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Initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of unemployment, fell to a 29-month low last week, plunging under 400,000 for the first time since July 2008. 388,000 people sought jobless benefits for the first time last week.
I suppose the fact that it’s Christmas week could have something to do with this, but that didn’t hold in 2008 or 2009. Expectations were around 415,000, so this is far below expectations.
This continues the mix of good and bad economic news coming out in the past several days. On the good side, you have this first-time jobless report, reflecting a steady downward trend. Holiday shopping season boosted retail sales, and manufacturing and production increased. And there’s more good news today: bank loans to businesses are increasing, which is a very good sign, though the gains are slight and reflect more of a bottoming out than a surge in lending. State and local tax revenues rose in the third quarter, and are slowly coming back, though they are also below the peak.
At the same time, the housing market showed signs of a double dip with falling prices and consumer sentiment inexplicably fell. Even inside this report, the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased to 4.13 million, a bigger jump than expected. 8.87 million people claimed unemployment benefits of one type or another in the week ending December 11. While the topline numbers presage job gains, perhaps even significant ones, there are so many “shadow unemployed,” discouraged workers who would come back to the labor force if the job market improved, that the unemployment rate is unlikely to budge in the near future.
I hate to pull out that dreaded word “uncertainty,” but with the housing market, state and local budget shortfalls and the Congressional fight over spending all still unresolved, it’s not yet prudent to say if the economy is due for a rebound in the job market in 2011. But we can be happy for this one data point of good news.
UPDATE: Factory data in the Midwest increased at its highest rate since 1988.
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It astonishes me that they are saying the recession is over and hiring is picking up. I just don’t see it and I just don’t feel it. Our schools continue to cut back because of budget shortfalls. And that’s because of revenue shortfalls at the state level, and that’s because of revenue shortfalls at the federal levels. Stores, restaurants, coffee shops, continue to close and homes for sale continue to sit unsold.
I’m sure that will be a great comfort to me while I’m living under a bridge. Let’s break out the party hats.
Jobless Claims below 400,000, they will soar back to record highs in 2011
Retailers loss a billion dollars in holiday sales due to the Blizzard along the east coast.
Cathy is correct there is no recovery!
coming in 2011
$4.00 per gallon gas (High Gas prices will give this USA DEPRESSION more energy in 2011, and make it more severe)
record foreclotures
99ers losing everything
masses public layoffs
fed wage freeze
these are not FDR ideas, this is straight out of the HOOVER PLAYBOOK
USA companies hire abroad, this says it all
USA citizens have a govt that hates them, and corporations that will not hire them.
Game Over!!! until the USA gets real leaders in DC
Take a hard look at the non-seasonally adjusted claims, before cheering. Some argue that the non-seasonally claims are more accurate. The non-seasonally adjusted claims this week were up to 521,834 a 24,879 increase over last week’s non-seasonally adjusted claims of 497k. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-print-388k-far-lower-expectations-418k-non-seasonally-adjusted-claims-jump-52
Do the same with the pending existing home sales data, it paints a different picture. CNBC reported this AM that the data from Oct. had been revised downward which makes the Dec month over month data look better. From the NAR http://www.realtor.org/ro/research/zzm564noweff43m890afn43a24rggogne/phs1011.pdf
While NEW claims may be down, that doesn’t touch the millions of 99ers who have just fallen off the rolls, keeping the real jobless numbers artificially deflated. The fact is that unemployment is on the rise again and the so called “double dip” started months ago. Anybody paying the least attention (to anything but Wall Street and the fucking stock market) noticed it then. The more people who become ineligible for UI benefits, the worse the economy is going to grow because jobs simply aren’t being created through anything but attrition and a lot of those are then going overseas.
The rape of a republic by corporate aristocrats! Just what Jefferson warned of! Slave owners at least had an economic interest in slaves. They where considered property thanks to Taney! Now thanks to the Robert’s Court and Citizens United, corporations, now are “people” as slaves where once considered property. Now we all suffer the consequences of:
myopic fucking corporate greed!
Justice Roberts, your legal decision concerning Citizens United.simply sucks It is even more egregious and suck even worse than Taney’s, Scott decision. Both legal decision should “shock the conscience” of Americans except for those money grubbing fuck-heads with clear fuck-head mentalities, like slave owners????????????????????
Let US protect the modern day slave owners who exploit Americans as slaves where once exploited and used and for their uncompensated energy, by aristocratic landowners, unwilling to adhere to the principles and law established by constitution, in their lust for profit. $5.00 dollar gas by 2012? The gutting of a nation by corporate energy whores, just like slave owners. Corporate Servitude enabled under the color of law? Let us recall a story concerning a certain King and his colonial cohorts in corporate crime attempting to leverage “people” into servitude, to a King! Wake up America you are once again being fucked. Fucked hard!
I’m going to go ahead and reserve judgment on this for the time being. Give it a month or two and let’s see where it’s at.
