I’m pleased to see Jan Schakowsky, a member of the Catfood Commission, release her own deficit reduction plan, and in a way I’m also not pleased by it. Let’s give a brief precis on what it entails, first.
Schakowsky has set up a left flank to the right-wing Bowles-Simpson recommendations, and in a negotiation that at least makes some sense. To get to the target number by 2015, she adds 35% in revenues, 31% by canceling tax expenditures, 26% through defense cuts, 6% through “mandatory” spending reductions, and 2% through non-defense discretionary cuts. Most of the non-defense discretionary spending comes from reducing improper payments, mainly through Medicaid. So that’s a waste, fraud and abuse piece, not a cut in services.
Schakowsky manages to get $110 billion annually out of the defense budget, mostly through ending unnecessary weapons systems. She reduces mandatory spending through a robust public option, negotiating drug prices through Medicare and Medicaid, banning anti-competitive “pay for delay” settlements with generic drugs, and cutting farm subsidies by $7.5 billion.
Schakowsky eliminates the tax expenditure that allows corporation to deduct debt interest payments, saving $77 billion dollars. She cuts out tax breaks allowing firms to bring foreign income back to the US, and tax breaks for outsourcing. She eliminates the deduction for meals and entertainment, which is ripe for tax abuse.
On taxes, Schakowsky would treat dividends and capital gains as ordinary income, for a savings of $88 billion. She would add a surtax on corporate income for another $5.8 billion annually. She uses the Sanders bill on the estate tax that adds progressive marginal tax rates at higher levels on estates. She would enact a cap and trade bill for $52 billion in annual income for the Treasury. She would tax high-end bonuses.
On Social Security, she would eliminate the payroll tax cap for employers and up it to capture 90% of income for employees. That takes care of 3/4 of the Social Security shortfall. On the rest, she adds a “legacy tax” on employee earnings over the cap, at a slightly lower rate. That takes care of it.
So this is certainly better than useful idiots like Mark Warner saying “do the math” in order to cut Social Security. And it’s better than the greybeard panels that are stalking horses for entitlements and defenders of the rich. In the main, I like Schakowsky’s plan, though obviously everyone could add and subtract their own bits.
But the problem is that a “deficit reduction plan” doesn’t address what actually causes deficits: namely, recessions. Maybe the DC establishment thinks that the public is being unserious by caring more about jobs than deficits, but they’re actually correct on both counts. It’s not just because one in four Americans are receiving food assistance, though that’s a moral crisis that requires an urgency to act.
If you look over history, reductions in GDP cause deficits to go up, both because of the loss of tax revenue and the increase in automatic stabilizer payments like unemployment insurance and food stamps. So the best way to reduce the deficit really is to grow the economy.
In fact, growing the economy and making the rich pay their fair share will just about do it. We don’t have to wonder about it: that was the Clinton formula in the 1990s. He raised taxes on the rich, and the economy took off. That was enough to balance the budget, and the hole was pretty bad at that time.
In this case, you need to counter-intuitively spend first to increase demand in order to get the growth necessary to cut into the deficit. To her credit, Schakowsky assumes $200 billion in investments in 2011 and 2012, to be spent on measures like the Local Jobs for America Act, which would create a million local government jobs, as well as infrastructure spending and extensions of unemployment insurance and state fiscal aid. But just releasing a deficit reduction plan gives away some of the game. It forces you to play on the turf of the deficit scolds. The plan should be: grow the economy, watch the budget savings, the end.
John Larsen, of the House Democratic leadership, had the courage to say today that the party just didn’t do enough on unemployment, and that’s why a lot of them lost their jobs:
Rep. John Larson (Conn.), the House Democratic Caucus chairman who is expected to keep his position in a vote on Wednesday, said that his party did not do enough in the eyes of voters to help bring down the nation’s 9.6 percent unemployment rate.
“We never did enough in terms of that area for us to have the kind of success we would have,” he said on MSNBC. “We had a Roosevelt moment and responded like Hoover.”
Larson’s comments are a stinging assessment of his party’s efforts to help create jobs during the 111th Congress. Voters, who swept Democrats out of power in the House two weeks ago, consistently named the economy and jobs as the top two issues during the midterm campaign.
Writing deficit reduction plans when there are 15 million Americans out of work contributes to this problem.




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Does anybody remember the WPA?
