The Libyan civil war has settled into a very traditional battle for territory. Rebels are advancing on the capitol from the east, while loyalists to Moammar Gadhafi try to take back rebel-held cities. At least as of yesterday, Gadhafi’s forces seem to be taking advantage. They waged a ground attack on Misurata, the third-largest city in the country, and they easily held Gadhafi’s hometown of Surt. Loyalists to the regime have exulted in Tripoli as reports come in of Gadhafi’s army beating back the rebels. One side has heavy artillery, rocket propelled grenades and air cover; the other side pretty much doesn’t.
So what is there to do? The US is very reluctant to engage in a military mission in Libya, which would add to the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the covert operations in Pakistan and Yemen and probably half a dozen more I’m not counting. The rebels are seeking air support to level the playing field against Gadhafi’s forces, or at least a no-fly zone so Gadhafi cannot bombard his own people. But the White House appears sensitive to the charge of being a Muslim conqueror:
The defense secretary, Robert M. Gates, and top commanders have warned of political fallout if America again attacks a Muslim nation, even to support a popular revolt. So military planners on the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and in its field commands are offering a broad range of approaches, depending on how events play out in Libya and how tough the United States and its allies want to be.
Even without firing a shot, a relatively passive operation using signal-jamming aircraft in international airspace could muddle Libyan government communications with military units. Administration officials said Sunday that preparations for such an operation were under way.
But there are also military units in the area, including a Marine task force that has air and sea capabilities. These units can also provide humanitarian assistance, including medical support and a refugee airlift. The strategy might just be to have this sitting off the shore of Tripoli to pressure the regime.
Former national security adviser Stephen Hadley suggested air-dropping weapons into Libya to aid the rebel forces, which sounds like a terrible idea given the nature of the conflict and the inability to know in whose hands those weapons would eventually wind up. And the article also suggests that small Special Operations teams could help train the rebels; as I understand it that’s what’s happening now, with respect to UK advisors.
It’s a genuinely risky situation, and I don’t think there’s necessarily an absolute right or wrong thing to do here. The imperative should be protecting the citizens of Libya, but I’m not convinced an invasion would get us to that goal. The President does not want an American face on the Arab uprising, and with so many countries in the region in upheaval, an intervention in one of them would lead to calls for more. So there’s a balance to be struck here, and I really don’t know what it is.



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Jamming Libyan aircraft signals would probably be better than trying to maintain a “no-fly zone”; as Tony Cordesman pointed out last week, a no-fly zone would require bombarding the area from the air to take out any anti-aircraft emplacements, and judging from the most recent experiences the Middle and Near East has had with US air attacks and their less-than-optimal accuracy, this is a problem.
Invasion? Stupid. Even putting military medical units on the ground in Libya would necessitate combat unit protection, and the last thing we need is American soldiers with guns running around over there.
Are we sure the rebels are somehow better than the regime they are replacing, to the point that providing direct aid is a smart move?
The Republicans are currently pushing him to do it — though of course should he do so I expect we’ll hear them start hollering about “open-ended conflicts” the way they did when Clinton intervened in the Balkans in the 1990s.
From what I’ve seen on Twitter, most activists in Libya would largely prefer we stayed out of it aside from humanitarian aid, but jamming the signals of Qaddafi’s planes would probably be an acceptable action, as it wouldn’t require bombing the bejeezus out of areas likely to hold civilian populations the way a conventional “no-fly zone” would.
Well then the GOP is flat-out wrong and Obama should ignore them.
I’m not exactly hip to the capabilities of our jamming-aircraft or how that would keep Quadaffi forces from strafing people with helicopter gunships, but I suppose as a passive intervention it’s probably not that big a deal as far as unknown consequences go. The very LAST thing Obama should do is put military boots on the ground; American soldiers milling about would send a very bad message.
“NO LIE ZONE OVER LIBYA – FKN Newz 030411” (Mar. 4, 2011)
Sign the petition to stop the spread of American Rupert Murdoch’s media snow-out of the US media from taking down almost 50% of the UK media upon which international citizens rely for like, actual, news.
