Egyptian protesters credit the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia with providing the spark that got them out into the streets. But Egypt has a much larger profile worldwide. So will their revolution, if successful, continue this chain?
Already we’re seeing some signs. Protests have already occurred in Yemen and Jordan. Sudanese youths want to get out into the streets like their African bretheren, and you have to wonder whether they actually kicked this off themselves, through the revolution by ballot, the expected successful secession in the south of the country. And we could also see a return for the Green Movement in Iran, which was violently put down after fraudulent elections in 2009.
Protests in Egypt calling for the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak have also reinvigorated Iran’s opposition, triggering calls to regroup. After contested presidential polls in the summer of 2009, hundreds of thousands of Iranians poured onto the streets to protest the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, amid allegations of voter fraud.
Iranian government forces snuffed out the demonstrations with violence, mass arrests, the suspension of Internet and phone service and broad intimidation. The streets of Tehran and most other Iranian cities have been mostly quiet since early last year.
But on Sunday, the main student activist website, Daneshjoo News, issued a statement calling for a big opposition demonstration on the anniversary of the Islamic Republic on Feb. 12th. Bloggers also are calling on opposition leaders to rejoin the fray.
That’s just two weeks away. Iran’s protesters were early adopters to these tactics, and are getting strength from the very movements that got strength from them.
I would guess that these are the thoughts that keep US policymakers up at night. They had little problem from repressive but stable autocrats in the Muslim world. This construct guided US policy for at least 50 years, and they’re likely to be much more comfortable with the devil they know.
They need to rethink this. I don’t want to sound triumphalist, and it’s entirely possible that this movement toward democracy could fizzle in the short term. But in the long term, I think we can say that this will be the emerging trend. Many Muslim societies are extremely young, with a majority of citizens under 30. They are growing up in a new world, far more exposed to worldwide events, and they want the freedom that they believe comes with citizenship. I don’t think that’s preventable over time.
That means it’s time to rethink the entire notion of propping up dictators that can work in accord with US interests as the basis for international relations in the Muslim world. And from Ben Ali to Mubarak to whoever else, the citizens will not accept the dictator to cloak himself in the garb of the reformer. They do not have the credibility, and neither does anyone who just blandly calls for “reform.”
So whether these protests move now or in the future, it’s clear they will move. And US foreign policy must adapt to these changing events, as they cannot for much longer accept repression in the name of national security.
…The million-dollar question here is oil. It’s probably a good time to develop a new energy economy so there isn’t this reliance on a region where you have to make the decision on supporting dictatorships.




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“It’s probably a good time to develop a new energy economy . . .” Absolutely. I don’t know how they could do it, since their policies toward Latin America have created great resentment there, too, but Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba have vast oil reserves which could ease over-reliance on the Mid-East and enable a smoother transition from oil-based energy to multiple, environmentally friendly ones. Not that it’ll happen, but options are becoming more and more limited lately.
(I just woke up and haven’t read enough of the news to become soured and grumpy by reality yet.)
So Iran is in play also? And our oil supplies are at risk? Shouldn’t be surprising. Indeed, the PTB are going to have a hard time catching a break. It looks like there should be more than enough material for the next version of my annotated bibliography (which is to be retitled “The Jasmine Revolutions” – note the plural). Among other developments:
It can’t even be assumed safely that these protests will be limited to the Muslim world. Here’s another possibility to keep the PTB awake at night: spread of the Jasmine Revolutions to the ex-Soviet republics, followed by Soviet reunification. It does get more complicated when you’re up against the “government” (to the extent that there is one) of a place like Uzbekistan. Despite the hyperbole of bloggers and journalists, neither Ben Ali nor Mubarak were utterly ruthless thugs (although they were blatant dictators); Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan is the real thing. Flipping the army, all-important for the success of any revolution, might also be more of a stretch. Still, ruling out revolution in any dictatorship as far-fetched has had a very poor track record recently. The Chinese have been worried enough to try to censor news from Egypt. Sweet dreams of the Soviet Reunion, my dear PTB.
