The new Republican House is likely to run into a brick wall in the Senate on most issues. Sure, they’ll try to repeal the health care law, but would need 13 Democrats in the Senate to join them on that. They have Darrell Issa and his subpoena power, and he’s likely to be quite effective, but that’s not legislation so much as a sideshow tent.
But where Republicans will try to make headway is through the appropriations process. On health care, Mitch McConnell basically laid out the prospects of de-funding the health care law if they can’t get their way on repeal. Congress would have to affirmatively pass appropriations, so a roadblock or veto pen doesn’t work in this context.
If Obama should veto laws repealing the health care overhaul, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says, the House should cancel funding for its programs. As for the Senate, he says that senators should vote against what he calls the law’s “most egregious provisions.”
In remarks prepared for a speech Thursday to the conservative Heritage Foundation, McConnell says it’s all part of the effort to deny Obama a second term in the White House in 2012.
I don’t see a way forward on that, but in McConnell’s remarks on raising the debt limit, a failure to do which could set off a global financial panic, you can see how he’ll try: through brute intimidation and threats.
In an interview with Fox News this evening, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress would not vote to increase the nation’s debt ceiling — legislation that must pass to avoid a global economic panic — without “strings.” Those strings could be attached to anything, including health care legislation.
John Boehner, when asked about this at yesterday’s Republican press conference, said he would be “working that out over the next couple of months.”
There’s some thought to getting the debt limit increased in the lame duck session, but I doubt they would be able to pass something on the order of $2 trillion dollars, enough to provide a cushion through the entire 112th Congress. That’s not typically how it works. Anyway, they’d need the support of two Republicans in the Senate (Mark Kirk will replace Roland Burris for the lame duck), along with Ben Nelson and Joe Manchin (who replaces Carte Goodwin). I think it’s a numbers problem as much as anything, along with the fact that Mitch McConnell will put the screws to anyone in his caucus who even thinks about taking away this bargaining chip.
This is very dangerous. Failure to raise the debt limit may be something the Treasury Department can paper over for a little while, but aside from some essential government functions shutting down, it runs the risk of eventual default or just a loss in confidence from investors. The effects could be catastrophic. That’s the kind of grenade McConnell and the Republicans like to have in their hands. They’re going to want something in return for not blowing up the entire global economy. Nobody yet knows what that will be.
UPDATE: To be sure, Obama has some leverage in this as well. He could threaten to veto anything, including cherished tax cuts, that doesn’t pay for itself, and have a pretty good argument to make to the public (even though the economy needs some unpaid-for spending right now). I could see a debt limit-for-tax cut extension possibility, which would be stupid but probably the least harmful world at this point.
UPDATE II: This is what leadership means to McConnell:
“While clearly the election did not transfer full control of the government to the opposition, it is the first step in changing the direction of what we have been doing in Washington,” McConnell said. Republicans will “work with the administration when they agree with the people and confront them when they don’t,” McConnell warned.
And who decides when the Administration agrees with the people? Mitch McConnell. Furthermore, this is what they said when they were in the deep minority, too.
UPDATE III: President DeMint on this:
King: A question first on what comes ahead. Many have said that now that the Republicans have the house and more conservatives in the Senate, when will we know if you’re serious about keeping your promises about spending and the debt. If there is a vote in the congress on raising the debt ceiling, so that the government can continue to print money and spend money should the Republicans say no?
DeMint: I think Republicans will say no. Unless the raising of the debt ceiling is accompanies by some dramatic spending cuts, something that will direct us to a balanced budget in the future, Republicans will not support an increase in the debt limit.





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Government shutdown! I love it! This past election essentially shows the below average intelligence of most people in America. They wanted crazy? Well, they are going to get exactly what they voted for!
Most Americans do not want ObamaCare.
It is a monstrosity and should be killed. Makes us buy crap insurance and get less for our money. Makes us buy drugs that cost 5-10 times what they cost in other nations.
HCR was a disaster and its death would be welcome by most.
It wont be black mail. The Republicans will say jump and every Democrat including the Pres will say, ‘how high?’. This country is screwed . . . again.
