I really think we’re witnessing a sea change on the Afghanistan war. Not just from members of Congress who want to accelerate the drawdown or affix an endgame strategy, but from the Administration itself:
The Obama administration is seeking to use the killing of Osama bin Laden to accelerate a negotiated settlement with the Taliban and hasten the end of the Afghanistan war, according to U.S. officials involved in war policy.
Administration officials think it could now be easier for the reclusive leader of the largest Taliban faction, Mohammad Omar, to break his group’s alliance with al-Qaeda, a key U.S. requirement for any peace deal. They also think that bin Laden’s death could make peace talks a more palatable outcome for Americans and insulate President Obama from criticism that his administration would be negotiating with terrorists.
“Bin Laden’s death is the beginning of the endgame in Afghanistan,” said a senior administration official who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal policy deliberations. “It changes everything.”
I really think Pakistan plays into this. For many years now, it seems we’ve been in Afghanistan to manage Pakistan. But with bin Laden out of the way, maybe we can get Pakistan to buy in to a regional settlement that is amenable to all parties. And certainly the demonstration project of the mission on bin Laden must have top Taliban leaders looking over their shoulders.
This will not happen overnight, but it could get us to a glide path to reconciliation, peace and withdrawal. But the proof of concept here will be the planned withdrawal from Iraq. If we keep that commitment, we show the Muslim world that we have established a new direction in relation to the region, away from imperialism and toward mutual respect. We reduce the intensity from one occupation in the region, momentum that can be transferred to the other. I think where we wind up in Iraq will tell us a lot about the course in Afghanistan.
Talk is cheap, as we’ve all seen. Now it’s time to take tangible steps. If peace talks get prioritized as a result of the killing of bin Laden, it will have been a positive development.




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That sounds like a beautiful plan. Freakin miracle if it actually happens. Too many Americans have bought into government propaganda that the Taliban can be defeated.
Bin Laden’s death can provide some much needed cover for the USA to GTFO of Afghanistan. It’s more and more clear that we aren’t helping and are really pissing off the locals by blowing up their relatives. I really don’t want to read about any more dead Americans in the news. We proved our point, if there was one, now leave and save a little face.
Fuggeddaboutit. We are not leaving Afghanistan just like we are not leaving Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Libya, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy, Honduras, Colombia, Phillipines, Poland, Kosovo, Serbia, Kazahastan, Tajikistan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and the other 200 plus countries we are in.
Hillary said totally the opposite yesterday.
Opposite to leaving Afghanistan, I mean
Pelosi said they were going to “redeploy” this summer…What does that mean? Somewhere else, or bring them home? If somewhere else..where? Which is it?
Iran.
Too many Americans believe The Taliban are of any consequence to us. They are not a threat to GWOT, and engage USA only cuz we ARE there.
So Mr. Dayen, BMull, do either of you have any thoughts on WHY the elites of USA would abandon our plans in the region wrt pipelines, oil/gas, mineral reserves?
I mean, after all this time doing what we were doing (and I pray you both don’t think we were there to chase OBL or defeat Al Queda or The Taliban) in the region militarily and intel wise (black ops, drones, etc) to profiteer and such, why would you think military withdrawl is any consideration?
Iran is way too big for the amount of troops we have…there would have to be a draft, and in this economy and all….oh wait
What concerns Pakistan is removing the India presence in Afghanistan and replacing it with its own.
What concerns the U.S. is maintaining its influence in Afghanistan as a part of its South/Central Asia strategy, which includes India but not Pakistan.
What concerns the Taliban is regaining some influence in Afghanistan.
If those three concerns can be satisfied then the war is over.
Yeh, that’s something I’d REALLY like to hear more about from others.
I see no reality that dictates any withdrawls or that the elites/oligarchs will abandon dreams of empire.
They will have to be FORCED to abandon those dreams, and this admin is NO savior of we the people, much less the REST of the planet.
I eagerly await more thoughts on this subject . . .
Hey, O just got us into another war with another Muslim country without any opposition or permission whatsoever. And no planning.
I’ve always thought that if the U.S. were to take on Iran it would be after its troops (aka Iranian hostages) are gone from Iraq. It seems that will happen this year, according to SOFA, not bc U.S. wants it but bc Maliki need Sadr & Sadr sez out.
