Before the DADT repeal vote on Saturday, the Senate will take up the DREAM Act. Both votes came up as a House amendment to a Senate amendment to a bill, so they only require one cloture vote, a motion to concur. If they invoke cloture with 60 votes, they would only need a simple majority after that, and Harry Reid will fill the amendment tree on the measures, so if something passes, it would look identical to what the House passed.
As I said, when you see what amounts to stacked cloture votes like this, it’s a pretty good sign that the majority doesn’t feel confident about the first one passing. If the DREAM Act ended up succeeding, it would push back cloture on DADT repeal probably to Monday, when Ron Wyden won’t be available for voting, because he’s undergoing prostate cancer surgery. DADT repeal probably has 61 votes in hand with Wyden, but you never know, and without him, it makes the potential for error greater. I don’t think that’s what the Senate has in mind, although of course, that outcome would assure passage of the DREAM Act.
The DREAM Act has a little bipartisan support – Bob Bennett and Richard Lugar will vote Yes tomorrow – but some wayward Democrats are expected to vote against it. America’s Voice has a virtual calling tool. This is the last whip count I’ve seen:
Republicans voting Yes: Lugar, Bennett.
Republican leaning Yes: Murkowski.
Republicans undecided or leaning No: LeMieux, Kirk, Hutchison, Collins, Snowe
Democrats likely No: Baucus, Ben Nelson, Tester
Democrats undecided or leaning No: McCaskill, Landrieu, Hagan, Pryor, Manchin, Conrad
I haven’t seen a whip count with more than 51 votes firmly in hand, and 57 on the outside.
Markos has a bit more expanded whip count, bringing in Ensign, Cornyn, Brownback, Voinovich, Gregg, Lindsey Graham and even John McCain as possibilities.
The White House has actually engaged a bit on this issue. Arne Duncan, the Secretary of Education, said on a conference call today that he’s made a number of phone calls to Democrats and Republicans this week and will continue to do so. “There’s a real sense of urgency,” Duncan said. “We have a chance to help young people fill their academic and social potential and be productive citizens. I’m hopeful the Senate can do the right thing.” Duncan has joined seven different cabinet secretaries and top Administration personnel in urging passage of the DREAM Act.
All this being said, I’d be shocked if it passes. And if it dies, it’ll be due to those Senate Democrats who refused to keep party discipline on a cloture vote. With Bennett and Lugar in the bag, a unified caucus would mean 60 votes. But given the nature of how the vote is being brought up, I think the overwhelmingly likely outcome is that it fails tomorrow.




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As appalling as the likely DREAM Act defeat will be, the Food Safety bill, which took decades of dogged advocacy to create, is likely going down since it was attached to the Omnibus bill that Reid withdrew. They may try to reattach it to something else, but all it will take to block that is the objection of one senator–and the odious Tom Coburn from the meat state of Oklahoma is likely to do that. So a doctor will be responsible for more food deaths that will inevitably occur. So add more sick food poisoned kids to those poor kids who won’t be able to go to college. Charming country we live in.
I have an update on that. They’re trying to attach it to the continuing resolution.
Maybe one of those families with a $10 million dollar inheritance might find it in their heart to forgo the extra BMW and sponsor a college education for one of these children.
But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Breaking! Michelle Bachmann named to Intelligence Committee! Seriously…
I’m shocked Shocked I say that the Senate is unable to get sixty votes on a piece of legislation that is supposed to be a pretzeldential priority
or not.
a most ironic appointment
Perhaps he can “Compromise” away something else important to us.
Zillionaires don’t need a frackin Food Saftey Act, when there’s going to plenty of serfs around to be food tasters for them… and the serfs will work for the small crumbs of food they get to taste…
Anything that Arne Duncan is doing falls under the header of “Kabuki Show.”
Arne Duncan picture is next to the word Kabuki
Like our 1st Amendment rights! Or net-neutrality.
He isn’t compromising away anything. Everything he has done has been EXACTLY what he wanted done.
Think Occam’s Razor.