The PTB – and the American people – should have thought about that quite literally decades ago. There isn’t time now to avoid the risk of economic blackmail if, say, the House of Saud should fall to revolution.
Thanks for reminder about Iran. Surprised Tunisia & Egypt hasn’t inject new oxygen into the Greens yet.
Thank you, Julian Assange. “We open governments”, indeed.
Consider the hegemonic chessboard kicked.
Having said that, here’s a random thought I had today that was OT on the prior thread
Know what I like best about this?
It gives the lie to the idea that only armed-to-the-teeth rebellions can succeed. In both Tunisia and Egypt, the rebellions are succeeding because the armed forces have more compassion and morality than the people ordering them around. The military and police must deal with the people they’re ordered to shoot, they must interact with them on a day-to-day basis. Their leaders just see the masses as so many bugs to be squashed, and try to avoid anything resembling actual interactions with them.
True that. But they can only do that if they’re sure no news gets out.
Not at all. It’s very easy to start a panic with so many people. Govt hands are “clean”, so how would the news matter?
If he doesn’t leave, he better put barriers around the “palace”…that is if he is still there. Suleiman is the really, really nasty guy next in line to get rid of.
The Big Oil and AIPAC whores in Congress (which is most of Congress) must be dumping loads in their trousers. Depsite the total bullshit about the US supporting “democracy” in the mideast, the whole strategy there is built around the coalition of the US compliant thugs and whoring for Israel.
If that were the case, he’d seal his fate for sure…he’d be able to run, but they would get him. Right now, if he leaves, they’ll probably leave him alone. JMHO
If Obama had any political courage, (or didn’t live in the pocket of big corporations) we would be in a much better position to be able to handle this if it spreads to the whole region. Sadly, that wasn’t the case.
I’m definitely in favor of a new energy policy. As a matter of fact, while we are on the hunt to change that we should look into those water policies as well.
Water aquifers and private ownership have become quite vogue lately. :-(
Yes, I’ve also been worried that the barricades are to keep people in.
And all of this oil fear talk has reminded me of Cheney’s secret Energy policy hearings.
It’s long past time for us to look at that.
He has no courage, political or otherwise. In these rather crazy times we need a steady hand in charge and we don’t have it. Can’t even imagine what the outcome will be for our country.
Wow, you want it all right now! Don’t you think we should move incrementally, in a spirit of bipartisanship? :-)
ta da. it was an excellent time to develop a new energy policy forever ago. just tiptoe around big oil and it’s home free.
we could have government incentives for installing solar, wind, etc. in the universe i’d like to see.
the number one reason i bought a prius was to have my driving be less of a cause for u.s. badness in the middle east.
That suddenly occurred to me when AJ kept saying that there were still ways pedestrians could get in. So my next thought was, what could they do with a million corralled protesters. Nothing overt, for sure. So they weren’t gonna gas ‘em or shoot ‘em or anything like that. So my final thought was that a ‘spontaneous’ panic would erupt, and that would ‘solve’ the problem. Mubarak could go on TV and do the “I feel your pain” thingy, and we much all pull together so those lives will not have been lost in vain, or whatever kind of acting he’s good at under those circumstances.
It’s hard to have your hand on the tiller of state when it’s in everybody else’s pockets.
Wish we had a leader in the White House.
Hmmm…they sure have made the greatest efforts to stifle any communication, so it certainly is not out of the realm of the minds of torturers.
Where is the protest in the US against the economy and lack of jobs and healthcare as millions of american slip into poverty. It seems we are only spectators who write in but nothing seems to move us into some action.
