Dan Fejes at Pruning Shears has the simplest explanation for why Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus’ contention about failing to save in Microsoft Access is illogical. Nickolaus has made this the culprit for why 14,000 votes just turned up two days after the election when they weren’t initially in the unofficial totals. It’s a wonkish post, but Fejes is pretty clear – the short version is that there is no save function, and Access is pretty idiot-proof throughout. I won’t excerpt – just go read it.
Now, fortunately there’s a simple fix for all this. Because of what we know about Kathy Nickolaus, it would be unwise to take her claims at face value. Waukesha County votes on paper ballots and all the data remains available. So just count the votes. If it all matches up, Nickolaus was telling the truth and there’s nothing to fear. But until then, there’s plenty of reason to be appropriately skeptical. Here’s what her former co-worker counseled:
Now my opinion: FIRST THING IN THE MORNING someone needs to file a FOIA request and state open records request for the data on her computer. And impound the damn computer and do a complete forensic investigation.”
Citizen Action of Wisconsin has called for such a federal investigation and an “immediate impoundment of all computer equipment, ballots, and other relevant evidence needed to verify a fair vote count in Waukesha County.” This is what the other side and their team of Bush v. Gore lawyers would be calling for if the tables were turned. John Nichols writes:
Suppose the Democratic governor of Illinois had proposed radical changes in how the state operates, and suppose anger over those proposed changes inspired a popular uprising that filled the streets of every city, village and town in the state with protests. Then, suppose there was an election that would decide whether allies of the governor controlled the state’s highest court. Suppose the results of that election showed that an independent candidate who would not be in the governor’s pocket narrowly won that election.
Then, suppose it was announced by a Democratic election official in Chicago that she had found 14,000 votes in a machine-controlled ward that overwhelmingly favored the candidate aligned with the Democratic governor. And suppose the Democratic official who “found” the needed ballots for the candidate favored by the Democratic governor had previously been accused of removing election data from official computers and hiding the information on a personal computer, that the official’s actions had been censured even by fellow Democrats and that she her secretive and erratic activities had been the subject of an official audit demanded by the leadership of the Cook County Board.
Now, suppose that the number of additional votes tabulated for the governor’s candidate was precisely the amount needed to prevent the independent candidate from demanding an official recount.
Would even the most naive Illinoisan simply accept at face value that the new count was “legitimate” or that the governor’s candidate should suddenly be presumed to have been “elected”? Not likely.
Exactly right. JoAnne Kloppenburg is, at this hour, within the 0.5% that would allow her to call for a recount paid for by the state. She should exercise the option. And extreme care should be taken with Waukesha County. This could all turn out to be perfectly legitimate. All doubt of that can and should be removed.




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Immaculate Deception.
Any real investigation will involve complete email, phone and cell phone records of all concerned.
Oops, there’s a Federal shut down, so DOJ will be MIA.
A federal investigation? Why not just wait for the official canvass of the vote, it isn’t like the number of unrecorded votes from Waukesha/Brookfield are out of line with past elections.
To the casual observer, it looks like she used her computer to aggregate the votes, and she made a mistake using excel. If that is true, then:
1) her computer is not the official record of the votes. It is just a conduit between the actual votes and the AP. And AP is not an official record either. The only official record would be the votes themselves – preserved in a paper format – and the report of the election to the satate board.
2) all of the original votes are still there – they can, and SHOULD be recounted to determine if the record going to the state board is accurate.
All told, there has been a lot of comment around this case that doesn’t seem to reflect what actually happened here.
Am I wrong, or is there a way where the official records of the state are maintained only on someone’s private laptop?
Yes. The county’s tally is on the pc Ms. Nickolaus personally controls, which is segregated from the county’s system, even to the point that she alone controls whether, how and when to create back-ups for it. She was heavily criticized for that “process”, so ripe with potential error it would make a Six Sigma engineer howl, but she laughed in response and said it was all up to her.
So, yes, the apparent or real conflicts of interest and system inadequacies are abundant. She does control the official count. She should be immediately audited. The pc in her private office should be seized and subjected to a forensic analysis, along with her phone, pda and other records. The official paper ballots, of course, should be recounted by a neutral or bipartisan group and their prior physical custody audited.
If she were on the up and up, she would have already offered all of that in order to dispel the appearance of impropriety her arrogant, stand-alone systems choices created.
That’s the current right-wing chant, because who would be so stupid or corrupt (or both) to do that… and who would be so stupid or corrupt (or both) to allow her to continue doing that after she was caught doing it?
But the reality has been very different from the winger version. (surprise)
Official results.
Her computer.
