I listened to President Obama’s entire statement on the situation in Libya, and I still don’t know what he has planned. I know that he extended the demands on Gadhafi. This is no longer about just protecting the people of Benghazi, “a city of 700,000 people.” Obama explicitly said that all attacks must stop – there’s some question of whether Gadhafi is honoring the cease-fire – as per the UN resolution. But he also said that Gadhafi’s forces must pull back from other cities, that supply lines must be established to them, and that humanitarian supplies must be allowed in. And he intimated that the credibility of the international community is on the line. “The words of the international community would be rendered hollow” if they did not act to stop Gadhafi.
So we know that there will be military action to enforce the resolution. But while what Obama listed as demands appears to go mostly within the lines of the text of Resolution 1973 – humanitarian supplies are referenced, as well as attacks against civilians beyond Benghazi – I still don’t know what happens if all of that is fulfilled. Because you’d still have a situation where Gadhafi is in power in at least Tripoli, and a rebel force in power in other major cities. There’s talk in the resolution of a solution “which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people,” but since they tagged Gadhafi for crimes against humanity, I can’t see how any solution would include him. So is this regime change? That’s not mentioned in the document. Explicitly, the resolution excludes “a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory,” and that would seem to exclude Special Forces operating in concert with Libyan revels.
The President was clear that ground troops would not be committed, that the British, French and Arab League would take a leadership role and that they would help bear the responsibility and the cost. Indeed, I would expect British and French planes to be the first flying over Libya. Moreover, the President said that “Change in the region will not be imposed by the US or any foreign power, but driven by the people of the Arab world… Our goal is focused, our cause is just and our coalition is strong.”
I cannot discern the goal, however. It certainly sounds like regime change when it comes out of the mouth of the French government:
Earlier François Baroin, a French government spokesman, told RTL radio that action would come “rapidly,” perhaps within hours, after the United Nations resolution authorized “all necessary measures” to protect civilians.
But he insisted the military action was “not an occupation of Libyan territory.” Rather, he said, it was intended to protect the Libyan people and “allow them to go all the way in their drive, which means bringing down the Qaddafi regime.”
I think it’s important to understand the stakes here. Because the President is committing the nation – and this is mandatory under the UN Charter – to what certainly looks like a multilateral regime change mission in Libya.
UPDATE: US officials have clarified their position somewhat:
The purpose of the no-fly zone, the administration official said, is to prevent Gadhafi from attacking his own people.
“It’s not designed to have him go. That’s not the purpose,” the official said. “The purpose of the military action is to prevent massive humanitarian loss of life, to stop the violence. If the violence stops, then you shouldn’t leap to say then the military action will continue until he leaves.”
This appears to put the US at odds with the French, which adds a whole new set of issues. And where does this leave things in Libya? In a perpetual state of detente? We need peace talks immediately.




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We definitely need peace talks, but it would help if Gaddafi actually honored his own alleged cease-fire. However, this isn’t particularly likely, given his past history.
“So is this regime change?” ; yes though not explicitly stated. And ALL the envoys that were invited by Gaddafi to ‘see the truth’ have been prevented from going where they might discern the ‘truth’.
This will be going on for awhile because Gaddafi will NOT step down/aside unless his quattafa tribe throws him and his family ‘under the bus’ which is unlikely.
David, what actions does one take when a rabid dog is threatening the citizenry? For that is what Gaddafi is.
What should have been the solution -a true R2P force by the U.N which would have acted sooner- still doesn’t exist.
But long ago it occurred to me that human civilization was about at the stage of development as a four year child.
Guest on democracynow (I think that’s where I heard it) this morning asserted that O had no idea what to do in Libya & was scared to death of it.
Sounds like the indecisive process that Woodward describes in his book on O’s Afghan war.
But, at the end of the day, O always chooses the most militaristic of the alternatives.
How many more people will we kill?
Where are the stinking deficit hawks? Who’s paying for the killing?
If there isn’t regime change and Gaddafi stays, there will need to be troops from some country to see that he doesn’t do the same thing again. Obama is, as usual, “unclear.”
This is the exact same shit Bush said about Iraq, isn’t it? Escalating, nebolous, demands. Crocodile tears for ‘the people’. Hints that the ‘international community’ was not effective, hence not relevent.
Looks the same to me. Fuck you, Obama.
