I think it’s worth briefly following the train of thought of Felix Salmon and asking how in the hell we got to a place where trillions in deficit reduction, with trillions more potentially offered in a extra-legislative process, represents the leftward pole of this debate:
The lion’s share of the blame here belongs with the Republicans in general, the House Republicans in particular, and the Tea Party caucus within the House Republicans most of all. But it’s not like these people’s existence or intransigence was any great secret. And so the White House tactics over the course of the past few months look dangerously naive [...]
The budget debate, of course, sets near-term taxation and spending. So seeking to make a virtue out of necessity, Treasury entered negotiations over the debt ceiling to do something longer-term: to put in place a decade-long “fiscal straitjacket” which would constrain future Democratic and Republican administrations alike. That would address the Krugman point, and help to cement — rather than weaken — America’s triple-A credit rating.
As things turned out, of course, Treasury’s bright idea backfired catastrophically. Far from putting the US on a course of long-term fiscal prudence, it put the country on a log raft with no paddle, careening straight towards a deathly waterfall. In hindsight, attempting to engage the House Republicans on long-term fiscal issues was a silly idea — these are people who think you can raise revenues by cutting taxes. A fiscal straitjacket, necessarily, involves some mechanism for raising taxes; since that was always going to be anathema to the Republicans, there was no point even trying to construct one.
Naive is one word you can use, but I don’t think it’s quite right. Somebody had to raise the flag on Treasury attempting a long-term deficit solution – in the middle of a jobs crisis – and that responsibility lies with the President. Elizabeth Drew has an article for the New York Review of Books which claims that the President wanted to change his image to a purveyor of fiscal rectitude in time for the 2012 election. He was playing for the votes of a handful of swing voters and independents in key battleground states rather than doing anything of value for the country. And in the end, what he actually put on the table and proposed would have done something far from valuable – it would have actively hurt millions, caught in the wake of this monomaniacal pursuit of a deal. Jonathan Cohn has the full rundown, but Paul Krugman picks out a portion, the effort to raise the Medicare eligibility age.
Let’s recall how the health care debate went. Progressive reformers, myself included, would very much have preferred a simple single-payer system — Medicare for all. And there’s a reason: Medicare has lower costs than private insurance, and it’s also a much better vehicle for cost control. Also, the simplicity — if you’re a citizen, you’re covered — makes it much less likely that people will fall through the cracks.
Most of us were willing, however, to accept the Rube Goldberg scheme actually passed — in which community rating, a mandate, and subsidies are combined to more or less simulate the effects of single-payer — as much better than nothing. If political reality dictated that health care be directed through private insurance companies, even though this made no sense in policy terms, well, that was a price we were willing to pay.
But it’s quite something else to take people who are currently being covered by a rational single-payer system, and force them back into the inefficient, parasitic world of private insurance. That’s terrible. And it’s also politically stupid: if you think for a minute that Republicans wouldn’t turn right around and run ads about how Obama is taking away your Medicare, you’ve been living under a rock.
Krugman expanded on this idea in his column today.
You have Republicans like Bruce Bartlett calling Obama the Democratic version of Richard Nixon, who was similarly off the reservation of his own party base’s beliefs. You have neoclassical economists like Jeffrey Sachs rhetorically turning over all the furniture and lashing out at the corruption of the Democratic Party, calling for an independent Presidential effort.
I don’t think the President is a weak negotiator. He wants different things from the people who elected him. And people are beginning to see that. There was no reason to yoke deficit reduction to the debt limit, building a doomsday device that could blow up in the country’s face. Obama had to make that decision, or at least accede to the Republican request. He wanted a grand bargain to “take deficits off the table” and burnish his image. He was willing to compromise plenty to do that, enough so it confused the entire notion of what was a compromise and what was a belief.
