When this came down a while ago on Al Arabiya, the collective response from the Twitterati was that this signals the end of the Mubarak regime:
Egypt’s powerful military said yesterday it would not open fire on protesters as a coalition of Egyptian opposition groups called for a million people to take to Cairo’s streets today.
“To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the legitimate rights of the people … have not and will not use force against the Egyptian people,” an army statement said.
The Mubarak government seems to know this as well, as they responded to this statement with a round of bargaining.
Egypt’s new vice president said on Monday that President Hosni Mubarak has authorized him to open a dialogue with the opposition for constitutional and political reforms. The vice president, Omar Suleiman, did not offer any further details.
It was not immediately clear who Mr. Suleiman was addressing his offer to, or whether the opposition would accept. Throughout the protests, the overriding demand of the protesters has been Mr. Mubarak’s resignation.
Exactly. There’s only one reform on offer, and that’s the removal of Mubarak from the equation. Dialogue can only begin after that is fulfilled, according to the protesters.
Now, the police did return to the streets today, the same day that the army said they would not do the dirty work of the regime. However, we saw on Friday, when the police were repressing the protesters, that the military would stand in between the two groups and protect the citizenry. The activists did not see this as the end completely, but at this point Mubarak can only sustain his rule through repression. He can stop communications, he can cancel train services (which he did today), he can change cabinet ministers (although, hilariously, he decided today to leave the old foreign minister, the minister of information and the defense minister in place) but that will not stop the protesters. Only the kind of crackdown we saw in Iran in 2009 will do the trick. And that threat has to be credible. Without the support of the military, I don’t see the credible threat.
Tomorrow protesters want to initiate a “million man march” and a general strike. It could be the biggest day of events yet. US and Canadian nationals still in Cairo are being airlifted out.
(Personal note: The Roundup will come a bit later today. I’m going to be on The Alyona Show on RT talking about my article on the Uncloak the Kochs rally.)



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It looks as though the Revolution is ready to announce checkmate.
Heck, when Jimmeah says he has to go the party is over. :-D
no one is set to replace Mubarak at this point – the street rejects the politicians
now that is a bit like I have felt over the years – but it does not lead to a change that is “the people’s choice”
It will be interesting to see how this goes forward – I think caretaker Mubarak with fall elections that are monitored by Carter with a progressive ballot and min-election in August to narrow the field to 2 persons would seem to make the most sense – but who knows what “the street” will chose.
I’d also like Mubarak to return the $30 billion now in Switzerland.
The Army’s pledge makes me wonder if they, too, are sick of the wealth disparities in their country.
Others may have posted these, but Nomi Prins – former managing director of Goldman Sachs is positing that the Egyptian people are rebelling against being pillaged by giant, international banks and their own government (whether or not they’ve made the connection, as in the US):
She links to a Mark Engler piece at Dissent Magazine; he agrees with her on what underlies the ‘spontaneous’ uprising, and explains more on how US foreign aid works, or doesn’t work:
“But a huge percentage of U.S. foreign aid is not meant to ease poverty or foster humane development, nor is it backed by any progressive intention. Rather, it is given out basically in the form of bribes to various regimes so that they will align themselves with U.S. geopolitical interests. As Juan Cole further notes in his Democracy Now interview, a large amount of aid money meant for foreign countries actually serves to subsidize U.S. corporations, which are contracted to produce goods or services (or armaments or farm surplus) that are then sent abroad. The actual utility of these things for aid recipients is questionable, and any benefits to the poor in recipient countries are at best indirect.
Aid to the Egyptian government is a nice case in point. Even though it is notoriously undemocratic, the Mubarak regime has for decades received a massive amount of U.S. aid, both military and non-military. We’re talking billions of dollars per year, regularly placing Egypt just behind Israel on lists of top recipients. But the United States has no incentive to demand any sort of accountability for the aid. On the contrary, our leaders have incentives to use aid flows as pork for our corporations and to allow the Egyptian government to siphon off the remaining largess however it wishes. An attitude of permissiveness makes the aid all the more effective as a means of ingratiation.”
It’s worth reading.