Hasn’t Obama already given this chip away? He said he would not veto extending tax cuts that included a cut for the rich, no?
Obamacare was easy to understand. That Vampire should have been staked through the heart in committee and never seen the dead of night. I am talking about so-called free trade, job outsourcing, where the truly named Republicans are firmly in lockstep with the Republicanized Democrats with taking the livelihoods from Americans but they voted for those scumbags anyway. That below average intelligence………………
This whole situation brings to mind what happened in the French Revolution, when the Estates General had the monarchy over a barrel because it was bankrupt. The assembly refused to authorize any new taxes or loans until a new constitution had been drafted. Blackmail pure and simple. It worked, but the cost was state bankruptcy down the line combined with a hair-raising hyperinflation. The Republicans have Obama square in their sights. If this were a parliamentary democracy, he would already be out. As it is, they are going to be like a cat with a damaged mouse.
The Republicans can effectively hold up the entire social security net of the United States by threatening to bring down the world economy through a sovereign default. The only way Obama can beat that threat is by refusing to cave until the financial sector pulls the rug on the Republicans. This is very high-stakes politics. Hard to see anything higher. If Obama is a chess player (which we all thought but are now doubting, or to use a more appropriate metaphor, a high-stakes poker player, he has to go the limit and call their bluff. Does he have the balls to do this? Does the country have the balls. The pressure will be enormous.
There is one last point here. If the Republicans succeed, our democracy is effectively over. I would expect a military takeover of the government to prevent a repeat of blackmail that threatens the military security of the United States. We are getting very close to the end game that Norske Flamethrower predicted.
I for one will be glad if the don’t raise the debt limit, it might actually get our government to fall bassackwards into realizing the only purpose to debt financing its spending is to provide a means of welfare to the banking sector.
Post-election remarks uttered by McConnell made Boehner’s comments seem almost statesmanlike by comparison. We’re sinking deep into some kind of parallel hell.
I don’t think McConnell will make good on his threats to cause a global financial shutdown. It’s red meat to the Tea Party and can make Obama blink. But it’s poison for 2012. Obstructionism falls to the minority.
McConnell’s rhetoric is designed to structure the terms of the ‘strings’ which is really another way to make sure the tax cuts are universally extended for a start. It won’t be the end. But the debt ceiling extension can only be used as a threat a finite number times so it is a good idea to use it wisely.
The global economy will generate tremendous pressure should the Republicans seriously interfere with its (sort of) smooth functioning. This won’t matter to the Republicans but it will to their corporate masters. Money makes the world go ’round. When the world doesn’t spin, the money stops. Europe is already sounding the alarm about the relation between the new ‘fiscal responsibility’ of the Republicans and how it will effect the value of the dollar.
There will be a lot of Republican hot air but it is posturing. They did learn something from ’96′
Obama is a gutless fakir and Corp. shill who will do as he’s directed or else.
At this point – in terms of the debt limit – whether we like it or not, the planet’s populations are now in thrall to the corporations and Oligarchs. What happens with this will be up to them, not to either branch of the one-party system that we’ve got going here. Let’s face, nearly all of these pols are idiots anyway. WTF do they really know? Not much.
The Oligarchs will rule on this one, and the only thing we “small” people can do is hope that some sort of sanity will prevail… which it might because it has to do with money and the ability to keep making it.
If it was up to ReTHUGS, they’d happily crash everything if they thought they could benefit in some weird short-sighted way. I do believe the Oligarchs – greedy and gluttonous as they are – probably don’t see crashing everything as a good idea… at least one hopes so.
Heh.
If Obama is a chess player (which we all thought but are now doubting, or to use a more appropriate metaphor, a high-stakes poker player, he has to go the limit and call their bluff.
Obama is a poker player. Unfortunately, his chips are paid for with someone else’s money, and that someone else is at the table, telling him how to play his cards.
Great points, and what did happen to Norske? He hasnt been on here in while.
Though I don’t expect him to, O should call their bluff. He should say “Go ahead, try to shut it all down.”
