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Daily Kos did some polling of three of the recall elections in Wisconsin, and the numbers look fairly good for Democrats.
SD-32:
Jennifer Shilling (D): 56
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±2.3%)
SD-18:
Jessica King (D): 50
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±2.9%)
SD-10:
Shelly Moore (D): 45
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±2.8%)
The numbers bear a striking resemblance to preliminary polling, also done by Daily Kos, back in March, before signatures were even filed. In those polls, Dan Kapanke trailed a generic Dem 55-41, Hopper trailed 49-44, and Harsdorf led 48-44. So there really hasn’t been much movement, and all of it within the margin of error.
If that’s the case, then the election to watch is Luther Olsen in SD-14. In that preliminary polling, he trailed a generic Dem by 49-47. Rob Cowles in SD-2 also was very close, just 45-43 in favor of Cowles in that March polling. If the other races stayed in line with that early polling, Democrats would pick up three seats and take back the state Senate in Wisconsin.
But it’s somewhat early, and the polls (other than the Kapanke race) are pretty close. David Nir attributes the trail in the Harsdorf race to some outside expenditures from right-wing groups:
Finally, teacher and activist Shelly Moore is taking on Sen. Sheila Harsdorf, whom she trails by five. Moore was the subject of an early attack ad by the Club for Growth, which had been airing for a week before we went into the field. Fortunately, the labor umbrella group We Are Wisconsin fired back with a “compare-and-contrast” spot hitting Harsdorf late last week, which was probably too recent to have an effect on our poll. So the fact that the contest is still so close despite a weeklong barrage against Moore suggests that once the We Are Wisconsin ad begins to penetrate, the race could tighten further. In other words, it’s definitely within reach.
Now we know why We Are Wisconsin picked that race to launch their first ad.
Democrats are going to be outspent. The Club for Growth, Crossroads GPS and even the Chamber of Commerce can be expected to play here. But so far, at least, that hasn’t moved the numbers dramatically. If Wisconsin Democrats have a good enough plan to get out the vote and can capitalize on an intensity gap, they are well-positioned to win back the state Senate. But it should be close.
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I don’t know much about the people running on the D side in WI. Will Moore be a better choice than Harsdorf, or will she be an r in d clothes? If she really will be better, then the people in her district would be foolish not to elect her. If the state level repugs keep control of the state, it will slide down the tubes like MI and OH and others that are being sold off to the lowest bidder.
When are the elections?
Just the fact that two of these polls have the Democrat leading by only 3% points in one poll, and trailing in another points out just how absolutely STUPID Americans are. I mean, how much clearer can the GOP tell you through their policies they don’t give a damn about you and your kids. Yet the moronic GOP base still has trouble voting against their ideology, even though they know it’s in their best interest to do so. I’ve said this before and I’ll say this again, the GOP base has a masichistic quality to it. They love getting their asses kicked by their elected politicians and loving it. It’s either that, or they’re the stupidest people on the planet. What the Hell!!!!
Did they find the 20,000 ‘misplaced’ R votes yet?
After the R’s redistrict the state and pass the voter ID laws, the D’s will have to poll 20 points better in order to just squeak by and win.
As I keep pointing out: to get to an “average intelligence” half of the people must be of below average intelligence. Intellectuals on the left keep trying to appeal to their reason. They do not have any reason. You need to bait them or beat them. The Republicans do both. The progressive movement needs to create campaigns that appeal to stupid folks: “Gee, you’re pretty, you should give me all of your money!” “You sir, are a fine strapping Amerikin, you are obviously very smart! You should give me all of your money, and God will love you”. Or as the Republican agents did in Burlington, WI when gathering recall votes against Democrats, “I’m buying shots for anyone who will sign this petition!” The patriotic citizens sold their pensions and minimal wages, for a shot of booze.
We need to learn how to appeal to DUMB!
Should have put that in there. There are primary elections in these races on July 12, with general elections August 9.
I’m glad about this, but my initial reaction to your headline was deepdarkdepression (!)
Leading in a recall ballot is, um, well, ok I guess. One of those “Yes” means “No” thingies. Lets hope for some fine campaigning and fine tuning in re ballot language overencumbrances.
sign me paranoid to the end of times.
There is now little doubt that if the voters in Wisconsin do not expel these anti-people Republicans it will be the result of extreme STUPIDITY. HOW ON EARTH CAN ANY PEOPLE THERE NOT KNOW WHICH PARTY WORKS AGAINST THEIR INTERESTS ALL OF THE TIME? WHERE HAVE THEY BEEN FOR THE PAST———ETERNITIES?
WISCONSIN MUST SHOW THE NATION THE true face of the Republican / Teabagger Party. There cannot be that degree of IGNORANCE AND SELF-LOATHING IN WISCONSIN TO RE-ELECT ANY REPUBLICANS AFTER WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN DOING. I HOPE THAT THESE VOTERS WILL SUPPORT THEIR OWN BEST INTERESTS NOW AFTER THE FIASCO THEY ALLOWED IN 2010.