As for not enough troops, as you said, Oh wait…. First billed as bombing raids on nuke sites only, soon to be discovered that didn’t do the job….
That’s 3 dimensional chess.
O can play only 11 dimensional.
Mullah Omar “broke” his alliance with Al Qaeda in 2001.
This administration official is spouting propaganda.
I’m for withdrawing the military from Iraq, per current schedule if not sooner.
and Withdrawing from Afghanistan as per Karzai’s pointed question Monday of why we we’re there:
Our mission in Afghanistan as broken down by Bush:
1) get OBL
2) making it hard for al qaeda to hide and deny safe haven to them
3) establish Af-Pak as a place that is hostile to terrorists
We have accomplished 1) and 2) and all the locals in both Afghanistan and Pakistan say that if we were to leave that would be the greatest incentive for peace in the region…
So, I say, IMHO tell your congresscritter to get out of the region
Two middle east countries who do NOT want us to leave Iraq:
Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Whatever Lola wants…Lola gets.
next step I think,get this,
make a grand security bargain for the whole region…
let the US ‘police’ the region from the water with our NAVY, protecting the shipping lines for everyone … yes, for China, Pakistan, India, Africa, the whole gulf region, and the all important Suez Canal. This would necessitate, close relations with Egypt, with Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, keep our bas e in Bahrain for the fifth fleet and Diego Garcia in Indian Ocean.
Everything else, we get out. Offer conditional humanitarian aid in crises when the UN or allies agrees (so it happens now and then, not just when congress or UN, or our allies alone would want it — so not all the freaking time – ) but only humanitarian aid above and beyond security to keep those essential shipping lanes open for int’l trade and commerce… promoting those ohso popular American capitalistic intentions and values.
A strategy for the next century and meanwhile we can pull our troops home, slash defense budgets — we can cut our defense in half and still have more military than the rest of the world combined – and spend our money on rebuilding infrastructure and provide jobs here and health care for all and time to heal our wounded. Our Vets and service industries need all the help we can give them. And everything else that’s been falling apart for at least ten years …
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen David Dayen:
And now back to reality and for heaven’s sake, take ObamaRahma’s talk and keep enough heat on ‘im to walk the walk. I have been usin’ the heading “AND THE KILLIN’…” for years now and I’ve tried to keep connecting the wars to the issues of the economy, jobs and fascist politics. Now can we PLEASE stop wasting time on who was killed in Abbotabad and where the body is or isn’t and use our considerable energy and intelligence to keep the promise of peace alive and connected to the democracy movement both here and in the Middle East.
The fact that a pro-peace movement already exists in the congress and that public opinion has been behind getting out for at least 5 years should direct our focus and fuel our efforts goin’ into an election year in which Obama is gunna need us more’n we need him. We can remain skeptical about what Obama says and keep the pressure on for action but for God’s sake let’s not contribute any energy to the fascist lunatics who will be opposin’ peace just because Obama is doin’ it. Furthermore, if we get outta Iraq and Afghanistan completely and fill the political vacuum with indigenous Arab democracy movements, we will have enough in the treasury to fight over jobs, alternative energy and democratic politics in our OWN country.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, AND FOR GOD’S SAKE DON’T SHOOT IF THY’RE ALREADY DEAD!!
Very sanguine, David, glide path and all.
I hope you’re on track, but the best I can do at the moment is just feel some relief. Hope that lasts.
Corners are very hard to turn, and uncertain, when things are developing as fast as they are now.
Srsly? Linky please?
Persisely, perfessor!
*waves*
Threatens the elites, capitalist oligarchy and fascist profiteers who own and operate this country.
I’m all for bring em home now, eliminate our military presence abroad, and bargain/negotiate with those who have resources we need.
But it ain’t gonna happen with the system in place that owns and rules the USA.
I sure admire your faith that we the people actually exert any pressure on the system in place that owns the judiciary, executive and congressional branches of our govt. And also own the military, the MIC, and the lives and souls of we the people.
I sure admire that faith of yers Norske.
*G*
Tell me again, hoss, how we gonna overcome it all?