Just what we need! Another war! Obama will cave to “prove” he’s “tough on
defenseoffense”.It’s also important to note that they have been on better terms with Europe for at least a decade now and have been able to upgrade their air to ground defenses with the latest technology. The warhawks in this country are still enamored with the memory of (what I understand was) nightly video of very successful attacks on military targets and infrastructure in Iraq during the first Persian Gulf War. What they fail to understand is that Iraq had just emerged from a brutal, punishing war with Iran at the time and it’s defenses consisted of technology that was state of the art…at the end of the Korean War. Enforcing a “no fly zone” will require land bases and an extensive bombing campaign followed by actual people on the ground. Libya is over two and a half times the size of Texas. That’s a whole lot of “no fly zone” to enforce. Libya isn’t post Persian Gulf War Iraq and in case it’s escaped the warhawks’ attention, we started off with land bases and boots on the ground during the post Persian Gulf War no fly zone.
“The Market Is Tanking, And Obama Is Hinting At Strikes On Libya” (Mar. 7, 2011)
Check this out: “Everything Is Now Correlated Exclusively To The Fed’s Balance Sheet” (by Tyler Durden, Mar. 4, 2011, 14:29 -0500)
The US and UK have completely “financia- ized” economies so it’s all and only about the money, folks.
I would hope he does. But I’m also not counting on the US press to point out how certain folks currently jonesing for hardcore military action (yes, Senator McCain, I’m looking at you) were not too long ago singing Moammar’s praises — even as recently as last year (this last one was a trifecta, as it had Lindsey Graham as well as “independent” Joe Lieberman also kissing up to the guy who ordered the Lockerbie bombing).
who gets the MIC gravy train….$$$$$
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffl1A2VF8_w
Hate to admit it, but if I was being fired on and bombed by my own government and we were all unarmed…I’d want someone to drop us some damn weapons. Just sayin’.
“Limited intervention”–like saying a “little bit pregnant. No such thing.
I agree. I think we got into VN by sending “advisors.”
Yup. We don’t need any more “fog of war.”
DING!
Obama Fiddles, Bibi Bombs, and, Libya Kicks SAS’ Buttocks
By: CTuttle Sunday March 6, 2011 6:00 pm
Think about what happens if we open the flood gates?
I wouldn’t say the U.S. is in any way “reluctant” to get involved. I’d say it’s simply they don’t yet have a clear plan.
But just because the U.S. can’t yet get involved directly doesn’t mean they’re not already actively involved – they’re just doing it through surrogates.
Hence the U.S. insistence at the UN on legal protections for pro-Gaddafi mercenaries who kill civilians.
UNLIMITED CHECKBOOK of the American working class
Senators Kerry and McCain have been agitating for Americans (not them, of course) to get over there to risk their lives helping the US secure all our oil that is underneath Libya’s sand.
Perhaps you might want help but they don’t.
news report:
“A spokesman for the new National Libyan Council, which formed in the eastern city of Benghazi after it was taken by anti-Gaddafi forces, said his group did not want any foreign intervention.”
The reasons the Libya rebels don’t want help is (1) Then the gov’t would claim the rebellion was led by outsiders, (2) The rebels want to do it themselves so they can claim full credit, (3) They know that outsiders would make claims on any agreement (see Woodrow Wilson in WWI), (4) airstrikes are notably ineffective and (5) They know that outsiders would f*** it up (see wedding parties, Afghanistan).
Kerry and McCain have a collective IQ of 25. Can’t stand either of them and both have been through war and should know better.
The US is already doing something. It has ships off the Libyan coast and more importantly AWACS aircraft flying along the coast around the clock. There are information gathering capabilities on both that can be used in multiple ways: to provide information for decision-makers in DC; to provide operational intelligence to folks running the refugee and relief operations, or to provide operational intelligence to Libyan National Council. Operational intelligence could include locations of aircraft and naval vessels, intercepted communications, and possibly locations of concentrations of ground troops.
There is no way of knowing what is being done, but those capabilities are already operating (per AJ reports). And the fact that their operation in the area are public knowledge certainly affect how the Gaddafi government has to operate in its military activities. Especially considering that loyalty to the Gaddafi regime no doubt weakens as you move down the chain of command. To the extent that there are hints that loyalty is being maintained in part by Gaddafi’s security forces and “committees” threatening families in Gaddafi-held territory who are related to troops still under Gadaffi’s control.
Just aired: ‘Save lives! Walk away from mortgage!’ (Mar. 7th, 2011)
Stephen Hadley should be in prison.