Yes, you nailed it! If this is not a clarion call to develop independence from foreign oil, I don’t know what is. Yes, there will be more demonstrations for freedom, for it is a basic human right. Each soul knows intuitively that they should be free and that in reallity they are free. God gives us free will to choose. These are human rights. The internet has exposed and opened up so much dialogue. We are not hidden and separate entities anymore. These young people are not going to be repressed, in Egypt nor here. I would not be surprised if sooner or later there will be a march on Wall Street.
Julian Assange is behind all of this. Years from now, when all of this is behind us, Wikileaks will be recognized for shaking the foundations of the Middle East.
We do have a leader in the Whitehouse. Check out Pres. Obama’s speech in Cairo, Egypt, June 09. It was a call for democracy and for the freedom of people everywhere. Pres. Obama is wise enough to know that freedeom can only come from the action of the people of country involved. He can point the way, but that is all.
A group of elite US marines heading into Cairo to protect the Embassy. per CNN
That’s watered-down horseshit. Obama speechified while still sending detainees to Egypt to be tortured. While still sending billions in aid to the Egyptian military.
Obama CAN point the way, but thus far in his political career he has not chosen to do so. Unless you count Win The Future.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBuMuzhvYeA
Edward Teller pasted this link earlier to a “Spoof” of Sec State
Kissinger’sClinton’s speech re: Egypt.The captions provide the real meaning. IMHO, not a spoof at all.
I’m sure they must have some “advisors” along. Was hoping this would not happen. Don’t see any evidence that the embassy is endangered.
Great. All we need is a cover story for special forces to be on the ground. JSOC, enter stage right.
Most people here have enough to eat. Speaking as one of the long term unemployed, it has been impossible to whip up any kind of effort for systemic change because comfortable people don’t start revolutions. Employed people don’t strike from their jobs to demand action to employ others. People who I know to be as liberal as they come in this country in overwhelming numbers called Obama’s deal to give rich people tax breaks while throwing the 99ers out in the cold, “the best we could get”, mostly because it didn’t affect them. Though the distribution of wealth to the upper end is very acute in this country, we can’t compare our suffering to what the Egyptians have endured. Sorry. You’re just not going to be able to rabble rouse among comfortable, (if morally outraged), people.
Yes. The efforts they’ve already taken to suppress it, discredit it, Mubarak’s obvious intent to stay, finally made me think along new lines.
You forgot the snark tag…
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Yeah, the president believes something because he said it. In a speech. In Cairo.
I remember seeing the president speak live when he was still the candidate at the Xcel in St. Paul, MN. He said that this was the moment we would look back on when sea levels began to go down, Americans were able to save again and afford things, and that we would live up to our best ideals abroad. And I was stupid enough to believe him.
Some people still see the rug after it’s been pulled out from under them.
Oh Valerie…
It’s 10pm in Cairo. Do you know where your dictator is?
FUCK!
That’s all this needs is Marines. Remove everyone and everything from the Embassy instead. Damn.
He just closed up Parliment after introducing his new cabinet. /s
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen David Dayen:
There is an irony of great purportions in this moment in history: America’s political and economic future may very well be tied to the success or failure of the kids in the streets all over Africa. Who said God doesn’t have a sense of humor.
In 1968, if we had been as successful in gaining political support from our parents’ generation (those folks who made up “the greatest generation”…remember them?) as these brave kids have been able to generate from theirs, we would have stopped the war right then and had Ted Kennedy in the White House in 1969.
Our politics must now turn on creating an anti-fascist, popular front inside the Democratic Party from precinct to precinct and county to county…and let’s get some people in the streets over here in support of those brave kids over there.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE REVOLUTION WILL BE TELEVISED ON AL JAZEERA!!
via Twitter just now..
Healthcare law ruled unconstitutional.
Will look for links.
That’s what I’m waiting for. It could be interesting.
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/01/31/income-inequality-egypt/
Think Progress article (link above) says that income equality in the U.S. is worse than in Egypt.
*sigh* I guess the US government has to protect its assets. Not sure how I feel about this development.