Awww… Bob Shrum has a warm fuzzy for all of the Republicans in Congress now. NOW we’re going to get things done! Where do they find these brainless morons?
The party of NO is going to start saying yes all of a sudden. Why? Because that’s what Shrum WANTS them to do. The reality is they’ll disappoint the shit out of him.
I personally hope democrats obstruct EVERYTHING.
I’ve been hearing some very bad things about this bill. Like regulations on supplements and not really doing what it saying it does and stuff like that.
S-510
Really why should they care about our “health” when they’re going to starve us to death and cut Medicare and Medicaid?
It’s because he’s afraid people will be mean to Obama
ifwhen the Republicans continue to obstruct everything that Obama wants. What a clown.I thought this was part of the deal to get all the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for the wealthy? along with DADT repealed? NO?
Pretty funny
Using the term “party discipline” when referring to Senate Democrats would be a joke if I were able to laugh about anything any more.
Unfortunately, there are no rules or requirements for membership in the Democratic party. Any crook or charlatan can claim to be a Democrat and use party resources to help fund their elections, only to turn around and vote as a Republican on every issue which matters. The Back-stabbers Squad you have named (Baucus, Nelson, Conrad, Landrieu, et al.) should already have been expelled from the party for their conniving and conspiring with the right-wing to sabotage important votes. THAT would be something approaching party discipline. Instead, the Democrats continue to treat party traitors as respected colleagues and dump millions into backing their reelection bids, even when they are clearly hopeless (e.g., Blanche Lincoln).
We either need a new Progressive party, or we need the Progressive Caucus to seize control of the Democratic party and instill some discipline where there presently is none. New Rule #1: If you vote against the party on core issues, YOU’RE OUT!!
You just know they won’t. they obstructed their own bills.
True. They don’t obstruct anything offered by a Republican.
See – HCR.
It enfuriates me that we gave the legislative and administrative branches of government a liberal mandate and they’ve done NOTHING. They squandered a two year opportunity to make real change in this country. Change that we demanded. Obama won in a freaking landslide by campaigning on PROGRESSIVE change. And we’ve been regressive instead.
FML.
The Republican Party’s main critics of the repeal opposed it on the basis, essentially – but with some room for theoretical extrapolation of intent – that allowing gays to serve openly in the military would somehow put troops at risk. The “gays,” according to their baseless arguments, would jeopardize every mission by their flamboyant waving of purple feather boas and their high-stepped marching to the facile choruses of Lady Gaga through the rocky hillsides of Afghanistan. While the “gays” pranced around in Speedos and skin-tight mesh tanktops, the “real” service members would be putting their lives on the line to fight against the guerilla insurgents who seek nothing but to destroy the liberties of the freest nation on earth. – MuddyPolitics.com
Probably the biggest waste of opportunity in the history of electoral politics.
It really is something at how big and sweeping a mandate they had and we got…. The Lilly Ledbetter Act.
And the right wing courts will likely strike that down…
That didn’t take long. The front pagers over at the orange Satan are spinning like mad to make the Rich people Giveaway Act look like the best thing since sliced bread. Meteor Blades says it’s a win while Jed talks in terms of “tax cuts stimulus”. I expected them to eventually roll over but they might have broken something doing it so fast.
I still can’t see how people can claim “stimulus” with a straight face when this is mostly extending current policy.
In fact, due to the fact the $400/$800 Make Work Pay credit was shelved in favor of the 2% FICA holiday, one could almost make the argument that this is LESS stimulative than current policy because it will actually lower the benefit of the lower income earners, and it’s with them that tax cuts are the MOST stimulative.
Because the most important thing to them is to make sure that Barack Obama (D) Heaven is never criticized. Ever.
You need to reduce your time over there, Margaret.
It is simply not healthy, the Orangerie.
Fifty million taxpayers’ first January paychecks will make Barack Obama look to be the liar he is. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner too, but since no one knows who they are, the shit is gonna come down on Obama’s head.
I wonder if people will take to the streets.