No independent oversight possible
She was audited on this and she was told that her setup was messed up and that she needed to stop.
She told the auditors to fuck off.
Just like she just told the voters of WI to fuck off.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7988
Here we go:
State Government Accountability Board to inspect Waukesha votes LINK.
Just more fuel for the recalls which will culminate with Walkers recall turned in by March 2012. Who will be Walkers opponent in this recall. My opinion is it will be none other then RUSS FIENGOLD who will win in a landslide and who will push a progressive agenda in counter point force to what WALKER laid on us immediately after his inauguration. Single payer health plan in Wisconsin anyone????
Having corresponded with John Washburn in the past about election integrity, I can say with complete certitude that if there is funny biz, John will ‘out it’. Brilliant fella.
You know what is in that Access database, unless she deleted it? An import error table.
And you know that if she deleted it, there’s a ghost record of it in the same damn database, including the time it was imported.
And you know what else? The original spreadsheet that was imported has some meta values that you just can’t delete.
Smelly, smelly, smelly, and all provable.
Given the blatant Republicanism, I’ve posted a diary here where those who want to do something practical to help JoAnne Kloppenburg can.
Wow this is great! Maybe they can revise who won the civil war as well!
I said before, will say it again
if joanne is within recount territory the entire point is moot
Thank you!
The suggestion that all of her computers and files be seized and a forensic audit done will turn up more worms than we can imagine slipping from just one can.
Geez, I hope they go after her big time on this one and that there is some court action regarding jail time. She has been warned previously and told everyone where to go because she knows best.
Typical Republican!
The thing about Access is once it’s entered, it’s saved unless you come along and remove it.
Someone said in the other blog that precincts ran out of paper ballots and used the tablets?
Any more information on this? How many precincts? How many votes?
Any voter, poll worker, or poll watcher testimonials?
Yep. I’ve reconstructed data from that before. I found where my predecessor was just entering bullshit information.
Nickolaus is also asking us to believe that in a county of only 380,000 people, 110,587 people voted in an off-year judiciary election. That number would seem to me to represent some 80-90% turnout of registered voters.
Margaret,
I need some help here. I just got home from work and all of a sudden on the first post I look at here are the trolls out in force again.
Because you are so good at putting them in their place, have you had to do this all day long?
If there is nefarious activity to be found, I hope they don’t roll over and give this woman immunity again. Republicans scream about voter fraud while they are actually perpetrating it. ALL of these “glitches” favor Republicans. Statistically speaking there should be some favoring Democratic candidates by now.
To hell with wasting time and money on recounts and looking under desks for votes!
I say re-vote on State Seal ballots that have been numbered and counted by parties of 5 with 10 observers at each poll site!
I haven’t been here all day long and to be honest, I’m tired of battling trolls. You can’t have a rational discussion with somebody who refuses to recognize reality from fiction.
Now now. That’s uncalled for.
Just ignore him.
Heh. I hope she goes to trial, and the case comes before Kloppenburg’s court.
Now that would be some SWEET JUSTICE!
Thanks Margaret,
You do have a way with words in putting down these critters.
When I saw your name pop up, I thought that if anyone would know, you would.
How is the job hunt going? I read a lot of the times and you have so many talents that just slip out in conversation, I am sure there is a special job that will find you.
Hoping for the best!!!
You know what else I just thought of? You CAN’T save a malformed query in Access. If the query won’t run, you can’t save it. (One does have to affirmatively save queries and table relationships, just not the tables themselves.)
But what you CAN do is write a query to yield bullshit results. Like doubling COUNTs. If a person isn’t careful writing SELECT statements, that can easily happen.
My Access spidey-sense is on high alert in this case.
Exactly and yep, not having to save the tables is what I was saying. Enter the information into a table and it’s there. You have to take it out for it not to be saved.
Umm, well, no news this week. It’s been a pretty lean week as far as even possibilities goes. Gotta get my happy ass back to Austin.
“Waukesha County votes on paper ballots and all the data remains available. So just count the votes. If it all matches up, Nickolaus was telling the truth and there’s nothing to fear.” ???????????
NOPE not true
paper ballots do not mean the election was not stolen – this is the same nonsense that Bev Harris used to kill the Federal audit bill.
We had paper ballot stuffing, paper ballot losing and replacement, during the JFK/Nixon election in 1960. To say “just count the votes” is to say where to start – but a full audit is required of every procedure and check and control in the WI voting process.
Hay don’t chicken out and record it on video. no not #1 at two!
Good luck!
I have to leave to go get medicine for my wife.
Take care and have a great weekend.
Never happen but ROFLMAO on your challenge!! Will there be film at eleven??
