Tweet
PPP/Daily Kos has released polling for each of the “Republican 8″ State Senate districts in Wisconsin up for recall. While State Senate polling is almost unheard of due to the low name recognition, in this case the response rate was quite high, and the topic has blanketed the news in Wisconsin for the past month, so I think it’s at least credible as a good baseline. Based on this polling, Democrats lead in enough districts – three – to flip the State Senate in Wisconsin.
The poll tested each of the Republican 8 Senators – Dan Kapanke, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, Rob Cowles, Sheila Harsdorf, Alberta Darling, Mary Lazich and Glenn Grothman, against a generic Democrat. This is probably the best way to gauge this right now, as they are recall elections, and the actions of the Republicans in stripping public employee collective bargaining rights will be the main, if not the only, issue of the election. Here are those topline numbers.
Democrat 55
Dan Kapanke 41
Democrat 49
Randy Hopper 44
Democrat 49
Luther Olsen 47
Rob Cowles 45
Democrat 43
Sheila Harsdorf 48
Democrat 44
Alberta Darling 52
Democrat 44
Mary Lazich 56
Democrat 34
Glenn Grothman 60
Democrat 32
Grothman and Lazich were never considered winnable districts. I’m a bit surprised at the baseline spread on Alberta Darling’s race. Local progressives think that district is very winnable, in part because there’s a credible Democratic candidate, former Assemblyman Sheldon Wasserman, willing to run. In addition, Darling is the co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee, which reported out the rights-stripping bill. And, Darling will be in attendance at that big fundraiser in Washington this week for the state GOP. So I have reason to believe that one could be closer, especially when you plug in the actual candidates.
As for Kapanke, Hopper and Olsen, obviously they’re in a fair bit of trouble. Kapanke doesn’t even look close, and Hopper has his own set of problems that will cut against his ability to claw back. Olsen’s district includes the fairly blue-collar town of Green Bay. This could also be one of those tipping point elections, where all the close races move in favor of the party with more energy and enthusiasm. I think it’s clearly the case that the energy is on the Democratic side. Given all that, I’d say 6 of these 8 seats are in play.
Recall elections are historically pretty difficult – only a handful of legislators have ever been recalled in American history. But this is a unique situation. And Democrats appear well-positioned to make Scott Walker and his allies pay for stripping public workers of their rights.
13 Comments
Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
There are no recall elections currently scheduled, and possibly never will be. The poll asks: Who would you vote for if an election were ever held, a generic Democrat or the incumbent?
There are 2 elections, presumably winnable for Democrats, scheduled for April 5.
This is also a high-stakes test for Kos/PPP. If this polling turns out to be way off they’re not going to have a lot of credibility going into 2012.
Considering that one of the currently non-recallable Republicans, Dale Schultz, actually votes against Walker every now and then, taking three seats will put a cramp in Walker’s style — as will beating Walker’s best buddy (and former GOP state assembly chair) David Prosser in the upcoming Supreme Court election.
Actually, PPP’s OK; it was R2K that was ripping them off.
What’s really interesting is going to be the period covered by the PPP poll. The whole thing won’t be publicly released until tomorrow, so we won’t know until then, but my guess is that the majority of the polling, if not all of it, was done before the revelations about Randy’s a) not living in his own district, and b) living with a lobbyist to whom he is not married. We can probably shave another few points off of Hopper’s numbers thus.
No wonder why the Senate Republicans are throwing little hissy fits like this one, in essence pretending that the Senate Democrats haven’t returned. Fitzgerald knows his remaining time as Senate Majority Leader is best measured in weeks, and he’s not at all happy about it.
As a matter of fact, the elections on April 5 represent a real opportunity for Democrats to gather signatures for recall. Where else will you find so many politically motivated registered voters in 1 place, a polling place, in a 12 or so hour period?
Most places won’t allow political activity within 100 ft of polling place.
I bet down the block from polls would be awesome though.
As a veteran of five petition drives who has collected thousands of signatures, I can tell you that in a situation like this, a 101 feet from a polling place is going to be a bonanza. Have a sturdy table, multiple copies of the petition to sign so people don’t have to wait in line, extra copies for those who wish to circulate them in their areas, and plenty of pens! (Also comfortable shoes and a chair.)
How can you tell that the recalls will tip the Senate back to the Democrats? The Republicans aren’t even pretending to be nice anymore, or to care about the will of the people — they’re acting like thugs who know their days in power are numbered, so they have to grab what they can, while they can.
When might these elections take place? Is there a length of time that voters must wait to recall states senators, as there is for Walker?
Busting unions is more controversial than being out of state for 3 weeks which merely delayed a vote. I think several dems won’t even get the signatures against them.
Senator Olson does NOT include Green Bay at all. Senator Cowles includes chunks of the Green Bay metro area, but it tends to be the higher-income parts.
When a group officially registers with the gov accountability board and files a request for a recall against a particular candidate, they have sixty days from the filing date to collect the requisite number of signatures from residents of the district of the person being recalled. If adequate signatures are collected in a particular district the signatures are then verified within 30 days by the government accountability office and then the elections must be held promptly. We are looking roughly at mid-summer.
Heard from several acquaintances who know Sen Cowles and they were ROTFL at the prospect of anything deterring him from stopping at a tavern after “work.”