More US hair-splitting and fence sitting. They want Gaddafi to go if they can do it at some predetermined “price” they are willing to pay. But they don’t want to be on record as advocating regime change, or else the precedent will come back to haunt them in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. The principal goal, as with spice in the Dune saga, is that the oil must flow.
If there really is a “cease fire” and end to violence, it seems to me Libya will follow the path of its neighbors Tunisia and Egypt–which is exactly why Gaddafi resorted to violence in the first place.
That said, seems unlikely that violence will stop anytime soon. Al Jazeera and ppl on twitter have been reporting the Gaddafi has been bombing Misurata nonstop, and has now positioned forces 50km outside of Benghazi. It doesn’t seem like Gaddafi is going to go quietly.
“Our goal is focused, our cause is just and our coalition is strong.”
He sounds just like Bush.
From the looking forward not backward department — It’s comforting to know that the experienced hands of Cheney & Rumsfeld are still driving the country into the ditch and over a cliff, simultaneously.
It’s a good thing that elections have consequences, for those who’ve bought and paid for them.
I can. Re-election.
The economy can’t stand the after-effects of the Japan crisis (one auto plant has already shut down for lack of parts, this will cascade rapidly) and an oil crunch at the same time. Japan can’t be fixed quickly. So he needs to get the oil flowing. In each case, he is supporting the side that will get the oil flowing the fastest. Any pretense of “supporting democracy” is no more than pretense.
We’re in WAG-land now. The militaries of the countries involved are not going to be telegraphing strategy to the Gaddafi regime. Nor will those involved in what remains of the diplomatic effort telegraph their strategy through the press.
That said. Here’s my wild-ass guess of what is likely to transpire (it’s not really rocket science at a general level; the details are going to be where it succeeds or fails). There will be a period of watching and waiting to see whether the regime implodes as ben Ali’s and Mubarak’s regime did. During this period, the opposition may test the ceasefire in Tripoli and other areas not currently under attack with peaceful protest–if they have enough people so determined that they have lost their fear of Gaddafi’s security apparatus. Large numbers will be better than small numbers. The Gaddafi security apparatus either will attack or stand down, depending of whether he decides to bide his time. Then the world will begin to get a measure of how widespread the opposition to Gaddafi is. Then if Gaddafi cracks down because it is demonstrating that he in fact has lost legitimacy, the sources of that attack will themselves be subject to attack by the international force. Until the regime finally cracks. That is most likely Plan A.
Plan B assumes that Gaddafi will move to finish off Misurata, Tobruk and Benghazi as soon as possible, trying to (1) catch the international forces flatfooted before they have been well-positioned and operating and (2) giving the world a fait accompli. The international response will depend on whether they have been caught flatfooted. If they have not been caught flatfooted, Gaddafi’s stretched out military supply chain will be attacked, must likely in the long desert stretches between towns. If they have, the heads of state will have a tough decision: go with things not completely ready or return to some diplomatic strategy. This Hobson’s choice is likely Gaddafi’s objective if not now, at some point down the line. Betting that if the international forces blink, he survives and if they do not he has a chance of getting broader Arab support against Western imperialism.
Congressional partisan politics unfortunately drives Obama to try to be tougher than Republicans. While all of us powerless bystanders hope that he turns out to be smarter than Republicans. What is interesting is that this decision has split Democrats, split progressives, and split Republicans. And allowed John McCain another 15 minutes of fame.
Maybe the Veep will get his wish for partition that he proposed for Iraq back in the day, but in Libya instead.
There are no deficit hawks — only deficit peacocks. They strut and preen and caw, only to vote for ever more cronyistic spending and ever more blatant tax breaks for donors.
It’s the one thing, the only thing, that guides all his actions
Thanks for the laugh!
Well said & terribly accurate.
Yup. A whole lot of that boilerplate sounded familiar…and not in a good way.
Did Obama manage to work “They hate us for our freedom” into his speech?
I bet Obama misses McChrystal.
I partly agree and partly disagree. The US resisted this as long as they could, despite the rebels pleading for it.
That said, I happen to have read the “leaked” draft of the UN resolution that CBS obtained on weds. This was before the US had signed on and it authorized “all necessary measures” to “enforce air ban.” After the US signed on to it, the resolution now reads “all necessary measures” to “protect civilians.” So yes, when the US signed on, it broadened the authorization.
Hopey is going out of his way to show he’s Lieberman’s bitch.
A hypocritical gasbag lighter than air.
Being Wall Street’s lapdog is not enough, it seems.