;-)
We’re still in Japan, Germany, Korea, etc.
hi larue :)
how do you see that? I’m aware of bits and pieces of talk here and there of some Trans-Stanian pipeline but certainly nothing in place. A deal with Russia would have to be made as well – they would say simply, ‘What’s in it for us?’ But that’s the most serious detraction from the notion I can see.
If we have security all in a ring in the region enabling trade why would the moneygrubbers find such an idea distasteful?
Isn’t a broad stability what they crave most in order to do make their deals?
DDay, this seems like a possible course of action but my optimism is tempered by my reasoning. If the ones who initially embroiled the US in these wars ever had the intention of actual withdrawal they would have done so by now because by all official government reports, Al Qaeda was a non factor in Afghanistan even before this supposed 2nd or 3rd death of OBL. The Taliban are like are the militant evangelicals over here but better organized and our attempts to build an actual grassroots counter force to that is like trying to turn Utah into a liberal state. Besides the vast mineral resources recently reported. We may withdraw military but Afghanistan is already an economic colony.
yes we are and their populations don’t like it even though, ostensibly our being there provides a form of security?
- and I’m not saying it’s real or useful, except as staging for other potential probs, but why else do we stay there but to provide just such a sort of security as I’m proposing in the waters around the mideast :)
sure does sound reasonable.
but let’s see, stability, or complete and unilateral control (ie. shotgun “diplomacy”) that will not only generate profits, ie. via stability, but with the latter, guarantees obscene levels of profit and complete control over their economy?
gee I wonder which one the soulless bastards will choose?
Citizen Larue:
Come to Wisconsin, join the tens of thousands who are workin door to door and precinct by precinct and listen to them…that’s my answer to you’re question about how we can defeat such a large and powerful and TERWABLE bully. Connect the dots Brother Larue, we don’t have a choice…the only weapon we have is direct democratic action and we don’t have that weapon if we don’t pick it up and use it.
to those who know this is all bunk, my comment is ya, of course it is.
the wars will continue.
they can just use the T word again. or just say until every T is hunted down, we will never be safe. never mind that every day we stay there, we create hundreds of Ts. self-perpetuating conflict. woohoo, never ending war.
and of course the american public, ie. those celebrating in NY as representative, will applaud and cheer. the blood lust is ripe. there is only one way to quench it. and only one.
and our actions only guarantee that more Ts will be created.
will we ever forget or forgive 911? ask the NY crowd.
will the Iraqi and Afghani people ever forgive or forget?
and thus you have the endless war. created, packaged, and sold to the american consumer like an ipod. it’s so pretty.
your words are spot on.
although I may disagree with your analysis, please accept my respect and admiration for your work. all your work.
your words.
it’s like you’re my clone. in context of course.
you never know. miracles do happen. and they may succeed. no one would be happier than you an I.
but ya, I wouldn’t bet money on it. and I would call anyone betting money on it to be a fool.
but there’s a small part of me that truly and really hopes they have a chance to succeed against the rulers of this world.
I feel your pain tambershall, share it. That’s why I strive to show another way, other possibilities than the one you describe and I fear too. I agree with Norske. We have to continue to shake people outta their fear and apathy and intransigence. Otherwise we may as well just line up for the camps or fall on our swords. That’s no way out. These pivot points in history can indeed change the direction of things, as 9-11 did for the worse. I have to work this forward to point things in a more positive direction. That’s not just me.
I know you are correct.
I spend my off times volunteering at homeless shelters.
I used to donate, but then after researching those “charities” and all the profit they make and how much they help themselves to the charity, I just can’t anymore.
in the US, even “charities” do it for the money. some deliberately use 50% of their intake for non-charity related stuff. some of the CEOs of these charities do what all CEOs do, pay themselves bonuses. and some are just racist or homophobic.
so now I just volunteer at homeless shelters. it actually helps a lot. whenever I’m there, even though the homeless and the poor have been sold out (even by the middle class), I feel much better helping those truly in need.
good luck to you. good luck to us all.
and good luck to Wisconsin and Norske.
It was snark.
right on. you too. great your doing that!
we sure all do need help sometimes
Since we obtain most of our oil from cananda and mexico, why all the saudi a$$ kissing?
Cause George W. Bush likes to hold their hands.