I don’t believe anything the Egyptian military sez, any more than I would believe anything the U.S. military sez.
Would be amazing if they rejected western centralized government and moved towards real democracy. For good reason, they know they can’t trust anyone or any party to not become tools of the west. Nor do they want to empower fundamentalists who may rule just as harsh or worse than Mubarak, though in opposition to the west.
It’s already known the US has had its hand in some of the opposition. Anyone with common sense would rightly suspect this is to ensure a new government is as friendly/subservient as the last one to US interests, not because they hated Mubarak and wanted to help free the Egyptian people.
“As Juan Cole further notes in his Democracy Now interview, a large amount of aid money meant for foreign countries actually serves to subsidize U.S. corporations, which are contracted to produce goods or services (or armaments or farm surplus) that are then sent abroad. The actual utility of these things for aid recipients is questionable, and any benefits to the poor in recipient countries are at best indirect.”
That is the truth – and has been our “aid” policy since Ike and the cold war -becoming more round trip to our corporations since Reagan. Indeed that fact is the only reason US foreign aid continues – it is a welfare check to our corporations – our corporations that run our government and the rich that run them are not very generous – to anyone.
So, tomorrow morning would be tonight here, is that correct? In terms of following the “newz”.
Gotta stay glued.
Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday.
I try not to worry.
egypt is 7 hours ahead of the east coast, so it’s 2am there now
pass this link around, it’s ways for egyptians to get around the cell phone and internet blocks:
http://pastebin.com/9jJUku77
You must be the only one.
Not just the money Mubarak has stole from the Egypt’s Citizens.Thay need to take the money from the financial elite.Cost of doing business.Then create a social safetynet for the Egyptian Citizens bottom up.
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen David Dayen:
First of all, your posting on this crisis and the quality of your analyses are truly amazing and have earned you an oakleaf cluster to go on your previously well-earned Norske Medal of Citizenship. As I have said here before, I think that history has offered Obama a moment to use this crisis to drive a huge wedge into the fault line between our military and the oiligarchy’s civilian security apparatus. In so doing he could give Mrs. McClinton the means to DE-militarize our foreign policymaking and provide her with some leverage over the corporate stooges in the CIA…and the implications for our politics would be immense.
I don’t think that Obama has the chops to pull it off ,however, but if the kids in Cairo have taught us anything, it’s that American made emperors have no cloths…and I’m still wonderin’ why we don’t have thousands out demonstrating support for our Egyptian brothers and sisters. This whole thing was custom made for Obama to put America out in front on the right side of history. Do ya think Obama has the imagination to see it?
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE WAR IS NOW ON OUR FRONT PORCH!!
Citizen eCAHNomics:
“I don’t believe anything the Egyptian military sez…”
Well, that would make sense except that they are out amongst the mass of people and they have long been separated from the masses by the secret police and security thugs. Mrs. Norske and I have been doin Al Jazeera 24/7 for about 3 days now and a common thread from many Egyptian commentators is the bond between the army and the people that goes back to Nasser. The fact that the army has been used as an army and has earned it’s stripes gettin its ass kicked by the Israelis has innoculated them from the fear and hatred that goes with repression of civilian masses. The army owes it’s special status to the largesse of the US government and military so Mubarak has no leverage over ‘em…but WE do.
Hard to take, papau. I grew up watching huge crates of food stamped ‘CARE’ being unloaded from cargo planes. Maybe it’s goofy, but I think there was a time that at least some of our aid was altruistic.
I trust the Egyptian army not to fire on their own people far more than I’d trust the American military (including reserves & guard units) not to fire on it’s own people these days.
I think we need to step back from the old Cold War mentality in our foreign relations. Clearly the people America has helped put in power have been as toxic, or moreso, than the folks they supplanted. I grew up in the 60s having been taught the quaint idea that Americans didn’t tolerate tyranny. by 2010, I’ve become disabused of that entirely as the roots of tyranny grow deeper in our own soil.
Hosnoi is thinking — hmmm… Saddam or Pinochet — how do I want to go out? hmm… after a little temper tantrum I think we know which one he will choose (hopefully).