Today’s announcement of a $200 billion dollar program to allow businesses to write off their capital expenditures up front in 2010 and 2011 at full cost (which would only cost $30 billion in the long run) hasn’t received the widest reception from the economic profession, as the NY Times’ Economix blog notes. I’ve already mentioned Robert Reich’s take, where he says that precisely what businesses might use the credit on would be the types of automation equipment that would leave Americans out of a job:
Republicans and corporate lobbyists have been demanding tax cuts on corporate investments for one reason: Big corporations are investing in automated equipment, robotics, numerically-controlled machine tools, and software. These investments are designed to boost profits by permanently replacing workers and cutting payrolls. The tax breaks Obama is proposing would make such investments all the more profitable.
On the other side of the spectrum, Republican economists, the natural constituency for such a business tax break, either lament the temporary nature of the credit or make points like Harvard’s Gregory Mankiw:
Notice that expensing merely accelerates deductions. Thus, the value to the firm depends on interest rates. With interest rates near zero, the impetus to investment is small. Put another way, this policy can be seen as giving firms a zero-interest loan if they invest in equipment. But with interest rates near zero anyway, the value of the loan is not that great.
Because it just accelerates the deductions, we can expect the highest activity around this expenditure, to maximize cash flow and the opportunity cost of money, to come at the end of the credit, not the beginning. So while the Administration thinks making the tax write-off retroactive to tomorrow’s announcement will spur immediate purchases, we could more likely expect the maximum impact to come at the end of 2011, making this not exactly a timely measure.
Finally, Calculated Risk tackles the question of whether insufficient investment is really the problem right now:
This is basically a large sounding proposal ($200 billion) with little impact. With excess capacity in most sectors, why do we want to incentivize companies to invest anyway?
If you believe that the problem with the economy is a lack of demand, incentivizing immediate investment doesn’t completely solve that problem. Small businesses continue to ask why they should expand their operations without more sales. You may be able to get a virtuous circle of businesses purchasing capital investments from other businesses, but a lot of that could leak out overseas. In short, there are probably a lot of better ways to create jobs, even within the narrow scope of tax cuts (a payroll tax holiday probably gets you more bang for the buck).
Not everyone has panned the business tax cut approach (Ryan Avent seems to like it), but it hasn’t won universal acclaim, either.
UPDATE: Not much more love for the R&D tax credit, either.




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Nothing that Obama proposes will ever be enough for any Republican leaning economists (who are apparently the only ones he might listen to)
Since Wall Street has already left for the Republicans, to which constituency is Obama appealing with this?
Summers, Geithner and Bernanke.
So he’s potentially picked up three votes for Dems in 2010.
The WH should announce Rahm’s leaving. That would probably pick them up a couple million votes right there.
All of the measures that the ORahma admin dream up seem like sops to the Republics & businesses big and small, but really make no sense if no one’s buying anything.
Per usual, Rahmbama tosses out some kind of bone, but who can figure out why or what the bone is for. Just makes ‘em look durn boneheaded in the end.
Nothing for the small peeps, and nothing that really matters for anyone. Same old, different day. Nothing to see here folks, move along now.
More production without demand! You’ve hit upon something there.
And I’m sure all of the OFAs at DailyKos.com will clap louder…
Maybe Obama & WH staff don’t know what the heck they are doing……has anyone seen how the GOP are slowly but surely going to let Obama keep fumbling…with even more tax cuts for the wealthy….eventually cutting taxes for the rich is going to be a Dem Party position…..Obama is slowly being reeled in…shameful.
It’s what happens when you have no real idealogical position….Just look at what he did with Women’s right on HCR….
Rahm = failed ridiculous presidency. Next.
You suck totally in every possible way, Rahm, and I’ll be glad to have the pukes give me Biden.
Shame on you too, Obama, despite your nonexistence except as a spokesmodel.
