Marc Ambinder says that the drawdown of troops in Afghanistan set for next month will be meager at best. Gen. Petraeus doesn’t really want to send any troops home, and there’s no real indication that the President does, either. This is despite the fact that many assessments appear to show the US and NATO forces just running on a treadmill:
Assessing progress is complicated. As National Journal’s Yochi Dreazen reported, 2011 may turn out to be the deadliest year on record for Americans in the war. Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who sees classified and unclassified metrics on the capability of Taliban forces, doesn’t seem to be sanguine in his latest report. While coalition troops have killed record numbers of Taliban fighters, discovered large weapons caches, and meaningfully enhanced both security and civil governance in certain parts of the country, the Taliban and allied forces like the Haqqani network in the Paktika province, remain potent, destabilizing forces. The insurgency has not expanded, in Cordesman’s assessment, but neither has it been seriously degraded.
In April, Petraeus’s staff concluded that the International Security Assistance Force “still does not fully understand the regenerative capacity of the insurgency.”
In two-plus years, all we have to show for the escalation in Afghanistan is a slightly better picture in “parts of Kandahar and Helmand provinces.” The war in eastern Afghanistan has barely even begun. We’ve created a war economy in the country that is completely unsustainable, focused on training forces that have no chance of being paid over the long term. The central government is little more than a kleptocracy. Al Qaeda is not a serious presence in the country and is being used to justify a failing nation-building effort.
That’s why this turn of events is so crucial. The House is the restive bunch, normally, with the Senate being the saucer that cools the cup. So to see 27 members call for “sizeable and sustained reductions” represents the biggest challenge to executive war powers perhaps since the Vietnam era.
A letter to the president, obtained by the Financial Times, had been signed by 24 senators on Tuesday night and was expected to gather more support on Wednesday.
“We urge you to follow through on the pledge you made to the American people to begin the redeployment of US forces from Afghanistan this summer, and to do so in a manner that is sizeable and sustained, and includes combat troops as well as logistical and support forces,” it said.
It had been signed by 21 Democrats, independent Bernie Sanders and Republicans Mike Lee and Rand Paul.
Since press time, three more Senators have signed on, and they are big ones: Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), second in command in the Senate leadership Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and head of the DSCC Patty Murray (D-WA). Dick Durbin’s a co-signee as well. Members of the House leadership are part of this effort.
Support for the war is this close to collapsing. We already saw 204 votes for an accelerated withdrawal in the House. Now there are at least 27 in the Senate. When the announcement of a trivial drawdown is made, there will be a “revolt,” in the words of Rep. John Garamendi.
You can see that in the new aggressiveness by John Boehner on a separate front, using the War Powers Act with respect to Libya.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) tells President Barack Obama that he and his administration will be in violation of the War Powers Resolution unless by Sunday he receives authorization from Congress for military operations in Libya — or ends them.
Says Boehner’s office: “With only five days until the 90-day mark for U.S. military operations in Libya, the Speaker is seeking a clear explanation of the legal standing under the War Powers Resolution by which the administration believes it has the authority to continue operations after Sunday, June 19, 2011.”
Just a week or so ago, Boehner said that the War Powers Act was satisfied with respect to Libya. He’s changing his tune, I gather, in reaction to pressure from his base – a base that increasingly wants to end the imbalance of power between the executive and legislative branches on matters of war. The political dynamic has legitimately changed. The President can react or stand still.






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“The President can react or stand still.”
Barack “President Warbucks” Obama will do both.
He will play opossum.
And the good times will continue to roll in Afghanistan …
The public will continue to grow “disenchanted” with the “direction” in which “things” are going …
The political kabuki will continue in its usual way … keeping us all on the edge of our seats, biting our fingernails … or not … the “or not” being most likely … although it is fair to say that “other” feelings regarding the “astute” political class will continue to grow.
The people who are “Big Enough To Do Whatever They Want To” WANT ( and possibly, need) the warz to continue.
Ergo: The warz will continue.
All of them.
Including that one in Afghanistan.