On the other hand, maybe anyone who might possibly be unemployed at some point in time has already been accounted for..or croaked. /s
Margret if I could I would give you my unemployment benefits that I have stopped collecting. Unfortunately I live in Missouri. Please know that you are in my thoughts. I hope things for you in 2011 are better than 2010. I sincerely mean that. I have read your diaries and you bring a perspective that a lot of people don’t see, myself included. Thanks for your insight and perspective on everyday matters.
I will wager that next week’s report will be a similar number but that the numbers of initial claims will spike back upwards in two weeks, after the “holidays” – of course it will be a “surprise” to all the economists when it happens.
Bingo. The numbers might be somewhere in the ballpark, but the question is why?
The half-nutty Ross Perot said, “The devil is in the details..” He got that one right.
Now nearly the whole populous has been enslaved, there’s more than one way to keep people in bonds
actual unemployment is around 17% , which is far higher than the 9.8% that’s reported
And that doesn’t take into account those who are underemployed and working 2 part-time jobs.
Margret, the non-seasonally adjusted numbers clearly show that new claim are up not down.
Actually I think that the U6 number (which is the 17% figure) does include the underemployed. But even then it is most likely another low ball figure.
The “self employed,” the “independent contractors,” and the “freelancers” are also missing from all the reporting – another one of the ways to keep the real figures from over whelming people
Enslaved and loving it? Fuck this BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tangential– Will news of class-action lawsuit against JP Morgan and HSBC eclipse meaningless US Congressional Patriot Theater™?
Cafferty Faucher LLP filed a lawsuit December 27th on behalf of a class that includes purchasers and sellers of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE-Arca “SLV”) and the ETF Securities Ltd. Silver Trust (NYSE-Arca “SIVR”) during the period March 1, 2008 through the present:
(excerpt from “Cafferty Faucher LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit against JPMorgan and HSBC Alleging Manipulation of Silver Bar Financial Products,” Dec. 27, 2010)
The lawsuit also alleges that defendants violated federal antitrust law in addition to the claims made under the anti-manipulation provisions of the Securities Exchange Act and the Commodity Exchange Act.
Wait for it. Wait for it!! Here it comes from the right wing media……………….’This is a direct result of the tax cut. It’s working already!!’ Sadly, their captive audience will eat this up like creamy pudding for desert.
Agree that these numbers lie, as usual, and are not truly factual. I notice this JUNK “economics” is all over the place; obvious propoganda for the masses. Too bad that too many will drink this KOOL AID and cheer on New Year’s eve.
This nation is headed towards some really hard times ahead, and our wealthy greedy oinking Oligarchs won’t be satisfied until the US populace makes Dorothea Lang’s photos look like aristocracy.
Best of luck to the serfs.
The recession is over and hiring is picking up. It’s true. Some industries are still lagging, and unemployment always lags, but corporate profits are way up, corporate revenues are slightly up, and if housing ever stabilizes things will start moving full-speed again.
It’s already been a long and bloody recession. But really, it’s over now. There are still structural problems in the economy, but the recession is really truly over. If you’re an investor or a businessperson, it would be wrong to miss the forest for the trees on the overall direction of the economy.
Yeah, that 20% to 25% work force that is in long term un/underemployment or locked out of jobs due to age or location, well it just sux to be them so long as corporate profits and the stock market are up.
Those “trees” you’re talking about in the “forest” are dying or already dead – which means there ain’t a lot of life in that “forest” called the US economy.
Nations like the USA are always destroyed by a few idiots from within.
The reason americans are not rioting in the streets right now, is because the ELITES brought the USA media. (Walter Cronkites are not allowed on the airwaves anymore)
If Fox news was own and run by Russia, China, Iran, it would have been NUKE by the USA military for being a terrorist organization.
Our forefathers did not see a day where Rupert Murdoch would create phony news station to trick and manipulate americans and the Govt full of crooked aristocrats would sit by and watch the USA die from within.
the MSM screams Great Recession! to keep americans confused and lacking self esteem, it is hard to fight back, when you think you are the only person doing bad.
the facts don’t lie
record number of americans on food stamps
record number of homeless
record number of foreclotures
99ers are losing everything
What do we get from the loving USA news media? nothing but crickets
The moment was always to big for OBAMA, doing this great depression, where millions of his citizens need help!, Obama plays golf in HAWAII! :)
Now everyone knows why FDR was the greatest USA president ever! FDR put the USA citizens FIRST!
Try 22% unemployment.
EDIT: I added the word “unemployment”
are you living in CHINA?
you must be!
Dave Clark says
“U.S. home foreclosures jumped in the third quarter and banks’ efforts to keep borrowers in their homes dropped as the housing market continues to struggle, U.S. bank regulators said on Wednesday.
The number of foreclosures in process increased to 1.2 million, a 4.5 percent increase from the second quarter and a 10.1 percent increase from a year ago, according to the regulators.”
what is the biggest asset most american have? their homes
“The US dollar is likely to fall further during 2011, according to Peter Cardillo, Economist Avalon Partners.”
the dollar falling will increase gas prices to let say $4.50 a gallon, can you say deep DEPRESSION
WASHINGTON BLOG REPORTS THIS!
Meredith Whitney, Nouriel Roubini (and here), Zillow, Case-Shiller and even S&P have been calling a double dip in housing.
