Though I will continue to criticize those who use creative accounting to claim that TARP “worked,” I cannot say the same for the stimulus package. You can legitimately claim that the stimulus was too small – it was, and we’re facing the political consequences of that to this very day. What you cannot claim is that the stimulus didn’t succeed in its (too limited) aims – to create or save millions of jobs, and to lay down long-term investments for the future. You would be wise not to accept everything in a White House report on a White House program, but this is largely correct:
The massive economic stimulus package President Obama pushed through Congress last year is coming in on time and under budget – and with strikingly few claims of fraud or abuse – according to a White House report to be released Friday [...]
By the end of September, the administration had spent 70 percent of the act’s original $787 billion, which met a White House goal of quickly pumping money into the nation’s ravaged economy, the report says. The administration also met nearly a dozen deadlines set by Congress for getting money out the door.
Meanwhile, lower-than-anticipated costs for some projects have permitted the administration to stretch stimulus money further than expected, financing an additional 3,000 projects, according to the report.
Despite the speedy spending, the report says that stimulus contracts and grants have so far been relatively free of the fraud charges that plague more routine government spending programs. Complaints have been filed on less than 2 percent of awards under the program.
Now, you can credibly argue that a program meant to stimulate the economy by raising demand coming in under budget is a bad thing. But from a political standpoint, the stimulus was managed carefully and responsibly, as it had to be. The waste and fraud charges became a dog that didn’t bark. And the money got out into the economy in the manner prescribed.
Because of the minimal nature of the funds, it would have been better if more of the programs in the stimulus were devoted to direct jobs programs like the TANF Emergency Fund, a huge bang-for-your-buck program that created 250,000 jobs with just over $2 billion in funds per year. Now that program has been terminated, which will lead to thousands of unnecessary layoffs. The future of stimulus needs to be in programs like this, including bringing the TANF Emergency Fund back on line.
What we don’t need are contractionary measures that will inhibit growth and paradoxically increase the deficit. Only job creation will balance the budget.
The stimulus actually proves that point, and more Democrats should be crowing about it, while insisting that more gets done. It’s a tricky two-step, but also a necessary one.
UPDATE: Let me agree with Matt that the future policy I’d most like to see is a mechanism to stop the anti-stimulus from happening in cash-strapped states that have to cut services or raise taxes to balance their budgets. We need some kind of automatic stabilizer program to counteract that. I know I wrote about that back in 2009, but I can’t find it at the moment.




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How do we know there was little or no fraud? The Rs haven’t gotten in power yet, and when they do they’ll find the fraud whether it exists or not.
The Republics won’t miss a chance to inject their own fraud while hiding behind the smoke screens of endless investigations.
And the Ds will look forward, not backward.
How much of the stim was tax cuts?
Chairman Issa begs to differ.
Did Bush’s wars come in with little or no fraud? Where were the teabaggers then, when Bush was giving tax cuts to the rich and then giving away taxpayer dollars to bail out the rich, all while not paying for two wars, one of which was definitely wrong and unnecessary?
If the corporatocracy is going to globalize business and use price competition to drive down American wages, we deserve more entitlement programs not fewer. We deserve free health care, education, and pensions to make up for the lost wages. Either that or prohibit trade with nations that pay less than the American minimum wage. You can’t just globalize one side of the equation. More stimulus. More internet based transparency. Keynes was right.
“You can legitimately claim that the stimulus was too small – it was, and we’re facing the political consequences of that to this very day. What you cannot claim is that the stimulus didn’t succeed in its (too limited) aims – to create or save millions of jobs, and to lay down long-term investments for the future.”
If it succeeded in its stated aims, we’d be at most 8% unemployment. There’s more than just political consequences to this as this about the lives of millions of unemployed people, not just what’s going to happen to some congresscritters.
I think part of what helped this was the stimulus bill’s emphasis on “shovel ready” projects – funding projects that had already been approved, but needed money. That would tend to eliminate one of the biggest producers of waste in government – haste. Nothing wastes money faster than a program with vague goals that’s been whistled up in a hurry.
With the exception of the tax cuts, I think the stimulus was about as effective as you could expect it to be, given that it was too small be at least a factor of two.
We all agree (maybe with hindsight) that the stim should have been more by half anyway – -kinda what Romer wanted. I have never understood though how one goes about calculating how much you need. I’m sure you use some form of multiplier. But you are always looking in the rear view mirror and things were getting worse, not stable. The problem here was (a) not going for the larger amount suggested by Romer and/or (b) not going back for more months ago. Now it appears too late. It’s a terrible situation. We are headed back to the Bush years only worse.
I am wondering why the stimulus should not just stay with the government and then they put out help wanted signs and hire contractors to do infrastruture work or green jobs, etc. – - any job where we are sure the work does NOT go out of country and where the money goes to local contractors and NOT multi nationals. why give the stim to anyone else and for anything else?
No fraud found….is anyone suprised at this?/?
