ADP, which typically sends out a private employment report just days before the official employment summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, predicted a massive employment surge for December, with private payrolls increasing by 297,000.
Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised down but only slightly, from the previously reported increase of 93,000 to an increase of 92,000.
This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate. After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000. Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report.
Keep in mind that public-sector jobs are not included in the ADP report, and that there is often a lot of discrepancy between ADP and the BLS survey. Still, the trend line in unquestionably positive. This would actually be a report that would lower the unemployment rate. The consensus was only for an increase of 100,000.
There needs to be a perspective that we are in a deep, deep jobs hole. Growth would need to be incredibly large. And to temper this report somewhat, consider that the Federal Reserve saw no change in the economic landscape in its last meeting that would necessitate scaling back their quantitative easing program.
The Fed minutes from its 14 December policy meeting revealed that “the pace and size of the overall purchase programme” would depend on the strength of the recovery.
“However, some members indicated that they had a fairly high threshold for making changes to the programme,” the notes said.
“While the economic outlook was seen as improving, members generally felt that the change in outlook was not sufficient to warrant any adjustments.”
The Fed pointed to the stubbornly high unemployment rate of almost 10%, and continued weakness in the housing market.
It also questioned the strength of consumer spending among poorer households.
Last year around this time, the White House economic team looked at the reversal of fortune in the jobs numbers, from negative to positive, and let their foot off the gas pedal a bit. That led to a really bad patch in midsummer, when the euro crisis froze up the economy. There are plenty of similar crises on the horizon that could derail this uptick.
But all things being equal, I’d rather have 297,000 more Americans at work than the alternative. We’ll see what the BLS survey says on Friday.




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we do not think that ADP ( Automated Data Processing ) has been correct about any of its supposed job figures that it has released in quite some time, if ever.
its numbers get touted when the numbers are supposedly GOOD but when actual government numbers come in much LOWER nobody remembers that ADP was way off.
but boy the parasites and leeches, oh excuse us, wall street and investors love them some ADP when it touts crap like 297,000.
seriously, are you f***ing kidding us ??? where ??? and what kind of jobs ???
we are not the only people that think ADP is full of sheet and should be completely ignored.
Sorry ADP, Not Everyone Believes the Economy Created 297,000 Jobs
That big positive surprise this morning from the ADP jobs report was nice while it lasted – which was all of about 30 seconds by market standards.
Unfortunately, a number of traders and economists aren’t willing to take seriously the report that ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors put out suggesting the economy created 297,000 jobs over the past month.
A quick straw poll this morning showed a lot of disbelief in the ADP numbers, and the report did virtually nothing to move the stock market, though futures pared some losses immediately after the release.
But don’t expect many major revisions for Friday’s Labor Department report, expected to show nonfarm job increases of 140,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 9.7 percent.
“ADP has had some spectacular misses and I’m a little bit hesitant at this point to fully buy into the data,” said Joe LaVorgna, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. “We think we’ll eventually get there, but this is one of those things where seeing is believing.”
Economists generally distrust the ADP numbers because the methodology is different than what Labor uses when compiling its reports. The firm’s numbers almost never match the government totals.
“To think that we got 300,000 jobs will be the surprise. It will be no surprise if once more ADP got it wrong,” said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
Zach Pandl at Nomura Securities International broke it down further: He pointed out that ADP’s three greatest distortions all happened from December payrolls. That’s because companies will, for tax purposes, keep employees listed on payrolls even if they’re not being paid. The employees are usually purged in December, but ADP has “had had problems seasonally adjusting these December figures,” Pandl said in a note to clients.
“Given these distortions and ADP’s spotty track record in predicting the BLS count of private employment, we are leaving our forecasts for Friday unchanged,” Pandl said.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sorry-ADP-Not-Everyone-cnbc-4102565386.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
so, basically, ADP is full of sheet, has been for quite some time and is used mostly for propaganda and to spread bullsheet. can we put ADP on ignore in the future ???
WOW!
I take it you are not a ADP fan
Good Information
thanks
Temporary, christmas, low paying jobs are not jobs.
Yep, and since those temp jobs don’t make one eligible for UI we’ll never know how many of those jobs disappeared between 26 – 31 Dec.
Anybody who believes either the industry or govt employment numbers still believes in the Tooth Fairy.
Exactly what I thought. Big effen deal. There’s ALWAYS an uptick in private sector jobs in Nov/Dec. It’s called the Christmas retail rush. So what? I’m glad some citizens got some small amount of work (and pay) for at least that time period, but how long do these jobs last? And how many of them were full-time? And how many were more than just minimum wage (or slightly above that)??
Those questions are more to the point. These aren’t full-time permanent decently paying jobs, I’ll bet.
Thanks for the report, but I’m leaning with newz4all on this one. A load of bunkum in the long run signifying not much. I’ll be more than happy to be proved completely wrong, however.
It’s seasonal, nothing more.
Not long ago I thought the “Obama Change Fairy” was going de-crapify the government statistics. I am such a moron!
It’s seasonal…..the fact that they are touting a seasonal increase as very,very good……something ain’t right.
Wait until they drop the corporate tax rate. That should really spur some actual investment in this country.
The only indicator which seems to be somewhat reliable is the number of people on foodstamps.