Siun has you covered on some of the additional protests around the Arab world. The one that fascinates me, outside of the uprising just beginning in Libya, is Bahrain, which is wealthy enough that you would have thought the king could have bought off the demonstrators. But the death of a mourner participating in the funeral procession of another killing by state police has provided a symbol that will endure. I would say that’s the next country to fall, though how it will turn out is anyone’s guess.
But let’s not forget what’s happening in Egypt. Despite some initial trepidation among activists that the army was “hijacking the revolution,” it appears they actually have little interest in running the country. It’s good that the activists continue to provide pressure, though their splintering into factions, inevitable in the absence of a unifying goal like the removal of Mubarak, worries me somewhat, because it could be exploited by the establishment.
So far, the Constitution has been suspended, and a panel formed to write a new one. This panel will be led by retired judge Tareq el-Bishri, who criticized the Mubarak government while it was in power. It includes Maher Samy Youssef, a Coptic Christian, and Sobhi Saleh, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which plans to form a political party to run candidates for Parliament. Opposition groups praised the selections. The constitutional panel will have 10 days to come up with amendments, suggesting that the turnover of power is happening rapidly.
More interesting to me at this point is how the deposed Mubarak regime used their power and the lengths to which they were prepared to go to keep it. The New York Times writes about their shutoff of the Internet:
Epitaphs for the Mubarak government all note that the mobilizing power of the Internet was one of the Egyptian opposition’s most potent weapons. But quickly lost in the swirl of revolution was the government’s ferocious counterattack, a dark achievement that many had thought impossible in the age of global connectedness. In a span of minutes just after midnight on Jan. 28, a technologically advanced, densely wired country with more than 20 million people online was essentially severed from the global Internet.
The blackout was lifted after just five days, and it did not save President Hosni Mubarak. But it has mesmerized the worldwide technical community and raised concerns that with unrest coursing through the Middle East, other autocratic governments — many of them already known to interfere with and filter specific Web sites and e-mails — may also possess what is essentially a kill switch for the Internet [...]
For all the Internet’s vaunted connectivity, the Egyptian government commanded powerful instruments of control: it owns the pipelines that carry information across the country and out into the world.
And Robert Fisk brings us this absolutely chilling bit of information.
But the critical moment came on the evening of 30 January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16 fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.
Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their headsets – over which they had received the fatal orders – to use their mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.
Obviously the shutdown of the Internet or the threat to have the military fire on its own people didn’t save Mubarak. But they provide the building blocks for how other nations might handle this crisis, out of the watchful eye of the world. This could already be happening in Iran, or Libya, or Bahrain. Mubarak may not have saved his own autocracy, but he may end up saving others.



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That last bit is the eye-opener. Tank commanders ordering their sons to disobey orders. To never fire on their own people. Wow.
Reminds me of how the Soviet Union fell. The Red Army dissolved when the targest was fellow Russians.
Excellent. I hope if that day ever comes to the US, where uniformed services are ordered to fire on peaceful protesters, that our men and women in uniform will have as much dignity and respect for the Constitution as the Egyptian and Soviet armed forces had for their own fellow human beings.
I reread the article again – it was fathers telling the tank commander sons to disobey. Still great inspiration for us to remember!
Nicholas Kristof is tweeting from Bahrain
@NickKristof – to follow – points out it’s odd a banking center like Bahrain has slow to little internet and is tweeting via Sat Phone
I follow this guy: @Nabeelrajab
never saw a TradMed confirmation, but there were reports Saudi Arabia was sending military assistance to Bahrain (shia majority ruled by sunni minority)
And here’s this:
Bahrain square becomes new center for Arab anger LINK.
Libya, too:
Anti-Government Protests Break Out in Libya LINK.
And this is a really interesting and novel approach:
Iranian Govt. Calls for Friday Rally to Show ‘Hatred’ for Opposition LINK.
I do too, hope that our soldiers have the sensibility not to fire on American protestors in the future, but now many of our soldiers in the field are so hopped up on speedballs and psychotropics, and those Drones are not even human and moving more toward AI and robotic reactions, that I fear our govt is trying to pre-empt any potential American rebellion.
The Clinton-Bush regime and the plutocrats who control Obama could care less how many would die.
