The latest survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for April says that employers hired 244,000 new workers over the course of the month. But the topline unemployment rate rose to 9.0%, and the employment-population ratio actually dipped to 58.4%, which is actually 0.3% lower than a year ago.
Employers are hiring, and this is the third straight month with increases over 200,000 (February was revised up to +235,000, and March to +221,000). But with so many long-term unemployed people returning to the labor force, as well as young people entering it, the pace of recovery is not consistent with large gains in the topline unemployment rate or the EPOP.
For the first time in a while, the number of long-term unemployed declined, adjusting down 283,000 to 5.8 million; this could be a good sign that long-term unemployed are finding work, or that they have been out of work more than five years and dropped off the BLS survey completely. The median duration in weeks of unemployment dropped to 20.7.
There remain a lot of discouraged workers, long-term unemployed, forced part-time workers who cannot get more hours, and the like. What’s more, the jobs being added to the economy are in lower-wage areas like retail and service-providing industries. Manufacturing jobs also increased (with factory overtime going up), while construction remained low. Private payrolls went up 268,000, which means the public sector continued its decline, dropping 24,000 jobs in April.
The jobs report is mixed – job creation is good, an increase in the unemployment rate is bad – but you can supplement it with a number of bad data points over the last week. Perhaps the popping of the oil bubble will help, as consumer spending gets diverted away from gas over time as the price falls. But that hasn’t happened yet, and in the meantime, government is asleep at the switch. Here’s Paul Krugman:
Employment has risen from its low point, but it has grown no faster than the adult population. And the plight of the unemployed continues to worsen: more than six million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, and more than four million have been jobless for more than a year.
It would be nice if someone in Washington actually cared.
It’s not as if our political class is feeling complacent. On the contrary, D.C. economic discourse is saturated with fear: fear of a debt crisis, of runaway inflation, of a disastrous plunge in the dollar. Scare stories are very much on politicians’ minds.
Yet none of these scare stories reflect anything that is actually happening, or is likely to happen. And while the threats are imaginary, fear of these imaginary threats has real consequences: an absence of any action to deal with the real crisis, the suffering now being experienced by millions of jobless Americans and their families.
The jobs report in April doesn’t really change this.
UPDATE: It is true that the rise in the unemployment rate probably reflects a technical correction, due to the fact that the rate fell appreciably in preceding months without the job numbers to back it up. Still, all that says is that the rate is probably legitimately 9.0%, which is not good.




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Great post, David. Balanced.
Well I guess it’s better than job loss but as Krugman points out, it barely keeps up with the growth in the adult population. “Good” isn’t a word I would apply to such anemic growth.
this president INSISTS on trying to create jobs from the top down, giving assets to the wealthy, in the slim hope they will hire people with that investment
he REFUSES to recognize, wealth begins from the bottom and migrates up from labor, labor does not “trickle down from wealth
however time and time again this president has demonstrated, he is indeed a trickle down economist
sad, true
“Guest Post: Memo To Bernanke: It’s Called Blowback, Baby” (Zerohedge.Com, May 6, 2011)
anyone listening to cspan1 or cspan radio? alan simpson and erskine bowles fear mongering about the “deficit” and the “need” to cut ss.
bat-shit-crazy. and bound to increase unemployment
The oil bubble may have burst, but other food commodities are up today… Arab Spring may become Global Summer. When, oh when, will speculation on food be prohibited?
Under the present and foreseeable state of aggregate demand, there is no way the unemployment rate can be brought down significantly before the next elections. How this will play out is anyone’s guess, but there is sure to be a powerful feedback. We are starting to look like Britain in the late 1920s, when serious structural problems (oversupply of coal miners, textile workers, and shipbuilders) were compounded by an overvalued exchange rate. Things didn’t improve until after Britain devalued in 1931.
This is a more meaningful statement.
The latest survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for April says that the number of employed people as a portion of the labor force increased 0.16% over the course of the month which is probably within the margin of error (given the imprecise BLS survey methods) but we don’t know what the MOE is.
