My response to this San Stein story about the fast-growing Hispanic demographic reality that will imperil the GOP is that it’s a story, but maybe not as big as this makes it out to be.
On May 26, the Census released what an official at the bureau described as “the latest, most up to date data on the Hispanic population in the United States.” The numbers, culled from its 2010 survey, tell a remarkable — albeit anticipated — story: The Hispanic population is growing at a rate much faster than any other demographic.
“The new census data affirms that one of the great stories of the 21st century is the changing majority of America from a majority white country to a majority minority country,” said Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of NDN, a Democratic-leaning think tank that has focused heavily on Hispanic issues. “From a national political standpoint it’s a huge development.”
Currently, 50.5 million Hispanics live in the United States (roughly 16 percent of its 308.7 million population), a significant increase from the 35.3 million Hispanics in the country in 2000. The 15.2 million difference accounts for more than half of U.S. population growth during that same time period.
This growth is particularly acute in the South and Midwest, in addition to more established areas like the Southwest. It’s only a matter of time before this becomes a factor in elections.
But Democrats would have to earn any benefit from these demographic shifts. This will be a fickle electorate and a difficult one to get to the polls for the near future. Republicans are clearly doing what they can to alienate these voters, and maybe that will be enough to motivate them. But that’s not a given forever. By 2016, Republicans could run a Hispanic-friendly (Jeb Bush) or even a Hispanic (Marco Rubio) candidate for President. That “huge weapon” for Democrats comes from the same demographic that gave George W. Bush over 40% in 2000 and 2004. It’s just not a given, especially if Democrats overcompensate on near-term issues like border and worksite enforcement. In addition, kitchen-table issues like the economy will still drive a lot of Hispanic voters, as well as social issues where they mirror the views of conservative Catholics. Hispanics could easily decide that both parties are equally inattentive to their needs.
I would pay close watch to the skirmish between Rubio and the Tea party on immigration as a leading indicator. If the xenophobes still rule the Republican Party, they will miss out on this huge demographic opportunity. That doesn’t mean Democrats will capitalize, but it means Republicans won’t.




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AZ’s immigration laws alone make me think twice about driving through that state never mind living there and the economic boycott of AZ I think shows our anger.
Jeb can speak spanish all he wants his Mexican wife however will have to stand against Glen Beck to get our votes so does Jeb want our votes or does he want the votes of the Minute Men and the White Voters who believe Obama is a secret Muslim, not born in America you know the new GOP code words for racism.
Jeb can only get our votes by pissing them off.
Rubio has it even worse he is brown I don’t see any Birther ever voting for him. Why Birtherism is just GOP Code for Racism.
There is another reason that the growth of the Hispanic population, especially in the South (outside of Texas) is not as big a story as Sam Stein thinks. And that has to do with the age distribution and naturalization status. The grow in the population will not be a significant factor for a decade or two because the Hispanic population has a younger median age than non-Hispanics. And even legally resident Hispanics–recent immigrants — still are not yet fully naturalized and registerable as voters. The state voter photo ID bills (the key problem is you must have and existing photo ID to get a voter photo ID) that states have recently passed will slow the impact of the demographic shifts, buying Republicans time to mend fences over their immigration bigotry to appeal to non-Hispanic voters. There will also be the effect of diverting immigration to states that do not have photo ID laws.
In the South, Republicans are more likely to lose from having threatened to send grandma home from the nursing home by cutting Medicaid than because of demographic changes. That is, unless Heath Shulerism gives them an out.
“Hispanics could easily decide that both parties are equally inattentive to their needs.”
Yes. Easily because immigrants, regardless of their origin, are not politically ignorant like native Americans.
“and the White Voters”..Last time I checked “Hispanics” were Caucasian..”Hispanic” is an “Ethnic Group”, not a “Race”, and the word “Hispanic” is used only in the USA.
The correct term would be “White non-hispanic voters”
Man, its already that time of year in an election cycle? It is the time of year that the electorate needs to be socially stratified by the U.S. media and eventually one named as a “key voting block” that will be be needed to win the up coming election.
The “burgeoning Hispanic vote” has always been a favorite go to article with the press, I remember back in 1992, 96, 2000, 04, and in 08 how this group was key in winning the election and keeping whichever party relevant, always citing the census numbers.
My favorite is when the press decides on a new block and decides to give them catchy names such as, “soccer moms, nascar dads, security moms…”
What a charade this has all become.