Basically, “no change” as fundamental “policy” will, universally, continue.
Except for the worse.
When the warz and the worse have fully merged …
A sign will be placed on the door of the White House.
The sign will read: “To be continued …”
With a small, handwritten addition: “Looking forward …”
And so, let us continue to …
DW
I vote for stand still. It’s what he does best – don’t want to be disruptive, doncha know?
And over in Yemen, the drones are ready to roll.
CIA plans drone strike campaign in Yemen
The CIA campaign of targeted killings against Al Qaeda militants will augment drone attacks by U.S. special operations forces, which also conduct airstrikes and raids. The campaign is to be patterned after the effort in Pakistan, officials say.
LINK.
The US has come to love that killing…a 10 year romp. Wonder if this is the US that Michelle is proud of for the first time….
Ok but is this vote just for cover in the upcoming elections? After the elections will the votes be found to continue both wars?
Obama has a majority of voters who want out of both wars. He could win the election for the Dems if he did this.
His political advisers I am sure know that Nixon ran and won for President on Peace with honor.
I guess Obama is getting very well paid to be a one term President any bets after he leaves he becomes the new CEO of Hal or KBR?
The Left can’t afford to support Obama anymore or we risk getting tarred with Obama’s support for the wars.
More money for wars means less money to create jobs in America! More money for wars means higher taxes! More money for wars means more cuts to medicare and Social Security than even Ryan projects in his budget!
I am all for Drones if they were used against the Present government. Oh wait Drones could not get Ossama for 10 years Navy seals did if we send Drones then Al Qaeda is safe .
Civilians however won’t be and bombing civilians means more Al Qaeda there is a reason why despite all the Al Qaeda we kill that they can keep replacing lost troops.
Every civilian we kill has friends and relatives. How to Lose Wars with the World’s Biggest and Best Military should be a book the Lake puts out.
All we need to do is gather up old posts and comments. A best seller could fund the Lake for awhile.:)
“The central government is little more than a kleptocracy”.
The one in Kabul or the one in DC?
Both.
Branch Office and Head Office.
thank you very much for this post.
That is $uch a great idea….Collected Contemporary Commentary….I bet we have some good editors around here….
Hey, where are your protests? If we had a Republican President in office, I am sure there would be protesters out in droves with their offensive “burnings in effigy” and obnoxious signs. Where are the radical left-wing groups like International A.N.S.W.E.R. (that led the protests against liberating Iraq), United for Peace and Justice (that led the anti-Bush protests in New York), the DC Anti-War Network (DAWN) and local MoveOn.org chapters? Where are the marches, rallies and “die-ins”?
Could we be witnessing hypocrisy???????????
Ah yes, the “Pakistani Pattern” a true watershed “invention” along the pathway to the overwhelming success and influence experienced and enjoyed by what Eisenhower termed the “Military, Industrial, Congressional Complex”.
It may be very honestly said that the MIC Complex has never, EVER, had it so good. As well, suppliers to the patriotic men and women who serve, most nobly, the principles upon which this nation was founded, those suppliers are enjoying great profitability, from BP, who is major supplier to our brave troops and the equally brave and patriotic Contractors, to those very same Contractors, without whose dedicated assistance none of our many successes would have been possible, and on to those great Corporations which build the tools of democracy, and not only do these Corporations build the arsenal of freedom, but they build it the best and most efficient ways possible, always with an eye to thrift and labor-saving innovation.
Let us not forget the profound importance of Congress in our current time of expansion, especially in the context of the larger war on terror which it is our sacred duty to wage endlessly and remorselessly.
Members of Congress are doing well also, but it is because of the immense good which Congress does, even, at times, deliberately doing nothing because that is what the times require …
Especially in another endless war, the war on deficits.
Make no mistake, the men and women in the halls of Congress are just as brave as the men and women in the trenches … everywhere in the world where America leads the way toward freedom and justice for all.