You too! :) And thanks!
My take on this:
Her claim of found votes is way too easily dis proven. The root issue is that the vote data was stored in her personal PC, using MS Access, and her claim of a glitch in saving the count is a lie, because Access autosaves. Even then, all votes in her district are in question, so they may all be thrown out, because they cannot be verified.
Her story is laughable. And her behavior in the interview shows that she is being coerced and she knows she is lying, and the truth is too easily exposed. So the question now is “why?” And the answer is, to stall the election results through protracted litigation and investigation, long enough so Walker and the Kochs can get their agenda pushed through the WI legislature. The Kochs have a sordid history of sleazy deals and string pulling in WI, and this is just another example.
I feel for the woman. She is in way over her head, very scared, and knows she will be sacrificed for the Koch agenda. However, there is one more wrinkle here, and that is this: she ratted out once before to escape jail, and I think she will do it again, when the DOJ comes knocking.
My bet is that she is having doubts the Kochs will save her rear end, and they will throw her to the wolves, so she may well tell all to the DOJ to save her own hide. Or maybe she will simply understand that she is doing the wrong thing.
OT. I had the pleasure of going to the grocery store in my FDL tee shirt today. I smirked at all of the teabagger looking shoppers.
But wait… If setting things up this way doubled the counts, then wouldn’t the results be twice as correct? And if you ran it five times, it would be ten times as correct, right? Audit, Schmaudit…
Reply to Margaret @ 22,
My friend used tohad a quote that seems appropriate here,
“I refuse to match wits with an unarmed person.”
Can it be simple arrogance? That seems to be what’s fueling all Wisconsin Republicans these days.
use gloves.
How does one look like a teabagger?
Among other systems and management errors of Ms. Nickolaus, she allows at least three of her staff to use the same login id and pw.
That’s a pretty basic error for a programmer with 15 years’ experience. It would violate most corporate and government policies. It’s such a basic failing, it would lead to sanctions under EU data protection guidelines, which mandate maintenance of competent physical and virtual data security measures.
Ms. Nickolaus claims it would take too long for her staff to log in or off if they each used unique id’s and pw’s. How lame is that? Apart from lax security, her choice makes it very hard to determine which person is actually, you know, accessing the system at any one time.
Ms. Nickolaus is beginning to sound like a very useful patsy.
It’s not so much the look as the smell.
It has the advantage of clouding the exact user. Special.
I’m sorry, but on the contrary, there is a possibility that doubt can not be removed.
If, as was reported on the Bradblog, there was a shortage of paper ballots that resulted in use of touch-screen voting machines, then there is the possibility that those electronic votes cannot be verified.
From the Bradblog;
That would stand in stark contrast to the situation in Minnesota, where the Coleman-Franken recount could be trusted more completely because the physical ballots could all be inspected.
That notorious above mentioned computer could, will, or has been replaced by a different one. There has been plenty of time to tamper with evidence.
Like Cheetos, ass and sulfur?
Heave shit going down. The Not-sees are making a strong try; I hope we’re ready for them.
I just got this in my email box :
Petition ( spread it around)
So much to do, so little time!
In central Texas, it’s usually sleeveless shirts, usually with some version of “Don’t Fuck with America” on it, a stars and bars hat, “don’t tread on me” or some variation. You’ll see when you get here. Trust me. Well, not so much in central Austin but go up to Williamson County and they will be all over.
That’s it..I’m gonna throw up.
the bags are a dead giveaway. *groan*
And would have gotten anybody fired at HJF. You just didn’t do that because not everybody had the same access level.
You got Yours Already??? I am thoroughly jealous ☻☻☻ Take picture of you self and share Peg we all would love to see it on you and be sure and be smirking like a Cheshire Cat!!
And everybody’s focus is on Waukesha, when IMO Milwaukee County is where the attention should be.
Dollars to donuts this turns out to be an intentional, legitimate mistake, that the votes are valid, and everyone’s focus is on Waukesha county.
Pretty smart if you knew Milwaukee County wouldn’t hold up to scrutiny.
One-sided much?
The audits had been proven worthless in studies because they were set amounts which told the perps in advance exactly what they needed in order to throw the election and the ensuing audit.
But in return the person (and their organization) most identified with pushing the audits signed on to Rush Holts massive corporate giveaway of a voting “reform” bill… and attempted to toss the rest of the election integrity movement under the bus in the process.
Keep your chin up and enjoy Austin, an island in a sea of conservatism.
I can’t see that, the pain that can be dealt by them would make the other guys seem like peanuts.
Maybe I’ll wear it when I get a pic of me and Kuroneko on her birthday. :)
Austin is my home. I can’t wait to get back.
