James Surowiecki rejects the notion that the current unemployment rate is somehow “structural” and unchangeable. While I think there are minor structural elements to the jobs crisis, it’s far more clear that the structural unemployment myth serves the ends of those who don’t want to react to fix the problem.
If the problems with the job market really were structural, you’d expect job losses to be heavily concentrated in a few industries, the ones that are disappearing as a result of the bursting of the bubble. And if there were industries that were having trouble finding enough qualified workers, you’d expect them to have lots of job vacancies, and to be paying their existing workers more and working them longer hours.
As it happens, you don’t see any of those things. Instead, jobs have been lost and hiring is slow almost across the board. Payrolls were slashed by five per cent or more not just in the bubble categories of construction and finance but also in manufacturing, retail, wholesale, transportation, and information technology. And take hiring: one of the industries that have been most cautious is the hotel and leisure business. Needless to say, there’s no shortage of people with the skills to be maids or waiters; there just isn’t enough work. Another sure sign of weak demand is that people with jobs aren’t deluged with overtime; hours worked have barely budged in the past year.
The usual suspects always make the structural argument because they just don’t believe in fiscal policy and the normal means of stimulating investment and consumption. And I think it’s important to understand the fate to which that consigns 15 million unemployed Americans.
The unemployed are far more likely to go without health insurance, especially now that the COBRA subsidy has lapsed, making it harder for unemployed workers to maintain their old employer-based health coverage. Being uninsured puts people at far greater risk for unnecessary deaths. The unemployed have less money to spend on basic necessities. A new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that unemployed workers frequently cut back on healthy foods like fruits and vegetables, leading to poorer diets and, eventually, bigger health problems. Recent studies show a linkage between unemployment and suicide; during this past recession, calls to suicide hotlines have jumped along with the unemployment rate.
Not everything pulls in this direction; recessions correlate with fewer car accidents, presumably because there are less cars on the road at peak drive-time hours; and higher wages can result in greater consumption of cigarettes, which makes sense, as cigarettes have become taxed so heavily that they practically have become a luxury good. But in a general sense, the impoverished lifestyle is a more dangerous lifestyle. They call it the safety net for a reason, because with unemployment comes far less safety.
So the folks claiming that unemployment is structural and we just have to wait for the business cycle to turn around are essentially allowing millions of people to get sicker, more suicidal and in general more at risk. That’s inexcusable when something can be done to ameliorate the situation. Yet that’s where we are.
UPDATE: Bob Herbert always has good thoughts related to this issue, and he does again today.




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Well, David, I was unemployed for a year and a half(I’m not counting working for the census for six weeks as “employment”). I applied for Social Security in September, two months before I turned 62, then I finally found a “full-time”(36 hours a week) job that wasn’t ridiculously
far away from home(31 miles-about one gallon of gas in each direction)and I’m making $4.00/hour less than I had made for the last six years that I worked.But I still get my paltry SS check,which is mostly going to pay for car repairs so I can keep on working.And I work 3 twelve-hour days a week.
My boss tells me his employees like working longer hours and having more days off.
My republican friends regard me with a new respect for no longer being a drain on the economy, and rising to the occasion by working such long hours.
I happen to believe that the eight-hour workday was a distinct benefit that enhanced health and well-being.My stamina is not too strong ,but I’m holding up.I just wonder whether it’s worth it.
I always love the “you must not be qualified for a good job” as a means of blaming me for my unemployment. In my state, you are allowed to work a part-time job and collect unemployment if you continue to look for full-time work. I can earn $21 an hour working 20 hours a week as a temp for a multi-national corporation, but remarkably I must “not be qualified” to do the exact same work as a full-time employee for someone else. My resume is current, because I am working, and unless you credit the stories that temp work is anathema to HR people, why have I had 6 interviews and not one offer for a permanent job in 2 years? Answer: a large part of the reason is the fact that I’m 63–a great deal of this “structural unemployment” is age-related.
You are doing your job, David. But, forgive me for not shrugging when I, as an unemployed person, had to read this from someone with a job. Those of us who are unemployed, underemployed and desperate, already know.
And, thanks for the tip on Christmas to go talk to my family. Never would have occured to me. /s Projection maybe?
When you’re unemployed or underemployed without any type insurance, you are also likely to let things go because you just can’t afford the things like a doctor or dentist visit
While I’ve tried to maintain a healthy diet, I’m only going to be able to do so as long as I have a home, which probably won’t be much longer now. As for health insurance, well I’ve resorted to doing minor surgery on myself and if my broken tooth keeps getting infected, it looks like I’ll learn how to extract a dead tooth also.
“So the folks claiming that unemployment is structural and we just have to wait for the business cycle to turn around are essentially allowing millions of people to get sicker, more suicidal and in general more at risk. That’s inexcusable…”
InFUCKINGexcusable!
When one is unemployed or underemployed, even with insurance, because of the co payments, one is inclined to avoid those costly visits. Don’t you think?