Bahrain has all the ingredients to be really explosive. Esp that it is the home to the U.S. fifth fleet. So of VITAL importance to USG>
The 30-year-old state of emergency needs to be lifted. Until it is, the whole thing is reversible as far as I’m concerned.
Tank drivers tearing off their headsets and grabbing their cell phones; what an image!
Meanwhile, in Egypt, labor strikes contunue, and a big march/celebration has been called for Friday.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/2011216141815340645.html
Thanks for the update and concerns, David. And our best to the fledgling democracy.
Matters not what the poor Egyptians want. Do they think democracy will give them jobs and get them out of poverty? Ya right. If Egypt’s conditions aren’t attracted jobs already, then what will? Give them rights which would include a living wage, and maybe some benefits? That will drive every major company out of Egypt that is there now, as they move on to another cheap nation, with cheap labor and crappy working conditions. That’s how the game is played. That’s why the US, Canada, England, etc all have millions unemployed and economies of crap. Big industries want everyone’s money, but not to give back to those that create it. At the pace this is going right now, (Edited by Mod: Nice try but you can expect comments that promulgate violence as a solution to problems to be moderated or disappeared.). Less population=more jobs. Would be a catchy election slogan too…….”We’ll kill to create jobs”……I can see it now.
I can’t see the U.S. military disobeying orders to fire on Americans. Well, not enough of them at least.
The dirty underside to an all volunteer military is that those that make the choice to join are already predisposed to killing people. I’d also go so far as to say that there’s enough of that hardcore Christian fascism in the ranks for the PTB to have enough willing hands to do whatever they wanted. Hell, I’d be willing to bet a lot of them would slaughter DFH’s with a smile.
What is now important in Egypt is the nature of the parliamentary system that the military presents to the people in 10 days for ratification. And the procedures to guarantee free and fair elections. If it’s a strict parliamentary system, splintering could actually help turnout. As long as a strong coalition of reformers can be formed after the election.
The critical challenge of any new government will be to eliminate corruption from the system. In the short term, that could offset the costs of better wages and more jobs so that the investment decisions become a wash. Longer term, the issues that canadianbeaver @10 describes are going to be a problem.
When one guy over 30 years can squeeze out $70 billion in corruption, think how much savings could be wrung out of the national economy and put into infrastructure, schools, healthcare and other government-provided services that lower the cost of doing business.
I share your pessimism. And if the US military won’t, Blackwater employees (and the like) will.
It’s not so much that as that, unlike the Egyptian army, the American army is no longer a conscript army. While the majority come from poor American families, and might not fire on citizens, there are also mercenaries foreign and domestic who would. A key issue here is whether there is anything in our military like a Praetorian Guard. That would be the signal that the government has created a capacity to violently suppress the kind of sit-in that brought down the Egyptian government.
Blackwater, moving us forward. They’re outsourcing their mercenary work now, too.
Blue Texan’s regularly scheduled post is up: Haley Barbour Refuses to Denounce Plan to Honor KKK Founder on Mississippi License Plates
We have a whole variety of in-military ‘praetorian’-like sectors, from Navy SEALs to Task Force 373 (not to mention shadow govt or mercenary sources.) But as screwed up as these individual “warriors” may be, drugged or just psychotic, they are still human. What I find concerning and uniquely American is the use of robotic non-human, and increasingly sentient, machines which may be used for crowd-control and probably are already surveilling Americans.
How would the Egyptians have survived if Mubarek had drones at his disposal?
But, this is all getting away from the original post, and I hope the Egyptian people continue their success. One must remember, however, that the reasons why so many around the globe hate and fear our nation are our weapons and inhuman military postures. It is no great stretch to imagine that the enemy of the future to the plutocrats may very well be ‘the enemy within’. It has happened before in American history.
It all depends on which Americans they are ordered to fire upon, doesn’t it?
The Egyptian Revolution was very broad-based. The army was conscripted and large relative to the population. The likelihood of someone knowing a current soldier was very high. And the army had a recent history of restraint against firing on Egyptian people.