America Inc. and its corporate masters will not let anything reduce their precious subsidies. War makers, drug makers, chemical makers, finance, agriculture, oil, and many more rake in big bucks from government. They won’t let their lapdogs take away that honeypot to any significant extent.
The repubs are counting on the fact that O and the Dems are complete idiots, with no real grasp of reality. O and the Dems will likely fall for the trick, and will roll over, perhaps in the hope that Boehner and McConnell will rub their bellies and Fox News will start to play nice.
I say, call their bluff. If the repubs go through with it, how long will they be able to show their faces outdoors? Call their bluff. This country will fare better with a Greater Depression than with Republican Authoritarian Theology for the next 20 years.
Will never happen.
How quaint that the republicans could de-fund a social program (even one as fucked-up as the healthcare reform bill that Obama inflicted on us…) but the democrats can’t—excuse me—couldn’t: defund one or both of the two clusterfucks, with a bigger House majority than the GOP has.
and to provide killing toys for the generals.
the elites fear RAND PAUL and his followers greatly, these are not normal conservatives, they have a lot of hate toward the FED.
the funny thing about all of this, is at the end of the day the elites are going to need progressives to help stop their nutcases from destroying the USA.
remember this new breed of GOP follower is more Pay Buchnanan, some of these people hate the USA empire, and they love state rights, and they love to wrap themselves in the FLAG a lot.
the RAND PAULs of the world follow ALEX JONES, enemy number one of the ELITES.
this can get very interesting!!!
So, we’re negotiating with terrorists again?
“Call their bluff…”
I fear not, good Smilodon. :o)
The time for bluff-calling was about 20-odd months ago, and THEN, all the republicans had to do was whisper the word “filibuster” into Mr. Centrist’s ear, for him lay a pantsload.
Now, I have serious doubts about the will of the president who rolls over and pisses himself at the word “FOX!” to do any calling of bluffs.
And let’s be honest. Now, we can’t really call them bluffs, anymore. The numbers are there.
Gridlock might be the best we can hope for. Of course, that will ensure that Barack Obama has NO chance at a second term.
Pretty good silver lining, my 2C. :o)
Does the debt limit apply to the military budget? Would the Republicans really risk defunding the troops?
Ha! Like he’ll ever try to use any leverage against Republicans. That’s for recalcitrant Dems and if they later lose their Senate seat for caving to him? Well, that’s their problem isn’t it?
As for the Health Insurance Company and Pharmaceutical Welfare and Giveaway Act, I cannot and will not buy a crappy product for an inflated price anyway.
Heckuva job Rahm.
Barack Obama
Might
AS
Well
Be
Bush
…but will Obama push back on a potential or actual government shut-down the way Clinton did? I seriously doubt it.
The terrorists in the previous administration flattened three buildings in lower Manhattan. Since we settled with a bogus 9/11 Commission, we’ve been negotiating with the same terrorists ever since.
sounds like it
“So, we’re negotiating with terrorists again?”
:o)
And when it comes to negotiating with GOP terrorists who’s better at it than the man who just led us to an overwhelming victory over them.
Metaphorically speaking, he’s gonna spend the next two years walking around with a suitcase-sized nuke hanging out of his ass.
Doesn’t refusing to raise the debt limit give Obama tremendous power? He would have to choose what to cut. He could easily terminate the war on terror and blame it on the republicans.
That is precisely how the Vietnam War ended. Could the Rethugs be peaceniks in disguise?
I say the first offer is always the best offer. If Republicans want to re open the health care debate – then let’s go for single payer.
Calling Dr. Dean and the 50 state strategy
I am embarrassed for the voters of Wisconsin.
And Shrub is going on tour to rehab himself?????? Let’s be as vicious as e can.
Obviously the Republican Party’s stated intention of repealing the Health Affordability Act chills the confidence of those with health risk factors, essentially everyone upper middle aged or higher, that they will be freed from being monopolisitically locked into one coverage contract, regardless of the premium the insurer conjures up, that contract’s availability confined to one state. Among the consequences is a complete brake on movement between states by persons on independent plans. A simple failure to fund the act, the Republican’s realistic secondary intention, would essentially yield similar consequences.