In this Corporate controlled Administration and Congress, her good and honest proposal is DOA.
David,
And this is why no intelligent person should take anyone in either wing of the Republican Party seriously on any issue concering fiscal and monetary matters. You hit the nail on the head with this one. Recessions and massive job losses create deficits. But one thing to realize is that this is no ordinary recession. This is structural depression. Since this country has for a long time been an Empire of Consumption selling endless debt, it can no longer sustain its military and social welfare state. Until robust manufacturing and a robust business economy returns, then the only way to even think about reducing deficits is for the poor to take it squarely in the face…………..
Sadly I think you are right. This is the Age of Non-Reason.
This plan is similar to a “liberal” solution to the NYT Interactive Budget Puzzle:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html?choices=dmt205qv
My complaint is that it assumes further moves toward a single payer health system are off the table. Also I think there should be a 100% (not 90%) lifting of the cap on social security withholdings.
Tax investments every time they are bought and sold would raise tons of money and help stop speculation.
It will never even get a vote.
True True. But I am glad to see our side at least speak out with some coherence.
This is exactly what I can’t stand about progressives. Instead of going directly at the deficit hawks and telling the truth, namely that there’s no such thing as solvency risk for a Government with a non-convertible fiat currency system and a floating exchange rate owing no money in any currency except the one it can create, she gives in to the major premise of the hawks, that there is a deficit problem due to solvency risk and the only problem is that the hawks want to cut the wrong things. Then she proposes what the right things to cut and promptly sets up a negotiation that will result in a “perfect is the enemy of the good” compromise in which some of the wrong things are cut and some of the right things are cut, and, on balance, we end up much worse off than we are today.
Progressive like this, we don’t need. We need people who will call out the lie about solvency risk, call out the President for appointing the Commission in the first place when Congress would not do it, and tie up the Government until something is done to supply jobs for anyone who wants one.
What a GREAT summary statement of the MASSIVE fail that is this administration.
But as David writes:
It reinforces the false terms of the debate.
We need to invest in jobs all these models the cat food people use I bet assume the economy will get better.
What do the numbers say if we like Japan have a lost decade?
We need to create jobs that give America value like green power jobs. Solar panels, Windmills etc made in America can help power electric, hybrid and fuel cell cars. This creates jobs in America so American workers can spend money buying stuff and help the economy.
This provides cheap power once the initial cost of building green power is paid back because the fuel is free.
Cheap power means lower manufacturing costs in the low run. Clean power means how many millions saved from treating pollution related disease.
Or we can just let China keep out spending us on green power and wake up one day to find that their cost of manufacturing has dropped because their fuel is free and their workers have less sick days thanks to less pollution.
Oh, I agree. It’s more than I expected and better than I would have thought.
“Deficits don’t matter.”
–Dick Cheney
Hey, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Yeah, I took that puzzle earlier today. And I eliminated the deficit without too much problem, without cutting SS or Medicare or Medicaid, without cutting any much in the way of social spending of any kind. (Even agriculture subsidies, which although they get a deserved bad rap, and there’s a lot to want to change, I kept, on the idea that it *is* an overall good idea to encourage things like the overproduction of food and the conservation of soil).
But I saw immediately what you mean. The most you could do was to return with income taxes was to return rates to Clinton-era levels + a surcharge on millionaires, not a return to 1950s-era top tax rates. The puzzle lumped spending on NASA and space exploration with reducing nuclear weapons inventory (HUH!!??). It didn’t have medicare-for-all and/or VA-for-all health care savings. Instead, I had to add a consumption tax (yuk) to get over the top on the long-term deficit.
I did cancel most new weapons systems, and defense contracting, but there was no provision for a return to the draft, which I suspect would be cheaper (and more democratic) than our all-volunteer army. I suspect the all-volunteer army is more expensive as they have to make the military a career choice instead of required service. Unfortunately it moreover seems to collect right-wing crazies who want that career. As such, as a military that has become dissimilar to the civilian population which it’s supposed to be subservient to and protect, I believe our current all-volunteer army would have to be a potential source of worry for any democracy. Right now we see too-many signs of a military “too big for its britches” and ready to buck civilian leadership and play politics.
