At the beginning of his conference call today, deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes mentioned the London conference attended by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She met with coalition partners and members of the Libyan opposition, and he said the conference agreed on a dual track of responsibilities for the mission. But he also let slip, in reference to another question, that the conference discussed planning for a post-Gadhafi Libya. That may be prudent, but you basically have a set of officials far removed from the ground making decisions on the future of a country while running a military mission that supposedly does not include a mandate for regime change. In fact, the leaders at the London conference all agreed that Gadhafi had to go.
Now, there are UN resolutions that allow for a number of tools, including sanctions and economic freezes and embargos, that clearly are designed to remove Gadhafi from power. But Secretary Clinton went well beyond that when she intimated that the US could arm the Libyan rebels without violating current UN restrictions:
Hillary Clinton has paved the way for the United States to arm the Libyan rebels by declaring that the recent UN security council resolution relaxed an arms embargo on the country.
As Libya’s opposition leaders called for the international community to arm them, the secretary of state indicated that the US was considering whether to meet their demands when she talked of a “work in progress”.
The US indicated on Monday night that it had not ruled out arming the rebels, though it was assumed this would take some time because of a UN arms embargo which applies to all sides in Libya.
But Clinton made clear that UN security council resolution 1973, which allowed military strikes against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, relaxed the embargo. Speaking after the conference on Libya in London, Clinton said: “It is our interpretation that [resolution] 1973 amended or overrode the absolute prohibition of arms to anyone in Libya so that there could be legitimate transfer of arms if a country were to choose to do that. We have not made that decision at this time.”
I just think that any talk of a limited mission, given this development, is just foolhardy. And while Rhodes insisted on the call that the opposition in Libya has not ask for the coalition to engage in regime change, they are asking for arms so they can do it themselves. I don’t know what else you can call that.
Mahmoud Shammam, the council’s head of media, told a press conference at the Foreign Office: “We asked everybody to help us in many ways. One of them is giving our youth some real weapons.
“If you look to the reports that you have from the streets of Libya or from the cities of Libya you will see that our people have very light arms. You can see that just regular cars are fighting with machine guns. We don’t have arms at all, otherwise we finish Gaddafi in a few days. But we don’t have arms. We ask for the political support more than we are asking for the arms. But if we get both that would be great.”
I can’t think of another uprising in the Arab world where the opposition asked the international community to arm them. Yes, in Libya Gadhafi threatened a massacre, we’re all well aware of that. But arming rebels takes this to an entirely new level. And we simply do not have the kind of information about the rebels, as virtually everyone associated with this mission admits, to make informed decision about the consequences of that.
UPDATE: Then there’s the little item that the new head of the rebel military lived for two decades in suburban Virginia and nobody can figure out what he did for a living there. Maybe he’s just a run-of-the-mill exile who returned to help his country, but the proximity to Langley and the history of intelligence assets leading opposition movements in US wars does point to one option.




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From my comment on your prior post:
No US personnel on the ground? Yeah, right.
The UN said no-fly zone, the Pentagon said bomb the shit out of Libya.
The UN said protect the people, the Pentagon etc. etc.
The problem is that air power, for example 78 days of bombing Yugoslavia, doesn’t accomplish change on the ground.
Arming the rebels is a possibility. If Clinton said it’s an option, it’s probably already being done. But they are still no match for a well-equipped and trained military force.
So look for alliance ground troops. Probably there are special forces already there, helping the CIA guy we sent from Virginia to command the rebel forces.
Obama has told us that Gaddafi the bloodthirsty terrible tyrant (recently a close U.S. ally) must go, so that goal will replace the previous bombing-oriented goals, but this new goal can’t be done with bombing. It requires boots on the ground, mission creep. Will the boots-wearers speak French?
What could possibly go wrong?
Or
Who benefits from this? Follow the money….
Obomba says, “I got us in boys! Have at it! Let’s smoke’em out! Yee Haw!”
Carter had this same idea with Afghanistan, how did that turn out?
We’re winning hearts amd minds in Afghanistan right now.
What are you talking about, “we’re freeing the people of an oppressive regime”… *sigh*
You know damn well NATO SF are already on the ground coordinating strikes and likely training the resistance. You can say all you want that the whole 1k resistance is all powerful, but I’ll say you’re full of crap. Right now we are meeting with indifferent parties, bribing them and greasing the wheels for “change”… It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
We are so full of ourselves, its beyond funny. Of course the left will sit there silently now.. After all “we had to do it..” “People were going to die..”
It is amazing how selective we are on who is worth saving and who isn’t.. How many millions sit at home praying every night that they’ll somehow get a job, or make enough to support their families… We throw our own out in the street, but anything for people overseas where there is oil in the ground.
Makes me sick.
I don’t think it matters much that the military leader is a former CIA operative, as long as he is competent.
I read the Egyptians are already arming the rebels, and ultimately those arms come from us.
Boots on the ground should be a last resort, but it would be preferable to letting this drag on indefinitely. We should all recognize, even if we can’t say it out loud, that the goal is to get rid of Gaddhafi. Then we should use the best means of accomplishing that.
