So Ezra Klein has responded to my criticism of him yesterday about the Constitutional option for the debt limit, whereby the Obama Administration simply orders bills rung up by Congress to be paid.
Klein believes that we shouldn’t open the can of worms of a Constitutional battle that would have to play out in the courts. He believes – and said yesterday that they debt limit negotiations have failed, but he oddly tempers that despair in arguing to let the process play out:
There’s every reason to believe that the markets expect, and have even priced in, a typical political tussle over the debt ceiling. Frustrating as it may be, what we’re seeing right now is politics-as-usual, and markets tend to take a benign view of Washington’s constant dramas. In 1995, Congress and the president gridlocked over not just the debt ceiling, but also the appropriations bills, yet bond rates barely budged. Now, if the standoff hadn’t eventually been resolved, the market would’ve panicked. But it was resolved. And that further taught the market to ignore these periodic eruptions of Beltway hysteria. When the time comes, the American government always pays its debts.
But that confidence is, I suspect, largely dependent on this debt-ceiling fight looking pretty much like past debt-ceiling fights. So long as bond traders are calling their political fixers and hearing reassuring things about how they’ve seen this before and this is just how Washington works and there’s no way that Boehner and Obama won’t come to a deal before Social Security checks stop going out, they’ll give us time to work it out. What we don’t want them to do is call their political fixers and, after a long silence, hear, “No. I’ve never seen anything this before. I don’t know how this is going to play out.”
This is a very reassuring take compared to… Ezra Klein yesterday. There, he was saying that the parties are “trying to position themselves politically to survive the consequences of their failure,” and that “we’re very likely to get to the point where we have to stop funding certain government services, which could mean as little as delaying payments to military contractors and hospitals or as much as halting Social Security checks.” Given the news today from S&P that they would view any default on even unaffected Treasuries with a significant downgrade, the likely scenario that Klein outlines is very likely to lead to higher borrowing costs. The only way out of that is a reading of the Constitution that allows the government to pay its debts.
But there’s another reason to explore this option (at the very least as something you can threaten, virtually the only leverage the Administration has left). I’m not only worried about the problem of the debt limit. I’m worried about the solution. Near-term fiscal contraction is going to kill an already sick economy. If anything will produce market uncertainty, it’s a double-dip recession, which is entirely possible in an extreme scenario where there’s a lot of deficit reduction at the federal level to match all of it at the state level. No less than Bill Clinton explains this:
“If they [the Republicans] said, look, that now is not the time for big tax increases to harm the recovery, they would be right,” Clinton told ABC News in an exclusive interview at the Clinton Global Initiative America conference in Chicago. “But it’s also right to say that now’s not the time for big spending cuts.
“What I’d like to see them do is agree on the outlines of a 10-year plan and agree not to start either the revenue hikes or the spending cuts until we’ve got this recovery underway,” Clinton added. “The confidence that the Republicans say would be given to investors with a budget plan, they’d get whether we started this year or next year or the year after that, for that matter.”
For the first time, the former president is focusing his Clinton Global Initiative on creating jobs here in the United States. He suggested waiting for the recovery to take hold before pushing spending cuts and tax increases will make the issues clearer.
“We’ve got to get the jobs back in this economy again,” Clinton said. “The more people we get going back to work, the more businesses we start, that’ll bring up the revenue flow, and it will cut down on the expenses. Then, we’ll see what the real dimensions of our problem are.”
That’s exactly right. It’s why the best course of action on the deficit remains doing nothing, letting the Bush tax cuts expire and accomplishing the entire $4 trillion in deficit reduction that everyone is on about. And this can be part of the President’s message when he announces the strategy to ignore the debt limit. “Lest the markets think that this is a pullback from seriously looking at our fiscal obligations, I will make a vow today: I will veto any budget bill that comes to my desk which does not achieve what is assumed in the CBO baseline, which brings the deficit into primary balance.” At that point you let Congress sort it out, with a clear delineation of responsibilities: Congress sets the spending priorities, the executive pays the bills they ring up.
See, I view two sides to this: the consequences of disaster, and the consequences of the resolution. In the “wait for a solution” scenario, there are near-term consequences in allowing some kind of default event, and there are near-term consequences in the solution. In the “constitutional option” scenario, there are no near-term consequences as long as the bills get paid, and there are no near-term consequences in the solution, because deficit reduction gets put off until the end of 2012. I just think that’s far more responsible given the state of the economy.
Besides, Republicans don’t think there are any consequences to letting the debt limit expire. Let’s prove them right!
UPDATE: And Matt Yglesias adds another factor. Regardless of the deal made on the debt limit, the very idea of making a deal where policy items are conceded on this routine procedure has negative implications for the future.




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The debt limit thing is a ruse. A distraction to keep us confused and divided while they steal our pensions and health care.
Obama can do anything he wants to do. The law is simply not an obstacle to a unitary executive.
Regardless, if this question has to be settled by the Supreme Court, we don’t have 10 years to put our creditors on hold until the question is settled.
First of all, unless the other side somehow manages an injunction all debt would be immediately paid. And there’s substantial question as to whether anyone has standing to sue, based on recent case law. Then there’s the question of whether SCOTUS would involve themselves in a political question. And I assume that even with an injunction, because of the nature of the case it would be fast-tracked.
Today was the last scheduled QE2 buy. In the absence of the Fed monetizing the debt we have to rely on actual buyers. Either the debt ceiling farce or pausing QE would probably come out OK, but I am concerned about both at the same time.