Whoever thought he’d raise his ugly head to comment on anything happening in the Middle East? Yuck.
No invasion, no drones, no political interference…I’d want weapons to defend my family and to fight the tyrants. There were people who did call in to US media to plead for help.
It is a terrible, terrible situation.
Yeah, Hadley is one of the most egregious, (and under recognized) members of the Bush war Cabal but as such, he’ll never pay for his crimes. We’re looking forward, not back™ after all.
I don’t think so. I think this is one case in which it is probably good that we have Obama in the White House rather than some Rethug yahoo or degenerate Liebercrat. He is a cautious man, and he won’t be swayed by arguments that don’t hold water. Why he can’t do the same on economic policy eludes me, but I have confidence that whatever decision he makes will be a considered one, and not a neo-con fantasy. That may not end up being the right decision, of course. There is so much uncertainty here that no one can know what’s right in advance.
David Dayen:
Here’s a thought experiment. Substitute the word “Iraq/Iraqi” for Libya here.
I know your memory doesn’t get wiped clean every month like most of the populace’s, so you should recall the “no-fly zones” in Iraq in 1991, and their genesis. The answer here should be obvious, particular when the usual suspects (LieberCain) are inciting us to action: keep the fuck out.
More importantly, Gates is there.
Jon Walker has a fresh cross-post ready: US Government Helping Arm Mexican Drug Cartels
I agree with your “keep the fuck out” conclusion but the situations in Iraq in 1991 and Libya in 2011 are not analogous. At all. Other than the phrase “no fly zone”, they have nothing in common.
Ready to enlist?
The past twenty years or so should have taught us a simple rule of thumb: don’t sanction any military action you wouldn’t participate in yourself. You’re just lending rhetorical cover to people willing to order soldiers around for their own purposes.
Wrong. The no-fly zones were justified on humanitarian grounds. Remember footage of Kurds fleeing their homelands (convenient how we had so much television coverage of that).
The self-important “but I’m not convinced” is very reminiscent of the palaver you heard from the pseudo-liberals wringing their hands prior to the invasion of Iraq, with their qualms about doing something they sort of knew was bad but not wanting to seem like losers or wimps, or simply too indifferent to Arabs to think too rigorously through the consequences of bombing them. The specious humanitarian concerns were nice cover for a particular sancimonious type.
Come on. This is a no-brainer. Any military venture backed by these people is to be opposed.
Just don’t send Addington or Yoo!
America’s secret plan to arm Libya’s rebels; Obama asks Saudis to airlift weapons into Benghazi; Robert Fisk; The Independent; 3/7/11
It’s important that the US have a consistent security doctrine. Surely there ought to be some doctrinal basis for US foreign policy, rather than committing US military power on a strictly case-by-case basis.
Helping Libyan rebels would gibe with the US National Security Strategy:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf
But the National Defense Strategy is more restrictive:
http://www.defense.gov/news/2008%20national%20defense%20strategy.pdf
Gadhafi was until very recently as close an ally to the US as the potentates of Middle East US allies are — Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, etc. If the US doctrine is to help Libya rebels, shouldn’t the same doctrine apply elsewhere? One could make the case that a policy of helping Libya rebels with military aid ought to be extended to these other countries. While the rebellions in these countries are not as kinetic as in Libya, the potential is there.
Would that be promoting US security or undermining it? To ask the question is to answer it.
It’s easy to say in a fancy speech that the US ought “to shape a world in which more individuals and nations could determine their own destiny” but difficult to implement it through military means. That’s the box the US finds itself in because of its years of supporting anti-democratic rulers, thinking that this would promote US security.
So what’s the doctrine to be?
I was speaking tactically, not strategically. Sorry I wasn’t clear.
This is the clear and obvious answer – much as we may want to be helpful, we have such a horrible track record in these matters, that ‘first do no harm’ has to be the mantra. There are many nonviolent ways to assist the overthrow of a tyrant which ought to be explored – chief among them that this country should get out of the business yesterday of supplying weapons to everyone who asks. We should turn our attention to the warmongers operating within this country and ask ourselves whether we want any longer to be the chief warmonger of the world.
We could have prevented so much carnage by simply refusing to make the stuff that causes all this blood. Think about it.
