I agree up to a point. The countries that have oil can buy off the opposition. My guess is that the West Bank government, already reeling from the Palestine Papers, is most likely to fall. There are some unconfirmed reports that Abbas has agreed to step down:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/xinhua/2011-02-03/content_1711769.html

Mr. Bolton’s response would be to “Bomb ‘em all”, but only after he buys more stock in the bomb makers. Rumsfeld, Cheney & Co., are telling themselves they didn’t make war on enough “fanatic foreigners with oil”. And we and the rest of the world should be considering how to make peace with the need for governments to represent their citizens rather than their monied elites. That would require, in part, a selflessness more familiarly associated with Canada (outside of its mining industry and its government lackeys) than south of the border.

It’s clear that our policymakers have no idea how to react.

I don’t believe this is true at all. What exactly do you expect them to do? Seems that waiting to see how it all shakes out is the best thing they could do right now, while making plans to deal with the aftermath. The worst thing they could do is attempt to insinuate themselves into the midst of what’s happening, especially with an eye toward controlling any of it. The second worse thing they could do is announce to the world what they are doing.

I’m thinking about the sign on the door when the bigmusic names went into the studio to record We Are The World. The sign said, Leave your egos outside. Berry Gordon said that.
As to this post. I agree that this might be an Arab Revolution. And, I agree that the ME has been At It for a really long time. But, DD might want to think twice about maybe shading it that this is his idea. More than one or two people have thought about this and have tweetblogged spoken up.
Ch Ch Ch Chill, baby. And leave it at the door.

This is particularly rich…

Clinton calls Suleiman, urges probe of violence

…U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Egypt’s newly named vice president to hold accountable those responsible for violence in Cairo on Wednesday, the U.S. State Department said.

Clinton spoke by telephone with Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s intelligence chief who was elevated to vice president by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday, to make the point, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters.

“She emphasized, again, our condemnation of the violence that occurred today, encouraged the government to hold those responsible fully accountable for this violence,” Crowley told reporters. “We don’t know, at this point, who did it.”

We already know who did it… Suleiman’s Apparatchik…! Hellooo…!

“Bomb ‘em all” is becoming – as Osama wanted – the response of some serious people in the west who are not part of the left.

The Muslim Brotherhood has tossed “reasonable opposition” – or redefined reasonable like our tea party folks redefine words – and now say they advocate tossing the peace treaty with Israel and getting it on. Islamic State and Sharia law are now job one.

Hard to see how this ends well – so is Bibi “right” to not trust Arab offers of peace?

The people in the street need support – but they also need to win a non-Muslim Brotherhood controlled end to this.

I just do not see how this ends well.

I dread someone of the ‘Shock Doctrine’ school calculating that their time of opportunity is at hand. Maybe we can foil such moves by keeping together and communicating. Like when TPM (?) put it together that Bush was firing his District Attorneys – keep reporting what’s happening locally.

Yep, Amerika govt. looks the other way, hell for all we know they approve of killing people half way around the world, hell it’s just like any other day.

http://www.kawther.info/wpr/2011/02/01/israeli-death-squads-to-infiltrate-egyptian-protests

Not like we had hoped in the beginning.

Univ Michigan professor Juan Cole synopsis today of Middle East history as it relates to Egypt is very informative. No danger of religious take over given the fabric of Egytian society. Econically they depend a lot on tourism and Suez canal fees unlike the rich oil states. So 80 million arabs strong, close to Isreal, arab issues are arising strongly despite surpression. The Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni and not radical and the population has no fealty to their religoius right like the Shites.
The violence was an expression of the haves versus the have nots. Thugs with security were also paying back for the burned National Democratic HQs. Like a Tea Party that comes back with guns.
Looks like wait it out for Obama and Co. For Mubarek it is play all the cards and set up a elite friendly regime on the way out. Th thugs remind me of the Isreali. Arab Revolt led by the Sharif of Mecca. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Mandate_for_Palestine

The way I see it the biggest problem with US foreign policy is that the same old NeoCon players are giving advice and orders.