States and Cities In Worst Shape Since the Great Depression
States and cities are in dire financial straits, and many may default in 2011.
California is issuing IOUs for only the second time since the Great Depression.
Things haven’t been this bad for state and local governments since the 30s.
Loan Loss Rate Higher than During the Great Depression
Food Stamps Replace Soup Kitchens
1 out of every 7 Americans now rely on food stamps.
While we don’t see soup kitchens, it may only be because so many Americans are receiving food stamps.
Indeed, despite the dramatic photographs we’ve all seen of the 1930s, the 43 million Americans relying on food stamps to get by may actually be much greater than the number who relied on soup kitchens during the Great Depression.
again I ask do you live in CHINA?
the USA is not in recovery, more like total collapse
Bullshit!
I can only hope you’re not an investor or a businessperson then. Because the FOREST that you’re ignoring is the impending wave of LOTS MORE FORECLOSURES and the austerity programs likely enacted next year.
Wonder how much they paid him/her to write that bulls..t ?
“The reason americans are not rioting in the streets right now, is because the ELITES brought the USA media. (Walter Cronkites are not allowed on the airwaves anymore)”
I don’t think so. There’s still a meager safety net in place. The trains are still running – so to speak – and there’s bread on the table – even at $4 a loaf. Conditions aren’t right yet for revolution – as if any charismatic personality is even calling for a revolution – but – as I argue to my dicky republican banker bro-in-law, if the rich keep pushing, they will soon need private armies to keep them safe. If Republicans really trash SS – with Democrats help, no less, and WHITE middle American really begin to feel the pinch – if Grandma Whitebread is eating Alpo – then we might see some action. But at this point, it’s blacks and browns doing the most suffering – whitey still thinks the cavalry is coming over the hill. But they’re not…
Heh, a lot of the comments on this site have moved completely away from fact-based reasoning or analysis. It doesn’t matter what Obama does, you’ve all decided to hate him. It doesn’t matter if every objective economic indicator is positive, you don’t believe it. It doesn’t matter if the economy turns around, because some people will still be in poverty. If you judge the economy by those worst-off, we’re always in recession.
The tax deal was a mistake, even though it’s popular. Polls showing its popularity are lies. Obama is more popular with Democrats than he has been since the first months of his presidency – that’s more lies from lying liars. And the easily deceived masses that don’t know what’s good for them.
I think some people on this site need to ask themselves if they’re opposing anything and everything Obama does just because they’re not happy. Or if they’re willfully ignoring political and economic realities out of spite.
Nice strawmen you’re constructing there.
1) We don’t hate Obama. We do however not have much respect for him since he’s managed to continue all the worst aspects of BushCo policy.
2) You are apparently writing off one quarter of the US population with your “If you judge the economy by those worst-off, we’re always in recession.” Obviously, you are gainfully employed in something approaching your chosen career field.
3) Yet at the same time you are mocking us for questioning the strength of the economy, you turn right around and mock people who support the tax cut extension (another broken Obama promise)
4) Seeing that there are over 20% of the work force either un or underemployed, without adding in all the “independent contractors, freelancers, and self-employed” it is you are willfully ignoring current economic reality. Enjoy your self satisfied perch and doG help you if you see your job go away along about age 55 or so.
I do hate liars.
Obama said: “I’ll bring the rule of law back to the White HOuse”
Obama did: continue renditions, torture, and announced to Congress that he has the authority to assassinate American citizens. He also went out of his way to not only not have his DOJ prosecute past violators of the law (Bush/Cheney), wikileaks informs us that he used foreign ambassadors to ensure they weren’t prosecuted in foreign countries either. There is NO RULE OF LAW if you don’t hold people accountable that violate it.
Obama said: “I’ll extend the tax cuts for the middle class but will end them for the rich.”
Obama did: extend the cuts for the rich AND made the estate tax even better than it was at any time during the Bush presidency. He CHOSE to do this and therefore now OWNS it.
Obama said: “I’ll close GITMO within a year.”
Obama did: Put on a show of closing GITMO though it’s still open to this day. George Bush created GITMO without a vote from Congress as Commander in Chief, Obama could’ve closed GITMO without a vote from Congress as Commander in CHief.
I could go on and make this post 126 pages but won’t.
As far as the economy is concerned, if you’re not taking into account the looming foreclosures and the very real threat of the new R House to get very real cuts in spending next year, then you’re only fooling yourself, not anyone here.
I think you need to ask yourself if you really support the above mentioned policies (and countless others) or if you’re defending them merely because they came from an administration with a D in it’s name instead of an R. Betting when Bush did these very same things you railed against him (rightly so), but it’s wrong to not do the same to Obama.
I saw this report on CNN “the most trusted name in news” (TM)…….what a joke….clap louder…….LESS people filed for unemployment having lost their jobs??? OK……..um….so people are still getting laid off…so we cheer because, what, there aren’t as many as last month? Huh? Talk about cherrypicking! Wait until they adjust it after all the retailers lay off all those low wage staff from Christmas.
America, brainwashed by men and women in “…little black boxes?”
Caving on FISA did it for me.