How can we get that out there? Anybody have enough info to make a case for it?
Reply to azureblue1 April 8th, 2011 at 1:48 pm @ 35
“My bet is that she is having doubts the Kochs will save her rear end, and they will throw her to the wolves, so she may well tell all to the DOJ to save her own hide. Or maybe she will simply understand that she is doing the wrong thing.”
And the DOJ will do what? Put a tag on the case saying it is in the national security interest to not look behind…
It is entirely possible that paper ballots were “manufactured” to meet the needs of Walker/Posser/Nickolaus. That would mean that the paper ballots necessary to justify the number were/are being produced to match the computer. To figure out what really happened would require FBI level forensics to determine at the chronology of information uploaded to the computer..
Ms. Nickolaus does seem to be in over her head, a Wisconsin version of Monica Goodling. If something is truly amiss and someone has to take a fall, it will be her.
You know what Kelly? It’s been a couple of years but I’m pretty sure the way our database was set up, it also automatically saved all working queries and table relationships too. This was required to make the annual audit easier and as it was human subject research, it couldn’t be half assed or people could go to jail.
Wonder if she’s another Liberty University grad?
OT: Suzanne’s daughter is in labor!!
I spent a week one day in Dallas: come to Jesus or go to hell, the billboards yelled, and shop like you mean it. They were easy to read while stalled in that parking lot they call an interstate. Your t-shirt probably won’t seem so out of place near the U of T.
Perish the thought.
Yep – after you make and save once, they stay saved. It’s just necessary on the creation of the initial “object” then – boom – stays the same forever until modified.
w00t!!!
W00t!
I read that as “Penis the thought” initially.
I was confused until I reread.
Damn, I just got up from a nap, and already I owe ya a drink.
Smirking???
I didn’t take but one semester of statistics, and that was decades ago, so I can’t say for sure what is and isn’t statistically significant.
But I’ve posted about the statistics I came up with by comparing EVERY COUNTY with at least 40,000 (so as to not have small counties where small swings could easier distort the data) and in every county the trends were where yoo would expect given the events of the last two months. Kloppenburg outperformed or was with a few points of outperforming Barret more than Prosser did Walker votes. The momentum was swinging toward K. But in Milwaukee County, Prosser outperformed her (in relation to their votes compared to the 2010 vote) by EIGHTEEN PERCENT. A huge outlier.
And this in a county where they elected a new D County Executive by over 20 points. AND WPR (Wisconsin Public Radio) gave results from several representative wards that they had picked and she was OUTPERFORMING Barrett in EVERY ONE, not underperforming.
Folks have offered up lots of reasons about WHY this could happen, but noone, to my knowledge, has offered up reasons why it would happen in Milwaukee County but no other populous county.
It smells bad to me.
I’m in a rootbeer mood.
Dallas is about as far from Austin philosophically as Cambodia is from Canada.
W00T! Good luck to Grammy and Jen and the soon to be here little lady☺
Definitely. It stinks and they are going to get caught one way or the other I hope..
Ah! Yep, that sounds right.
I think you should be emailing these thoughts to the local papers, the state officials, etc.
Maybe nobody else has put this information together yet.
WooHoo!
I’m wondering if this is something she did all on her own without thinking it through? If she gets busted, that’s sure how the Republicans are going to try to sell it.
Sliding one down the bar.
My parents used to make root beer. It was the best ever. If I can remember the taste, it was prolly bc it was less sweet than store bought.
Also, I think they made it from some concentrate. Not sure how they made it fizz but it did have to sit for awhile before it was ready to drink. Then (1950s) the glass bottles were not as strong and uniform as they are now, and the fizzy part always differed a little. So every once in awhile, we would be sitting upstairs & hear one of the bottles explode in the basement, which was always fun for a kid. It was a whole scene.
You can bet on that for sure.
Bradblog notes that the 7500+ vote margin for Prosser, recently discovered in Waukesha, is almost exactly the number needed to put the recount above the threshold where the state pays for it: 7500 out of 1.5 million voters is 0.5%.
What a coinkydink. If that margin holds, Ms. Kloppenburg’s supporters have to pay for it. Why do I sense the clammy cold of Karl Rove passing in the shadows?
Call me stupid but this thing is just going to turnout (no pun intended) bad.
Dang I can remember having some of that home made stuff and hearing about the bottles exploding, but shit that Was a long time ago…
A lone gunman, no doubt about it. Poor overzealous Kathy; what a shame. I can read the script from here. I hope it’s not needed and that our Ms. Kathy isn’t as foolish as her explanation sounds, and that the numbers come out correctly.