Military and humanitarian aid operations don’t mix well. In one hand they hold a gun and in the other — humanitarian aid. This puts the lives of the NGO workers at risk because the people in the host country do not know whom they can trust. The US military should stay out of humanitarian operations as much as possible.
The problem is that they like it for the PR value.
Well, look at it this way, who gets hurt by $5 a gallon gas?
The people running our wars and diplomacy must be shitting bricks right now. They have to appear to be on the side of democracy but have been supporting the dictators rather openly for a long time. Now, with Anonymous, Wikileaks and the “rebels” releasing docs much of the nastiness will come to light. How do you spin an overwhelming amount of truth? You can’t. I wonder if Obama will simply continue go the route of supporting unfettered capitalism and kill many more innocents? He and the PTB certainly haven’t left themselves much wiggle room.
How come nobody’s talking about Libya’s oil? Wasn’t it reported recently that the rebels have gained control of 80% of Libya’s production capacity? How do Conoco-Phillips, Shell, Marathon, Hess and Occidental feel about that? Just as in the lead up to Iraq, is this saber-rattling not really all about stable access to and control over Libya’s petroleum resources?
Time for Americans to wake up to the fact that we should be paying $5 a gallon. Perfect way to force conservation. Perhaps, people will start thinking about mass transit. I know it is a long shot but we need to get out of our cars. It would promote less isolation, too.
The United States should stay out COMPLETELY. The rebels don’t want our help and any intervention on our part with our history would taint the revolution.
The US government can’t get past wanting to control the world.
which is why I think any military assistance to the Libyan rebels is extremely unlikely. From the US foreign policy elites perspective Khaddafi is a known commodity who will keep the oil flowing and refineries operating once he’s back in full control, and that’s exactly what TPTB want. While this disturbance continues though, it’s an excellent opportunity for Goldman’s trading desk to apply a little shock doctrine to the price of gasoline… must be nice to be a hedge fund manager these days.
If we really wanted to intervene nothing (especially Mid-east public opinion) would stop us from doing so. The only question is has the decision already been made to sit out or is the debate still continuing?
Sorry, but it would not be acceptable to the rebels who don’t want to be tainted as allies of the US government.
If the US wants to have good relations with the Arab world, then it must stop intervening and build a level of trust from scratch.
It is clear that there is not a consistent national security doctrine, and it is also clear why. The US national security institutions still have not come to terms with the end of the Cold War. And if the Middle East revolutions play out as they are trending, this statement will no longer be (if it ever was) true:
So we have a huge national security apparatus, having had its enemy taken away once again, with no reason to be as large as it is. And intellectually dishonest in its analysis of potential threats to the United States and in how to shift global security responsibilities from the US as the self-proclaimed indispensable country.
Should the US act the same way in response to the events in different countries in the Middle East? I don’t think so. It is the failure of the US to have really strong ties with Libya (and most likely Saudi Arabia) that will make unwinding those two more difficult than was Egypt. Not to mention the case of Iran, in which we have zero effective leverage. The ties that we do not have are the peer-to-peer relationships with a variety of lower ranking members of the military, security services, and foreign service of those countries and the direct US aid that could act as leverage on those peer-to-peer relationships when the top guy is deaf to the clearly demonstrated will of the people.
We can encourage to various degrees the monarchies (excluding Saudi Arabia) to move as quickly as possible to constitutional monarchies and to not suppress peaceful dissent violently. We seem to be doing that behind the scenes.
The allied republics like Egypt and Libya are problematic in that we can get assurances of leaders that they are not suppressing dissent. And sure enough, the security services and military are not suppressing dissent in the streets visibly, but they are hiring thugs to turn things violent and provide the “us or chaos” argument a boost. In Yemen, the government no doubt is trotting out the presence of al Quaeda in the Arabian peninsula as an excuse for not stepping down.
The case of Saudi Arabia is very strange and will be difficult to unwind. We need Saudi oil. The Saudis need US cash, but not too much at once. In addition, they want sophisticated weapons. And we want to boost our exports by exporting weapons. But we want their silence or good negotiating offices in regard to Israel and Palestine. And since we pay Egypt for that, we pay them for that as well and they use our money to buy our weapons and help the statistics of our balance of trade, which is hurt by our import of oil. In this complex relationship, who has leverage over whom?
