Brad DeLong muses that Ben Bernanke has changed inflation expectations without anybody knowing it:
I see no signs anywhere in the marketplace that there is any threat of rising inflation expectations. He stated that he was unwilling to undertake more stimulative policies because “it is not clear we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risks.”
But the personal consumption expenditure deflator (excluding food and energy) has not seen a 2 percent er year growth rate since late 2008: over the past four quarters it has only grown at 0.9 percent. At a 3.5 percent real G.D.P. growth rate, unemployment is still likely to be at 8.4 percent at the end of 2011 and 8.0 percent at the end of 2012 — neither of those levels of unemployment would put any upward pressure at all on wage inflation.
It thus looks like 1 percent is the new 2 percent: with current Federal Reserve policy, we are looking forward to a likely 1 percent core inflation rate for at least another year, and more likely three.
This gets confused because the Fed looks at “core” inflation, which exempts commodities like food and fuel which are more volatile. Of course, people still have to buy food and fuel, so they experience inflation. But that’s not part of the targets the Fed sets. And they’ve changed that target, magically, without telling anyone.
A higher inflation target would, according to the experts, mean more jobs and a stronger recovery. I think people would live with higher oil prices if it meant they had a job. But Bernanke won’t do that. In fact, he won’t even commit to the STATED INFLATION RATE for the country, instead playing this game where we can’t even approach that number.
And there’s a lot of blame to go around here. To quote Mike Konczal:
So the Fed is doing neither of its two jobs. Unemployment is too high, and inflation too low, so it should be doing whatever it takes to stimulate the economy. The natural question that puts pressure on Ben Bernanke is: “Are you worrying too little about unemployment? And are you worrying too much about inflation?”
But if you got all your sense of the world from the questions that were asked during the press conference, you would expect that unemployment wasn’t a major problem and crushing inflation was just around the corner [...]
Part of the problem has to be that most of the questions were asked by business journalists, who report less on the devastation that unemployment brings and more on the bond and oil markets. But part of the blame goes towards liberals, who haven’t pressured Bernanke enough on job creation. Bernanke is a Republican and ultimately he is going to be hawkish on inflation at a time when the exact opposite is needed. We need to demand clearer answers from him as to why he views protecting the financial sector as an ends instead of a means and why he’s prioritizing one part of his mandate over the other.
See also Matt Yglesias on this question. Konczal and the Roosevelt Institute put on a one-day conference yesterday called The Future of the Fed, and all of the panels are posted at the site. It’s worth watching through them – monetary policy needs to be questioned in the full light of day.



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And isn’t GDP growth coming in at much lower than 3.5%?
Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are ‘running out of money’
Ya don’t say…! How’s about reviving your former ‘Made in USA’ campaign…! *aargh*
Pardon me, but this is a fucking farce. So is this:
The fault for high unemployment lies clearly with the WH and the failure to use fiscal policy. There’s really nothing the Fed can do at this point to make a sizable impact on unemployment. There is great disagreement among economist as to whether raising the inflation target will spur employment. There is NO evidence that it will.
It really makes me want to puke to see assholes like Yglesias turning on Bernanke and blaming him for something that is clearly Barry’s fault. Bernanke is an asshole, but he is helpless.
Do you know how the Marshall Plan got a devastated post WW II Europe back on it’s feet? Enormous expenditures on infrastructure and economic stimulus without fretting about inflation. Do you know how the US got back on it’s feet after the Great Depression? See post WW II Europe. But for some reason, in 2011, those policies won;t work so let’s not even try them. Bernanke is worried about inflation for one reason: Because the enormous piles of idle cash his rich patrons are sitting on will be worth slightly less. Period. He’s bought into supply side Reaganomics just like everybody else inside the beltway and almost nobody outside it.
These people have to go. Government depends on the willingness of the people to be governed by them. It’s time for some serious coordinated passive resistance.