I read that in LA $100 million produced 50 jobs….thats fraud.
Stimulus??? Where have all your progressive minds gone??
Stimulus, that was supposed to be the answer?
Stimulus, double ?? what would it have done?
To big to fail? says who?
Progressives haven’t even questioned that ideology.
Economy…….Economists…….liberal or conservative??
All based on the Market…..keep the ticker tape gaining.
None of these economists ever tell you…that
without the war, and the weapons contracts……the market would crash.
every job in America….dependent on perpetual war.
that is why we can not and will not stop it.
no matter our feel good peace talk, we are trapped by the stock market
and the Military Employment Economic Complex.
Nobody or No Corporation is To Big To Fail…….Anyone that swallowed
that is part of the problem…..
The Wars…..to much unemployment to stop….
On TARP, I confess to thinking of it as 700b when it was likely a lot more than that when you add in the guarantees. But without it I wonder if we would’ve awoken one day to find no money at the bank and no one taking credit cards. If that had happened, I guess you could resort to second amendment rights to get the groceries. And I suppose Toyota can make the same cars that GM and Chrysler does, just a little more unemployment. OH wait, no one would be working. The alterative was to nationalize the banks but then there was no time for that either, and we sure as hell should have taken away the obscene bonuses at the time.
When I think of banks I think of “its a wonderful life” with James Stewart. If there is a run on the banks, no one gets paid. You need to print money, which we did, in essence, and restore confidence. So yeah it had to be done. I have no idea if they paid it all off yet.
Of course, maybe it was all a joke and there was no financial crisis.
we are Nationalizing Banks almost every friday. There is no panic. Gov. steps in, guaranties solvency and starts acting on behalf of the people whom it allegedly represents.
Stimulus………throw money at a problem……..but the problem
remains……….
Don’t worry……..A U S T E R I T Y……………………………….
will solve the problem. Capitalism is saved once again……………….
Nov 2nd sould be called P R E T E N D …D A Y……………………..
“Oh, I don’t know what to do, Obama is a socialist and Palin is a Nazi..
me oh my, what to do.”
I truly hope the successful aspects of this federal stimulus is discussed in every economics textbook that is used in colleges and universities.
I’m kind of tired reading the same old stale tired neoclassical propaganda of how government is “not good at picking winners when investing money” or “can’t do anything right with tax dollars” and “therefore should lower taxes” and “stay out of the economy”.
On a side note: I wonder if any economics textbook authors who adhere to the mentality I just described ever met a venture capitalist. From my experience, most venture capitalists have a success rate of 10% at the very best — that’s not really a record worth writing home about either.
What were the successful aspects of this stimulus?
A postponement of the inevitable?
I hope every economics textbook writes ha ha ha, after “To Big To Fail”.
They plan on taking away much more than they gave.
They owe Social Security trillions of dollars, that is our money.
They didn’t give anything, and they are going to wipe the
INTERGOVERNMENTAL DEBT CLEAN…….ZIP….
that is money they borrowed from OUR SOCIAL SECURITY FUND…OUR MONEY..
That is what your man Obama and his friend Simpson are doing…….
the final theft of social security…and you can’t stop it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
INTERGOVERNMENTAL DEBT. Money the government borrows from itself.
and the CLINTON SURPLUS MYTH……
Clinton left office with a 5.7 trillion dollar deficit.
Increased borrowing from Social Security is how deficits were magically
transformed into surpluses under President Clinton.
The mythical Clinton Surpluses came from BORROWED MONEY,
meaning they weren’t surpluses at all, they were deficits.
(from SS..and they are not going to pay it back…AUSTERITY..get used to it
onemore @ 17
“Clinton left office with a 5.7 trillion dollar deficit.
Increased borrowing from Social Security is how deficits were magically
transformed into surpluses under President Clinton.”
be kind and link.
Problem with Buba is that he seeded the condition we find ourselves in with Nafta and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. – Fucker, but hey, the most popular politicall figure in America!
The majority of our politicians wouldn’t notice fraud even if it smacked them in the face repeatedly.
That’ said, we do need government spending/investment in the economy.
I guess that means we need some new politicians.
There’s no fraud just because the money went out the door at a record pace and no one involved complained?
By that standard, TARP and TARP 2 were the “least-fraudulent” spending programs in American history.
It’s a White House report, of course it’s going to tout the mythical success of the various stimuli. We’ll just have to take their word for it that there’s been virtually no fraud or failure when the opposite is true in virtually every government program from ag subsidies to Medicare to defense contracting. Wouldn’t it be just as efficient and effective to leave paper bags full of C-notes on street corners and park picnic tables?
The tip of the iceberg on fraud is all that we have seen in regard to finance. Those companies were covering their asses…so you would not know the amount of fraud from past. One more “collusion” on Obama’s part. They made money and the deal was in long before Obama came to office.
Mundane, two-word response to neoliberal propaganda: fire department.