Gaddafi is taken out. Somehow, perhaps some undefined bomb/missile.
Then the rebel military guy from Virginia takes over the operation and invites the collation to send advisers, not prevented by the UN agreement, which is now void.
Nice and neat creeping.
A coworkers friend is on the USS Enterprise. They left the Libyan NFZ operation last week and returned to pirate patrol, but they left minus a couple strike teams.
But Obama already said Mission Acomplished in Libya:
Moreover, we have accomplished these objectives consistent with the pledge that I made to the American people at the outset of our military operations. I said that America’s role would be limited; that we would not put ground troops into Libya; that we would focus our unique capabilities on the front end of the operation, and that we would transfer responsibility to our allies and partners. Tonight, we are fulfilling that pledge.
Hey Secretary Clinton have you gotten around to writing up the contractor immunity papers yet?
I haven’t been following Yugoslavia for a long time and didn’t know there were no changes. Which side is winning now? Or is it a stalemate?
Well, this is all ya need to know (from wiki):
“Oil reserves in Libya are the largest in Africa and the ninth largest in the world with 41.5 billion barrels (6.60×10^9 m3) as of 2007. Oil production was 1.8 million barrels per day (290×10^3 m3/d) as of 2006, giving Libya 63 years of reserves at current production rates if no new reserves were to be found. Libya is considered a highly attractive oil area due to its low cost of oil production (as low as $1 per barrel at some fields), and proximity to European markets. Libya would like to increase production from 1.8 Mbbl/d (290×10^3 m3/d) in 2006 to 3 Mbbl/d (480×10^3 m3/d) by 2010–13 but with existing oil fields undergoing a 7–8% decline rate, Libya’s challenge is maintaining production at mature fields, while finding and developing new oil fields. Most of Libya remains unexplored as a result of past sanctions and disagreements with foreign oil companies.[1]“ (My emphasis)
Do I hear a cash register ringing?
A-yep!
Anybody see this guy and Hamid Karzai n the same place at the same time?
I’m first in line for a loan from the New Bank of Tripoli.
Yugoslavia has been balkanized
Obama’s Curveball
Better get yer contractors license in order!
I’m thinkin he hung out with Chalabi.
The picture on that Guardian article is amazing. Hillary talking to the press (?) with what looks to be the British Foreign Secretary in the background with a “wtf?” look on his face. Article sayz he says they didn’t discuss it but …. aw, heck, seems we’ll have to consider it now …
Ivory Coast.
My reax to yer Update: Dayen funny.
Puh-leeze. We who lived there know how this works: everyone in my high school class, and our parents, thought that nice Mr Angleton grew orchids for a living. So there’s a long, long history of nice neighbors looking the other way for the Company.
They don’t need no stinkin’ papers.
“UPDATE: Then there’s the little item that the new head of the rebel military lived for two decades in suburban Virginia and nobody can figure out what he did for a living there. Maybe he’s just a run-of-the-mill exile who returned to help his country, but the proximity to Langley and the history of intelligence assets leading opposition movements in US wars does point to one option.”
Sounds like we’ve got another Hamid Karzai on our hands, minus the poppy profits of course– someone who can string us along while sucking on the tit of the military-industrial complex.
I guess you’re right. Who’s going to press any charges?
OCCUPATION!
For their own good!
Oy. Vey.
Do I need a snark tag?
the technical name for this is mission creep.
WTF? You’re not following the rules. You’re not allowed to compare this to Iraq. Juan says so.
Only because that term was fabricated for these situations.
The reality is “everything’s going according to plan”.
Citizen Arbusto:
I’ll betcha a toke of Panama’s finest that those aren’t “US personnel” but corporate mercenaries…the professuional military brass are now movin’ into the state security structure to command the mercenary armies of the corporate bosses. Mercs are doin most of the embassy guardin’ and occupation “hot missions” in Iraq with the cheap enlisted regular army and marines pullin guard duty and traffic control for the mercs.
Last time the Clintons were in power at least 800,000 died in Rwanda with the US doing nothing Hopefully that lesson has been learned. But the problem that still remains is that with our increased need for imorted oil, we have all these client states in the Middle East. Remember this year the Clintons claimed that the Mubariks were “friends of the family”.
I did ask on one early Cole O ball licking post on Libya about why it wasn’t Iraq 2003, why wasn’t it Iraq 1992. Cole didn’t deign to respond, but one of his acolytes did have some sort of weak response, with some minor diffs, like “local” had asked for NFZ in Libya but not Iraq.
But didn’t Bush 1 encourage an uprising in Iraq and then renege on the behind-the-scenes (?) promise to support the uprising … which ended in Ghadaffy gassing his own people … to which the US replied … *crickets?*
It’s all SO selective.
Yeah, because WHY we’re there makes a huge difference.
Don’t confuse anyone with facts, plz.
Yes. Thanks. Just cannot keep my puppet dictators straight … sheesh.