The Egyptian military just said that it wouldn’t use force against the people. via Al Jazeera English.
Yes and our food prices are gaining speed to meet theirs.
Citizen Isls:
At least they aren’t Blackwater (Xe) mercs.
Yeah…I’ve heard it’s unconstitutional to promote the general welfare.
Also, as Kolin points out on Juan Cole this morning, the U.S. is a police state, where anti-govt activity has relentlessly been suppressed. So grievances must become overwhelming before you can hope to overcome that, and even then, there’s no guaranty.
Here’s a link
I think it’s unconstitutional to force private citizens to purchase a private product without a public alternative, and to use the IRS as an enforcement tool.
Well if that it why it was deemed unconstitutional, color me shocked. That’s not bad news ‘tall.
I hope the marines don’t make a mistake like firing at an Egyptian citizen. The US should never have done that. :-(
True…I think!
Except for in Cairo…
And a link to the ruling.
That is why. I’m sure EW and David will have posts up soon.
Thank you, ma’am.
I agree. It’s just a building…with a lot of paperwork, cables and such…oh yeah…
I lie, Jim White is upstairs with the breaking news.
Is the US the only country that has sent in a “group of specially trained soliders” to Cairo to protect the embassey?
Citizen PeasantParty:
Take a breath, Mrs. Mc Clinton and ObamaRahma are scared shitless of gettin’ American troops exposed in this thing…I for one am glad that our pseudofeminist Secretary of State has chosen Marines instead of some of the 150,000 or so Blackwater types she spoke so glowingly about during the ’08 campaign.
Upon further thought, now that I hear that the army has said they won’t crush the people, it may well be that the Marines are going to pick up Mubarek.
Maybe the US is anticipating a rooftop rescue of embassy staff or something. Otherwise, sending the marines into Cairo is just one more PR disaster for the USG.
That would be a terrible scenario.
Norske,
I’m thankful for that too, but I am worried how it will be perceived by the Egyptians and the surrounding areas. We should not be using our might in this fight for democracy within the people.
They closed the Embassy yesterday, I think. I’m sure they’ve all left…except for whoever is shredding the torture/rendition documents.
Sure David, because Indonesians always have so much in common with Arabs. One of the things that will hopefully happen in the 21st century since it didn’t happen in the 20th, is that Americans will stop believing that Arabs in the Middle East speak for Muslims even though they don’t believe that people in Rome speak for Californian Unitarians.
Could be, but again, I don’t think the US should be extracting him. He has to have someone else on his side besides the US.
That would be the result of the one collective brain cell of the entire US State department firing at full power. Nothing could be more profoundly stupid.
Citizen Greenwarrior:
Nope, they’re there to keep Mubarak and his Orcs from takin up space on the roof waitin for helicopters that will never show up.
ditto!
LOL.
Of course, my view of sending the Marines, for any reason, is beyond the pale.
Egyptians are 98% Egyptian…and reside on the African continent.
Going upstairs to see what Jim has posted.
Citizen PeasantParty:
I am less worried about trained and disciplined Marines poppin’ a few brain cells under pressure than I am our ridiculously ineffective President. The kids in the street are shrewd and have it together, notice that they aren’t pickin a fight with the military regulars. Now if our Secretary of State would just be as shrewd, we might have sumpthin’!
There’s something in what you say. I was once in the Place de la Concorde (for a rock concert) where there were close to a million people, and I admit to being afraid of what would happen if the crowd panicked. there was simply no place to go.
IMHO, the government of Iran has far more legitimacy among its population than either Egypt or Tunisia.
I think it’s a bit overblown to get worried about an additional 12 Marines sent today to supplement the 30 Marines routinely assigned to guard the Cairo embassy.
Absolutely true. As one of the advocates on FDL of the revolutionary overthrow of blatant dictatorships – an issue I feel shouldn’t even be controversial on the Left! – I get tired of the “bloodthirsty revolutionary” stereotype. Not even Marx and Engels wanted bloodshed – they even thought there might be some nations, including the UK, where Communism might be attained without revolution.