I imagine that’s God’s joke; she thinks like that.
As I said, 1950s. And once you live thru it, you never forget.
Or maybe that’s the dementia thingy, where the older I get, the younger my memory gets.
Found Nickolaus’ demeanor extremely suspicious. The fact that she was a computer programmer is even more suspicious.
It must be beer:thirty where you are in California; it is somewhere.
Hey I have to run down the list of the kids before I get to the right one I am wanting to talk about.. And in the past(when they were all home) yell at for being out of line.. Frustrating as hell..
Happy dance!
Not for a R computer programmer.
Or it could be ‘learned’ incompetence…
How many kids do you have?
It sure is for me today with all this mean spirited asses that the Republicans are being. glugg glugg..
6 and 10 grand-kids… So far two more haven’t had any Yet..
In case you hadn’t seen this:
http://www.waukeshagop.org/rwwcapr.html
Wow. I can see what you mean. Happy family!
From your link
“go to” indeed.
Thanks eCHAN… Suz has a lot to look forward to!!
rootbeer:thirty. I don’t drink the booze.
I suppose I should explain “outperforming” and “underperforming” and what I looked at.
I looked at every county (with over 40,000 votes) and compared Prossers 2011 votes to Walkers’s 2010 votes, and then Kloppenburg’s 2011 votes to Barretts 2010 votes. So in one county, for example, Prosser would get 62% of the votes Walker got and Kloppenburg would get 70% of the votes Barrett got. Follow? And in every county Kloppenburg’s percentage of Barrett votes was higher than Prosser’s was of Walker votes, OR within a few points of being higher which is what you would expect for a candidate gaining momentum.
But in Milwaukee County, Prosser got 77% of Walker votes (THE HIGHEST OF ANY COUNTY, save perhaps Waukesha now with that extra 14,000 votes) and Kloppenburg only got 61% of Barrett’s votes. (Ugh, I see my math sucks, 77-61 is SIXTEEN PERCENT, not EIGHTEEN, sorry). But it’s still a huge outlier. Not only is the 16% beatdown more than 3 times larger than any other county, the 77% of Walker votes is 10% higher than he could muster in any other county.
And the final tally had Kloppenburg winning 57%-43%, which is badly underperforming Barrett (who also lost, conventional wisdom a D needs 65% of Milwaukee County to win. Barret won by 24 points compared to Kloppenburg winning by 14). And WPR’s representative wards they chose in Milwuakee County showed her outperforming Barrets 24 point win IN EVERY SINGLE ONE THEY LOOKED AT. And the D county executive won by 22 points.
Sorry for beating this dead horse just thought I didn’t do a good job of explaining what numbers I was comparing to what above.
It`s past his bedtime anyway.
Have you contacted Kloppenburg’s staff with your analysis?
This is exactly the term my wife used this morning when we were discussing Waukesha. I think she put it
Agree with eCAHN – do it OFG!
Contact info:
Melissa Mulliken
Campaign Manager
Email: campaign@kloppenburgforjustice.com
608-218-1203
No. I can’t imagine that they’re unaware of it though. It was obvious all night Tuesday night.
Plus, I don’t know how to.
In Germany it was called `working towards the Fuhrer.` Everybody knew what he wanted, and there was no paper trail.
See Kelly right above this comment. Let them know. They may have not done as succinct an analysis as you.
Not sure where I’ve read this (been all over the nets today) but read this clerk underordered ballots, based on a 10% turnout, below what would be an average turnout. The final turnout is ~47%. If the voters were forced onto touch screen machines (not used or calibrated since their last use in 2006), that’s ALOT of the votes not on paper ballots, not subject to ready and quick review. Dieboldish, is what it is.
Why did she wait 29 hours (although she apparently went to the friendly rightwing radio host/station hours before her press conference.)
I want the DOJ in on this, NOW
Ok, email sent.
Thank you Kelly for the info.
It’s done.
Agree on all points.
What I want to know is, if the results were “saved” in such a shoddy and unverifiable manner, CAN they be discounted? And who will determine this?
Now you do, as Kelly supplied it.
And NEVER assume someone knows something that you know. I’m sure the staff has their hands full, and no one can think of doing everything that’s obvious.
One other recommendation with a bit of background. (If you already know how to do this, forgive me for my teachy moment.)
When I was on Wall St, after we wrote a piece of analysis, we had to market it. Marketing might be making presentations, to one of more people, or it might be making 100 individual phone calls, or sending out email summaries of a blast phone message.
