When Raul Grijalva and Lynn Woolsey told the co-chairs of the Cat Food Commission that they would 100% oppose Social Security cuts, it was pitched as the opening salvo in an aggressive pushback against any changes to benefits. There would be plenty of “CPC-wide follow up” in September, particularly when Congress returned to session, I was assured.
Well, that has begun. Grijalva, John Conyers (D-MI) and Dan Maffei (D-NY) are spearheading an effort, with a “Dear Colleague” letter, to sign on to a statement of principles regarding the deficit commission: “If any of the Commission’s recommendations cut or diminish Social Security in any way, we will stand firmly against them.” Here’s part of the Dear Colleague letter:
Social Security belongs to the workers and their families who have worked hard, paid taxes in, and earned its benefits– it is a promise that must not be broken. Social Security is not the reason for the deficit and it should be protected for today’s and tomorrow’s beneficiaries.
Stand with us in support of Social Security, a promise made to Americans of all generations. Join us in calling on President Obama to protect Social Security in its entirety.
This was first reported by Brian Beutler at TPM, and already Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Chellie Pingree (D-ME), and co-chair of the Progressive Caucus Lynn Woolsey (D-CA) are on board, with dozens more expected. In addition, Sen. Bernie Sanders, a member of the Progressive Caucus, penned an op-ed today strongly opposed to benefit cuts.
An aide to Rep. Conyers believes this effort will be the “key organizing tool on this issue,” and identifies numerous progressive groups who have agreed to help push it, including many of the same groups involved in the Hands Off Social Security effort. They will whip the vote not only internally in the Progressive Caucus but throughout the Democratic caucus.
But there’s more. The ringleaders of this effort may try to move this to the floor in the form of a privileged resolution in September, forcing an up-or-down vote in the House. While some involved with the effort believe that the letter serves the same purpose as a privileged resolution, which would have to get a vote according to the rules of the House, Rep. Grijalva’s spokesman confirmed, “we’ve definitely thought about that avenue.” They want to see what kind of traction they get on the letter in the next couple weeks before committing to additional steps.
But a resolution would be a major raising of the stakes. As I’ve been documenting, Democrats have walked themselves into a box canyon by putting Social Security out front in the election campaign, and casting Republicans as the villains. By putting the question of benefit cuts up to a formal House vote, they can cement that dynamic by forcing Republicans to vote, essentially, for benefit cuts. But Democrats would have to make a choice that could affect their futures, as well, and right before an election. So clearly, a privileged resolution would be the “nuclear option” of this debate. It would be near-impossible for Democrats to vote against it in large numbers. And the deficit commission would have a hard copy of 230 or so votes against their preferred option.
As I said, it may not come to that. But it’s definitely being discussed. And, the whole purpose of the letter is to “get people on the record before the election,” as the Conyers aide told me. This could be a moment where the plans of Democrats electorally runs headlong into plans for policy.
The letter is on the flip.
Dear Mr. President,
We write today to express our strong support for Social Security and our view that it should be strengthened. We oppose any cuts to Social Security benefits, including raising the retirement age. We also oppose any effort to privatize Social Security, in whole or in part.
You have charged the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform with proposing recommendations that improve the long-term fiscal outlook and address the growth of entitlement spending. It is our view that Social Security–which is prohibited by law from adding to the national budget deficit–does not belong as part of those recommendations.
By 2023, Social Security will have built up a $4.3 trillion surplus, and, without any action, can pay at least 75 percent of all benefits thereafter. Because Social Security is funded separately from the general treasury and has no borrowing authority, it has not contributed to the federal deficit. Despite these facts, some Commission members have repeatedly alleged the need to cut Social Security for budgetary reasons.
For 75 years, Social Security has been a promise to the American people that if they work hard and pay their fair share, they will have a financially secure retirement. In communities across this country, Social Security benefits are often the only source of income helping families maintain a decent standard of living. Social Security’s benefits are modest, averaging less than $13,000 a year, but they are vital to the vast majority of Americans who receive them.
Cutting Social Security benefits further than they are already being cut by raising the retirement age from 65 to 67 would create needless hardship for millions of vulnerable Americans. This is especially true in the face of an economic downturn that has wiped out trillions of dollars that Americans were relying on for their retirement security and the increased dismantlement of the private and public pension systems.