Also, according to Trotsky, the way you describe this revolution’s (likely) success is the way all revolutions ultimately succeed; the army flips to the side of the revolution because they’re an approximate cross-section of the population. Check out these articles, especially the photo with the first and the video with the second, to see how Trotsky’s scenario is already working out in Egypt:
I agree with some of the commentators that Mubarak might well be capable of committing a massacre against his own population; but who is he going to get to carry it out for him? If he did get a super-elite force to do it – say, some of his Air Force pilots to bomb the crowd – what do you think would happen to them afterwards, with the Egyptian Army in the kind of mood these articles depict? Who is going to follow Mubarak’s orders to carry out a massacre when the endgame is trending that way? And would he dare to give such orders, if he wasn’t sure they would be followed?
On the other hand, revolutions can be quite bloody when they’re close calls – when the dictator has significant popular support. Then they take on the character of civil wars. But from what I’m reading, it sounds as if Mubarak has hardly a friend in all of Egypt except for his immediate circle of cronies. That’s why I’m increasingly optimistic about this one.
From 2010-2011 to 1989 to 1981 to 1979 to 1968 to 1917 to 1871 to 1848 to 1789 to 1776 to 1649
These events often come in waves and leave a mark that endures for centuries. It’s becoming clear, I think, that America’s military defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq are providing commoners in the Middle East with a motive to demonstrate against tyranny. They see an opportunity. They have seen that the United States cannot win counterinsurgency wars, wars of attrition against local forces unwilling to submit. America’s military failures and the demonstration effects produced by these failures form the frame in which another generation of revolutionaries can gain hope for the future.
When there is more than one claiment of having sovereign power, that is, when there two competing powers in a country, it is the army which decides the winner or, in the case of violent revolution, the contest between armed revolutionaries and the army determines the winner.
It does seem as though the Army in general supports the insurrectionists. But, we know from history that Armies often have a mind of their own. Hopefully, the Egyptian Army realizes that a military dictatorship will damage Egypt in the short- and long-term.
And started the Pan-Arab Movement with a country called the United Arab Republic, or at least that was what it was called when we had to memorize it in geography class. It still doesn’t matter. The idea that a small area in the corner of the Mediterranean should call the shots for a vast expanse of humanity based on a religion is ludicrous. More likely we all, regardless of heritage, derive something from seeing the Egyptians assert themselves against corruption and dictatorial rule. I’m a Buddhist, but does that mean that if they have a popular uprising against oppression tomorrow in Bhutan, I should pay it special mind over what a Jew in Poughkeepsie should?
Yes, hopefully this is the spark that ignites world wide revolution against globalization, supposed ‘free’ market economic domination of the world. Hopefully in this country as well, where our is very much like egypt. The financial elite robbing us blind, corporate domination of our government, domination of our government by a ruling class that hates democracy and it working hard to destroy it.
Aside from Mubarak’s cronies, who would be recognized as such and rejected immediately by army and people alike, I don’t think anyone in Egypt wants another dictatorship right now – not even potential dictators. Would you want Mubarak’s position at this point? There have been times in history – like the Napoleonic era – when a dictatorship could genuinely be popular with the people, and alluring to the dictator. This isn’t one of those times.
Oh, absolutely, these Jasmine Revolutions have everything to do with globalization. I’m doing some reading on that right now, for inclusion in the next version of my annotated bibliography. Suggestions for further reading are welcomed.
Totally. And in Syria – which was the other half of that United Arab Republic – they’re watching events in Egypt with great interest. This time around, the UAR could end up stretching from Mauritania to Yemen. I’m a world federalist, but I also welcome regional federal unions, like the European Union – and this future UAR, which, although still hypothetical, is not quite as hypothetical as it was a week ago. I believe regional federal unions will be steps toward the ultimate World Federation.