Lots of opportunities for increased revenue, and lots of opportunities for savings, were missing IMHO.
stewartm
It seems to me that the Tea Party Republicans are routinely criticized by the left for not offering any serious proposal for reducing the deficit and balancing the budget; instead they tend to focus on two-bit things like ending earmarks or ending foreign aid, when the real structural problems with the budget are the entitlement programs. Now, it seems that Rep. Schakowsky has committed the same error: an attempt to balance the budget in an unserious way, without addressing the main drivers of our government’s fiscal instability. What is needed, it appears, is a progressive plan to make the entitlement programs solvent and sustainable over the long term.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/China/china-green-focusing-energy-technology-transportation/story?id=12160354
I wish we had Commies trying to put our people to work building trains and green power.
What you say is true in the general. However she was a member of this commission whose chairmen chose to ignore in their personal reports. I give her great credit for demonstrating her differences. The fact that she accepted being a member of the committee I think limited her in this context to speaking to the task.
The time for real progressives to speak to the larger point and refuse to serve on the committee or otherwise collaborate was when Obama set up the commission.
I don’t know that her proposals will get that much attention and really have no strong affinity or repulsion by them.
We also need to not let our desire for the perfect progressive/liberal lawmaker get in the way of supporting those who pretty lonely without support of their president or the public discourse in the media.
Well,it’s a prelude to the cave.
I think the Lake should come up with its own interactive game so our solutions can get a hearing.
Imagine if we had National Healthcare instead of Obama care or even worse our current system, Imagine if ending both wars right now was an option to cut spending. :)
Imagine every FDLer emailing the game to their right wing friends and relatives:)
We need to subvert the media that won’t give us air time we need fun! We need teachers to suggest their kids play the game at school:)
Edit @18 Last paragraph.
We also need to not let our desire for the perfect progressive/liberal lawmaker get in the way of supporting those who come close. They are pretty lonely without support of their president or the public discourse in the media.
Imagine fuel cell cars running on water American water made by American workers all that money we spend on foreign oil spent instead in our economy. All those good paying jobs adding to the SS trust fund.
This is exactly why this guy needs a primary challenge. The winning message in 2012 is:
–an end to the fucking wars
–a jobs program to bring down unemployment to 5%
–expansion of Medicare
–lowering of the retirement age and increase in SS benefits
–much higher taxes on the rich
–a 5-year plan to reduce the deficit
plus some other shit I’m forgetting (too many beers).
But this clown doesn’t have the courage or intelligence to run on this message. Hell, Pee Wee Herman could win with a message like this.
Right we can cut SS and watch old people die sooner in poverty. We can cut unemployment benefits and spend how much more to imprison all the soon to be homeless people? Granted it might be cheaper just to shoot them.
We can watch consumer demand drop like a stone as SS and unemployment are cut that could tank the economy.
A serious idea is tax the rich like FDR did there is no other real world examples of building an economy that work as well.
Here’s my “vision”?
1. Hands off on Social Security. For purpose of solvency, remove the cap for contributions.
2. Reduce Pentagon spending by $250 Billion. See below.
3. Spend $50 Billion on OJT Contracts and CETA and where the federal government takes the lead in jobs creation. Consequently, 5 million new jobs annually for the unemployed, and in three years, that’s 15 million jobs.
4. Spend $50 billion annually to establish the “academic-military” draft that will lead to 5 million (annually) of high school dropouts and high school graduates, volunteering for 3 years only, and leading to a massive infusion of new students, armed with a Associate of Arts Degree in General Studies, at the completion of this voluntary military service. Consequently, all public institutions of higher learning will redirect their loans, grants and scholarships to third and fourh-year academics.
And this is the Progressive primise for “Empowering the Individual”.
Jaango
Givens:
Social Security is sitting with a $2.4T surplus right now.
The surplus is anticipated to grow to $4.7T
Yes, that surplus is invested in special US Treasury Bonds backed by the “full faith and credit of the United States”
Doing things like raising retirement ages or cutting benefits are de facto defaults on those Bonds
The Social Security Administration has historically used extremely conservative projections on both moneys coming in and being paid out
Getting people employed would go a long way to bringing the funds influx to the SSA back to what it should be
Raising the cap on payments into SS from $106k will go a long way to solving the remaining problems
And even if NOTHING is done, based on current projections Social Security will pay 75% of current benefits starting in the 2045-2047 time frame
Sounds to me like our entitlement programs are far more solvent and sustainable right now than any other component of the economy.
Cutting big ticket DoD programs that are relics of the Cold War are quite valid actions to take. Especially since the current techonology within the US DoD is still far superior to that of any other armed forces in the world.