If President Lawn-chair was serious about negotiating, he would announce NOW that he was planning to exercise the constitutional option while negotiations proceed. That would soothe the markets and remove even more negotiating power from the Republicans.
He won’t. Folding in 3 … 2 … 1.
FWIW, I’m skeptical we’ll have anything like a real ‘jobs’ recovery until we stop bowing and scraping to ‘capital’. For 30 years, ‘capital’ has been seen as the key to job creation, and that is true for certain sectors – especially manufacturing. But it is *not* true for all sectors.
As long as ‘capital gains’ continue to get a free ride, the most profitable ‘jobs’ will involve sending money from one bank to another, one credit account to another, one ‘capital fund’ to another.
Without unlocking the hold that ‘capital gains’ has on the tax structure, the whole ‘jobs conversation’ strikes me as mostly blather.
Meanwhile, in Beltway Media news, it appears that Mark Halperin is now off MSNBC’s invitee list, after calling Obama ‘a dick’ on HoJoe’s show this a.m. Since Halperin seems to think trying to call b.s. on the GOP’s theatrics constitutes ‘being a dick’, I don’t see it as a great loss.
Meanwhile, until we change the tax code, I don’t really see the economic structures supporting job creation. They currently favor capital concentration, and as long as they continue to favor capital it’s going to be hard to have enough ‘jobs’.
Of course, the DC Beltway conversation is pretty much limited to whether or not Obama is ‘a dick’. Good times. Good times…
Didn’t Dubbya get elected because the SCOTUS stuck their beaks in a political question?
It also seems like injunctions in other federal cases get made with a fair amount of frequency, but I suppose I haven’t actually done the analysis to say with certitude (my new favorite word).
I did like your idea of just blowing the Retardican’s off and letting the Tax Cuts expire. Sounds like maybe the only good way out at this point.
In the mean time, the Fed can just pay our bonds off out of it’s own pocket with a few strokes of the keyboard.
Nobody will ever apologize to the Professional Lefties who were saying no at the time to The One’s genius legislative maneuvers in the Bush/Obama Tax Cut Deal, Baucus/Lieberman/Tauzin/Obama Health Care Deal, etc. People like Ezra Klein were treating them like candy from the sky and calling people who objected petulant children, while we were saying all along they were pieces of shit that had the framing 100% wrong and set up worse “deals” later on.
I think some people owe other people an apology. I don’t expect it will ever be forthcoming from the crew that defended the pieces of shit.
The Constitutional argument IS part of the process. But I wouldn’t expect Ezra to understand that
Ezra Klein should stick to being wrong about health care.
Obama should give a simple speech. Effective next week, the US government will stop paying Republicans and anyone who has given money to the republican party because Congress will not raise the debt limit.
Obama will actually cut social security, medicare, medicaid and other new deal programs for the poor because he is such a wimp.
“Then there’s the question of whether SCOTUS would involve themselves in a political question”
When is SCOTUS not involved in political questions?
All of our asses are about the be spanked red by Adam Smith’s invisible hand while the elite are brought to orgasm by Adam Smith’s free hand.
Yup the geeks on the bench took a big BM. Just like Justice Taney, a slave-owner, holding human beings and America hostage? No different today as back then. It’s about time people realize this!
Maybe the Republicants will manumise us?
Sure is and the law is tweaked, to satisfy the political/economic interests of a slave owner or a corporation, first while “pissing” on life and liberty! What the fuck is “pursuit of happiness” in the absence of the prior two? Leveraged servitude, enabled under the color of law. Yup Justice Roberts, your a Dickhead!
David, if you can find it, Olbermann’s interview of Jonathon Turley yesterday was very good regarding this issue.
Yep. +1
This is a bit like the original Star Trek episode where two planets engaged in war for centuries, but “civilized” it by making everything but the deaths virtual. The deaths were real, but voluntary and self-inflicted. Some civilization. It’s also like the non-filibuster filibuster, which allows legislation to be stopped in its tracks without taking to the floor like Mr. Smith and holding it live, real time, with voices, bodies, visuals, commitments.
If the GOP wants to play chicken and put the govt in default, let it be on its head. But let’s default and put the blame where it belongs. The GOP has taken a routine legislative act – extending the debt limit – and turned into a fulcrum that it hopes will lever them back into the White House and the “Democrats” out of it. If the GOP has the stomach to put the USG and its worldwide debt into default, so be it.
When the basic running of a government or company is held hostage to private political squabbles, and ordinary people everywhere are made to suffer for the egos of a few hundred men in Washington, it’s time for the citizenry to take the gloves off and fire those unrestrained egos and put people in office willing to run the bloody government, not abuse it like a sick spouse.
I would not count on it. The “Rethugs” have forgotten who they were? Who it was that manumitted the slaves. Basic dementia.
It is called hostage taking.
It is not a cloaked hand. It is a fist designed to ****!
I have it here with several other opinions pro & con whether this is a good idea or even feasible
No, he’ll do all that because he is strong with a spine enabling him to resist his base, betray them and serve his true masters, the corporations.
spot on
Turley on Keith Olbermann discussing the constitutional option on the debt ceiling.
Bruce, Turley doesn’t know anything about coin seigniorage. If he did he would know that the debt ceiling doesn’t require default. If it did, the 14th amendment would apply, but again it doesn’t. See: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/06/30/990018/-The-Debt-Ceiling-Is-Not-Unconstitutional,-Right-Now!?via=history