H. Kissinger for one! Our foreign policy and the real reaching out across the globe for the benefit of all will not happen while these people are still speaking.

Agree DDay, but one teensey-weensey thing; Pan-Arab would include Irak.

And given the speech Moqtada Al Sadr made a couple weeks ago, doesn’t this also put more pressure on the US to speed up withdrawal?

This could be a huge opportunity to do the right thing; tell Mubarak, shut up and go away, and oh, by the way, we’re putting our money where our mouth is and speeding up the withdrawal timetable right now.

The US would get nothing but Pan-Arab goodwill, for once, and really actually enhance security.

But we won’t do it. Too many neocons in our policy machine.

The Arab states need an emergency meeting to address the issues and create an orderly path to change. I do not see the vehicle as yet.

The U.S. interest in Egypt as in other countries in the ME, has taken an almost cold war Soviet look to it. The influence is almost entirely military. The markets for goods that people buy have been opened to the rest of the world.

Ok What are the most common threads of the uprising Food, Jobs Freedom (what kind of freedom’s do they want)
etc also what else do they want and why?
Why have the various governments not delivered the people what they want? Are all the Elite Ruling classes in the Arab world Straussian, Chicago School of Economics majors?
What has worked in Tunisia what is working in Egypt for both the protesters and the government we should be taking notes the FBI certainly is.

MIC is way to cumbersome to move at the rate events are moving. They like spending tax dollars are war industry and have an army of consultants and contractors. Peaceful solutions are not profitable.

Saying that Mubarak should listen to the will of the people and leave Egypt immediately would go a long way toward restoring some credibility to the US government, IMO. Doing the right thing makes the US government look good, after all.

OMG…who are the PTB gonna have left to bribe? 8-0

“The Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni and not radical” –

but MB today stated their plan to tear up the peace treaty with Israel and have at it. They restated that an Islamic State and Sharia law is their priority.

What is “radical” in government these days?

*heh* Faux Spew’s latest fear mongering…

Chaos Erupts Behind the Scenes at the White House…

Do you have a link for that? I’d be interested to read more…

papau, Muslim Brotherhood is but one minor party amidst numerous suppressed parties..!

Of what is now happening in Egypt, specifically, I think Obama’s foot-dragging gave a de facto green light to Mubaraks’ thugs, if it wasn’t issued, directly, back-channel.

shut up and go away, and oh, by the way, we’re putting our money where our mouth is and speeding up the withdrawal timetable right now.

From your fingers to the goddess ears.

awww, now why’d you have to go and link to that! My eyes were assaulted by teh stoopid in the comments. Couldn’t get past “piggies” at no. 2!

You weren’t supposed to read the comments, Silly…! ;-)

Kiss Kiss speak of the devil:

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/kissinger-praises-obamas-handling-egypt-mubarak-months-most/

“After President Obama’s inauguration, Kissinger famously said it would be his “task” to create “a new world order.”

Well they may be forced into wait and see mode now (though they could certainly take the high ground and call for Mubarak to step down now) They seem to have been caught very flat footed, if our ears on the ground there are so off the mark, what about many other countries?

Why have the various governments not delivered the people what they want?

are they stupid old men who didn’t see the effect internet had on people to communicate?

Any sentence that contains both Kissinger and New World Order leaves a lot to be desired. Why isn’t he in jail, anyway?

Because he is the Godfather of all Neocons.

Yeah, I’m inclined to lean that way also . . . thanks, TB. how ya doin, stay warm n dry the rest of the east is shut down for the most part!

Uh, that would be Leo Strauss methinks . . . ;-)

Living Godfather…I didn’t know Strauss was still alive.

That Arab Spring that George Bush and the neocons [PREDICTED] would come to the region simply by bombing the bejeezus out of Iraq is here because of completely different factors.