Shock Doctrine economics of cutting sent South American living standards down and resulted in a backlash Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela, El Salvador etc have all gone Left as a result. Only American military aid and troops keeps Honduras, Columbia and Panama in our camp.
Milton Friedmen’s boys certainly made a mess of things.
A serious plan a conservative plan would be based on ideas that have worked in the past, preferably the best idea that worked in the past. For that you need look no further than FDR.
Considering our multi-trillion dollar military was stalemated by insurgents with no military budget we should cut Pentagon spending by 90% and hire the Iraqi insurgents to show us how to run a cost effective military.
she’s going rogue for all the wrong reasons; so much missing that it’s hard to know where to start;
for a real simplistic intro to how modern monetary operations actually work, try this (public/private deficits, currency creation, reserve-drains, etc, etc)
http:**moslereconomics.com/2009/12/10/7-deadly-innocent-frauds/
Love that idea! We can then hire bin Laden to train people on evasion and stealth since our intel apparatus isn’t capable of finding a six and a half foot tall Saudi Arabian who needs dialysis…
David Dayen is upstairs!
British Government to Pay 16 Torture Victims
Is there ANY historical evidence that during a severe economic recession or depression that the solution is to decrease government spending AND decrease taxes? If so, what are the concrete examples. A 36% tax rate for the wealthy is on the historically low end. Yet, the discussion continues to be about tax cuts.
Maybe Jane and a few other supposedly lefty DFHs should get together for a media blitz to loudly oppose Schakowsky’s plan. Maybe then it’ll get serious consideration.
(Every time a liberal says he or she likes something, Lieberman or some other right winger comes out to crush it.)
I like your suggestion that the Lake put a deficit reduction game on its front page – but one with progressive options – indeed with a default package that is shown with a note on how this set of decisions does not screw the middleclass as much as other sets of decisions.
The SOA had such a game for Social Security – it helped inform a lot of non-actuaries.
So a tax increase is “savings”?
“…there’s no such thing as solvency risk for a Government with a non-convertible fiat currency system and a floating exchange rate owing no money in any currency except the one it can create….”
_______________________
Tell that to the Mexicans, Argentinians, Zimbabweans, etc., etc.
Thanks David!
You nailed it with this:
Until we get back to full employment, all the deficit cutting plans can be put in cold storage.
I wish they did because we sure need it.
I’m afraid that the folks in Washington only remember 1 word from that era: Boondoggle. Wallstreets term for productive employment which doesn’t produce a direct quarterly profit for Wallstreet.
Phase 1 : The reps & jobs
1. Even when the economy was on the cusp of entire collapse just like Lehman Brothers ahead of the roll-out of stimulus package, it was held hostage by Audacity of Nope, and the time was running out.
Power first said : Nope ! How do we pay for it ?, Just let him go under exactly like Lehman Brothers.
2. It is also important to remember a small business bill that was blocked for weeks by a republican filibuster in the Senate.
3. Power first now says without hesitation : Extend the tax cuts for the greedy until we’re out of this recession, or for the job creation.
Under the failed Bush tax cut for lavish bonus parties, a sole job plan for the reps, the country already saw millions of job cuts.
And hence it’s the right time to ask themselves as to how they can pay for it.
4. Jobs ahead in another Bush era ( = Entire Downfall ) ??
I think D.S. is going to realize vividly how Bush era wrecked economy.
Phase 2 : The reps Will Stomp On Middle Class & Economy.
The SHAMELESS reps’ principal : No principal & power-only !
1. The reps campaigned on their ability to cut spending and balance the budget, so they should be required to make good on that pledge.
But, the Bush tax cut for the greedy will add an additional $700 billion to the deficit over a decade.
As for the Democrats, sound investments = deficit hike.
As for the reps, failed giveaway policy = job creation.
2. Over the duration of healthcare debate, using the preliminary cost analysis of CBO, the reps opposed the public option stubbornly, but after the release of final score, they have been defiant on the referee.
Inaction cost in relation to health care reform totals $9trillion over the next decade.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that reform will reduce the federal deficit by $143 billion over the next 10 years and as much as $1 trillion during the following decade
3. In view of Medicare & Social Security :
“Don’t Let Government Touch Your Medicare & Social Security”
“We will instead Stomp On Your Medicare & Social Security”
Phase 3 : Shared Sacrifice ??
