Could Nancy Pelosi’s decision to return as Minority Leader of the Democratic caucus end up squeezing Steny Hoyer out of the leadership entirely?

It looks possible. Hoyer may have been banking on Pelosi exiting quietly, with him moving from Majority Leader to Minority Leader. However, Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), the Majority Whip the past two Congresses, announced his intention to run for Minority Whip, traditionally the chief vote-counter of the caucus but also the #2 in command.

I am seeking your support and vote for Democratic Whip. Throughout the course of my tenure, I have demonstrated the ability and willingness to give selfless service to our Caucus. My record of leadership in our Caucus has prepared me well for the challenges ahead. I am confident we can rebuild the coalition that carried Democrats and President Obama into office in 2008 and that it will lead us on the road back to the majority in 2012 [...]

Last Tuesday’s election swept into power many reactionary, ideological candidates with extremist views on taxes, regulation, Social Security, Medicare, immigration, women, and health care. We must highlight these fringe ideas and make Republicans own and account for the extremists in their ranks. As the minority party in the House, we no longer set the agenda, but we must offer common sense alternatives and work with the President and the Senate Democratic majority to build upon the foundation we’ve already laid. The road back to the majority will require a laser-like focus, a consistent and coherent message, and hard work at the grassroots level. I know this path can be successful because it is a road we have traveled before.

I have always found that you get the best out of others when you give the best of yourself. Most of you know my record, and all of you have my promise that I will listen to each and every Member and work harder than anyone to achieve our goals. By working together, respecting each other, and celebrating our diversity, we will come back a stronger and more resilient majority. I hope that I can count on your support for Democratic Whip, and I look forward to working with you in the 112th Congress.

This leaves no place for Hoyer unless he accepts a demotion into a reduced leadership capacity. A Hoyer spokeswoman told the Huffington Post that the Maryland Democrat “has received a lot of support from members over the past several days urging him to stay as a part of leadership. He’ll spend the next couple of days talking to members and getting their thoughts on him being minority whip.”

This does not actually set up well for Hoyer. He was the more conservative member of the leadership team, and now Democrats have a more ideologically cohesive caucus which tilts left. Clyburn has already picked up the support of Congressional Black Caucus Chair Barbara Lee. The CBC did not diminish a bit in the 2010 midterms and represents a significant bloc.

It doesn’t mean that Hoyer cannot win – he has plenty of goodwill from members who he bestowed lots of money on during their past campaigns. It was thought in 2007 that the late Jack Murtha could challenge Hoyer for the Majority Leader position, and Hoyer destroyed him in the final vote. But it sets up quite a battle.

Key question: who will Pelosi back?

UPDATE: Pelosi has in the past urged John Larsen to run for the #3 position in the leadership. That would really leave no room for Hoyer.