The US military is not as broad-based. It is volunteers, but the volunteers make up a demographic that is different from that of the overall population. And the US military has fired on civilians in the past–although their record is not as egregious recently as that of certain state National Guards. The role of Praetorian Guard goes to the Secret Service, which nowhere approaches either in size of firepower Mubarak’s presidential guard. But the US has million of folks working for private security agencies, who might not have the firepower but lack the discipline not to fire on innocent people. And police in the US have been the primary means of suppression of protest in the US. Moreover, US response to dissent tends to be what Herbert Marcuse called “repressive tolerance” — allowing loud peaceful dissent and even some violence that in the end has little effect, that eventually gives up.
I agree, my reference to the Praetorian Guard above was a little off….
and the Marcuse quote is very true, proven by too much observation …
Suez Canal unless Europe wants to sail their oil tankers around Africa and risk even more pirate attacks Egypt can say if a single company leaves Egypt we shut down the canal to that companies Nation’s shipping.
People always have options we should not limit ourselves by saying things are impossible right off the bat.
David, the two items which worry you are the ones which I think form the seeds for future political change. First, the splintering into many diverse ‘factions’ is the seedbed for the formation of political parties – I was putting them into my own mind this morning as we could have them in this country, the greens, the youth, the labor, the geeks, the farmers. It is a great sign that the army doesn’t really want the power, and what unites all of the above groups is simply they want a seat at the table, and they want to be well represented in the coming elections. So, there shouldn’t and can’t be one huge party of the revolution as that is what Russia got at the turn of its century into further repression.
So, the formation of different groups with different needs is a good thing, one we should have in our own repressive system instead of the two phony ‘parties’ who only represent the top two percent and only count money as the significant measure of power. The interim period can be used best to decide among the many options, each person individually, and have one’s personal energies and eloquence decide which of these many are the most attractive. It will be a different thing from group protest, but it will be furthering the beautiful democracy that Egypt deserves to have.
Meanwhile the army transition ought to be viewed as the army is telling the people it should be viewed, as transitional only. Push can come to shove if that turns out not to be the case, and plenty from outside will be trying to undermine that, but for now, it probably is hard enouch for the army to do just that, so I would still be optimistic.
As to your second point, the ‘chilling’ one, that all depended on the army’s refusal of Mubarak’s fiendish order, that too is such a positive thing. We saw in the Vietnam war era that it was the army really that dissolved that conflict, and I think we ought to be putting our attention towards our own military young people who are making such sacrifices for nothing but a furtherance at home of a regime which oppresses their mothers and fathers and grandmothers and grandfathers. There must be many serving around the world who have relatives whose wintertime survival will be denied by Barack Obama’s latest economy moves, and putting Social Security on the chopping block threatens everyone with older relatives who is currently serving in any guardianship position. Just who are you guarding, brave young soldiers?
We have so far concentrated on the moral imperative of not being ordered to kill civilians in other countries. Now I think it is more important, with that point being made, to turn the direction of our rhetoric to the measures the government is planning to put into place here at home. These will bring our young soldiers to question the thought of firing on their own people just as the young military in Tahir Square could not do it.
The Egyptians have shown us how important the military is to a successful governmental change. The protesters there didn’t just win them over with flowers and hugs – they were already won over by the repressions and injustices inflicted upon the people they were duty bound to protect.
The similarities are already so apparent – we saw Obama gladly assume Bush’s role of commander in chief – he absolutely loves it. And he has consistently turned a deaf ear to the people’s needs. He mouths platitudes and highsounding phrases to his own peril. There are many, many people who really believe in those ideals.
VietNam taught us that the appearance of being heard – via loud voice and marches and fixed elections – was enough to stop people violence and takeover and actual surrender of the state (by the rich and corporate that own it now) to the crowd
and VietNam taught us that police and national guard treat protesters like criminals so there is a dangerous road if one does more than be loud and march (and take over a few college and city employee offices) -
hard to see change in the US until massive progressive victories at the polls with a progressive president who is not progressive only when it helps to beat a female opponent.
Maybe in my lifetime – but folks – you have to speed things up a bit.
As a person who’s been hanging out here for a year or two, I’m still puzzled by what appears to be an FDL custom: people announcing new threads in old threads. When we first come on the website, we can see what the new threads are. What is the value of saying, “Hey, Gang, let’s go see what’s happening two doors down?” Presumably people can just go there if they’re interested.