I’ll let Digby have the last word:
The president seems to see these things as abstractions: the poor give something and the rich give something and that will make it even-steven and everyone will share equally in the pain. That might sound fine if you’re talking to children, but adults surely know that the wealthy will feel no real pain from being asked to give up a slightly higher percentage of the wealth that’s being taxed now at historically low rates. And the elderly and disabled and children who will be sacrificing their benefits in “exchange” for that can’t work. How are they supposed to make up the difference? (This is where the catfood metaphor comes from.)
Look, I get that he thinks it would be great to tick off a bunch of items on the list of problems and say they were all solved through a a “balanced approach.” That’s his brand now and it works for him. But there are reasons this is so tough — the two parties have different constituencies to serve and different ideas of what’s necessary to solve them — or at least they used to. And even more importantly, it’s obvious that the Republicans are more right wing than they ever have been and are less likely to agree to anything reasonable than they ever have been before. So the idea that this, of all times, is the right time to do a Grand Bargain is the original error, as we can see by the current negotiations. His vision doesn’t fit the time or the circumstances and he hasn’t changed course [...]
And sadly, even if the deal never materializes, by putting these drastic cuts on the table they are going to become the centrist and conservative baseline going forward. After all, “even the liberal Democrat Barack Obama thought this needed to be done.” I had not heard anything about raising the age of Medicare eligibility before this debate and now it’s everywhere, pushed by the White House and by the health care technocrats who think that everyone should be thrilled to get into the untested Rube Goldberg health care program as soon as they can buy their way in.(If they can afford it.)
In that sense, the past six months will be irreparably damaging even if it all somehow, by some miracle, works out.




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I’ve been wondering if anyone would suggest this. It has seemed a good comparison to me.
In the sense that Nixon, in some areas, was willing to take his party to the left, yes, I agree that Obama is similar to Nixon.
As in “When the president does it, it is not illegal.”
Of course, Obama is pretty far to the right of Nixon, except when it comes to executive power and rights. Obama will take as many powers, rights, and prerogatives as he can, right along with Bush/Cheney.
There may be another way in which Obama will be like Nixon: Nixon destroyed the Republican Party image for years. He is still considered the exemplar of the overweening president who does illegal things against his own people.
But that fits Obama as well, given his belief that he can declare a US citizen to be assassinated on only his say so.
Plus, Obama will probably destroy the Democratic Party image. Indeed, he may well destroy the actual party. In which case he would outdo Nixon.
And be as “transformational” as his hero, St. Ronnie.
I use to think Obama could destroy the Dem Party, not going to happen, because Obama and the phony Dems in DC are the only Dems talking to Morons aka “GOPers.”
the Gov. Walker effect is taking hold outside of DC. Gov. Walker does not hold back, there is a Civil War going on, and lines are being drawn.
Gov. Walker and his kind hate everything about the USA, that helps the poor, middle class, etc.
On the otherside you have everyone else.
Obama and the Dems in DC do not fit anywhere?
The USA will be in a deeper depression come April 2012, and the Dems in DC will be telling the USA they need to cut Social Security, Medicare, Medicade, that is going go over very well in a nation full of anger and rage.
Obama is doing 1 thing very, very, well he is helping the current Dems in DC find the un-employment line.
I expect the blowback toward Dems to be nuclear by April 2012 or before, just because the USA economy will be in the tank.
To lead one must have some followers? Obama and the Dems in DC are just taking a walk, their base is gone to the front lines!
memo to DC, Gov. Walker and other GOP leaders are building battle trenches, the talking is over.
Putting raising the Medicare eligibility age on the table was the last straw.
It is possible for both things to be true.
No good negotiator comes out over and over again and says “I will never X” — only to eat X the next day. “I will not extend the Bush tax cuts,” he said for all the world to hear at the G20 in Korea — then came back and did just that. He won’t take a temporary deal — and then he will. It’s happened to Obama over and over again, and everybody he negotiates against knows it.
Yes I agree that he probably wanted pretty close to what the Republicans wanted in terms of deal points, but much more than that he wanted a “win,” a victory. McConnell’s (and Boehner’s) goal was to make sure he didn’t get one. It was a stupid, childish and selfish and tremendously shortsighted goal, but just based on history alone, I would bet they will get their way with a 2 tranch deal.