I tried to craft my voice messages carefully. I had in mind several factors. They couldn’t be longer than 5 min. The conclusion was in the first sentence (Yours might be something like, I’ve done some very interesting work on the Milwaukee county vote tallies–make sure to puff up you’re work; no one else will). My work was data intensive, and since they were hearing it instead of looking at it, I had to pick out a couple of really salient pieces, that made the point without being wonky, by way of illustrating the conclusion. If it was a personal call, I tried to finish off with something provocative, so the other personal would ask a Q. I wrote it out, then practiced it several times, until I could say it without stumbling, saying um or you know.
The first many times I did that, it was choppy because for most it’s a learned skill, but much better than if I hadn’t prepared for the specific medium of communication.
And good luck.
Now that you’ve done the email, call them up. Marketing involves contact on every possible level.
Yes. You figured out what to say so that it mattered to them, from their point of view, rather than convince them that they should see the same value you saw in it! Very important.
Yes, another good point. Always look at it from their POV.
Yours is an important reminder that Waukesha County, however important its accurate vote count, could be a shiny object hiding more subtle problems in several other counties. This is a close race, as predictions expected it would be; a dozen votes here and fifty votes there are all that’s required to secure victory.
Karl Rove and his acolytes never put all their eggs in a single basket, and never rely on the most obvious device as their sure winner.
Karl Rove and his acolytes are avid readers; they’ve learned how to manipulate from the best, across the world and over time. The only trick too dirty to use is the one they haven’t invented yet.
Ok, just got off the phone with a young man (damn I forgot his name already AARRRGHGH).
Anyway, he assured me they would look at my email and that they had hired lawyers to look at every county.
FWIW, he did sound genuinely interested in seeing my email.
Good for you!
That’s participation! You should be proud of yourself.
*clapping*
Go OldFatGuy!!!!!! Good work!
Why don’t you post your analysis as a diary at myFDL?
The final vote tally is 110,587. If that is about 47% turnout, that means there are 235,300 registered voters in Waukesha County. The County population is only 380,000. This would put the number of registered voters at 62% of the population. Now, if we assume the numbers from 2000 shown here in wikipedia still hold true, 26% of the county should be under the age of 18.
This means that only 287,660 people are eligible to register to vote based on age. This doesn’t count convicted felons, people on parole, etc.
If Waukesha County holds to the national average of registered voters v. the total pool of people eligible to vote (registered or otherwise) at 70%, this would mean that there would be 201,362 registered voters in Waukesha County.
The math up top that shows a claim of 235,300 registered voters would mean Waukesha County is 16% above the national average, meaning 86% of people eligible to vote are registered to vote. In all likelihood this is not the case.
Not sure where I’m going with all this. Just seems fishier and fishier.
Also, there’s this from the wiki page linked above, under Politics.
So McCain couldn’t carry more than a 26% margin, but Prosser gets 46%, with all of the hijinks Walker’s been getting up to in Madison lately? Odd.
Yippy hooray & good on you!
And good for them for looking at every county.
BTW, I didn’t thing about the details of what you did in depth, but I did understand your methodology. It sounds like the kind of approach I took often, depending on what the problem was. I always looked for outliers.
You might consider a follow up call, depending on what develops. Lawyers are sometimes great at incorporating your kind of analysis, but sometimes they focus on fine points of the law. Need both in this case.
Follow up with an e-mail and call on Monday. I think you’re making an important point about the variety of places in which election-changing fraud could have taken place.
You’re giving them tools they may not have, or already have but take for granted, or haven’t applied in the way you did. They need to hear that ordinary people have the same beliefs and concerns they do. Many thanks for your work.
Perfect!
Now you owe me a drink, re follow-up call.
I’m going to start dinner. But I’ll be back to collect. *g*
On edit: I’m sure the fact that OFG took the time to do in-depth work made a big impression. Most of the phone calls they are getting may be vilification from opponents, or cheerleading from supporters, but few will be real work.
Good point. And frankly, that makes it easier for everyone, not just the Kloppenburg campaign staff to access and review it. It also gives credit for the work where it’s due, no small thing.
Contemporaneous, but beer:thirty needs no excuse.
If you guys think this bit of corruption is audacious wait until someone pushes back hard enough to try and hold county clerk Nickolas accountable; it’ll probably be done in Judge Prosser’s court.
Another thought: the WI Dems better get geared up to perpetrate some serious electioneering fraud of their own if and when they get any of these state legislature senate seats up for recall votes, because it appears quite evident that playing by the rules ain’t gonna get it done.
I don’t have time to read all of the comments right now but I wanted to vent.
This is damned election fraud. Under no circumstances is a personal PC an acceptable election tallying device.
