store owner, 100%, no way.)
That means we would have needed a stimulus of, on the low end, $2.5 trillion, on the high end $4-5 trillion.
Pay up sucka, or if you don’t have money to pay, tell your kids to pay up.
SadlyyesIlovecrepes !!!
http://southernfood.about.com/od/picklesrelishes/r/bl90718a.htm
Were did you get your figures, the Heritage Institute or Cato?
almost made some last night….gggggggg!
HOWDY
The single most stimulative item on the list: Food Stamps, by an enormous margin.
The first (or one of the first) items stricken from the legislation: Food Stamps.
Mmmm … Crepes Suzette is my fave dessert evvuh !
I’m charred to a crisp, how’re you doing ?
Why are you wastin’ reason and facts ?!! *g*
Thanks. This time I printed it out.
sending ya these>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
http://tiny.cc/m5ifj
hear that
Love you lots !!! *g*
Thanks. Forgot that one.
when the bees start producing
http://simplyrecipes.com/recipes/honey_glazed_lemon_roast_chicken/
If you dispute the numbers please correct me. The money was spent (or allocated) and the unemployment is up.
I don’t care to spend a lot of time compiling references for sites that debate Stimulus with corn relish and crepes.
Just seems a little unserious if you don’t mind me saying so.
Hiya Petro. All the excuse you’ll ever need.
back atcha!
my Dad,said that 40 years ago,even though he was a tea totaler… pathologist…the alchies blood vessels are very flexable, he did many studies
Hiya eCAHN ! + life just seems more fun … *g*
Those durned Noo Yawkers are trying to talk me into driving down to New England for a visit …
Thanks. Got that one too. Will give it a try when weather cools down enough to turn on the oven.
That looks too good to eat …
Are you worried about the hurricane?
Watch out for Earl.
i add cinnamon ,and butter
I am spending most of my time in the country, 85 miles from NYC. Map indicates that Earl won’t come inland that far, so no, not worried.
Last hurricane threat to Manhattan, prolly early 1980s, turned out to be a bust: just heavy rains, not very heavy winds. So even in the city it might not be so bad. But too early to tell. But it’s all over the NYC news.
Don’t know any food that wasn’t enhanced by adding butter. *g* Cinnamon rarely hurts either.
Jeebus, it’s a Category 4 ? And with this heat, it’s not likely to weaken …
i lived in South Palm Beach county,Fl…moved to Tn foothills after 2005,survived 4 hurricanes,Katrina,and Wilma same year…Wilma was the worst,was almost killed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma
Wilma almost killed a couple of my relatives … suddenly, Toronto’s winter dudn’t seem so bad.
i hear ya…i was really scared to death…. last storm i ever want to be in
its a Lebanese style,and put over rice pilaf
That’s what they said too … thank heavens you survived !
This thread was about Stimulus.
I don’t care to spend a lot of time compiling references for sites that debate Stimulus with corn relish and crepes, or weather.
As I said, it just seems a little unserious to me.
To repeat the story of the early 80s hurricane threat to Manhattan (because it’s mildly amusing.
I had a 9am meeting with client from Chicago. It was a Friday. I expected him to call the day before, but he showed up. After an hour, he showed no signs of leaving so about 15 min later I asked whether he was worried about getting home, given weather conditions. He told me he had never experienced a hurricane and wanted to see what it was like. I told him I wanted to get going to the country, so he left to experience the hurricane from his hotel.
As I typed in 53, it turned out to be a bust, luckily. But we still had an interesting experience. We literally drove to the country in the eye. We pulled over on a lookout on Palisades Pkwy right across the GW Bridge. The sky was clear overhead, but all around were threatening clouds and that strange green-gray light. Then we got back into the car & drove on. Little rain on the trip, a little more once we got to the country. So we got there during the eye, but as we arrived, the eye passed, but that far inland, the storm was much diminished.