If any of the Commission’s recommendations cut or diminish Social Security in any way, we will stand firmly against them. We urge you to join us in protecting and strengthening Social Security rather than letting it fall victim to a misguided attempt to reduce budget deficits on the backs of working families.




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Yet another reason for referring to Raul Grijalva as the Worst Monster in the World. /s
And good for Dan Maffei, who has been close to Steny Ho’ in the past
but is in a tough reelection fight.
No disrespect to the CPC, but based on recent history any time a liberal line in sand is established, it seems like a fait accompli that it will be crossed. It’s a matter of “principle” to the DFH bashers.
This one might be the one line that can’t be crossed at the risk of throwing it all away. Why would the White House and Congress throw away their most reliable voters — the retiree segment of the population?
For once White House and Congress will have to ask themselves, “Do I want corporate money, or do I want votes?” This is the one time that they can’t have both — no corporate money is going to make screwing with older voters workable.
They want to see what kind of traction they get on the letter in the next couple weeks before committing to additional steps.
That’s the caveat. Waiting a couple weeks puts us that much closer to the elections. I think too many in Congress will use the “couple weeks” to figure out how to sign the letter without putting their money where their mouth is.. er, mouths are.
Recall the letter regarding the public option?
Remind me again: How did that whole progressive-in-congress thing work out with the Health Insurance Mandate And Preemptive Bailout Act?
Right.
They will whip the vote not only internally in the Progressive Caucus but throughout the Democratic caucus.
Grijalva needs to widen his gaze, he should have Caucus members approach Republican Members from their home states with a courtesy call. ‘Do you want to sign our letter or do you want your opponent back home to sign it?’
Leaving aside the fact no one running for office wants to cross seniors, Republicans will always appreciate any opportunity to foul up a White House plan. And if Republicans start signing, the Blue Dogs won’t be far behind.
Any Member, Republican or Democratic, who doesn’t sign…well a copy of the letter should be sent to their opponent (I suppose through a cutout for Democratic seats). Challengers could do worse than running as the defender of Social Security.
I like it. At last some movement to block those asses. This could be the issue that gets some people to the polls, or not if they do nothing. Those at or near retirement will go for it. What is there to be afraid of? the dems are now set to lose as many as 60 seats in the house. This is a signature program for the democrats and has been for 75 years. It should be expanded, not cut.
A bigger line to cross would be to promise to vote against all war and new financial bailout spending until Social Security is off the table, the Cat Food commission is sent home and we get real Healthcare.
Good thing we’ve got a progressive caucus that will stand by their promises and principles, right Congressman Kucinich? Maybe they’ll sign another pledge.
Standing firm, my ass. Go ahead Charlie Brown, Lucy’s changed. She really wants more than anything for you to send that football soaring.
What another beautiful election season set-up. Extortion at its finest.
I agree. This line in the sand may be more of a line in the concrete. It seems like the liberal caucus is the only group in DC that seems to know that cutting Social Security would still be political suicide. Everybody else just pushes their fingers further into their ears and sings “la, la, la, la…” even louder.
We should be talking about closing military bases abroad first and then if need be military bases in America before we cut Social Security.
We should talk about taxing pot at the federal level before we talk about cutting Social Security.
Tell me besides cutting Social Security has the Cat Food Commission explored any much less all alternatives to cutting Social Security like taxing the rich more?
If so I would love to read their research if they dare let voters see it that is. Tell me can Congress even see it?
This represents a “with us or against us” moment. We will see exactly whose side every Democratic member of the House is on.
Every Democrat should sign that letter. Frankly, those who don’t don’t belong in the Democratic party.
Tea Baggers are angry White Males with guns many on or about to be on Social Security anybody Dem or GOP votes to cut Social Security should worry about all the Right Wing gun violence lately for once the Baggers will have a target that will not cause mass revulsion among the majority of voters.
Once the Tea Baggers see shoot an immigrant everyone hates you shoot at Congressmen who cut Social Security your a folk hero.
Well serial Killers like the fame expect lots of copy cats lots more than a regular Right Wing shooting causes.
Even without any of that, all you have to do is raise the cap. Rich people slightly inconvenienced but problem solved.
Well said!
Can we play up the fear are the righty blogs aware SS might be cut if they are aware I would assume they are making threats against the government again.