Obama has never figured out that the only way a President wins in the long run is to be on the side of the American people. If Obama was on Mt. Rushmore, he’d be a crevasse.
“It is a trick among the dishonest to offer sacrifices that are not needed, or not possible, to avoid making those that are required.”-
Ivan Goncharov
That’s very funny. :)
What a good piece of explanation rooted in knowledge of the disastrous impact on the poor, ill, and elderly. What a group to go after….must feel really manly, I guess. I hope this vision of those to be effected will be writ large for all to see the cruelty and short-sidedness at work.
Whoever we thought Obama was going to be has gone missing; he is so exposed. That alone may really help those who oppose from the Progressive side.
I agree. I’m guessing we will see competing narratives tonight surrounding the impact of a one-tranch vs. two-tranch solution. Obama will claim that the two-tranch deal will cause a credit downgrade and rising interest rates, etc. Boehner will claim that Obama’s argument is sheer political expediency and irresponsibility — just to get past the 2012 election. Plus, Boehner will claim that a two-tranch deal is the only way to ensure the markets and ratings agencies that the full cuts will be eventually made.
Just a guess.
It’s not Original Sin – it’s Unpardonable Sin to validate and cement the last 30 years of GOP propaganda and destroy any type of liberal brand whatsoever for purely personal political gain.
He’s taken us from Keynes to Dickensian in 30 months, something which no Republican could ever do as President.
The work against all this madness basically has to start from scratch, and I for one am pissed beyond all measure that so much has been thrown away, by so few, in so short a time.
because progressives bought into the (false) deficit reduction nonsense and the (conservative) “fiscal responsibility” frame.
i thought cheney was good (in an evil genius kind of way), but damn the establishment D party leaders are better. they actually got progressives to do their dirty work for them.
remember this one? iraq. 9-11. iraq. 9-11. iraq. 9-11. iraq. 9-11. iraq. 9-11.
how many people ended up thinking iraq had something to do with 9-11?
this time we heard: progressive deficit reduction. progressive deficit reduction. progressive deficit reduction. progressive deficit reduction. progressive deficit reduction.
how many people, including progressives, think deficits are bad, there is a long term deficit problem or that taxes need to be increased instead of cut?
…… i’ve gotta make this one a diary.
Spot on.
While Nixon actually had a few good accomplishments during his term in office, and ended in shame, I’m no longer certain that Obama will even get the former, but he sure will get the later.
selise ~ you are absolutely right. No less than Gloria Borger (*snort*) on CNN was saying this late this afternoon. When all this started, people didn’t even know what the deficit was. NOW, Americans think they know and they are worried about it -because they have been told to be worried- so now SOMETHING has to be done. What a horrendous mess. What a bunch of political spin hacking assholes.
He was playing for the votes of a handful of swing voters and independents in key battleground states rather than doing anything of value for the country.
Idiots. I think Karl Rove proved pretty convincingly that an unpopular president’s only route to re-election lies energizing your base instead of wasting your time trying to convince swing voters and independents that you don’t suck.
I have always been a fan of “Occam’s Razor” or the principle of choosing the simplest explanation as the one most likely to be true.
In this case I want to suggest that the problem is not with Obama’s poor ability to negotiate, which would be a mystery for a smart, educated man, surrounded by advisers. I think that he only seems to be negotiating poorly because he is not really negotiating at all.
I think he is working with the other side to produce the conclusions that they both want.
I think that it is all play acting. Is there a better, simpler explanation for all of this farce?
Worse than Hoover
Even Sachs gets it wrong (from David’s link above):
Really sad.
playing for the votes of a handful of swing voters and independents in key battleground states rather than doing anything of value for the country.
Those words ought to be etched on the tombstone of the Democratic Party if and when it finally dies.
So in less than 100 years, the Democratic party has gone from ” a chicken in every pot” to “eat your peas and like it.”
Maybe that the government spent all the SS money years ago and cant ever pay it back?