As I said, too early to tell about that one. Most of the tall vulnerable trees near the house came down in past storms, so the only one left, a large ash with a hollow trunk, slants away from the house, so if it goes, it’ll likely fall the other way. If it looks serious, I’ll fill my tubs with water & hope for the best.
Niice.
thanks,
one of the shutters flew off,i had my huge derriere over the window with a mattress pad,a bottle of Oban scotch was 2 ft away,but if i reached for it,and let go of the mattress pad,the window would have gone,then the roof
Hobsons choice,i was sober for 4 hrs
b ye…see ya….tut,tut
*cough* … If it’s really serious, I’ll send a St. Bernard with emergency supplies
Here’s wishing everyone an unserious night, cause Thers is tearing it up on Late Nite … Linky to Thers
Etiquette here is that after 50 comments, off-topic is OK. But feel free to continue discussion about stim, and we’ll try to respond. For me, it’s after 11p, so getting late to hold to serious topics, but don’t feel constrained.
good luck,i always mourn the trees,i know,im crazy…but i adore them
you are a gentle lady and a scholar…again………..g
Serious cat.
http://s277.photobucket.com/albums/kk47/Inshonotai/?action=view¤t=serious-cat.jpg&&newest=1
I’d be a whole lot more pleased to be discussing Summers, Geithner and Bernanake’s departing speeches.
As far as Romer’s last speech, it’s quite disappointing. She had a chance to seriously change the conversation. Where’s the talk of a jobs program, rebuilding necessary infrastructure, increasing taxes to force good spending. At this point, continuing to frame the debate by “what is possible” in a seriously broken Senate and a dysfunctional House is basically asking the Republicans to come in and take over.
Obama, the WH and the DC Dems seem to be giving up on governing.
Are yousmoking hash,or did you simply fail econ1? Corps are not going to invest even with a tax credit if there is no demand to warrant the investment. The only credit that would induce investment would have to be close to 100 percent in this environment. We are heading toward economic armageddon. Christie was right all along, but no one in the cabinet was prepared to listen. (I have this on good authority)
Has anyone caught on to the fact that stimulus money is like heroin?
The more you spend, the less the effect, demanding more spending.
George Bush discovered this with his checks to taxpayers.
The US has run out of people to rip off so now we are ripping off our grandchildren by borrowing more and more money from foreigners.
Hey! The jobs are in China. The more spending that goes on for stimulus, the better the Chinese economy does.
Democrats and Republicans alike have handed over our manufacturing to China and India. No amount of stimulus spending is going to fix that, it will only make it worse.
Democrats are going to get clobbered in the November elections because of the jobs issue and rightly so. They failed to deliver.
Obama promised millions of jobs which of course don’t exist.
I think the crazy liberals like Pelosi and Obama just to mention two of the worst, have come to the end of their line.
No more stimulus, no more raising taxes.
That’ll work well. How much do you believe the Rs will cut from their Keynesian spending? (Defence)
If Bush had not spent $1,000,000,000,000 on foreign adventures, the economy would have tanked after the dot com crash.
The military is the ultimate in consumption, when considering the alternative, investment in the commons. However boosting military spending is easy, infrastructure difficult.
I listened to Romer’s speech on the radio yesterday, and I definitely did not hear “… we should have done something else”.
What I heard was an attempt to perpetrate the myth that they’d done everything they could, everything that was possible and it had been an incredible help to all of us, and things would be infinitely worse if not for all the hard work they did.
Her speech consisted of infuriatingly detailed list of things they’d done, spun so as to leave the impression that they had bravely charged into the breach in defense of the American way of life, and if not for their efforts things would be so bad right now that we can’t imagine it.
According to Romer, this administration’s every effort was effective in making something a little better and we’re on the mend now and we should be grateful for all their hard work.
Romer’s speech was nothing but spin, calculated to obscure the fact that Obama’s financial team is Bush’s financial team, and what we’ve gotten, and what we’re getting is more of the same policy that got us into this mess in the first place.