Actually Libya would be a great base for illicit heroin trade into Europe, especially if they could broker a deal with Karzai, because they share the same pimp.
Oh, right-o, sorry. *g*
Oh, dear, that struck me as very, very funny ……..
It’s hard when they’re all constantly dancing around.
On edit – that was for reader@42
Stavridis tells congress NATO can commit ground troops.
I’m not supposed to say this but maybe it’s more moral to just go in and try to capture him, alive if possible, than to throw a lot of bombs and planes at Libya. How about offering him amnesty and safe haven in some country if he steps down while giving him an ultimatum that we’re coming after him.
A little more politically correct comment at,
http://my.firedoglake.com/richardkanepa/2011/03/29/the-people-united-can-always-be-exterminated
He “gassed his own people” when he was still our ally. I think the post “Bush’s wild ride 1.0″ reprisal was of the garden variety mow them down with helicopter gunfire type…
Actually, that is the next logical step, now that Obama has declared “mission accomplished.”
And deprive the missile manufacturers the opportunity to replenish at great cost the ordinance that’s been dropping on his country?
I would prefer that a special forces team just take the guy out. Or capture him. A 6-man SEAL team could do the job in a matter of hours.
That wouldn’t feed the MIC, though.
I owe you a drink.
Well, in that case, I guess we owe Ghadaffy some kind of pass for his recent behavior. IF we’re dealing fairly with all our puppet dictators …. /s
duh.
Who coulda anticipated.
Or put in the baby blue helmuts who aren’t allowed to fire even if a massacre is occurring before their eyes. How’d that work out for ya.
Vodka or bourbon. I’m not picky.
I am *secretly* liking that idea a lot, too.
They’ll talk about peacekeepers (and have already started), but only as a shell game before they end up sending in the forces with full powers.
It would be a much faster and more cost effective solution. Also save a lot of lives. The British SAS could easily handle it. I can’t imagine Gadhafi has much more than a few dozen people around him at any given time.
Alas, the MIC would not get their dollars and cents. So this will not happen.
Big deal, Barry. That involved a passing of the swagger stick from General Ham (USArmy) to Admiral Stavridis (USNavy). Thanks for nuthin.
Have any of these jackasses heard of the term blowback?
Unless W or 0 (yes that’s a zero, my new name for him) rescinded EO 12333 — they can’t
I read last week that it was determined a president can act outside of or contradictory to an EO. It’s just considered changing the EO.
Now that you say that, I think you’re probably right
Cheney set the precedent for that. Off the top of my head, I forget the exact specifics
How about Iran’53 ?
Can? More like WILL.
That’s right … there was that thing floating around a while back that 0 had determined that he could order the assassination of an AMERICAN citizen if he so wished. So outrageous, one would want to block it from memory, for sure.
Good idea ,I volunteer you.
Make sure you put the revolver right next to his head so you spray his brains all over you.
W did amend it. But not the part on prohibition of assassinations
Worked like a charm when the Mujaheddin was armed in Afghanistan. No problem there.
Blue Texan is upstairs!
Few Surprised to Learn That Tea Party Presidential Straw Poll Winner is a Crazy Bigot
We intervened on the assumption that if we provided air power, the rebels would regain the initiative and win in a short time. Simple question here that I wish somebody would have asked: What happens if they start to lose and it becomes clear that they are going to be defeated? Do we accept that fact and leave?
Consider the fact that this is a disorganized force of amateurs fighting a trained army. Chances are that they will lose on the ground no matter how much air power is inflicted. Real soldiers know that you can only win on the ground up close.
An untrained person could probably shoot a rifle to some effect, but more sophisticated weapons require time and instruction and organization to use. American weapons will require American trainers or trainers trained in America. What do people like Hillary Clinton think they are talking about?
Amateur ideologues like Sarkozy, Hillary Clinton and Amanda Power have to idea what they are doing, and opportunists like Obama will do whatever he thinks will serve his election.
We are waist deep in the Big Muddy, and the big fool says, “Press On!”.
Viet Nam on sand, here we come. Arm the rebels, then send in advisers, then trainers, then a limited number of support and transport troops, then limited operations personnel, then full combat units, then the rebels have to be encouraged to fight their own war, then the rebels turn on the U.S.
You get the picture, right?
The whole reason for the war is rather unconvincing and founded on unsubstantiated allegations from rebels about Gadhafi’s “atrocities.” Apparently, we’re preventing massacre by dropping bombs and creating another massacre.
Speaking of Iraq:
Bloody Attack in Iraqi City [Provincial council office] Leaves Scores Dead, Including Gunmen and Hostages LINK.
Good reporting. Sad day for news.
I wonder if this guy was Karzai’s neighbor – part of the joing Oil Brigade / “Company”. How many Black Helicopters over Libya?
But it’s all worth it because we’re saving the children™
I liked this line: “Badr said he was unsure exactly what Hifter did to support himself, and that Hifter primarily focused on helping his large family.” Be careful when foreign military leaders resign/switch sides to “spend more time with my family”.