244 thousand more people with employment
159 million people in labor force
Greeks are very angry over bankstas’ international psyops campaigns to convince the world there is something wrong with the Greek economy so that they can extort from their target. Dr. Kiriakos Tobras talks about his lawsuit against investment banks and derivatives dealers for their crimes against Greece (video, time point 12:36 and beyond).
Birth/Death Adjustment (which is a hypothetical number calculated using a model based on the business cycle) to NFP = +175,000. This number is adjusted in January for the previous year based on actual payroll data. Last year this adjustment overstated jobs created by over 1 million. I wish the MSM, including FDL, would stop repeating this data as if it were gospel.
good for the greeks. glad someone is focused on the people who need to be the focus of attention… and the target of a massive international fraud investigation. calling on william k. black…..
Yes. Grrrrr.
from warren mosler, Goldman excerpts from employment report:
thank you. misery loves company.
Anecdotally, the company I’m working for is looking for engineering talent and having some difficulty finding it.
I didn’t get unemployment benefits during the 43 months I had between jobs and I’ve very unclear on how the household survey reports unemployment situations like mine. I certainly never stopped looking for work.
shadows stats has the number at over 20%, and the U-6 is over 15%
Knut, you wrote:
Durden says that and more:
This tracks with the U-6.
With the birth/death adjustment at +175,000, that leaves the total jobs added (per the official stats) at 69,000, and we know that McDonald’s accounts for 62,000 of those – wow – the middle class will come roaring back in no time flat.
“McDonalds turns away more applicants than Harvard” (May 5, 2011)
Are we to assume that the 5,8000,000 Americans with No unemployment benefits, No job prospects and declining/no access to credit – are going to support President Obama’s re-election?
They are in the “No hope” category. It’s time for a PWA-like project for them, not just another tax-cut, tax-break or tax-dodge for their trickle-down masters.
If this does not cook Obama’s re-election, we are left with nothing but a decling empire with a great history, great military and great tax rate for the ubber-rich.
God help us (Obama’s trickle-down won’t).
Margaret:
Have you ever thought about trying to find a job in a gym? It might be right up your alley, given your own health transformation.
I just joined a Planet Fitness… also known as the “no judgment zone.”
Here’s a link… according to the site, they have 7 places in San Antonio.
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk weighs in on the numbers, with this as his summary:
The word “critical” is probably an understatement, IMHO.
Obama’s re-election isn’t going to be decided by them.
Focus on the POTUS is a bright shiny object, he’s never going to be the FDR we may need right now. I’m personally getting an analog to Clinton Fatigue syndrome with the constant reinforcement that Obama isn’t the Great Progressive Leader. It doesn’t engage me to be more active, and I suspect probably sends some allies running.
political change needs focus at various legislative levels. 2010 election was a lost opportunity to work on redistricting at state levels. At this point developing farm teams at County and municipal levels is probably the best hope we’ve got.
Jane has a fresh cross-post up: Miraculous Reversal: Bradley Manning’s Humane Conditions at Leavenworth
I agree – employed people as a portion of the labor force increased 0.16% is a good – and more meaningful – but it still depends on the definition of workforce.
Percentage of the adult population that is working is my preferred number.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SiPn9LT_R0o/TXGhrrgg6_I/AAAAAAAAHG8/VVByJYLkp-c/s400/Civilian%2BEmployment-Population%2BRatioPercentageEmployed30411WklyStndJCost.gif
The St. Louis Fed chart indicates a drop of 6% from the near 65% of the Clinton years.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
From the above April was an increase in the unadjusted number from 58.1 to 58.4 but the seasonally adjusted – despite the jobs gain – shows up as a drop from 58.5 to 58.4
It will be Good to see when it finally increases. It is getting harder to put the Clinton economy down, with its tough on corporate accounting approach to taxes that kept jobs in the US.
Post recession usual growth is 5 to 7 percent – the first Q was 1.8 of which 1.0 was just inventory build.