Please excuse me for putting on my copyeditor’s hat, but this sentence needs a verb. I’ve suggested one.

“Thinking about this in a regional sense rather than protecting this or that ruling regime may help.”

I don’t think anyone in DC is thinking that big.

“But..but..would that give us an uptick or a downtick in the polls? What does that do for our re-election prospects in 2012? Will it make our corporate donors happy or sad? Will the Republicans be able to score political points? What will Beck and Limbaugh say? What about the price of gas? And OMG what about the most important nation on Earth: Israel? Would that slow down the annexation of Palestine by a couple of days? Will AIPAC cut off campaign funding? Maybe we should just bomb Iran to get the focus back on radical Islamic terror and that smoking-gun-mushroom-cloud thing.”

Mrt. Dayen, you are way out in front of the MSM, as usual.
*G*

Pan Arab Jasmine it is . . .

Cole, Escobar, Engelhardt and others have been discussing the Pan Arab sitch WRT Jasmine . . .

We live in interesting times . . . rcc’d and thanks for all you do, Mr. Dayen.

Heh, whoops no rcc here . . . but kudos nonetheless! lol

Strauss lives on forever in the forms of PNAC and every signer on that despicable document. ;-)

I’m talking about the “go to” guy. Yes, all Neocons are disciples of Strauss..

Pretty good chess move. If he comes out and says what the Egyptians and American media, conveniently, have already been saying today, the Egyptians will probably let him stay and we will have someone that we want in there.

Our government has lost the ability to see farther then the next quarterly earnings report. They can’t even see the Egyptian crisis in terms other then “whats in it for me”/maximize profit.

I ;don’t see why we have to tie our foreign policy to Bibi or any tiny statd that doesn’t have oil in it. We don’t owe Israel anything. Let them sort out their own mess; they made it.

Success of a revolution in any one country — even those in which it is already well underway, currently Tunisia and Egypt — cannot easily be predicted. But, broadly speaking, at this point the PTB will be lucky if these Jasmine Revolutions are merely pan-Arab. More likely, the pattern of distribution will be worldwide. There are more than enough desperately unpopular tyrants and oligarchs out there, and more than enough economic hardship and pessimism, to support a worldwide wave of revolution in 2011.

The Arab world, especially North Africa, and the southern European nations bordering the Mediterranean, such as Albania, have been paying close attention to intensive news coverage of the Tunisian Revolution for weeks. The more recent intensive coverage of the Egyptian Revolution has only been underway for as long as the Revolution itself (less than two weeks), but is receiving close attention worldwide. Thus, the selective response of the Arab world is likely due to exposure bias. Let’s see how the rest of the world reacts over the next month.

If anyone thinks I’m exaggerating, well, no doubt they thought the same when I asked “Who’s next” in a different world — the world of Sunday before last, January 23rd, 2011.

With commodity prices spiraling wildy out of control, food riots become more and more likely. Considering that so much of the current prices are based on speculation–urber rich jerks looking for a good place to put their money–my bet is that there will be a number of elites who will be confronted by torch and pitchfork mobs.

Did you catch his comment about what is going on in Egypt as being the first Scene of the first Act? God only knows what these NeoCon, globalist thugs have on the drawing board. They will do anything to remain in control.

Very few people are aware Jeb Bush was part of the PNAC cabal.. Of course, most people in the US have never heard of PNAC.

Within a year we’ll likely be calling it a Global Pan-Arab Pandemic.

Or just a Global Revolutionary Pandemic?

Rice prices may soon be reaching for the moon. Asia or the EU, I think the race is on.

Love him or hate him, Mubarak was just implementing what the global money launderers wanted him to. They had him doing exactly what is happening here, lowering corporate taxes and slashing what social services they thought could be. Dictator or not, he was following the global IMF (International Monetary Fund) version of economics. The world of banks has done this to Egypt.

The US has been inextricably tied to Israel since the Balfour Declaration in 1917. While this was a formal policy statement by Great Britain, it was endorsed by Woodrow Wilson and he participated in its drafting.