While I share that attitude to a certain extent, (that it’s easy to talk about from the comfort of secure employment), I think David was trying to address the people with jobs, who don’t know what it’s like. On the other hand, I get the impression that he’s never been 50 and unemployed for two years before. David, it’s worse, FAR worse than you describe. I am glad though that there are still some people with a platform who aren’t just ignoring the problem.
See my # 5. I even wrote a diary about my auto surgery.
I don’t presume to know who David is speaking to. Nevertheless.
Nor do I. I was engaging in speculation. DDay almost never comments himself.
Perhaps a diary about the reality of being unemployed by someone who actually is…
Formulating…
Do the diary, Margaret. Please.
Actually, I doubt that you and I are the only ones here who are unemployed, so that others might relate. But, I hear ya, Peg. Yeah, do it. Tell the peeps what it feels like. Although you and I have shared some of our trepidations in our comments, a diary might be just the thing.
Oh I’m hip. Plenty of FDL people unemployed or underemployed. Writing the diary now. Will publish tomorrow.
Good girl. I’ll be there to add my .02. :) Encouragement and best wishes.
To Margaret and Demi, Thanks for the info about the lunch. I really was just asking for info so I would know where the fun was going to be. I hope there will be a replay so I can get there as well. Sounded like alot of fun…looking forward to meeting the Central TX delegation. ;)
I’m so glad you’re a happy woman. (Praise) I really am. We need more of that. I’m just hoping that there will be an opportunity for Peggy there and that all y’all will have chances to meet up together more and more in the future.
How you doing out there? Did you get an exercise plan in place? Boy, do I talk about it…
Dropping back in here.
Being unemployed for a long time is worse than you can imagine, David. Thank you for making this much known.
My neighbor down the road has been unemployed longer than I have. She was able to get food stamps because her unemployment benefits no longer interfere with her income level. She went to pieces because on foodstamps she can’t even buy soap or toilet paper. That’s right! No soap or paper products, just food. Not even aspirin to ease the stress headaches.
I am still better off than she is, but not by much. If I have meat in the freezer I have to plan when I can cook it. That sounds crazy, but I’m not teasing. If you can only have meat twice a week, it becomes an obsession and you have to think about every meal, everything you do because even keeping a lamp or two on drives up the power bill.
Oh I read your diary and fully understand the situation. While not totally unemployed I am trying to make it on a part time barely above minimum wage.
It’s the dealing with the jobs on both a micro and macro level that I try to discuss on my blog which I usually cross post to MyFDL as well.
Although my main health complaint is having my teeth fall apart and not being able to afford the dentist (plus needing my eyes checked and not being able to afford that either)
I’m doing well. Regarding the exercise thing, I regret to say I’ve not succeeded. The biggest workout I’ve had in the past few days was helping a handful of folks at church in taking down the Xmas Tree Lot. Jeez! There were only 8 of us working our butts off for two hours. Felt like four. Everyone wants to party, but no one wants to clean. The thing is, I learned a good lesson about just keeping on until it’s done. There was X amount of work, and the calvary wasn’t coming to help. My back was killing me, but we just had to keep at it until it was all completed. Big project. But, worth what I received in reflection and love.
Hope to be back in Austin soon and we have promised to stay close. We’d all love to have you too. :)
Okay. Diary is mostly finished, just needing editing, a conclusion and supporting links. Will publish tomorrow.
Sounds good to me….You know I am with you in the job search. It’s out there.
Jim White is upstairs!
Obama’s Cowardice on Guantanamo Continues, Unites Insurgents Against US
Thanks, Lurk. You’re so cute. :)
While this is an interesting topic from the point of view of health care professionals, epidemiologists and progressive policy wonks; for the political/business class that runs this nation, how is this a bug, not a feature?
G’Night, if you come back. Thanks for the help this am.
I suspect that political project of the Washington elite and their banker friends is to give the United States a high-unemployment, low-personal security economy. The chronically unemployed won’t function as a reserve army of ready to work laborers but as members of a surplus population. A surplus population in this context may be defined as a collection of individuals unneeded by the economy. They are unexploitable and their needs just drive up the price of the commodities needed by the employed. They will be tolerated by the federal government because genocide is politically unacceptable now and should remain so in the future. Today America jails many of these individuals. They tend to be male, uneducated, poor and black. But as the real unemployment rate climbs to 25% and higher we’ll see the pool of the unneeded populated by individuals with education, skills, experience, white skin, etc.
The above, I believe, depicts the larger context in which the party duopoly struggles to eviscerate Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. The elite in America do not have kind and generous thoughts when they think of the unneeded poor.
So what has our government done about it? They made sure HCR would have no public option and would not go into effect until 2014. They cut off unemployment benefits to millions of Americans, many after 73 weeks, while giving the wealthiest 1% personal and corporate tax cuts diguised as a jobs stimulus bill. Instead of focusing on the structural and high unemployment issue, all they can talk about is more austerity for the middle-class and the working poor, while they continue to give billions away to the wealthiest Americans.
I watched Howard Dean sell out this morning on CNBC by agreeing that we need to cut Social Security and Medicare and that some of the ideas of the deficit commission should be adopted by the Democrats.