We need to ask Congressmen GOP congressmen especially on tape if they are worried about all the right wing threats to Congress if they vote to cut SS.
We need them on tape saying I would never vote to cut SS before the election so if they betray us we can nail them.
Or we need them to say not worried still cutting SS.
If they run from the question double points we say they won’t answer the question but are so afraid of Right Wing shooters they run from answering that question on tape.
Trap Play anyway we play it we get what we want as long as our interviewer finishes the question in front of the Congressman or Senator.
Of course if a GOPer says no to cutting SS and then votes against the cat food commission then maybe we should think about recruiting them?
“Why would the White House and Congress throw away their most reliable voters …?”
The same logic would force one to ask why Obama appointed the commission and stacked it with anti-Social Security Democrats, and why Pelosi and Hoyer guaranteed it an up-or-down vote in which a Republican/BlueDog coalition will prevail.
Why the White House and Congress would do things that damage their electoral prospects is a serious question, not a rhetorical one. (“Stupid or evil?” It’s not just for Republicans anymore.)
As to the progressives, well, I enjoy a good sternly worded letter as much as the next person, but I’ve seen this movie before.
One step at a time. the Progressive Caucus threw away their credibility with that public option sell out. I think Grijalva gets it, they should have stuck to their guns– its a low place indeed when you’ve been outnegotiated by Mister “if we start towards the low end of that, we’ll see how it develops”.
They need a sure thing, a line in the sand for which the Caucus will, in Michael Armitage’s wonderful phrase, “dismount, kill the horses and fight on foot — this is not going to happen”. Their first task is to pressure every Member and challenger to sign that letter.
Yep….I remember all the signatures supporting the Public Option as well……..FOOEY!
Couldn’t agree more.
Majorities in BOTH the Senate AND the House AND the Presidency and here we are talking about fucking up SS.
Recently, people on this site have been called GUTLESS because they’re tired of the same old Kabuki and refuse to pay for another ticket to the show, yet WHO are the ones being herded off the ledge by FEAR via the theater being played out in the above drama?
If you vote for a gd democrat this November, they’ll still screw you over and then claim (in their best Harry Reid spineless wimper) “Well, we really couldn’t stop it, we just didn’t have the votes.” SEE THE FIRST SENTENCE ABOVE. Please read it until reality sets in.
Vote for them and they have a legitimate claim they represent you, retain their hold on power and continue to bleed you dry. This is a fight for political hegemony over the electorate. I will not be suckered, again. They do not represent the people of this country, they represent the moneyed interests.
I don’t know if it is just me but I see hardly any coverage in the MSM of the Cat Food Commission, Simpson, the seniors, vets and other groups pushing back against the CFC, etc. I think sometimes we are just talking to ourselves.
Bad, bad idea. Don’t discuss threats of violence with a federal official, even hypothetically, or the next public servant you meet will be an FBI agent.
I have been replying to requests for campaign support from my congress-critters with links and questions about articles like this.
Tell me what your position is and I might have the ability to support you as I did in the past.
Edit: Should of said desire to help.
Its not me doing the threats I’m a concerned citizen angry the Feds are letting these nuts spread lies and incite murder. I am wondering if the Feds will act to protect Congress. The Feds normally have no problem protecting GOPers and Dems who want to cut SS.
This time we are on the same side.
Wall Street. After Clinton left office, Goldman Sachs paid him $650,000 for four speeches. Citigroup paid him $250,000 for a single speech in France. This was a way to say “Thank you” for repealing Glass–Steagall, sidelining Brooksley Born, and trying to work out a deal with Newt Gingrich to cut Social Security. And by thanking old friends, they gain the favor of new ones.
Wall Street hopes that cuts in Social Security will force people to try their luck at the Wall Street Casino, where the house always wins. Anyone carrying Wall Street’s water will be richly rewarded with speaking gigs, consulting fees, etc. once they leave or get booted out of office.
It is not possible to express how little credibility the so called progressive caucus has with me. They are all either cowards or con men, maybe both.
All hail the sternly worded letter! Woohooooo! Things are really gonna change now!
After the election … “There’s nothing we could do. It’s all the Republicans’ fault. We didn’t have the votes …”
Could someone please tell me about the GOTV effort? I’m all fired up to make sure these Democrats stay in power! (/sarcasm)
We don’t need any more damn letters. If the CPC had any sense, they would be whipping votes now for a privileged resolution opposing any cuts to Social Security. This is a no-brainer, especially after they got rolled on the public option.