Progressives, just like status quo corporate Democrats and Repugs ignore the demographic group that if brought into the Progressive fold would immediately change the dynamics and priorities of both parties – Latinos (yeah, yeah I now they’re not monolithic but neither are Progressives). They are perfectly positioned to control the electoral results in several key states (more than Progressives) and isn’t that what we want? We don’t have to reinvent the wheel to change the world and we don’t need a messianic leader to start a movement, you just need a divine message and method to make it happen. To view how Progressives could build a coalition with Latinos go to mestizoblog.com (http://www.mestizoblog.com) and read “Trends, Trifurcation, Tribalism & Technology.” Some of the data is dated but you’ll get fresh perspectives on where and how minority groups have successfully coalesced to make a difference and how a Latino and Progressive coalition would have an immediate impact.
Permit me to shsre some first-hand experience, since I live this stuff every day.
First, I’ll start with the “dicho” and which is “Gatiando despues de andar”. Translated, means, “Crawling after having learned to walk” simply means that the enthusiasm gap is large and ever-increasing in the Chicano’s lack of affection for Obama and Biden. As such, the presumptive “corporate” Democrat is now anchored, given Obama’s promise to address comprehensive immigration reform, and which follows the lack of Jobs Creation across America, either in the private sector or in the public sector, i.e. OJT, the Manpower Act or Comprehensive Employment and Training Act. Consequently, Obama doesn’t “read” history. Or perhaps, Obama and Biden, like Bush and Cheney, will create their own history.
Secondly, Chicanos and the existing Chicano leadership, and especially at the local level, are waiting patiently for the oncoming years. Take, for example, here in Arizona, the under 17 years of age cohort and which equals the Hispanic 50% of this cohort, will begin voting in their first presidential election, and which will be a boon for Democrats since starting next year, 50,000 Chicanos will be added to the voter registration rolls. Hence, ten years, and ARizona will find itself in the midst of a half-million additional voters and adds to the dilemma already facing the GOP, and that’s their “Bashing the Latinos” Program, will come to an end, otherwise, Chicanos will call them out for what they are “actualized” and to be either bigots or racists, or both.
Consequently, if the Progressives” are fast learners, Progressives will be leading the charge in voter registration, but with a singular attention for insuring that “military veterans” are the spear point in this Registration Movement. And if you’re familiar with the history of the Civil Rights Movement among the Spanish-speaking and after WWII, it was the military veterans who provided the leadership and carried the daily burden. And within this Spanish-speaking community, this “reality” has not gone forgotten. Moreover, Latino-oriented miilitary vets have the capacity to “reach out” to non-Latino-oriented military vets, even those these military vets tend to be center-right-oriented. Thus, the “connect” among the Brothers and Sisters of Shared Experiences, does exist.
Thirdly, patience and a tad of self-restraint is required, and that’s where Sam Stein “get’s it wrong”. The Construct of Native American/Chicano, Hispanic/Latino, is still years in coming, and Obama and Biden will not benefit any more than they did in 2008. In short, Hispanics understand well that Obama and Biden need Independents far more than they need Hispanics. In contrast and at the local level, Democrats need Hispanics.
Jaango
Historical overview here–see the bulleted paragraphs.
Side-by-side comparisons of definitions 1970-1990 Census cycles are here. The entire chapter is quite informative.
Do remember that many lawsuits were filed over the definitions, leading to continued attempts to derive ones that were acceptable.
Planning for services for a specific community begins with having good population data. GIven the difficulties with the definitions, particularly for Hispanics, and the attempts made to collect better data, numbers that resulted tended to raise more questions than they answered. I.e., it is challenging.
Funny you can be African and Hispanic or Indian and Hispanic or even Asian and Hispanic F(ujimoto was President of Peru ) I believe and not White at all. The correct term is wrong Hispanic refers to are you from a country where people speak Spanish or Portuguese and are probably from South of the Border Filipinos are an obvious exception.
The “burgeoning Hispanic vote” has always been a favorite go to article with the press, I remember back in 1992, 96, 2000, 04, and in 08 how this group was key in winning the election and keeping whichever party relevant, always citing the census numbers.
Obama does not win the Presidency without us coming out to vote for him like we did last time. He needs African Americans, Women, Gay, and Lefty Votes to be as motivated to vote as they were last time.
These swing voting blocks all came out in force last time or have you forgotten just how amazing it was for America to elect an African American?
Or put it another way can Obama win with just White voters and him getting the same number of African Americans, Women, Gay, and Lefty Votes as Kerry got Assuming Ohio was not stolen?
Gore lost Florida, Kerry Ohio due to vote fraud without Us and African Americans, Women, Gay, and Lefty Votes to counter act GOP vote fraud Obama can’t win.
Obama could investigate GOP voter fraud and try and stop the GOP from not letting us vote but he did not do that in the Wisconsin Supreme Court case where 7,000 votes were *cough* “found ” the next day.