The nation is under the control of corporate whores. I am fucking sick of this piece of shit government that is UTTERLY AND COMPLETELY CORRUPT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And, no! I DON”T feel better now!!!!
This is more great work, like OFG’s! Please send this research to the Kloppenburg people and follow up with a phone call, as e.g., eCAHN has advised OFG to do with his research.
Dang. I just learned how to make an effective cold call. Thx eCAHn.
I guess mostly because I’m mostly puter illiterate.
LOL, I’ve opened up the screen to do one about three or four times and start getting the feeling of being overwhelmed at not knowing what I’m doing (which doesn’t take much *g). So I’ve never done one.
Also, I can’t provide proof of the WPR stuff, and I’m no longer real sure of how big an outlier Milwaukee County will be if the 14,000 additional votes are added into Waukesha county.
All in all I’d rather nudge someone’s curiosity and then maybe someone that does know what the hell their doing will look into it. My lack of knowledge of what is and isn’t statistically significant (particularly in political races) doesn’t give me enough confidence to do a diary.
Sorry Elliott.
EDIT: This is the same reason I haven’t done anything with the new FDL stuff. I’m pretty sure some folks asked me to be their “friend” (whatever that means in this case) and I would go over there and just not really understand what to do or what purpose it’s served. Hope I didn’t offend anyone that did ask, wasn’t my intention. Truth be told if I knew what I was doing I’d ask pretty much every pup to my friend.
Yes, please.
Sent. I’ll call on Monday as it’s 6pm there now.
Yeppers. I came in late to the thread, but yes, Kris should definitely do that.
So should any others (and that includes lurkers) who have done any analysis. Even back of the envelop that is suggestive would be useful. As I said, everyone can’t think of everything that may turn out to be obvious.
I just learned yesterday that several versions of Word, going back a generation or so, have a ‘save as html’ function. (Diaries are in html & FDL backstagers have been very helpful to me in my diaries.) I’m sure that mac has same/better html translators.
I’m also pretty computer illiterate. Mostly owning to RAs when I worked who figured it out for me. But if you start, then holler for help when you’re stymied, you’ll get used to it.
html sucks, but it is what it is. And you can learn it.
Hadn’t thought of applying the methodology to cold calls. Mine, as a researcher, were to people I knew. But of course, it would be useful for cold calls.
OFG and KrisA — Great work. Glad somebody has a taste for analytical math. (Me do nothing beyond multiplication tables!)
Might I suggest you both also email your assessments to Glenzilla?
If ya have word just write the diary there and just cut and paste… I know I have used and it worked…
Typical GOP cheating and disenfranchisement of legitimate voters.
No way this is legit.
No.
Way.
Sent mine to Glenn and suggested that he also read upthread (I linked to my comment) and check out OFG’s post as well.
The amount of baseless speculation is crazy. Let the reviews go through and then we can talk. Its like you guys just can’t accept that elections don’t always go your way.
It always surprises me that republicans don’t find themselves absolutely repulsive, personally. I mean, you’d think there would be some shred of decency in them, somewhere, trying to get out.
Mystifying.
I think that it is actually simpler than that. You can copy a word document into the FDL diary or post space by having the space be in html and then save and switch to the better editor. That should wipe out all of the word formatting nonsense. It works on the other places I post.
I Do not recall and can’t find what it is you are talking about as to fixed sized audits (a California approach as I recall). The Holt bill was going to have the audit language prepared by a group of mathematicians that reflected size of turnout and probability of the audit finding the “error”- I was a mere reviewer of that mathematical language – but Bev got the state election folks worried about the loss of their authority and thus on her side – and she put out the lie that audits do not work and are easily defeated (just as you quoted her). The massive corporate giveaway was to allow paper trail machines – and we got worse by doing nothing.
Bev worked her magic for the GOP and their fixed elections – and that is what we still have whenever Chuck Hagel and friends want it. Killing Holt was one of the more unfortunate things done by folks who I agree were in the main well motivated.
“7500 out of 1.5 million voters is 0.5%. ” Yep – force her to pay for recount
I noticed that – but thought it was too stupid to not allow for pickups by the opponent on review of the tallies – and another 1000 would not make the total change so obviously a con-job.
But Rove is not that smart. I buy the idea of a selected margin accomplished via found new totals for a town that can not be checked or audited.
The Judge must throw out all votes from that town.
The concern about potential shoddy or fraudulent voting practices is not baseless. The GOP has proven that vote manipulation and outright fraud are tools it is ready, willing and able to use when the stakes are high enough.
Keeping the Walker-led campaign of union bashing and disaster capitalism going in the home of Midwest Progressivism is one of them. The Kochs and their peers want it, the GOP want it, Republican governors in a dozen other states are dependent on that momentum going forward.
