US companies are hoarding some cash in preparation for the possibility that no debt limit deal is reached by next Tuesday, as well as lining up additional sources of financing in case the credit markets suffer. But executives are going way too far by blaming the debt limit crisis for things that were in place well before this was thought to be an issue.
A new sort of risk to growth is emerging, not from the kind of economic forces that led to the recent recession but from elected officials’ inability to agree on how to deal with them. This angst in the executive suite is reflected in this month’s uptick in lobbying by business groups eager to see a deal on the federal debt ceiling, in surveys showing falling confidence among business leaders — and, in the American heartland, by the deepening frustrations of corporate chiefs [...]
The executives are hostile to President Obama and his agenda and say higher taxes would damage their business prospects and make them less inclined to invest and hire. But in contrast to congressional Republicans’ claims that any tax increases would stop job creation in its tracks, many executives say they could tolerate somewhat higher taxes if they were part of a broader plan that offered clarity on the nation’s future policies, particularly one heavy on spending cuts.
“What are the rules of the game going to be in the long term?” said Lyle Heidemann, chief executive of the 5,000-store hardware chain True Value. “What our retailers would like to have is consistency and predictability. We can handle decisions we don’t agree with, but that’s easier than not knowing what the decision is going to be.”
This is the “uncertainty” dodge, and while it wouldn’t be hard to look at Washington and assume dysfunction, it doesn’t account for the fact that businesses haven’t been hiring at a robust rate for nearly four years now. That cannot possibly be chalked up to uncertainty, especially when every survey shows that this is about demand for sales.
And what they know is that sales will only go down in the event of a deficit deal. The initial CBO reports on the Boehner and Reid plans showed minimal deficit reduction in the immediate term, but that will probably be one of the tweaks that Speaker Boehner makes to grab more support. As I’ve been saying for as long as I can remember, near-term spending cuts will materially harm the economy, and should be avoided at all costs. I fear a deal as much as I fear default, in this respect.
“The problem is that aggregate demand is very weak from consumers and businesses. If government cuts spending in the near term, raises taxes in the near term, that would be a drag on growth,” says Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody’s Analytics. He distinguishes “good” and “bad” deficit reduction: The good kind would reduce government spending when the economy is stronger, which would reduce long-term interest rates and free up more money for the private sector to spend and invest. By contrast, the bad kind of deficit reduction “would focus on cutting spending right now, while the economy is still weak.”
And of course, the struggles of the British economy show us the blueprint for how austerity will play out.
This is what I mean when I say that there are no good solutions left. The politicians have abandoned common sense and all known economic theory. The corporate class may be angry about “uncertainty,” but the certain sting of austerity should cure them of that.



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This ‘uncertainty’ meme has filtered down to the street Republicans who gather at the water cooler in my office. They sound like a bunch of fucking Daleks. Where is the meme box these people go to to get their rhetorical crap? Oh. And what happened to the bucaneering, risk taking capitalists, who were not afraid to go out on a limb to pursue their job creating ends? Maybe they were a phoney baloney meme, too. (Yuh think?)
Of course it’s about uncertainty. The executives are uncertain when their customers will return with cash to spend (aka: Demand).
So are we all. Uncertainty is an abstraction. The question is Uncertain about what, specifically.
Duh.
Posted in the previous thread but even more relevant here:
They are already blowing up the economy. We just kind of ran out of work today and there’s nothing in the pipe. Everybody is holding their breath and sitting on their money, even more so than before. The Beltway folks are just fucking cluelessly playing, (badly), while the USS Shipofstate sinks.
Maybe I’ve missed them, but I haven’t seen high Keynesian multipliers used to show the impact of trillions of dollars of spending cuts on GDP. I know CBO has put out some fairly low (but still troubling) estimates.
But when Barry was calling for “going BIG” with BOTH spending cuts AND tax increases, I didn’t hear Obamabots saying, “well, with a multiplier of 1.8, that would mean an increase in unemployment of — holy shit — 4%.”
Speaking of which, some from Barry’s freshwater school of economics feel that real wages (and employment) haven’t fallen far enough yet. Maybe unemployment has to go to 15% before it can fall again. /s
To be fair the CEO’s have been sitting on $2 trillion dollars long before the Debt Crisis became a big deal. This is just their latest excuse for not spending money.
Obama is just going to have to accept that as Long as an African American is President those CEO’s won’t create jobs in America.
But they will once a Republican is elected.
Snark you got a link?
Rather, common sense no longer functions as good sense, and economic theory is no longer of any use.
