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My inkling was that today’s vote on the unemployment insurance extension was something of a dry run, for two reasons. One, the House leadership wanted to see how much support they could get for a UI extension. Two, they wanted to test-run an important bill under the suspension calendar, which allows for no amendments or the motion to recommit. Because I suspect that’s how they’re planning on pulling this off.
Steny Hoyer, the number two in the House Dem leadership, told Democrats at a caucus meeting this morning that they would get to vote this year on just extending the Bush tax cuts for the middle class, a senior Dem aide tells me, signaling support for a confrontational move towards the GOP that liberals have been pushing.
Asked if Democrats would definitely get a chance to hold this vote, the senior aide responded: “Definitely.”
Hoyer’s declaration comes as Democrats have been debating the way forward on the Bush tax cuts, and another aide tells me that “more than half” of the Dem caucus supports this course of action.
If they offer up the bill under standard rules, Republicans will offer a motion to recommit to add in the high-end tax cuts, and Democrats will join with Republicans to pass that by a wide margin, I predict. But if they moved the bill on the suspension calendar, they could get precisely the vote the want, without amendment. The catch would be that they would need 290 votes for it. But even if they lose, they get Republicans to vote against a giant tax cut for the middle class.
The Paygo rules mean nothing here, because it specifically exempted tax cuts under $250,000 from the statutory rule.
Of course, nobody should act like Republicans have no opportunity to pass their own legislation on this after they get control of the House. It’s a virtual certainty that, if nothing is resolved, they’ll move some kind of full extension, and the House would pass that with ease. The Senate might as well, given the diminished Democratic majority.
There is value in getting the actual vote, however, regardless of the outcome. The public ought to know who supports what position in this debate. And who knows, maybe Democrats could get enough crossover votes to pass the middle class tax cuts only, although the prospects of that holding in the Senate are quite dim.
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This is written as if the house did not have the option to pass something like this some time ago – perhaps before the election to sharpen the comparisons.
Tax rates will rise for everyone
Conventional wisdom says current rates will be extended. But political reality says rates will go up for everyone in January and will stay higher. That’s what we get with divided government, for better or worse.
http://bit.ly/dnKWes
I’m not sure this will count for anything. Especially if the R messaging is that both will pass within a few months. Am I missing something?
You assume a lot for this vote to matter in two years: that anyone will even remember it, and care, and if they do, that Reps won’t use it to show how Dems delayed whatever cuts do pass. They’re a day late and almost a trillion dollars short again, because some Blue Dogs were really Yellow Chickens.
I am willing for my widow’s mite to be increased ( not likely much because I have little income) in order to have the rates go up for the immensely wealthy which will significantly improve the situation.
Agree. Won’t the key narrative be that Obama signed them into law? What will his argument be? They made me do it?
Let’s not forget that it was Hoyer who persuaded Pelosi not to hold a vote BEFORE the election. WAY too little, FAR too late Steny.
YES!!!
Steve Hoyer a man who makes Sarah Palin look like a genius!
Real Democrats would have done things like this in August, September, October, etc.
Who knew? Axelrod, Gibbs, Jarrett, Obama are running neck and neck for worse White House adminstration ever they have over taken HOOVER, next is BUSH JR.
“The Paygo rules mean nothing here, because it specifically exempted tax cuts under $250,000 from the statutory rule.”
But in reality they aren’t exempt. Thinking that Obama isn’t apply his own Paygo rules via the Catfood Commission is a big mistake. All this talk about whether we should keep 95% or 100% of the Bush Tax Cuts is being used to shred Social Security.
yes!
Obama mission is to make 98% of the USA population debtors!
OBAMA is BUSH CHENEY III
OBAMA just needs to fly AIR FORCE ONE over WALL STREET, because he does not care about the rest of the USA.
the OBAMA PONZI scheme will bankrupt the USA.
if anyone thinks OBAMA is going to get re-elected in 2012? they need their head examine
Right and Micheal Moore says the Dims can pass a lot of leg before the hammer falls in 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/lets-pass-some-laws-befor_b_784034.html
I agree.
A vote this November that shows repubs against a middle class tax break and in favor or the 2 percenters will mean nothing after February when the repubs pass a bill supporting both.
By 2012, November 2010 will be long forgotten.
What is this about Wyden breaking bread with Erskine Bowles, the Obama co-chair of the cat food commission? Not to mention the Wyden tax “reform” plan including cuts of the corporate tax rate.
http://www.slate.com/id/2275143
I’m for all personal income tax payers with less than 250,000 in income to pay the effective Google corporate federal tax rate, 2.5 percent.
What happened to the plan about passing temporary for everybody into next year, then a separate sidecar with a permanent repeal for the middle class?
Fine that they got the R’s on a vote against a permanent middle class tax cut. But isn’t the real goal to decouple the high rates from the ones the middle class pays? Wouldn’t that be easier to achieve in early 2011?
There are 80 new Republican house members taking oaths in early 2011.
Right now it is just the lame ducks until the recess shortly.
If Bush’s tax cuts are allowed to expire as they are set to on December 31st, the deficit would be cut in half, instantly.
If the tax cuts are continued for the rich, we would have to borrow $700 billion to pay for it.
If the tax cuts are continued for everyone, we would have to borrow $3 trillion to pay for it.
And if there is a 2-year extension “compromise”, we would still have to borrow $70-140 billion for the rich’s portion and $383 billion for the middle class’s portion.
Obama is expanding the wars into Yemen.
Where’s the money coming from?
Obama and Democratic leadership have already indicated they’re on board with Social Security cuts, privatizing, etc.
There should be tax HIKES on corporations and the rich. There should be massive cuts to the military. Banks should be threatened with nationalization unless they begin lending to small businesses.
That’s the message we should be driving. Non-stop.