So cutting the budget which cuts jobs to the extent the money would have been spent in the US economy is the Obama agenda –
Hard to see the logic unless you are a libertarian, or a Republican, or Obama, or someone that just does not want Hillary to run in 2012 as she might point the above out.
Still amazed that OilyBumbler can get away with 10% unemployment for 2 and half years. He just doesn’t give a shit about it. Amazing. As a kid, I remember that this was political suicide. But no one is holding OilyBummer accountable. Unbelievable.
Rather supports the Stockman take on the budget – “flimflam and swindle.” And his description of the appropriation committees – “cesspools of deceit.”
with a Dow in its own world rally:
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?page=1
(at 9:33 California time, 5/6/2011, the day after
commemoration of the inexplicable defeat, by persons believing
in themselves, of a vastly superior Napoleonic force–)
(virtually all Dow component members up sharply, a couple modestly
down exceptions)
supposedly because of a perception of renewed dollar value retention.
Unfortunately, 3 years into support of a mortgage Ponzi scheme that
took down a world has left the U.S. middle class permanently damaged, its members’ prospects for return on investment where agencies are similarly controlled by large corporation gatekeepers, looking more like a fool’s
wish.
EverNewEcoN advises the progressive element of the Democratic Party to
select a slate offering an honest (like Ron Paul’s claim) answer, but where
it is understood that the government is not the culprit but the essential rulekeeper, enforcer of laws, all of them being all that is needed:
do not commit bribery
From the Decl of Indep:
You have rights: you are sadly expected to insist on their being realized
You’ve a rt to happiness: you are sadly expected to insist on that
being respected even if others don’t like you.
(Decl of Indep.: Goodie gumshoes for you, tough shxx for the
disturbed.)
http://sites.google.com/site/evernewecon
Geraldine Ferraro was right about Obama. She took a lot of heat for it at the time and had to resign from Clinton’s campaign, but people should remember that she called it right.
Just a reminder that this BLS Report is an “Employment Situation Summary” and not a “jobs report.”
If a person is working three part-time jobs then that’s a one. If that person quits the part-time waitress job and an unemployed person picks it up then that’s a plus one, even though the number of jobs stayed the same.
There are all sorts of problems with the BLS report that make it nearly meaningless. “Labor statistics” it ain’t, and quoting its exact numbers as having deep meaning is wrong.
I have posted before on the way these numbers start with robo-calls from the Census Bureau followed by finessing the numbers in the BLS including adjustments for this and that.
But comparing employment to population omits consideration of people who can’t work, don’t want to work and don’t need to work, doesn’t it?
Yes – there are people who can’t work, don’t want to work and don’t need to work – and there is population age distribution changes that change what portion of the population you might expect to be working.
But I’ve “found” that it is the best indicator, with or without “seasonal adjustment”, because the definitions are so clean – granted “working” can mean very different situations, so trends into lower pay jobs are not caught.
I agree with you on the BLS “survey”. Those folks are good mathematicians working with the best they can collect – but after the first few years of reading the papers I concluded much is about 5th decimal accuracy on a number with a plus or minus 10% interval. I still do not understand the refusal to tie the IRS payroll tapes that are required 2/28 for prior end of year into the BLS system directly (prove to real data is always nice – and use for adjustment directly rather than as a curve fitting change) rather than via side glance in the “birth/death” numbers – and let us not discuss “birth/death” logic !!! – it always upsets me! :-) Did not previously care as it was a minor item in the Clinton years – but Bush/Cheney did have fun with it!
My point also.
“But comparing employment to population omits consideration of people who can’t work, don’t want to work and don’t need to work, doesn’t it?”
But by tracking that over time you see trends based on data that hasn’t been monkeyed around with.
Somewhere I saw employment compared to people ages 25-55, more or less, which would eliminate many (not all) students and retired. Does anybody use that ratio?
No. It’s legitimately much higher, as many fdl readers have commented.