Exactly. You’ve summed it up beautifully.
Except that this is, and always has been despite what the GOP/Media Complex says, the true third rail. See Rayne.
Big whoop, they’ll have been against it before they are for it, like they were for single-payer then the public option before they voted against it. Obama already told us what he’s going to whip for when he set up the commission in the first place, then again when he loaded it with Hobin Roods.
Got an email this week from a leaning-rightie, seems they’re trying to stir up distraction over “Obama advisers pushing” some languishing legislation (intro’d in March, no cosponsors and no activity) calling for a 1% transaction tax to pay off the deficit and replace federal income taxes. Told him to use his breath to howl about SS cuts that WILL be pushed by the MOTUs.
No, no, no. You’re suggesting crossing the line between marketing and production. You can’t do that or else you’ll end up DOING the right thing instead of just baiting the hook./s
This is all nice and fine but lets not forget that the so-called Progressive Caucus has a long tradition of caving so their “lines in the sand” don’t really mean much! Actually, if they mean anything its that the line will be crossed.
Also, it will be easy for the forces of compromise (i.e. forces of surrender) in the Democratic Party to get a cut to the floor in both the House and Senate and once that’s done there are enough blue dogs and Republicans to get it passed.
Its nice that they are doing this but in reality it means absolutely, positively nothing.
I think it’s a sad state of affairs when the Democrats try to run as heroes for defending SS from a threat that originated with them rather than as heroes for trying to expand SS.
They will earn no goodwill from me for this. And, as has already been noted, it is not certain that they will even draw a line that can’t be erased and stepped over.
There’s a certain inevitability to it all, with the Cat Food Commission, merely a formality and preliminary to the main monkey business of raiding the the Social Security and Medicare larder. Sort of the way things have gone in financial and specific health care policy.
seriously, what is wrong with these people? would it have killed them to give the tax break to the employees?
idiots.
speaking gigs? LOL
Reagan and H W Bush first year out get million plus per appearance, Clinton gets standard speaker’s bureau fees of a couple of hundred thousand – hell in the early 80′s I was friends with some on Henry K’s various corporations (many maintained to avoid tax and reporting) and only a few of the speaker fees to our former Sec of State made it into the news – like the $250,000 from City for a 10 minute breakfast talk for senior exec’s made it into the news, but Henry spoke weekly somewhere and that was never reported. Clinton getting sub-standard wages post presidency is claimed by whom as the reason for decisions during his presidency – other than Fox news?
As to this “line in the sand” by the progressive caucus – I am in my “fool me once” mode. I have met a few elected progressives and they all appear to be sincere good folks – but then that is the name of the game – having the ability to appear honest – in politics. But I will still support Dems at the local, state, and congressional level – and even support Obama once he gives me JUST ONE reason to support him – but setting up an un-necessary fight over Social Security and then backing away is not going to be that reason – and if not backing away and actually cutting SS with no wage cap removal he will carve in stone my attitude toward 2012.
If the CPC were serious, as opposed to engaging in political theater, they would tell Pelosi that if Social Security cuts even make it to the floor for a vote, they will never again vote for her for any leadership position. If she is going to pull this bullshit, it’s time to let her lose her leadership position.
totally agree. the commission’s recommendations will help shield all involved that decide to shovel more of the nation’s wealth to the rich. any complaints to those elected officials that slash SS will be met with a shoulder shrug and mutterings about ‘well, this is, after all, what the commission advised, sorry.’
clinton came close to doing this, bush even closer, and now obama steps up to the plate, pinch hitting for our financial overlords.
Supply and demand. Clinton gave 352 speeches in 2006 alone. He could get paid a lot more if he made himself a bit scarcer.
And who cares if the Republicans are more corrupt, and thus more richly rewarded for serving the interests of the elite? Is that the new standard for the Democratic Party?
Finally, I think this might just reflect Democrats’ general lack of negotiating skills.
I pray to the gods you’re right and I also pray that our votes count enough to matter.
If this can get OUT into the public dialogue, it could really incentivize, not only the Dem base, but any senior who doesn’t wish to die of starvation and disease for lack of medical care.
NOBODY wants to lose their SS for a few more years of useless war.