If every WI county’s elections are on the up and up, or if problems can legitimately be put down to reasonable human error, fine. Politicians and civil servants will know the public is angry and watching and won’t take at face value poorly constructed explanations of curious, election-changing events.
If election fraud has taken place – a felony – voters will remain loud and angry at the corruption of their ballot boxes. They will demand investigations and prosecutions. That’s called citizenship, doing what it takes to maintain a democracy.
Damn Republicans keep turning out better idiots.
Let’s not be as cavalier with voters’ rights as Republicans. But the evidence of votes and of voters’ intent has to be plain and unambiguous for a vote to count.
This is what I don’t get…. there is no dispute over the fact that she moved the data to her personal computer. That is NOT permitted under state law.
These votes have been invalidated. The moment she moved the data off official sources, the data lost its integrity. And not it cannot be independently verified. And I will never for the life of me understand why all these smart Democratic lawyers can’t make this very simple and very compelling argument.
Even if these votes are real, they have been invalidated.
In 2004, they didn’t in Ohio make
Blackwell sent our votes out of state. In some BOE recounts a Democratic lawyer didn’t even show up to observe the recount, object and demand the lawful procedures be followed.
wait a min, so no one thinks its very strange that the number of votes found is just the right # to avoid a recount.
All the voting machines and votes should be impounded by the AG, and on recount, if it comes up 14k short of the count, someone should see real jail time. Someone like Kathy Nickolaus and Prosser. Their phone records should also be impounded.
This we all thought only happens in third world countries, well before 2,000, anyways. I guess if there was any doubt, this proves it, the U.S. is a third world country. And you watch, no recount.
Holt’s last revision, correct?
http://www.bradblog.com/Docs/HOLT_VOTERCONFIDENCE_FINAL_031809.pdf
Errrrr… no.
What was in Holt’s last revision was still the ineffective tiered percentage approach. In that last version it was 3%, 5% and 10% audits based on the machine-reported apparent victory margin.
And as has been proved repeatedly in studies that sort of fixed-size audit is a sitting target for electoral fraud.
http://www.verifiedvoting.org/downloads/SAFE-Auditing-Nov-2-Final4.pdf
Hmmm… Are you referring to Holt’s permanent establishment of the EAC… that awesome voting industry rubberstamp created by the folks responsible for 2000 and staffed by the very best the corporate-government revolving door can produce… the establishment of the EAC as a permanent electoral administrative body overriding state election officials?
Or do you mean Holt’s enshrining of corporate ownership of elections by making the oligarch’s secret vote counting software a Federally enforced right?
Remember Debra Bowen, the awesome CA Secretary of State who ordered an actual examination of CA voting machines by independent researchers? Remember the nightmares the researchers uncovered in the EVM software? Holt’s bill, while paying lip-service to academic research, would actually have crippled her efforts… and that was exactly what the corporations wanted.
See above links… Bev Harris and Black Box Voting never, ever said that “audits would not work”… she only pointed out that the audits in even that last Holt version were still too easily gamed. And studies by other groups confirmed that.
See above note about Holt enshrining corporate control of our elections under a Federal mandate. When the oligarchs have control of the software that counts the ballots then the oligarchs control the counting of the ballots.
And then there was the whole Ballot Marking Device debacle. Holt mandated the creation of a multi-billion dollar corporate giveaway… a boondoggle in the form of mandating the development and purchase of ballot marking devices for the disabled that in turn required the development of non-existent technology in a doomed attempt to enable the disabled to vote independently.
Such devices would be a worthy research goal in and of themselves but once again, just as with HAVA, the disabled were to be used to ram insecure corporate crap down everyones throat. As one of those disabled (I literally can’t see a damn thing beyond the end of my nose) I’ve gotten very tired of being used to push the oligarch’s crap.
And DREs are DREs. It has been shown in studies that DREs with “paper trails” are no more secure than the DREs themselves.
And because of Holt’s procrastination on behalf of the corporations DREs would not have been banned until 2016… leaving us still with a mess in WI this year.
Add it all up and Holt’s bill was indeed a massive corporate giveaway.
If your judgement of Bev Harris is based on misconceptions like the ones discussed above then you might want to ask a few questions about what you’ve been told. It doesn’t seem to agree very much with reality.
Holt killed his own bill by becoming a corporate tool.
Apparently he thought being a pro-technology rocket scientist trumped the knowledge and experience of election integrity advocates who were actually much more versed in the issues and problems of voting.
And like other beltway inhabitants he discounted the warnings of “mere” advocates in favor of the corporate whores whispering in his ear…