An important point not usually highlighted in conventional (or even progressive) histories of that period.
OT, for sure, but I don’t have time to write this up. Newly declassified documents prove that “an FBI translator filed reports titled “Kamikaze Pilots” with the Bureau warning of an al-Qaeda plot to attack America in a suicide mission involving planes within the next months.”
(Buttressing Sibel Edmonds’ testimony, and putting paid to the lies told by the 9/11 Commission.)
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/02/fbi-translator-submitted-report.html
Sorry to intrude, but it’s most interesting, IMO.
curious as well
The Egyptians have set a high standard for the rest of us;
o the army refusing to kill their fellow citizens – i had tears in my eyes, reading how fathers advised their sons.
o peaceful – to the point of pulling back up barricades around the Presidential Palace, chanting. “Peaceful, peaceful.”
o sweeping up the debris afterwards!
Walk like an Egyptian, indeed! If only we could!
You are a kind human being, and those examples are ones to emulate. This is not going to end with the middle east. It will come to the world in the future, and like you I would hope for humanity. After I read this;
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/02/15/if-spending-cuts-kill-jobs-so-be-it-boehner/
It is ever more apparent that it needs to happen here. My take was this below, and sorry it is a long comment.
He shows his ugly face, speaks his ugly words in public as if he has anything of value to say that might contribute to the human race. What a cockroach. What virus inflicts us.
Those that got shall have
Those who have are given, as you know just by reading of the enormous profits of Goldman Sachs et al. Given in obscenity while they take from all else. We don’t have to go along with this..their system, not ours. To the point of throwing them out of office, our constitution speaks to this….ostensibly. You and I both know the constitution is off flying to a destination behind some gate we won’t have access to. It is nevertheless true we have great power, in the personal and the collective.
Ignorance has been elected by ignorance. Been put in charge willfully by criminal intent. We are being cooked slowly. So let’s turn the tables. We can start our own parallel communities and use them as hubs to connect with others. This is obviously not country specific, I just happen to live in this place in this life. And we can start now by not recognizing them in whatever way you can personally handle.
My thought is it should be egalitarian, with no leaders but wise council, and not gender specific. Lord knows we could use a good dose of the feminine. Monetary systems based on real goods instead of debt. These are just ideas but if one does not act in some fashion, you become complicit in your own hanging. This is real, happening and immediate. It won’t stop here. It will visit this country, every country. In forms both human and natural. You don’t have to be a joiner, I am not one of those. This is not a cause, you and I are not causes. We are life, meant to be filled with the joy and wonder we are surrounded by. To spiritually connect to it. Opening like a flower to receive the gift.
None of this is really original thought it just adds to weight on the scale.
I am not preaching or proselytizing. I am merely saying what I think. I admit to the possibility of being wrong, that is not a novel occurrence. I can’t wake you up. You have to wake yourself. The journey begins within.
My voice is puny speaking in a silence no one hears pointing out my very real insignificance. It can be really frightening just to know how really alone you are in the end of all the words.
We must refuse with all our being to succumb to, first our own, and others darkness.
This test is formidable and those aware strive to pass it, Fall down six times get up seven h/t ?. It is humbling what one doesn’t know. What wisdom not possessed.
The orange men of this world are ugly mirrors of our potential in one direction, a choice freely given. Avarice is beguiling it has a beautiful face that disguises its intent and we are easily fooled. The more you drink it in the more beautiful it becomes….
Someone said that the more inward one goes in seeking the more one radiates outward. It seems all the light we need. The contradiction of our rage is a paradox to these words. A part of the path I haven’t fathomed yet.
Also, I seriously doubt any change will come through action within. I have seen too much to buy that trope. When our power became visible way back, they shut it down and I give you its result, the present, in which those avenues have been closed off.
If we accept fenced free speech zones, spying, the lies of all wars, and a thousand other attacks on our right as human beings to live free in our person the battle is over.
You cannot wait for some Real Progressive to rescue you it aint going to happen. Honor, integrity and wisdom don’t gel with corporatocracy which is by definition a totalatarian dictatorship.
Well, we didn’t get an answer. I’ll have to ask in another thread.