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The fly in the ointment of this tax cut deal appears to be in the House of Representatives, though I’m going to question the math here:
While the public focus of the Great Tax Battle remains riveted on the U.S. Senate, top Democratic insiders are privately worried about the real lame-duck end game: a last-minute, potentially deal-breaking revolt by Democrats in the House [...]
The Senate-based deal is likely to include a two-year extension of Bush-era income tax cuts, even for the wealthiest families and a reauthorization of the existing program of jobless benefits so that some 2 million Americans don’t lose them at Christmas [...]
The biggest problem — most seem to have forgotten — is in the House. Many seem to have forgotten that it is the House, which must originate tax bills, that last week voted by a 234-188 margin to limit the extension of the Bush tax cuts to families making less than $250,000 — Obama’s original campaign pledge.
Speaker-to-Be John Boehner denounced the vote as grandstanding “chicken crap,” but, being the legislative veteran that he is, he understood its procedural significance: It meant that whatever the Senate produces must come back to the House for another vote.
The vote would have to cross the House anyway, Mr. Fineman. And I’m not convinced that the House is a huge obstacle. On the vote on the rule, 33 Democrats sided with the Republicans. In that case, they were both blocking the tax cuts on the first $250,000 to come up for a vote. But they could be expected to side with the GOP on a tax cut deal, too.
I think the bigger problem would come from intransigent Republicans who don’t want to extend unemployment for another year. If you just get a non-trivial number opposing the bill from the right – 20-25 dead-enders – it makes it that much harder to find enough support on the left to get the bill passed.
And ultimately, I see this as less of a problem in the House than in the Senate, mainly because of the difference between a simple majority and a filibuster-proof supermajority. I could easily see Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, Jim Bunning, and the right of the right opposing the deal on these grounds. That would raise the bar significantly on Harry Reid to round up the votes for passage.
I could see the kind of left-right alliance coming together – for very different reasons – to oppose the ultimate deal. And with 60 votes needed in the Senate, maybe the center will not be able to hold.
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There are two key political questions:
Will we get the blame if the “compromise” blows up and every taxpayer sees less in their paycheck starting next month?
Will the bill that comes out of the house in January be worse?
We have been unable to pass anyhting that worked in the last two years – we probably should take the offer we have instead of waiting for a bigger problem.
Then let’s here it for grandstanding “chicken crap.” The prez and the Senate are providing no leadership, so someone needs to. The House should have pressured Obama and the Senate to provide leadership instead of holding a symbolic vote that was DOA, as Jane rightly told O’Donnell a few nights ago. However, now, it’s put up or shut-up time time. If Obama lacks the stones, perhaps someone in the House just might surprise us.
Linking tax cuts for the wealthiest – those who benefitted nicely throughout the 2000s – with an extension of unemployment benefits should never have been done in the first place; it is unconscionable to link one with the other.
Corporations are flush with cash but aren’t hiring, the ‘Pubs want to make permanent the Bush cuts that exploded the deficit, the unenmployment rate just went up and the number of those to be foreclosed continues to rise. Cuts will be made to social programs to “pay” for extending unemployment benefits, while John and Mitch and the boys push more trickle-down. What in the hell is wrong with this picture??? Where is the shame? If this isn’t class warfare, then what is it? As Jane also said, “For the love of God, show some leadership.”
What a deal! According to “Breaking News” over at cnn.com, “Source: President presents Dem leaders with proposal to extend Bush tax cuts two ears and jobless benefits 13 months.”
Obama can’t even get a 1 for 1 on the tax cuts and unemployment benefits. What a negotiator!
No matter what happens, whether we get middle class tax cuts extended, UI benefits extended, a vote on DADT, etc. the rich ARE going to get their Bush tax cuts extended.
Bet on it.
“DeMint, Tom Coburn, Jim Bunning,” are most certainly NOT going to scuttle the deal. There is more liklihood of Hitler building a snowman in hell than there is of these three being responsible for blocking the extension of the tax cuts for the rich.
Yep.