If food and fuel are factored into inflation whats the real inflation rate? Ben can call those prices volatile but they have to be paid a Mcdonld’s worker can’t afford to go to work if those prices keep rising. McJobs are all this economy produces.
Yep. It clocks in at a less than robust 1.8% which is even further proof that Bernanke’s “worry” about inflation is bullshit.
It will be more than slightly less. But think of it this way the rich would have to work harder to get better rates of return if we have inflation and that should stimulate the economy and cripple several companies only being held up by government handouts.
Military industrial, Farms, banks, financial companies etc the parasite economy will get a flea dip just like in the 70′s after Vietnam and the economic slowdown, crap housing market we had then. Bubble economy is repeating itself.
Yeah, I think I’ve had about enough of veal pen Matt’s “analysis”.
That depends on the inflation rate and there are no inflationary pressures. At all.
There is so much that is analytically incorrect about this statement that I wonder whether Bernanke wasn’t misquoted. If he wasn’t, then Bernanke’s mind has gone to putty since he went to the fed. The idea that a small wage rise would push up the price level and inflationary expectations at this point in time implies that the natural rate of unemployment in the United States is 10 percent. This is insane.
It’s a commitment to “austerity” in my opinion. Blergh.
Ain’t working out so well for the UK, Ben. Take another look.
I guess you could look at this in one of two ways. Either Benny doesn’t know what the Fuck he’s doing, or he knows exactly what he’s doing. The question is, who is he doing it for and who is he doing it to?
My take? He’s taking care of Wall Street and the Banksters and Butt-Fucking the middle-class. As usual.
Or Greece for that matter. All of this shared sacrifice seems to mean the lower 95% sacrificing in order to “share” with the top 5%. Blergh is right.
It’s the latter and there is no question about who he’s doing it for.
John Williams estimates that the actual inflation rate is about ten percent.
Our rich parasites our eating our seedcorn the host body they prey on we need jobs to keep society functioning Paris Hilton or Jon McCain back in the day drinking at trendy bars produces no benefit to society.
Dick Cheney getting Hal fat on government contracts to rebuild Iraq produces no benefit to society as evidenced by 10 years and Iraqi oil production is back to where it was before the war. Hal obviously is mismanaging its contract.
I’m with Sherlock Homes on this solution, because drugs are needed in this madness of crazy ben, the long lost son of uncle milton friedman.
This has been the answer for 50+ years. When fiscal policy is ruled out — because deficit fever has ushered in austerity — there is very little the Fed can do with interest rates near zero. Should Bernanke adopt a higher inflation target? Of course. Would it lower unemployment? Maybe — but it should at least be tried because there is no hint of core inflation in sight.
Has Bernanke provided trillions to the banks with little to no effect on employment? Yes. But is he to blame for the rate of unemployment? No. Can he do much about it? No.
Blaming Ben for the house on fire is like blaming a kid on the sidelines with a water can for not filling it fast enough, while the guy with the hose (Barry) who won’t turn it on plays with himself.
There will be higher food and fuel prices will create inflation no matter how much the Fed denies it.
I’m getting damned fed up with this kind of crap. There is one person who can make a difference, and isn’t doing his job here – that person is OBAMA. He continues his betrayal of hope.
Government of the banksters, by the banksters and for the banksters.
Meanwhile, savers and retirees looking for modest returns in a near-zero interest rate environment
are being slaughtered like sheep.
I’m not blaming Bernanke, nor am I going to give him kudos for acting to protect the rich at the expense of everybody else. Austerity is the problem. I thought I indicated that.
Okay. I guess I’ll go away and come back when people decide my IQ is over 75.
I know you weren’t. I was just using your comment as the take off point. Sorry I didn’t make that clear.
I’ve decided. Stay!
x2
Bernake and the other idiotic elites who got rich via DNA, and nothing else, wanted to destroy the USA!
However, mother nature is not following the plan.
A below avg. President could have got the USA on solid footing.
Obama is intentionally trying to wreck the USA economy!
Obama actions say it all!