He’ll be traded in, no question. They’ll want a real butler this time.
If this no-fly (misnomer, as the resolutions as an ‘any means necessary’ clause in it) was for the humanitarian reasons the UN and this Administration claims it was, why aren’t they doing the same thing in the Ivory Coast?
I’m sorry, how much oil does the Ivory Coast have?
Guess State has left the reservation of WH doublespeak. “We will continue to work with our partners in the international community to press Gaddafi to leave and to support the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people.” (Clinton)
From the OT “update”. The “administration official” who said “humanitarian loss of life” must be the doublespeak pusher. What the heck does “humanitarian loss of life” mean?
Richard engle opined tonight that this could turn into a very long mission with Quadaffi in the west and the rebels in the east. He also suggested that, like it or not, Qadaffi will argue he has the right to defend his government just like anyone else against those wanting to take it down. He also thought that Quadaffi would volunteer a civilian corridor so that he would then be free to go after the rebels.
Fuck, sounds like another war to me.
The answer to the “why aren’t they doing the same thing in..” is that either (1) they can’t get the votes of the Security Council members or (2) one of the five permanent members objects enough to veto it. One would have to see how much authority the UN Security Council gave to the mission in the Ivory Coast to understand why they are reacting with restraint in the face of a mortar attack. As I understand it, the UN mission is to separate the conflicting forces. It is the African Union that has recognized Mr. Outtara’s legitimacy as being the lawfully elected president.
And Gbagbo’s response is nonsense, in the sense that it is illogical.
There’s nothing in the UN Resolution about regime change, only: “Reaffirms its intention to keep the actions of the Libyan authorities under continuous review. . .”
The U.S. has a different agenda.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20044677-503544.html
One war at a time. We can go there or Yemen or shit there has to be a bunch of places. But you know we gotta get the UN and England and France to sign on too. And you know the congress hasn’t even approved of this one yet. What happens if they shoot down an American plane without congress on board?
Here is an article from a couple of weeks ago headed by a nice map of oil fields and pipelines.
You simply focus on protecting the civilians who are trying to get the oil flowing again, including (I suppose) air to ground strikes against any armor or concentrations of Ghaddafi troops nearby. Feed arms and ammo from Egypt (already happening) to the rebels, asking them to protect those areas. Seems like a workable plan, even if Ghaddafi hangs on for years, the oil can flow, and that’s all they care about.
You asked.
When does the no fly zone covering UN Resolution 242 begin?
http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/240/94/IMG/NR024094.pdf?OpenElement
I thouhgt I heard that the only thing the rebels wanted was to take Quadaffis planes out of the air and they would do the rest. Well, the planes are out. Mission accomplished?
“The principal goal, as with spice in the Dune saga, is that the oil must flow.” ;EXCELLENT analogy.
But it IS the main source for chocolate !!
No one really knows how strong Gaddafi is or how much his support (including those crowds in Tripoli) is supported by terror. Or how tight the current members of the regime are. Like I said, this is WAG-land.
And Richard Engle’s WAG is about as good as anyone else’s. Certainly Gaddafi has tried to frame the conflict as being break-away Cyernaica against loyal Tripolitania, the historical divisions of the country. And the rebels have tried to frame it as a popular uprising like those in Tunisia and Egypt.
Like so much that we ordinary citizens and worker bees have to contend with, we will just have to wait and see what happens.
well that and guns. They are now getting both, but give them more than a day. ;)
“Mission accomplished?”
Not in 24 hours, did you expect that it would be?
It’s rhetorical; of course you didn’t. You’re just upset that Ghadafy blinked so quickly.
Just as with Egypt, the military is the key. A fair number of them jumped when they had no idea that his air force would be neutered. Think they’ll hang with him now?
Just askin…
TarheelDem: There you go talking sense again. You are spoiling all the fun.
Yep. Obama’s love fest with Wall Street isn’t playing well with voters, and the two wars he’s waging aren’t helping, so what to do? Quadaffi’s scalp on the White House wall would sure look good. Not to mention all his oil…
The oil was flowing very nicely, thank you, under Ghadafy.
If you think that it will flow better under a new and more democratic government, can you explain why you feel that way?
Presenting this situation as:
Ghadafy will cut off the oil, or HAS cut off the oil, is ridiculous. He’s been about as reliable as Saudi Arabia, about keeping the tap open. It’s the other way around; Obama and his corporate buds are concerned that a new and more democratic government might not be as cozy with western petro-dogs as Ghadafy has been. That’s why he’s been dragging his feet on using american throw-weight to get rid of an despot who is exponentially worse than Mubarak.