As I’ve said here before, the only way that you can think that a business tax cut in times of extremely uncertain consumer spending will lead to businesses hiring more labor is if you’ve never been involved with running a business. It is really stupid for your bottom line to take money the government is handing back to you and adjust labor when almost everyone is failing to predict consumer spending accurately from month to month.
The smart thing to do is to sit on that money. One common way, as Reich points out, is to invest in machines that prevent you from having to adjust your payroll no matter whether times stay bad or get better. That is, if there’s a machine you can turn on and off or only run sometimes and that saves you money anyway, it’s a lot safer bet in bad times than a worker who you might have to fire next month or next year.
As all of these lobbyists and many of these officials have been involved in business, I have to assume that they are simply not telling the truth.
You know, I go over to dkos ever once in awhile to take a peak. I get the impression it died some time back and now it’s just lying in the middle of the road, rotting.
Can anybody imagine Rahm as a mayor? You have to actually listen to and do stuff for people- practical stuff like make sure garbage gets picked up and potholes are fixed.
Still, while I’d feel sorry for Chicagoans if Rahm ran for mayor and won, it couldn’t hurt to get him out of the WH. Not that I think Rahm is the reason for all Obama’s disappointments, but I suspect that when Obama might be tempted to do the right thing, Rahm pushes him the other way.
And, then, if he failed as mayor, maybe that would do us all the favor of getting him out of politics and political influence for good. One can hope, anyway.
Reich thinks the purpose is some eleventy-dimensional chess thing:
which is the same as cutting off your nose to spite your face. But I think the real reason is the most obvious: this isn’t some clever feint, Obamarahma really does want to cut all taxes on the wealthy.
I don’t disagree….seems very likely.
GOOD NEWS!!!
I just read that Rahm wants the job of mayor of Chicago.
I think that may be exactly what is happening here. Obama doesn’t know how to govern; Rahm doesn’t know how either and Reid has no control over the Senate at all.
Like it or not, the extension of the 179 write-off is necessary at this time.
That’s what I think it is too. I don’t really see how supposedly giving Republicans everything they want will somehow disarm Republicans. That 11th dimensional way of thinking is like saying to hand criminals your wallet so that way they can’t rob you. These hundreds of billions in corporate tax cuts do nothing except improve the bottom line, but they don’t actually stimulate the economy – the problem is there’s too much capacity right now and all this is doing if anything is creating even more of capacity glut.
This is just more pushing on string.
OK. Here’s the tea-reading. Economic policy is presently being made by Rahm, who knows nothing about economics, but thinks he can finesse the Republicans with some goodies or at least paint them into a corner. Economic policy is no longer being driven by anything distantly connected to economic science (an oxymoron). I think that’s why Christie quit. It was just too damn frustrating, because she couldn’t get her message to the President. Don’t know where Summers stands on all this. Maybe he’s still angling for Treasury, and figures Geithner will be the fall guy for a November catastrophe.
Christ! What a country! Don’t you love it?
This is another idea Bush would have proposed had he had a third term.
I thought a Democrat was elected in 2008. I must be mistaken.
Come to the anticapitalist meetup over on dailykos.com, every Sunday at 3pm Pacific/ 6pm Eastern Time.
Republicans and Democratsare pushing Tax cuts that will do little to improve life for the majority of working class.Put the Tax cuts to a few for there sucess or we could give Tax breaks to business that pay liveable wages includeing retirement and healthcare.For business into welfair labor[employers who do not pay liveable wages]fines and fees to cover there employee at the time of retirement or disablity.
So – take 200 billion, divide by 50k/yr/person, and you have 4 million jobs. Make the jobs producing solar and wind generators, and guarantee that the govt will buy a certain number for govt buildings and other city center stuff(chargers for electric vehicles at parking meters comes to mind) and you have real stimulus that will pay dividends over 30 years.
Gifting rich corporations with billions of tax dollars is like pushing on a rope – they won’t build factories HERE with those $$$, but Asia will love it!
Just how would a CapEx tax cut stimulate the economy when most of the products that a company might but are made off shore?