You might think it strange that one who appreciates the controlled, surgical precision of drones, whether in surveillence, control, or combat conditions would not extoll their virtues above all other forms, ground troops, sea and air ships, long and short-range missles and so on …
However there are limits to the President’s endurance, especially with the many other functions he must command, considering that he must always be very careful to do nothing which would upset markets and countries and people.
Frankly, the President gets to unwind a little bit in the “sitation?” room (some claim he put the question-mark in that title himself). The President doesn’t really relax because things can get a little tense, adrenalin-wise, of course, but it appears to allow him to focus on something that is very important to him. Considering all the weight the man must carry, and carry alone, that must count for something.
Well, gotta go, more drones to send to ****.
(The foregoing snark is dedicated to the entertainment porpoises whom I have unconscionably been remiss in appropriately appreciating of late. Yet, it is true that they no longer laugh at the antics of land-locked featherless bipeds the way they once did. Instead, they look down their bottle-noses [well "up" actually, but the impression is the same] at silly old me and their smile is rigid and none too animated it seems …)
Thank you, fatster, for your many links and delightful/profound insights and sharings … when I come across them, your links always get clicked.
It’s been a very much appreciated education.
DW
There have been *many* large anti-war protests over the two years that Obama has been office. Too bad that the corporate owned media doesn’t bother to “televise” them.
I concur that many traditional “Democratic” voters have gotten lazy and/or complacent with Obama putatively at the “helm,” and I disagree with their complacency and compliance.
However, while the US corporate-owned media will go to extreme lengths to “cover” almost *any* so-called “Tea Party rally,” they will never give much, if any, coverage to various types of rallies held by those of leftwing persuasions, including recent pro-Union rallies in support of those in WI, as well as a number of reasonably large anti-War rallies over the past few years.
Just bc you haven’t seen these rallies does NOT mean that they’re not happening… FYI. Just so’s ya know. What you see on your tv is almost never fair, balanced, accurate, much less complete.
As always spot on, thanks.
Oh, DWB, you’ve outdone yourself with this one. Bravo!
(And thnx so much for your kind words. ***blush***)
I disagree with your assessment of the reason for Boehner’s letter to Obama.
His actions have all been cover for Obama.
Kucinich and Jones are going to file a lawsuit against Obama.
Republicans will be jumping on ending Libyan action because the Rebels haven’t guaranteed that the bill for the bombing of Gadaffi will be paid out of future Libyan funds.. Dana Rohrabacher hit them up for cash right before he hit up the Iraqis. It’s also why the US hasn’t recognized them, at least in part.
Agressiveness? Well blow me over with a dandelion seed.
I think you’re also misreading what they voted on last week. Obama was to give the house an extensive report detailing the libyan mission, goals, reasons, justifications, etc.. at which time Boehner would try to pretend that was enough to satisfy the war powers resolution, or perhaps at that time congress would vote on it they if didn’t agree. That was Boehners bill.
Kucinch’s bill didn’t pass, but that still doesn’t give authorization. It’s obvious that Kucinch and his posse aren’t going to roll over and pretend that the President has authority, or that congress even has to take action to stop it. It’s still and illegal war.
“Hope and Change” not as great as advertised.
That’s an absolutely critical point. I will not vote for guns over butter. Oops. I forgot. They don’t need my vote. Well, somebody must need my vote. It’s available.
Brad Sherman pulls a funny. It’s not like money isn’t fungible.
House passes another Libya rebuke of Obama
Obama apparently thinks that if he doesn’t put boots on the ground or troops into combat, he’s “technically” not at war.
Early on in the Libya campaign one of our jets were shot down. We’re committed, so I guess we need to figure out where the line is. He reminds me of a dog that wants to get on the couch, one foot at a time. As long as one foot is off, he’s still following the rules.
Libya Mission Does Not Violate War Powers Act, White House Tells Congress
See, look at Obama using that bully pulpit when he wants to. :)
The War Powers Act doesn’t supersede the Constitution, and in fact we weren’t attacked so it may not even apply to aggressive wars of choice.
Thank you Rep Kucinich!
Maybe we should send her some keepsakes of her husbands handiwork- some dead baby postcards.
Kucinch’s press release
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