“In 2005, Prime Minister Ahmed NAZIF’s (Mubarak) government reduced personal and corporate tax rates, reduced energy subsidies, and privatized several enterprises.

The stock market boomed, and GDP grew about 5% per year in 2005-06, and topped 7% in 2007.”

This according to the CIA. Sound familiar?? Anyone? Buehler?
http://www.love-egypt.com/egypt-facts.html

Three OT’s: 1. The UAE societies could be what many Arabs want to emulate. 2. Next week, a major European Tour professional golfers event will be played in Dubai. 3. Mexico could very well be ‘next’. Bonus: 4. Had Sarah Palin not abdicated, Alaska would have rebelled before Tunisia.

I think this might be good news for Israel. Honestly. Before you pile on, consider. Israel has had a so-called ‘cold peace’ with Egypt. But a peace deal with a non-democratic government is pretty weak. A new Egyptian government, however Islamic, is better positioned to make a lasting peace. Better they meet as equal players, equally dedicated to peace, as well as economic prosperity for the region. It is possible (if, as it seems now, improbable); however, a real peace is not possible in cutting deals with corrupt dictators.

Just a thought.

Equal players and the US as the ‘honest broker’?
I wish it were so, but I just cannot see it.

I doubt that Obama’s directing Mubarak to leave the country would do much good considering Mubarak’s large ego and his desire to have something to say about governmental succession.

Besides, how do you know what Obama has told Mubarak – or what he hasn’t? Apparently a couple days ago the president sent former Ambassador to Cairo Frank Wisner to speak with Mubarak, with whom Wisner retained a close relationship as well as with other Egyptian officials after he left the Ambassador post. The two had what’s been described as an “extensive meeting” regarding the situation, and no one knows what message Wisner carried from Obama or how Mubarak answered that message. I don’t think it’s a good idea to assume anything has or has not been said or sent via diplomatic message to Mubarak by the White House at this point.

None of us should be so presumptious as to think we know enough to direct the president’s actions, or say what he should or shouldn’t do in these circumstances, even though we all presumably would prefer the same outcome.

Oh no, the US has not been a fair or honest broker. But the principals might come to terms. Or not. My point is, if the Arab governments are free and not satrapies, that they might reach an accord throughout the region. (Not all of the problems are with the Jewish state.) If an Arab or Muslim country is corrupt, dictatorial, and propped up by the United States, the prospects for a lasting peace are nil.

Not sure how many agree with me. I’m not hearing a huge chorus of “Amens.”

Oh, absolutely, this is the world the IMF has made. That’s another reason to think that the Jasmine Revolutions will spread worldwide, and not merely within the Arab world. The “economic hardship and pessimism” I referred to in my original comment is the work of the entities like the IMF and the World Bank. In other words, this can be laid directly at the door of the banksters.

FDL does not like talking about revolution. I personally have received moderator warnings on the topic, one of which stated flatly that “FDL does not allow discussion of Revolution” (see my comments on Rusty1776′s post “All is not silent in the Halls of the Dead”), and I am now starting to see comments disappear into the ether. But consideration of the possibility of revolution has become an essential part of the analysis of world politics – or rather, it always was, and that is becoming more evident by the day. The Federalist Papers frequently game out scenarios in which civil society breaks down, and revolutions and civil wars occur. In order to ensure that normal government does not break down, it is necessary to consider hypothetical cases in which it does. If FDL continues to refuse to recognize this situation, world events will render its debates increasingly irrelevant to reality. I think you recognize that, DDay. Please do all you can to persuade all the other FDL regulars to recognize it as well.

Egyptians are not Arabs. It would better to state the Muslim world rather than call them a name that is about people who live on the Arabian peninsula.

What is true is that the monied class is quite concerned, not only of the implications to the Muslim world, but what this might communicate to Americans whose congress, justice system, and media are controlled by them.