1. The flagship proposal of the commission’s chairmen is to Stomp On Medicare & Social Security, or Middle Class.
2. Diagnosis of Cancer, Prescription for Cold ??
The deficits have mushroomed not because of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid but because of “two unpaid wars, tax breaks for the wealthy, a Medicare prescription drug bill written by the pharmaceutical industry, and the Wall Street bailout.”
a. The total cost to the United States of the Iraq war at $3 trillion.
But it appears that the $3 trillion estimate (which accounted for both government expenses and the war’s broader impact on the U.S. economy) was, if anything, too low. For example, the cost of diagnosing, treating and compensating disabled veterans has proved higher than expected.
b. The country got here because of the bursting of an $8 trillion housing bubble. This bubble was fueled by the reckless and possibly unlawful practices of the Wall Street banks, like Morgan Stanley, the bank on whose board Bowles sits.
Mr. Bowles is a director of Morgan Stanley, one of the bailed out Wall Street banks. He gets $335,000 a year for his work with Morgan Stanley. This may be one of the reasons that the co-chairs report did not mention a financial speculation tax as a possible source of revenue, even though financial sector taxes have been widely advocated by policy analysts around the world, including even the I.M.F.
3. It is clear that there are a number of fair, progressive ways to reduce deficits without harming the middle class and those who have already lost their jobs, homes, life savings and ability to send their kids to college.
A reeling housing market probably would slide further if, as recommended, Congress were to repeal the tax deduction for mortgage interest
Calls for upping the age of retirement to 68 and later 69, charging more for Medicare, limiting the mortgage deduction and reducing increases in Social Security related to inflation, all measures guaranteed to drive Middle Class into poverty and to further jeopardize the economic recovery.
The government can overcome its trillion-dollar-plus deficit by merely cutting “waste, fraud and abuse”, say, can balance the budget by simply undoing the disastrous policies of the Bush administration. the job-cutting proposals
a. Why not stop the Afghanistan war at a price tag of 140 billion a year…why not reduce what U.S. spends for military 800billion a year…U.S. military budget is as big as the next 27 countries COMBINED ! Even overall US intelligence budget tops $80 billion annually.
Weapon Sell = Mexican Drug Trafficking = Destroy all, driving global economy in a destructive direction
And Weapon inventory is more likely to provoke constant wars.
b. End Bush-era tax breaks for the greedy.
c. Eliminate tax credits for big oil companies that have posted the highest profits in history, and the likes.
Phase 4 : The choice is clear
AS we are all aware, while many of small businesses are in financial trouble, lots of big name companies are reluctant to expand businesses, even with adequate capital.
From what I understand, they might take into account that the country is suffering from 9.6 percent unemployment, more than 25 million people are unemployed, or have given up looking for work altogether, tens of millions of people are underwater in their mortgage and millions face the prospect of losing their home to foreclosure, and beyond, say, low demand.
Given, the choice is clear, which one is going a long way to desperately needed job boost, tax credit for middle class or others.
Excellent analysis. Pretty much sums everything up. However, neither wing of the Republican Party has any interest in job creation or economic expansion. They want to cut services to all lower class people while showering billions upon billions in tax breaks and subsidies to the already rich beyond human imagination…………..
Sorry. But Mexico, Argentina, and Zimbabwe, did not fit my description at the time of their insolvency problems. All three owed massive external debts in currencies not their own. In Zimbabwe’s case, their ruinous inflation was also created by Government spending created exceeding capacity of Zimbabwe to produce real wealth. That condition doesn’t exist in the US which is now running at 70% of its capacity. These Governments couldn’t pay their external debts denominated in other currencies. The US has no debts other than those denominated in our currency which we can freely spend to pay our obligations.
Once again my claim was:
“…there’s no such thing as solvency risk for a Government with a non-convertible fiat currency system and a floating exchange rate owing no money in any currency except the one it can create….”
None of the cases you cited meet my conditions. Neither does the Weimar Republic so please spare us the mention of that irrelevant case.
I think that if you investigate this, you’ll see that no Governments meeting the conditions I specified could be forced into insolvency by their creditors in the past. Based on past history, the risk is zero that this can happen to the United States.
Now, if you want to talk about inflation, that’s another issue and we can talk about that. But, again, there is no solvency risk. It’s a fairy tale.