Yes, “shovel ready projects”
The only “shovel ready projects” are those budgeted and planned. There are no “shovel ready projects” waiting for funds because they need funds to become shovel ready.
Only an ignorant moron would go with the “shovel ready” meme.
Wow, per usual, Digby is her muted, bland old self, describing the obvious. She’s not willing to admit that Obama is a right winger and the entire Democratic Party is right wing. I don’t understand why people need to pay homage to her, because she’s been wrong about so many things. David, I learn more from your reportage in one day than in five years at Digby’s blog.
here’s a bit of something better… back from november: James K. Galbraith: We Need to Make an Honorable Fight… the Fate of the Entire Country is at Stake
Yeah, and the Congressional Democrats have been doing that for a long time now too. They always have just enough votes, big sigh and they are so very sorry, to lose every vote that matters.
If he’s doing all this deficit-cutting, bipartisan crap to appeal to people for re-election in 2012 he’s beyond stupid. Nobody is going to care about this in November 2012, they’re going to care about the miserable economy this kind of austerity makes even worse.
Here is a dismissal from 450 years ago:
“You have sat too long for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you.”
Applicable today.
Both things, likely, are true, Jane.
Obama simply failed to assume the proper position soon enough for the pack to recognise him as a fellow carnivore, being a poor “negotiator”.
Obama most desperately wants a “win” and many people are still reeling from the last one, hopey, changey has morphed, for a sustantial number of human beings, into an uncertain and frightening sense of impending doom … because Obama, clearly, has an agenda that does not include the well-being of most.
And not one of those many people would challenge your bet. Certainly not I.
DW
In the name of God, go!
“Out! Damned spot!!”
DW
FWIW, my guess is that David never misses reading Digby. But just a guess.
Plus, he fundamentally misunderstands what Americans want in a President. They want a tough guy. They want a give ‘em hell Harry or a tear ddown that wall Reagan. They don’t want a wimp. Americans will be clueless about what’s in the deal but they know a wimp when they see one.
With Cenk and Elizabeth Drew, I get the sense that some people have had enough. Whether this materilizes into anything, who the hell knows? But regardless of policy, Obama is coming off as an incompetent, taking us down into the gutter with his turbo-charged neoliberalism. You can also sense the wheels are coming off of the wagon, slow motion. No one seems to be in charge.
Chris on Hardball was all wound up tonight saying that Bill Clinton needs to be brought back as Secretary of the Treasury because he knows how to talk to Americans about the economy. In other words, Obama can’t. Obama is going to have to worry about more than progressives.
These days, Obama can’t give comprehensible directions from the Loop to the Water Tower. What happened to Mr. Eloquence from the 2008 primaries?
Selise –
That’s a fabulous article.
Jane, David, Bill — Somebody should get that article cross-posted here as its own post.
Obama will give a speech in a few minutes and a response will be given and tribalism will run amok for a few more days. In a few months the American electorate will dump this episode down the memory hole and a new battle will be waged for the unwashed masses to be entertained with.
“Our people were taken back to a culture of dependence. Our unity was destroyed, as tribalism was entrenched. The virtues of hard work were displaced, as national coffers were opened wide for looters.”
~ Mwai Kinaki
Bang !
jesus David, the whole piece is such very, very good writing
Someone really needs to ask Obama how his anti-stimulus stance now jibes with his pro-stimulus stance previously…does he not think he’ll cost the US jobs with the economic modeling coming out of his own administration being wrong or does Obama think the economy is in good enough shape that it can afford to have an anti-stimulus.