The blunt fact of the current situation in the world is that the US is not going to “shape a world” one way or the other. That is wishing for a vanished past. And worlds can be shaped through means other than military, although the structure of the global security system strongly affects the way the world operates.
Something else to consider is that this “passive” intervention by a US Navy ship would invite an attack by Gadhafi’s air force and that would be the Gulf of Tonkin moment the interventionists in our corrupt government want.
Our warped interventionists are not pro-democracy. They are pro US-control and they see our influence with Arab autocrats being taken away. They desperately want to influence events for their own (and Israel’s) purposes. They want to pick the new leader of Libya and subvert the democratic movement.
the middle and working class, that’s who. Not that I necessarily disagree with the argument that the US doesn’t pay enough for refined gasoline. I very much do understand the argument that higher prices will lead to increased conservation and alternative fuel research and market introduction, which are necessary things for the future as we head into peak oil.
The problem has always been corporate capture of the government by the oil and gas industries – while they call the shots we can’t get the proper funding necessary from government to develop these future industries and markets, which means they get richer while everyone else gets poorer.
It’s the $5 diesel that hits the fan. Two years ago every company I knew and do business with, including the largest multinationals in my industry, were in a stark panic. The entire business financial infrastructure was brought to it’s knees. I have a friend with a medium sized gas and diesel distribution business, and a full load of gasoline and diesel was running him $40,000, with less than ten days to pay. Major supermarkets were holding deliveries until a store had a full load. And so on, with no exceptions.
The fan was hit so hard that it pretty much stopped turning.
Meanwhile, the inflation number has all “oil-related” costs excluded. The problem is obvious–everything in our society runs on diesel–but the media almost completely ignores the issue.
It’s not clear that a limited no-fly zone requires extensive bombing. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, JFK flatly refused the military permission to bomb antiaircraft installations, even tho’ both low and high level reconnaissance flights were continuing from US bases. Pilot Rudolph Anderson lost his life as a consequence, but Kennedy was convinced a bombing campaign was too risky a step to take early in a crisis, and that it might escalate into full war rapidly. He was probably correct.
Likewise, the risks of heavy military action such as bombing in Libya may require finding another way to do things. The military will *always* want a heavy bombing raid as part of any action, partly because they realize it leads to deeper intervention like invasion. Robert Kennedy repeatedly stressed that in his book “13 Days”, even as he related how JFK *overruled them* …
Any thoughts on avoiding direct military interventions but setting up supply convoys into the rebel controlled areas? I’m sure there are Islamic and other charities that would be willing to front money for medical supplies, food, and other necessities that would not be military supplies. This would allow the forces that are trying to control the country now a semblance of authority and ability to care for the citizens, while possibly saving a few lives in the process.
Although part of me still wouldn’t mind a BLU-109 falling on Quaddafi’s location. I’m not sure that would help solve the situation thought, and might backfire, but he’s really the source of all this death.
When both John Kerry and John Yoo are calling for intervention, this thing is going to bad places. Kerry, of course, voted to invade Iraq, Yoo, well, you know the rest.
This just in:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/03/gates-petraeus-joke-about-launching-an-attack-on-libya-.html
If they or any other nation has oil or any other natural resource available for us to steal, why shucks, we’ll be there with any old reason at all in just two shakes of a lamb’s tail-uh, maybe only one shake.
Those three infamous words, US mulls limited intervention, says all we need to know.
Especially when there’s oil in the vacinity. It’s a no brainer.
We’re already there. Surely arming both sides. More cash for the MIC.
Who knows who the US is really supporting behind the scenes.
I don’t think they give a hoot in hell as long as either side cooperates with our interests.
Watching CNN a few hours ago. Saw video of Libyan men heading into some sort of armed dispute as a very American voice shouted in the background to “go, go, go!”
My guess is the mulling’s been long over.
HA.
Four infamous words.
Like, DUH!
BINGO!
This is standard operating procedure: war by proxies and surrogates – the iron fist beneath the velvet glove. That’s how we did it with the Soviets in Afghanistan. The only problem is there is always blow back – unintended consequences. However much I would like to see the rebels win, our involvement will be just too costly for everyone concerned. Once we start racking up “collateral damage,” we’ll be the bad guys, not Qaddafi, even if we get the Saudis to be our bagman.