To see what would happen if they privatize Social Security, just see what’s happening already to all who made good decisions and retired successfully.
Many or most feeling tax-locked in variable rate annuities, they’re seeing payments slashed to the bone by way of Bernanke’s minimal interest rate policy aimed at feeding the shadily and shoddily run money center banks.
http://sites.google.com/site/evernewecon
If history is any guide, Not. Even. Close. Bud. That wouldn’t be all warm and bipartisany.
Anyone have an opinion on what specific provisions Republicans would attempt to repeal from Obamacare? I’m still not convinced they really want to do this. The meaningless political theater of impeachment proceedings seems more likely to me.
No. Shit. Katherine.
Goood post! :o)
Hey, Mitch… try blackmail all you want – you’ll get NOTHING..AND, the voters will see EXACTLY who is responsible….
YOU, SCUMBAG !!!
I agree with your logic of letting the government shutdown. Obama cannot cave in by letting the republicans have their way without any desire to compromise on the issues facing the country. The country is spit down the middle and cannot survive anyway if any one side wants the whole pie for themselves. This will be the only way that Americans will wake up and come together when faced with the reality that all will be lost.
the GOP has no intention to really attack and destroy the Bob Dole, MITT ROMNEY health care bill we call OBAMACARE
what they want to do is more sinister, and OBAMA the trojan horse probably likes the idea, they want to make progressive democrats defend a bill liberal and conservatives hate. (the idea is to hurt progressives in 2012)
Obama and the GOP probably will try to destroy public education, sorta like what Clinton done with welfare in 1994, again Obama thinks that GOP voters like him, the big question is will Dems sit back and watch Obama the trojan horse wreck the NEW DEAL. (I have a feeling some dems want to win in 2012)
after losing 66 seats tuesday, how many dems in congress are going to support the white house agenda
another big problem OBAMA has is 47% of his base wants him out of the white house, and some Dems actually want to win in 2012
OBAMA biggest fear is will he be tied to Clarence Thomas! (Obama wants to be love by all, when one look at him yesterday, you saw a man that had been receiving a lot of four letters words from his peers)
I kind of find this story odd since Mitch is NOT the Majority leader. The Dems are in the majority. I’d like to know what steps the Dems are preparing to foil these Thuglicans. The only tool Bitch has is to Obstruct and cause a govt shutdown. Now that would mean big problems for the Rethuglicans.
Oh I don’t expect O to call their bluff. I expect he will do their bidding as usual. But the point remains – corporate America is likely to stop any significant shutdown if they will be adversely affected by it.
Obama, in his unending quest for corporate money, could side with the corporations and help stop the Republican attempt(s) at shutdown. That would temporarily please the corporations, and they might rub Obama’s belly for a while as a reward. Obama could make the Republicans own the whole thing, and he wouldn’t have to work very hard to do it.
Or, Obama could roll over for the Republicans. The Republicans will proceed to double-cross him, and “limited shutdowns” will ensue anyway: Education, Parks, Libraries, H&HS, and other “liberal commie pinko” things will get shut down; but not war, banks, oil, agribiz, or other “patriotic real America” things. Obama will take the fall for it in the eyes of the public, the MSM will avidly help that along, and Obama will also receive the ire of the corporations that were affected by the limited shutdowns.
It saddens me to foresee that Obama will take the stupid road. He will do what the Republicans tell him to do, will work very hard for them in fact, thus further damaging liberals and progressives. The only reason I care what Obama does is because ultimately this is a Republican attack against me and every other progressive, liberal, and left-leaner in the country.
Obama and the Democratic leadership seem intent on taking the nation and the world further into the nightmare of corporate dictatorship. I’m just trying to make an educated guess for the sake of my own future.
“Shrub is going on tour to rehab himself.”
It’s the new political climate! Global-warming forgiveness for double-digit IQ war criminals.