The rebels captured both of those refineries between Benghazi and Tripoli and still hold the one by the Egyptian border. The Gaddafi forces retook them. I’m not sure how shipment of arms to the rebels is in accord with the arms embargo in the UN resolution. But that is likely enforced at point of sale not at the Egyptian border or the Libyan coast (unless the Egyptian tightened their border). Given the call for a ceasefire in the resolution, I don’t think that the rebels can forcibly take back the refineries and terminals without putting the international forces in a legal bind (that Ban ki-Moon, who has oversight of the implementation of Resolution 1973 would have to bring back to the Security Council to resolve).
“Use force” is euphemism for random ,indiscriminate murder, though use force is a bloodless term your head..
Bogus barry you’re in over your head.
How many were killed so far?
How many collaterals will Bogus barry notch on his belt.
I refuse to show any respect for rabid war criminals in our White House past or present.
Obama says the NFZ is conditional and goes beyond the Resolution with withdrawal demands.
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Obama-Warns-Gadhafi-Of-Possible-Military-Action-118264964.html
Per Al-Arabiya, Ghaddafi forces are advancing on Benghazi right now.
Additionally, the Egyptian Army closed off the roads to Tahrir and beat the protesters with batons.
Plutonicus, one more time; we have access to Libya’s oil, now, and have had access, practically uninterruped access, for a long time.
At the most fractious time of the relationship, after Reagan had killed his small daugher and shot down two Libyan planes, he never ordered western oil interests out of Libya. Our own state department did that.
The people trying to frame this as being about nothing but oil are either ignorant or willfully dishonest. I think that Obama and the western powers, while giving lip-service to “democracy” in Islamic countries, are actually quite afraid of it. Losing a corporate-friendly despot in exchange for a government more inclined to hold the elections that might mean they become part of a growing movement who’ve had enough of our highly selective ranting about “freedom” for Muslims, is frightening to the Fortune 500 and their global ilk.
The UN (and France) are already fighting in Côte D’Ivoire. They authorized an additional (because they already have troops there) 2000 troops there about a week ago. They also authorized new rules of engagement. They are discussing further actions.
Part of the problem is they botched the terms of the ultimatum for Gbagbo to step down and gave the decision making authority for the ultimatum to a group of African leaders who haven’t done anything. Now they are trying to walk back that authority to be able to get more ability to strongarm Gbagbo, to prevent a genocide that will also destabilize Liberia.
“I refuse to show any respect for rabid war criminals in the White House past or present.”
Especially when he’s (finally) doing something to help get rid of a monster like Ghadafy.
tjbs, your “honor” brings tears to my eyes.
giving the rebels weapons is in violation of the arms embargo. But according to the WSJ, Egypt started doing it yesterday anyway. Only for small arms like rifles though. The rebels could use more anti-tank weapons.
Assuming Gaddafi abides by the cease-fire (which he hasn’t thus far), then the revolution will turn back into peaceful protests, I think. He will be ousted the same was Ben Ali and Mubarak were.
That’s probably why he is keeping up the violence, which I guess would legally justify the rebels in defending themselves, right?
But given the US’s zeal for escalation, the most likely outcome is they are going to pulverize his tanks and aircraft and leave the future Libyan government with a bunch of rubble.
The oil is currently off. They need it back on again. So, they look at the players and say “who can get us there first”? Yes, they held back for a while until they thought they could pick a winner. They have. I’m sure they would have preferred to continue to do business with Ghadaffi, but apparently they thought he was a goner.
Agreed, nothing would be worse in Obama’s eyes than the Middle East going the way of Chavez, Morales, and Correa in South America. Democratically elected governments that absolutely refuse to be pawns of the US. What a terrible concept!
Enjoy the continued killing.
I bet I’m older than you and have lived through mores war lies than you have.
The Government’s policy is murder.
“protect civilians” and “air to ground missiles against armor” are nearly synonymous, aren’t they?
I suppose you are right, a real ceasefire would return the situation to peaceful protests, and Ghadaffi would not remain in power long. This resolution will, in the presence of continued fighting, allow destruction of Ghadaffi’s heavy arms from the air, leaving guys with rifles fighting guys with rifles.
*tick*tick*tick* WTI at $101. Michelle Bachmann is promising gas below $2.