Obama says USA broke, so let give the rich a tax cut and let us cut services for the poor.
what makes a lot of people furious with OBAMA is how he lied to get elected. No one would have voted for the OBAMA in the WH. (who knew OBAMA was Clarence THomas Cousin)
In 2008 60 million plus americans got lied to by OBAMA the Con Man!
Progressives and Liberals knew the USA needed another FDR, instead we got a HOOVER lover.
All the crap Neo-Liberals and GOPers do better create Jobs or the USA will see Social Un-rest.
Inflation is not about individual item costs increasing. It’s about the cost of money itself.
Repeat: Inflation is not an issue at present.
That is of course if Bernanke actually believes his own numbers, which I don’t think he does. I think he knows the true inflation rate is much higher than what he says it is.
Food and energy costs are excluded by the Fed and economists from core inflation because they are volatile, not because they don’t matter. Put another way, spikes are often followed by declines — averaging out over time to be at, or near, the inflation rate of other goods and services.
However, if food and energy costs remain high and increase faster than core inflation, excluding them would no longer be justified. We may, in fact, be in a period over the next few years in which this is precisely the case. Under such conditions, a measure of core inflation which excluded food and energy costs would not be justified.
You are correct!
the blood that powers the USA economy is OIL!
when OIL goes up, everything else goes up and plus increases in OIL lowers the amount of money americans have to spend on other items.
OIL is a very regressive TAX on the poor.
the USA was built on the idea of cheap oil.
when OIL becomes to expensive, you hurt the USA economy big time
how many people still like living in the suburbs, and making 1 hour commutes to their jobs?
Oil kills avg americans extra income!
Bernake should have been fired in 2008!
Bernake thinks HOOVER was a ECON guru
Bernake knows he is a complete failure
History will look at Bernake and Obama as complete MORONS
BS . . .Bernanke is not helpless. He is a piece of sh. . . . just like our President and Congress. It is all grade B theater. ” We feel for you” – “shared sacrifice” – BS – translation “we steal from you” – “we play, you pay”. They borrow to give tax breaks to the rich and fund immoral wars — then they blame Social Security and social programs. Why? Because they want to steal the Social Security trust money to give to the banksters. Bernanke, when he testified before Congress, told Congress you do not have to continue entitlements, they are at the will of Congress. Don’t you dare defend this traitor to the american people.
could have not said it better
As more and more americans realize that the true enemies of the USA live and work in DC the better we will all be.
Bernake is a grade A ass hole, just like his boss OBAMA
Yeah, here’s Bernanke testifying before Congress to advocate cutting Social Security (amongst other things):
http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/12/03/bernanke-yes-to-social-security-cuts-no-to-new-jobs-bill/
I agree with you on virtually all of your points. He is a Republican, never should have been appointed, and would destroy entitlements if he had the chance. He is also importantly to blame for collapse of the financial system. And he is quite comfortable doing little or nothing about unemployment.
Our argument extends only to what impact on unemployment the Fed can have — given that fiscal policy has been hamstrung by austerity. Sorry I didn’t make that clear. Except for my feeling that there’s really very little he can do, we pretty much agree on Bernanke.
The bottom line is 0 loves ronnie ray gunn and crazy ben comes the uncle milton. Think Shock Doctrine coming home to Amerika.
Here is what DeLong and Yglesias felt about Bernanke’s reappointment. Brad was enthusiastic and Yglesias with some reservations thought he would do a “fine job.”
Now Ben’s the villain. Right!
No, his just doing what his masters want, 0 for Main Street and $$$$$$$$$ for ws and dod vendors. It’s also what 0 wants
That’s right. Not a concern to Ben or Barry.
It’s all about the shareholders.
i don’t think the fed has the right policy tools to do the job (that would be congress and fiscal policy). let’s just have the fed set a low fixed interest rate (that they do have the policy tools for) and get them out of pretending to be in charge of our economic fortunes. fold the fed into the treasury.
what are doing letting the banksters run the fed anyway?