I mean, really! Did you see where Ed Rendell, exiting the Pennsylvania State House, appeared on MSNBC and deposited a tidy little steaming heap of shit with a little sign stuck in it, titled:
“Poor Colin Powell! Let’s get him out of steerage and offer him a spot on the bridge of the Titanic!”
He pretty much got laughed off the set by Maddow & Co. Maybe he was just doing it for comic relief on a night when our dear Centrist president was getting his political ass handed to him two short years after an historic landslide win.
But that’s how it goes…the winners get to define the political battlefield…especially when the President of the United States has been AWOL for 22 months.
Jedi’s right. The GOP has no intention of destroying the man who engineered the fastest rehab job in our nation’s history, on a party that had fucked up everything they touched.
Viz: Aint gone be no serious impeachment effort. Why on earth would the repubs want to run against a “new” Joe Biden when they can leave Obama sitting in a White House that is emptied of furniture and friends, and down to it’s last ounce of political clout?
How much money did the Republicans get from big business?
They will not crash the economy when Wall Street is making record profits. Unlike some other politicians, they know not to bite the hand that feeds them.
None.
Their rhetoric has been to first repeal the whole thing, then start over. Of course, they would never actually get around to starting over, too many other important things on their plate, you see.
Passing “repeal the whole thing” bills in the House is free political points to show their base that they are tough. None of it will survive the Senate.
They could slip various provisions in other bills to poison them, but they will get stripped out in the Senate.
Basically nothing is going to be passed for two years except a budget, and that only after government shutdowns.
The republicans won’t repeal the individual mandates. Their masters will never let that happen.
will the treasury print money to pay our bills and start down the slippery slope towards hyperinflation or stagflation? (I know we’re already on our way towards the second)
They may try to cut funding for Sanders’ community health centers. That was one of the few actual good things in the bill, and is clearly spending, and I’m sure they hate Bernie, so I imagine it will be on the chopping block.
With Lieberman, Feinstein, Nelson, etc. in the ‘Democratic’ caucus – no, they won’t. We can only hope some stand tough, even if they have to play Progressive du Jour like those played Villain.
On the actual thread topic, when the House Republicans try to attach a bunch of radical crap to raising the debt ceiling, Obama should simply say “We don’t negotiate with terrorists” and veto it, repeatedly. I’m going to hold my breath until that happens.
Hey, Wall Street is surging!
Obama should claim credit for this, before the GOP does.
:o(
The “majority” will end up filibustering. Which is why Obama is all of a sudden in favor of filibuster reform.
Obama is a very good trojan horse
the big question today should be why did the fed give wall street another 900 billion? and give main street 0?
and why did they choose to do this after the election?
every dem in congress, that seeks to get re-elected in 2012, has better figure who the true enemy is.
That leaves them with a strategy of nibbling away by de-funding what they can. But some of the things they are most likely to cut are popular with independent voters.
And they’ll be bluffing; it’s a dud grenade. Just how do you think their masters in the financial services industry will react to this threat?
damn straight.
A game of hardball should have two sides. If Senator Demint demands spending cuts to equal the raising of the ceiling, the administration should start out well before the issue comes up by saying that it will first look at mothballing military bases in Senators Demint, McConnell,et els states and wait for the howling to start then don’t back down.
Too much to hope for, I know but a girl can hope.
I hope America realizes that the world is not going to put up with this shit for much longer. If you want the American dollar to remain the world’s currency, you’re going to have to act like adults. Otherwise, we’ll all move to the Euro and to hell with you.
The Republicans will do this. The more economic pain that the country feels, the better that they do at the polls.
A portion of their base looks forward to an economic collapse — if anyone actually read Ann Rand’s books (the psychotic founder of the religion of Liberterianism) you would see that this is the goal. Total collapse and then the sheep baa out for the rich and smart industrialists to lead them.
Another portion of their base looks forward to collapse because it means that Jesus will come soon. Some in the GOP already making noises about attacking China(!) which is intended to push the rapture-o-meter a few points further.
Bohner wants collapse so that he can become President — all he has to do is get rid of President Obama and President Biden and then he gets to call the shots. (Free fake tans for everyone.)