If they can’t pay back the AAA Treasury bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund, then they can’t pay back any of them. Maybe it would be best just to admit the truth that we really are in default, and just shut the business down. The USA is over just like the Soviet Union, and who won the Cold War then? Nobody. Nobody won. We destroyed each other. I think it is always best to face reality and speak the truth. Communism and Capitalism are both dead. Jefferson Davis said that on the tombstone of the Confederacy the epitaph should be carved: “Died of an Ideal”
Check this out (from TPM):
obamas goal from day 1 was to destroy the democratic party.
do you all remember the numbers? and even then we were told nothing can get passed.
well, the whole idea was to lose the house to make the case that obama had to bargain with the republicans in order to get things done.
you see there is no room in america for a liberal/progressive politician.
the democrats had to be destroyed.
as far as what obama is doing it is very simple to understand.
obama is a far right politician and wants to destroy SS and medicare more then the republicans.
all that money to be used for wars.
if you dont understand this you dont understand obama.
Yes, but Obama made one miscalculation of epic proportions. He believed Republicans wanted to destroy social security, Medicare and Medicaid. They do, but not as much as they want to destroy him.
Can you imagine Obama’s shock when the Republicans rejected his final offer, the one that even Harry Reid couldn’t stomach.
BeachPopulist, your request is my command. :)
just received permission to cross post. will put it up in a diary tonight
We sure as hell better get a primary opponent for Obama. Read the Elizabeth Drew article. She points out that within days of Hillary dropping out of the race in 2008 he lost his “populist” persona. Probably the greatest political deception in modern history. In 2007 he had received more Wall Street money than any other candidate, including Repubs ! The guy is a wall street sleeper cell. Read the quotes from a democratic senator, who uses the word “disgust” when referring to Obama. Everybody not in the top 1% better get their checkbooks out and find a real candidate to primary Obama, or get your kids and yourself out of this country.
The word opportunist comes to mind.
“I don’t think the President is a weak negotiator. He wants different things from the people who elected him. And people are beginning to see that.”
With the grace of God I so hope you’re right. Unless the left wakes the hell up and realize the comparisons of Obama being to the right of Nixon is not just some pun, but the actual fact of the matter.
LOL – but sadly
There are folks on FDL that will tell you that Hillary would be worse, can’t trust her progressive populist policies as announced in 2008 because she is not anti-business – DLC and all that.
Besides Obama had a better family photo for some.
Obama went to the George Costanza school of negotiating.
Obama and the policy course his “amygdala trust” have charted since, well, being elected has guaranteed that he’s un-re-electable.
ObamCo would love to “bait & switch” blame for his impending loss – and the loss of the Senate along with more than a billion dollars “black-holed” in the process – from his own door-step to that of the “never satisfied” DFHs. In the end, blame matters not when the GOP controls all 3 branches of government.
What do you imagine America to become with McConnell, Boehner or Cantor, Roberts and Perry as the leaders heading each branch or sub-division?
If your visions don’t terrify you, your blocking!
Here’s the bottom-line. With the current “balance of power” between the House, Senate and President, it is all too obvious that exactly no new legislation intended to improve the nation’s “jobs creation engine” will see the light of day before the 2012 generals. As such, the unemployment rate will – at best – remain north of 9.0%, with the U6 measure indicating that 17% or more Americans are un- or under-employed. However, the jobs engine has been stalled for 3 months now. Stalled means that new jobs creation trails population growth let alone acting as an enticement to workforce drop-outs to return to the application lines.
Unless the President, with the agreement of the Congress, passes legislation that instantly spurs the creation of 225,000 new jobs per month, every month starting now until the election, the unemployment rate will rise. If, for any one of several reasons, disaffected workers return to the labor pool, the economy will need to generate between 300k and 400k new jobs every month just to keep the unemployment rate at the unacceptably high 9.2%. The chance of an “up-side surprise”, meaning fewer jobs created leading to higher unemployment such as 9.5% 9.8% or higher. Calculated Risk has composed a table that tells the simple, depressing reality of jobs and the lack thereof in the US. Adding any of the debt ceiling hostage agreement proposals and their policy effects on the economy and its easy to see how unemployment could near or even top 10% by election day.
Considering that no President in the modern era has been reelected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%, it’s essentially axiomatic that Obama’s doomed himself to be the Democratic Party’s version of H.W. Bush – “read my lips, no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security”.
So, if you’re not thinking primary Obama, I hope you’re thinking “is my passport up-to-date”.