I was just talking about this at my clinic today. any time I get the floor in a public place, my mouth starts going.
Yeah, but this is still the proverbial third rail. The PO…people didn’t really know what it was.
They sure know what SS is.
This is one time when I’ll allow myself to have hope that the progressive caucus won’t fold in the face of pressure from the WH or other Democrats. Unlike with health care where the Dems made the “progressives” look bad to their constituents by saying that millions would not receive the benefits of health care because of them, here what can they threaten? That the progressives will deny tax cuts to the billionaires on the Cat Food Commission? Stand tall, progressives in the House and Senate. You have nothing to lose but your wimpy image; you have all the votes in the world to gain!
Then where is the uproar? I heard more resistance from Rethugs when Bush mentioned privitizing SS. So far, too little. Will it also be too late?
How did this “commisson” devolve into just “entitlement” cuts? Obama billed it as “everything on the table”.
Well, then, get the HMOs out from between the government and the doctors/hospitals. That’s why Medicaid/ Medicare and every other program is going broke.
the doctors don’t even want to take health insurance anymore cause they wont pay, altho the premiums sure keep rising.
A friend of mine works ina care home for developmentally disabled adults. Our corrupt governor re-contracted with the private corporation after it had already shown bad faith in not paying providers ANYTHING for over a year. The gov fined them a million bucks ( I wonder where THAT went?) and then re-contracted with these thieves.
They are n ow paying my friend’s home care company 57% of costs and keeping the rest.
the company may leave the state and has cut back severely on jobs. Thsi is what is happening with “privatization” all over my state.
the governor also took all the stimulus $$$ for the state and made sure everyone in his government kept their jobs with it while they fired teachers and punked healthcare programs.
I’m terribly afraid this will lead to a victory for the awful republican running against his Lieutenant Gov.
Our governor is a Democrat who was nearly tapped by Obama for Commerce!!!!!!!
HE wrecked the state economy and he IS a pay to play kinda guy.
Media, Media, Media.
It’s only now getting out, Most people i talk to don’t even know this is happening or believe the lie that it’s the Republicans. How they can think the Republicans set up this commission when they’re supposedly not in power in beyond my powers of comprehension.
edit
PS: plus, it’s a SECRET
we need to try to get everyone we know to call their Reps. But, they just never have, why start now?
?
Yeah, and I bet it would be most informative to cross post the signers of this letter with the members of congress that vowed no health care bill would pass without the public option included.
Talk about epic fail time and time again — to lose in November to essentially a collective box of rocks would be the most abysmal and embarrassing political performance ever.
While I have absolutely no faith in any promise made by the CPC, and believe they will roll over like the good cocker spaniels they are the moment their President asks it, we may be fast approaching a tipping point in the history of the Democratic Party.
Liberals/Progressives/Independents are so disgusted with Obama’s pandering to Corporate America that his approval rating is comparable to Bush Jr.’s last 18 months in office. Every blog you read, even Obama fanboys like Great Orange Satan and Balloon Juice are allowing more posts critical of his governing – or lack thereof. Social Security “reform” will likely be the final nail in the coffin about Obama’s mystique, even for the most delusional of Obamabots.
The question then becomes, will the Dems have the balls to primary Obama in 2012? If they don’t, I can’t see the Dems surviving as a viable party because it will be clear to all but the corrupt that they have abandoned their core values. If they do, it will be a civil war for the soul of the party. After 30 years of Third way, DLC style-triangulation we Democrats have lost our way and need this fight badly.
Are you talking Richardson?
Horseshit. None of the cowards will go against Obama when the rubber meets the road.
YUP
Because with the spread of electronic voting that can be manipulated to have a pre-selected winner no matter how the vote goes and no paper trail to show otherwise they really don’t need voters except to placate everyone and make us believe we’re actually part of a process instead of just playing inconsequential roles.
Actually, I mis-wrote. the company is KEEPING 57%
maybe it would have…literally. I just keep thinking of what happened to JFK when he didn’t want to continue the Vietnam War and wanted to repeal the Federal Reserve Act.
Not if they keep believing the lie “the republicans did it” like this guy I talked to today…and he was fairly well informed for an old coot.
the truth will out, eventually. If a “Democratic” – majority Congress votes in favor of recommendations to raise the eligibility age, and a “Democratic” President signs that bill into law, how can anyone make the argument that Democrats are still the party of the people and not Republicans with a different name?