Which is why the vote in the House was all theater. The end result is going to be the same whether they took that vote or didn’t take that vote. The Bush tax cuts are going to be extended for ALL incomes because that’s what Obama and all the national Democrats really want. They merely want to appear as though they’re accepting it against their wishes. THAT was the reason for that vote. To help with that appearance.
No need to worry about Coburn – he makes a lot of noise about deficits but he never met a tax cut he didn’t love.
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen David Dayen and the Firepup disabled veterans:
Great post Brother Dayen, the entire tax “deal” may be doomed in BOTH houses now and for radically different reasons but I think goin forward that if enough Democrats stand firm in the House that there will be no chance of any deal and if the increased revenue from expiration of the tax cuts shows up in the treasury by March, the corporate fascists in BOTH houses will be up a shit creek in leaky boots.
We all know that things are gunna get REALLY tough on 90% of Americans in January but with progressive tax rates back in effect the politics of economic recovery will change over night.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THERE IS NO COMPROMISIN’ WITH FASCISTS!!
The end result of the vote may be foregone, but does Nancy Pelosi have to bring it to a vote? Can she hold the vote hostage and demand Senate passage of important bills? The ways of Congress are strange to normal people but it seems to me that the Speaker has the last word on this.
The Democrats in Congress couldn’t blow up a fart.
Fixed it for ya. Hey, sometimes you just have to call it what it is.
One item that always enters my mind when I see an article is why this slant? Infiltration of an organization is all too frequent. It’s relatively easy to be hoodwink. To pontificate that you’re a conservative organization that produces progressive outcomes? Clever!
For God’s sake! People are losing their homes to the banksters. People that were laid off under Bush still have no work and Bernank says it is going to be three to four more years before the economy is better!
Unemployment benefits have already ran out for the largest part of the unemployed, they are losing their homes, the Holidays are here and Congress can only do a theater!
This system is completely broken. JUST BROKE!
I remember a nearly identical situation not so long ago, where the House passed legislation with a public option, the Senate passed legislation without a public option, and it had to go back before the House. How did that turn out again?
As Fineman puts it:
Well, I’m sure there’s not a single top Republican insider who’s worried about it. Every last one of them knows how this is going to turn out. For that matter, I’m sure every top Democratic insider worth his or her salt isn’t worried, either. They all know that the Bush-Obama tax cuts for the rich will be extended for two years at least.
Fineman’s like the announcer in a reality tv show who’s role is to play up the drama while pretending the whole thing isn’t faked.
As much as I disagree with any tax cut compromise I just read that Obama is now proposing a 1 year payroll and social security tax cut.
did you mean 3 or 4 more decades?
The proles will get royally screwed, whilst many proles clap, cheer and joyously bend over & call for more. The corporate-owned rightwing echo chamber has done it’s job, and most citizens, like lemmings, will go along with this bullsh*t “because we *have* to.”
Make no mistake, the super wealthy will continue to rip us off as long as they possibly can, and if they have the proles living in cardboard shacks and grubbing for roots in vacant lots… so much the better.
Also make no mistake that the super wealthy *could care less* about the proles. Whether we live or die is of absolutely no consequence to them. All they care about are the next deal, making money & themselves. “Caring” is for chumps.
Expecting their whores in Congress to “do the right thing” for “average citizens” is officially a form of insanity. Never going to happen.
Republican’s have spine, Democrats have Jello.
I want Lynn Woolsey to tell me another story story of courage in adversity.
Lemme tell ya, you spinless maggot dems on the House, you will lose the next eleven elections if you don’t start fighting NOW. Shut up and do your fucking jobs.
Euh, just talking to you punks makes me nauseous.
Krugman pointed out this morning that obama just threw the federal workers overboard for $2 billion in savings, and now he’s throwing away $20 billion on tax cuts for millionaires.
and a payroll-tax holiday! i’ll get $100 / month!
i’m still waiting for my god damned pony. maybe president palin will bring it in 2013.
And don’t forget the lack of a cola increase for SS.