I don’t believe the Gadhafi regime is that concerned about the rebels themselves, who are just learning to use their guns and who have serious issues with dissension among their military leadership. But the military air campaign from the international coalition gives time and space for the rebels to work out their differences and figure out how to fight. And in the meantime it’s destroying most of their heavy-duty military assets. The regime probably rightly believes that some ground forces will eventually be introduced to the conflict. And anyway, with the chaos of war comes palace intrigue.
Therefore:
At least two sons of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi are proposing a resolution to the Libyan conflict that would entail pushing their father aside to make way for a transition to a constitutional democracy under the direction of his son Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, a diplomat and a Libyan official briefed on the plan said Sunday.
The rebels challenging Colonel Qaddafi as well as the American and European powers supporting them with air strikes have so far insisted on a more radical break with his 40 years of rule. And it is not clear whether Colonel Qaddafi, 68, has signed on to the reported proposal backed by his sons, Seif and Saadi el-Qaddafi, although one person close to the sons said the father appeared willing to go along.
But the proposal offers a new window into the dynamics of the Qaddafi family at a time when the colonel, who has seven sons, is relying heavily on them. Stripped of one of his closest confidantes by the defection of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa and isolated by decades of attempted coups and internal purges, he is leaning on his sons as trusted aides and military commanders.
There’s almost no chance that the opposition would accept Seif al-Islam, who has been the voice of the regime in many ways, as a new leader. But in this leak, Seif and the backers of this move are talking in the language of the protests, saying that he shares the “wishes of the rebellion” and seeks to transition to a new constitutional democracy with “change for the country.” Maybe he actually feels this way, but moreover, this signals a need for acceptance from the opposition and an acknowledgement that the next leader must be responsive to them. That’s a key admission by a member of the Gadhafi family.
It’s not a shared belief; there are hardliners among the Gadhafis, and if the patriarch stepped down or were killed, you would see brother-to-brother fighting, in all likelihood.
So it’s not so much whether this move will come to fruition so much as what it says about the current war effort.





15 Comments


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Constitutional monarchy is an oxymoron and the Gadhafi family sure sounds like a real vipers den to me. What completely unpalatable options especially if the two noxious elements combine.
Meanwhile, the great protectors appear to be using depleted uranium bullets.
This tactic is classic Bush ask for twice as much as you want hope the other side folds. They want their cash, exile to France and a promise of no war crimes.
6 months after the French election they might get what they ask for.
Great they were listed as a possible cause of Gulf War syndrome in the first Gulf War but nobody followed up on that in the MSM as I recall. I wonder what MarkfromIreland has to say about them being used in Iraq?
Any bets the Saudis and Israelis are supporting them staying in power Bahrain and Palestine after all might get them both up for war crimes trials for the same shit.
Oh, God, not DU. Another country we’ve nuked.
In other news, Obama has announced his re-election campaign. Why am I not excited?
Military hides everything it knows about DU. Sez it’s perfectly safe, but I have read reports to the contrary. Apparently it sublimates, gets into the air, can be inhaled, and all sorts of scuzzy things follow.
In this case it seems to be bullets, not bombs, and evidence is not yet definitive, but it wouldn’t be surprising.
Maybe the bros. can go join W and Laura in Dallas? Seems to be a pretty safe place; could have an exhibit in the L’bray….
It’ll be interesting to see how this administration ‘handles’ the Gadhafi sons’ proposal. Following a bombing in Afghanistan that killed 4,000 Afghans, Taliban leaders offered Bush to turn over binLaden to a neutral nation. Bush refused labeling the offer “insincere.”
If the Obama administration’s reaction to the sons’ proposal in any way resembles the Bush label, we can expect our involvement in Libyan politics to be years long and with an equally fruitless outcome.
His email gave name a delightful opportunity to remove myself from his mailing lists (again!) and also the opportunity to enumerate my reasons for doing so…not that anyone will read my message. Anyway I hope the WH WHore is sent packing back to Rahm.
Jon Walker has a fresh cross-post available: Vote for Obama in 2012 Because… He’s Obama
Ceasefires happen when there is mutual political interest to do so. Neither party in Libya sees a ceasefire other than a means to “stop your advances but not mine”. If the Gaddafi clan is serious, they would end emergency rule in Tripoli, allow protesters to freely gather–in short to try to co-opt the revolution like Saleh in Yemen did for a few weeks before his thugs entered Sanaa University and shot over 50 people. And he can allow independent media free access to western Libya the way that the rebels have allowed access in eastern Libya. That the Gaddafi clan has not even mentioned this shows that the diplomatic effort is one of trying to hold off additional NATO strikes while the ceasefire is pursued.
Nuke bullets are still nukes.
I’ll have what you’re having.