It’s only a matter of time before the Ohio House passes the anti-union SB 5, which would eliminate the right to strike for public employees, put local officials in change of arbitration and limit collective bargaining on a variety of fronts. Democrats and union leaders have basically no hope that they can stop the House, which has a 59-40 Republican advantage, from passing the bill.

However, that will not be the last word for the bill. As I’ve mentioned previously, the bill can get to the ballot in a referendum, and it appears Democrats and labor are willing to do just that. Evan McMorris-Santoro explains the process:

Union leaders and Democrats have already begun shifting their focus to a referendum fight, which would require union supporters to gather hundreds of thousands of signatures in the days following an expected signing of SB 5 by Gov. John Kasich (R) [...]

Even if Kasich sings SB 5 next week as many expect he will, it will be at least 90 days until the law goes into effect. That period will give the opponents of the bill the chance to gather the 231,147 signatures (based on 6% of the vote total in the 2010 gubernatorial race, as state law requires) they’ll need to put a repeal referendum on the ballot. They can start the process with just 1,000 signatures. The entire process is outlined here.

Just when an SB 5 repeal could appear on the ballot also depends how quickly the Republicans can get the bill signed. If the 90 days expire before July 6, the repeal referendum would appear on a Nov. 2011 ballot, when local elections are contested across the state. If the 90 days expire after July 6, the referendum would appear on the Nov. 2012 ballot – a presidential election year.

I don’t think the Democrats can hold off the bill for over a month, so the most likely outcome is a November 2011 ballot measure. And this would be a test for the youth-labor-progressive alliance to reject Republican union-busting, in a measure that will probably draw a lot of action from both sides. Given the intensity around the issue, and how right-leaning police and firefighters have completely broken with Kasich and the Ohio GOP, Republicans have reason to worry.

“Anybody who thinks that the November elections of Republicans was a mandate misread the tea leaves,” said Tim Grendell, a Republican senator from the Cleveland suburbs who was one of six from his party to vote against Senate Bill 5. “It was a mandate against the overreach of Obama and [Rep. Nancy] Pelosi and [Sen. Harry] Reid in Washington. And now there’s going to be a backlash in Ohio. People in the public believe that this collective-bargaining bill was a Republican overreach, and now you’re going to see a sort of slap-back reaction.” [...]

“Taking on the fire and police, from a political perspective – it’s illogical,” Grendell said. “The ad that is going to be fatal to Republicans is going to be the fireman carrying the baby out of the burning building.”

Democrats are extremely confident that they can beat this at the ballot box, and energized about how that organizing victory will help in what is a key swing state in 2012. What’s more, they will fight in service to an idea, a principle of collective bargaining and workers’ rights, rather than an individual. This will have a much more lasting impact.

You have to wonder if Republicans are talking amongst themselves about how they awakened a sleeping giant.