I thought it was obvious that I think Obama’s prime directive is rattling the big stick. I do agree that democracy anywhere scares him and his plutocrat masters. God forbid Americans realize what’s going on right here in River City and start to think that THEY live in a democracy.
Obama sure sounds tough when it’s another countries’ citizens ( especially if there’s an oil connection) in trouble.
US citizens, not so much
No ground troops either. Remember he said that, everyone. When pigs fly
The ICRC moved back into Benghazi after the resolution.
http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/news-release/2011/libya-news-2011-03-18.htm
Does anyone know why the African Union wasn’t included? Or didn’t include themselves?
Since the beginning of the revolution, it was said that Gadaffi identified far more as an African nation than an Arab nation. They issued comments at some point, now nothing I’ve heard.
It’s a good question if they will stay with him now. We hope they let him go, but who can say at this point. It is too early to tell. I would guess they will stay around a few days to see how it shakes out.
They were cited in the resolution:
and,
wow, if this is right, the US could just play a logistical role in this and let France lead. I hope this is right. http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110318/pl_yblog_theenvoy/obama-outlines-limited-u-s-role-in-libya
Could this break up Libya in two?
“The meeting came after a key GOP ally, ranking Senate Foreign Relations Committee vice chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), objected to the administration deploying U.S. military personnel or assets for the Libya intervention without first coming to Congress to get a declaration of war. Lugar also wanted the administration to explain how the Libya mission would be paid for.”
This is from the article you linked to. Indeed, it must be paid for.
I seriously doubt it. There is no part of the country that Gaddafi can hold without the use of force.
yeah, and an act of congress is needed. Better if we just sit this one out and just provide AWACs support. I’m sure we’ve had AWACs missions up and running already in the region for weeks now.
Seeing as how it’s the Wall Street Journal, it is more likely that Egypt does not have border resources to stop it rather than actually using their stockpiles. But that like most opinions now is a WAG.
Can’t eat honor.
No. More. Wars.
Got it?
True but he does control the west for now anyway. I hope wwe can sit this one out but I doubt it.
Thank you, ondelette; looks like I should have read the Resolution. Glad to see them included.
8 questions for those who goaded the US into intervention in Libya
1) What is the purpose of military intervention in Libya?
a. To make sure the fight for control of the country is even-handed.
b. To make sure the opposition wins.
c. To make Obama look as tough as the French president.
2) What happens if Gaddafi wins anyway?
a. The intervention is called off and everything goes back to the way it was.
b. The intervention continues interminably, eventually resulting in another trumped up invasion a la Iraq.
3. How long will the intervention last?
a. Until the opposition wins.
b. Until Gadaffi wins.
c. Until we’re all buried in our graves and our kids are old.
4. What are the rules of engagement for the intervention?
a. There are none and they’re being made up on the fly.
b. Rules of engagement?
5. What if Libyans shoot down a US, French, or British jet?
a. Escalation of conflict.
b. No big deal.
6. Who is paying for the intervention?
a. US taxpayers.
b. The tooth fairy.
7. What existing government program will the money to pay for the intervention be taken from in order to keep from increasing the deficit?
a. Heating assistance for low income Americans.
b. Corporate welfare and tax cuts for the wealthy.
8. Who instigated the intervention?
a. The same NeoDemocrats who supported invading Iraq.
b. The conservative leaders of France and the UK.
c. Despotic leaders of the Arab League.
d. Corporatists eager for more lucrative Libyan oil contracts.
e. All of the above.
(Sorry for being so late to make up this questionnare,but I never imagined that the United States would be so stupid as to get itself into another open-ended military commitment while it’s already mired in 2 others.)
Just like when we rid ourself of the monster Saddam, right? Or the monster Noriega?
But of course, we’re very selective about our “monsters” here in the U.S. Not much talk about humanitarian aid to N. Korea, Somalia, Zimbabwe, etc.
Ghadhafi has been an Anglo-American tool since the 1950′s. So if he’s a “monster” as you breathlessly exclaim, you’d better realize you’re looking into a very dark mirror.
What happens if the Rebel forces fire on Gadhafi’s army? We’re stepping right into the middle of an internal war and proposing to protect one side. The entire operation is ill-conceived and we’re opening Pandora’s box.
If you were truly following the events unfolding in Libya, you’d have known we have NO business _starting_ a war in Libya. As a UN member, we can justly offer military assistance _after_ the UN resolution on no fly zone passed.