That, and “they didn’t cut benefits. They just raised the eligability age”.
I live in southeast Michigan. Believe me, that one will fly here.
Politico today.
Dentist buys Hillary Clinton 2012 ad
“A Chicago dentist is paying for a new ad advocating a presidential run for Hillary Clinton in 2012.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41741.html#ixzz0yU8zCGIw
It would appear Liberals/Progressives/Independents need to find their own candidate as soon as possible. Any ideas as to who a viable candidate might be ?
I agree that danger exists, especially for elections w/razor thin margins. Obama won by the largest margin since Clinton-Dole in ’96, and he won by tapping into popular anger with progressive rhetoric and imagery. That he is throwing this away with both hands leads me to believe he wants to be a one term president. Either that, or Rahm and him figure to bring in so much corporate cash by giving the money interests everything they want that it will let him buy the election in 2012.
Wow, I can’t think of anyone who would be willing to commit political suicide by trying to outrun the Democratic party at this time. Ever noticed what happens to third party candidates after their campaigns crash and burn? Anybody know whatever happened to John Anderson or Ross Perot after their non-elections? Nader, Nader, anyone?
Not so long ago I thought maybe Howard Dean, but his waffling on Park 51 has left me less than impressed. If it weren’t for the health issues I would go door to door for Edwards, Elizabeth Edwards. Have we forgiven Eliot Spitzer yet for his marital shortcomings? Anyone willing to go toe to toe w/ Wall Street is someone I’ll campaign for.
I have heard this before with the public option. I will believe it when I see it.
I also think Hillary would need to resign as SoS before the 2010 elections if she were serious, otherwise she will come off as an opportunist once the Dems become lame ducks in the House. Although she is more progressive than Bill I’m still not sold that she’s progressive enough.
It could very well be that whoever challenges Obama – if someone does at all – may not even be on the radar now and may come out of nowhere to do it. A strong Hispanic candidate would likely give Rahm and Obama kittens, especially if he has the progressive bona fides- and I’m not talking Bill Richardson in NM – maybe Villagaraiso in LA?
the republicans were a minor third party until all hell broke loose in the 1860 election and four parties put up candidates for President. If the Teabaggers ever slip Dick Armey’s leash (and if enough Libertarians join them they just might) anything can happen.
If we are serious about a third party then we need to patiently build one. I would suggest running in congressional races in progressive areas we can win in first while not necessarily running a presidential candidate initially. We could win on both coasts and cities like Denver/ Boulder, St. Paul, and thus have an affect- that is how the NDP operates in Canada, concentrating on the progressive (plains) provinces of Manitoba, Alberta, Saskatchewan, etc. And the NDP, a distant third in national elections, is responsible for single payer. I think that picking someone from the elite to run against Obamarahma, either in the democraven primary or as a progressive party candidate, would be a mistake and worse than pointless for the reasons Ann in AZ lists. If we want to do this we will need to start as a congressional party.
I also have doubts about any real possibility of Hilary leaving her current position as Secretary of State to challenge Obama in 2012 . If a campaign “To Draft Hilary” gets any kind of traction I think the more realistic questions to ask might be .
1. Would this move the Obama administration more to the right or left?
2. Will this encourage support for the current idea being floated to replace Biden on the 2012 ticket with Hilary.
My guess is it would give Obama an additional excuse to move more toward the corporate right than he has already done and it might also lock Hilary in as the Democratic Party candidate in 2016. My hope is that there will be push back from Progressives in the form of a candidate of their own to stop this from happening.
I think your suggestion that a strong Hispanic candidate could stand a chance is a good one.
Jesus! Doesn’t anybody recognize the combination of kabuki and mathematics when they see it?
The kabuki is that the vote on the Catfood Commission will come after the election.
The math is: GOPers + Defeated/Retiring Dems = enough votes to pass the cuts while the kabuki players get to cast a symbolic but meaningless “no” vote.
The only way to kill this thing is to force the disbanding of the Catfood Commission before the election. Any other tactic is destined to fail.
Unfortunately I think you are 100% correct.
Amd that cute “up or down” vote doesn’t even depend on a full house being there. there could be 30 Reps and it could pass….over the proverbial Christmas recess.