Collapse is not like a Mel Gibson movie, though – what it really means is years and years of pain and hardship that makes anyone complaining what we are going through now look like a whiny two-year-old. There are not rainbows and Unicorns (or Jesus) at the other side.
Based on DeMint’s statement in Update III, I am 100% certain that this is the guise under which Social Security will be cut.
I’d bet my next year’s income on it.
The irony is that the best thing they could do to reduce the debt is let the tax cuts expire. I think the deficit would be over in about four years (need to find that article.) The second best thing they could do would be to retroactivly undo Obama’s middle-class tax cuts, which were the biggest part of the stimulus.
The best way to reduce the debt is to get full employment.
Spending has not gone up (more then the historical norm), revenue has gone down.
How is it that the Republicans win ONE legislative body—-do not have the other OR the White House and they have so much power?
The Dems have all three and can’t do squat.
If the Dems lose all of it–look out. They just roll over and play dead.
It’s maddening.
Oh for the love of Benji. Congress has already delegated to the Secretary of Treasury its coin seigniorage power. Tsy doesn’t have to borrow, just mint platinum coins “with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe”. The Fed pays Tsy face value for coins (wow “a $1 trillion coin with Reagan’s face on it, cool”. Since seigniorage is booked as revenue and not debt,it would also instantly balance the budget, hooray! Since T-bill sales wouldn’t be draining excess reserves, the fed can still peg its federal fund rate by paying (as it does already) interest on reserves. It would piss off the bond market to no end, there’s no economic reason the US Government would ever have to sell Treasuries or, more to the point, raise the debt limit.
If Congress then tried to yank back its seignorage power with a new law, well, the President has 10 days to sign or veto a bill. You can print a lot of platinum coins in 10 days. The President could threaten to pay off the national debt in an afternoon (all aboveboard but would screw up financial markets to no end) if such a bill passed… or I guess he could just veto it. :o)
There shall be established in the Treasury of the United States, a United States Mint Public Enterprise Fund (the “Fund”) for fiscal year 1996 and hereafter… the Fund may retain receipts from the Federal Reserve System from the sale of circulating coins at face value for deposit into the Fund… at such times as the Secretary of the Treasury determines appropriate, but not less than annually, any amount in the Fund that is determined to be in excess of the amount required by the Fund shall be transferred to the Treasury for deposit as miscellaneous receipts…
51 US 5136
The Secretary may mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations, and inscriptions as the Secretary, in the Secretary’s discretion, may prescribe from time to time.
31 US 5112(k)
The coins would never make it off Wall Street to actually retire the debt.
The Republicans do own the Supreme Court, so technically it is a tie.
Is this when the Dems execute the nuclear option, change the filibuster rule and call the Republicans on their bluff?
Never make it off Wall Street? Tsy wouldn’t have to retire the debt, just keep paying debt service on the existing debt. Tsy deposits coin(s) with Fed which credits Tsy with the face value of the coin. Tsy now has, say, $1 trillion sitting in its Fed account. Now it still needs an appropriation to actually wire a payment to anyone, fortunately there’s an indefinite permanent appropriation for public debt.
Necessary amounts are appropriated for the following:
…
(2) to pay interest on the public debt under laws authorizing payment.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode31/usc_sec_31_00001305—-000-.html
That health plan is a Republican health plan. They love it, Wall Street loves it, stocks shot up when it was passed. Republicans felt safe in voting no, because they already knew they could run against it, but still get contributions and such. If they do anything, they will leave the mandate, but cut the provisions about pre-existing conditions – things that the insurance companies do not want.
They have to drop the mandates from the bill or else their base will not take it lying down.
It is the Individual Mandates why the Democrats lost and Republicans gained in Congress. Repealing Mandates is the only way Republicans can gain Senate Majority and Presidency besides saving our Economy and Unseen Social Costs. BTW Mandates will destroy our economy in the long run by gutting middle class without providing any medical services, forcing people not to take care of their personal responsibilities like child support etc., forcing our corporations to do production in other parts of the world and is also against Universal Human Values of having Liberty to Make Free Choice.