We might start with a radical, World War II-style remodeling of our economy to cope with abrupt climate change, and we might create economic theories for the transition to a post-capitalist world. We might do such things, that is, if we cared about the future of humanity. Instead, we lean on common sense and economic theory as crutches only to discover that the politicians have abandoned even those, because some investors who pull the strings have some paranoia or other about asset values.
Sure. From CliffsNotes:
Link
Wingnuts get all their stupid ideas from Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Glen Beck, Neil Boortz, et al.
Rush Limbaugh vetted John Boner’s speech, ferchrissakes.
They are mindless drones.
Meanwhile, Corporations must pursue emerging markets because they crashed the American one. Meanwhile, they continue to seek another bubble to exploit in America, b/c that is how they make money. Massive Pump and Dump Wall Street Scams.
If they are to sell products, they must look to emerging markets. Obama is helping them with so called Free Trade deals with Korea, etc.
These people have no shame. They should really look in the mirror. It is they who blew up the economy and now they are worried? Don’t make me laugh. These people think that they keep milking the cow without feeding it? They move the jobs to offshore, and then they complain that sales are off? If official unemployment rate is 9.4%, you can be sure that it is much higher, but the politicians are suppressing the real numbers for fear that they may not be able to pass another trade deal. Our government is probably our biggest enemy, since it has become the tool of the wealthy, who are obviously worried that if the truth gets out, things will get hot. I just wish that instead of being in a slow death spiral the country would crash all at once. It would also crash a few of our oligarchs. Actually, did anyone wonder why during the Great Depression bankers were jumping out the windows, and in This Depression they are not? I guess they have lost all sense of shame, they lost conscience. Unless all the windows on Wall Street are now impossible to open. I really wish it would rain a few bodies on Wall Street. It could really cleanse the country.
Barry and Timmeh gave them $16 trillion.
Uncertain? My Aunt Fanny! The Bush#t tax cuts date to 2001/2003.
WHERE ARE THE JOBS?
To rework a crude old question, why would they buy the cow, when they already get the milk?
“…We can handle decisions we don’t agree with,…”
no they can’t, and that is a very large part of why the nation is declining economically while growing economically. when corporations expect a decision they don’t agree with, they hire lobbyist and provide financial support for right-wing congress-vultures.
what corporations want is what any spoiled child wants: anything they demand and no supervision or restraints.
we have in american today a generation of spoiled-child corporate executives who do not appear to have any sense at all that their corporation’s fate is bound up with the fate of the nation’s economy,
specifically, and unhappily for these spoiled-child executives, with the economic well-being or lack thereof of the middle-middle class and lower ses’s.
why? because, as the remarkable and deplorable income distribution “curve” in today’s america reflects, that is where virtually all of the true value/ace hardware customers “live”.
as for a general electric, they exist and thrive as corporate ticks on the body politic.
when are these overpaid corporate overlords going to wake up to the fact that their corporation’s well-being is tied up with the well-being of millions of people who will never earn their unmerited millions?
Keynesian multipliers are so 2009 /s
no you haven’t seen “high keynesian multipliers used”, but you and i and the rest of the nation should have seen them used.
when you have basic macroeconomic economic theory as good as we have today, there is no excuse for the ignorant, foolish, prejudiced, ideological debate we have had (and that the europeans have had) for the last 4 yrs (since july, ’97).
the national income accounts identities should never be trifled with, but that is just what this nation is doing.
for that you can thank the media,
you can thank an economic ideology that is more religion than science, i.e., the free market/chicago school class of economists,
and you can thank political leaders ignorant of, or fearful of using, the sound basic macro-economic theory developed over the last hundred years.
kind of reminds me of
- global warming
- evolution
- lead and benzene
- vaccination.
“ship of fools” comes to mind.
alas i, my family and friends, and tens of millions of my fellow americans are on that ship too.
From your article: “I Ruined the Economy and All I Got Were These Lousy Tax Cuts”
This suggests that Moody’s is well aware of the effect of spending cuts on the economy. So, are they intentionally trying to bring about major job losses with the threat of downgrading the U.S. debt?
If we do not get the Big Budget Deal there will be yet more unthinkable tragedies. I do not know how to say this, except tell the truth. Country Clubs are threatened. A congress kritter is warning us this could happen if we do not get the banksters fiscal house in ordnung. It is a disaster waiting to happen.
See, lowering the Debt Ceiling is a bad idea because you will hit your head on it…
But the kritter does not support the Boner Plan The Boner is golfing BFF with Obama. No way will the odd couple, Boner and the President, allow Country Clubs to be held hostage to the Big Deal.
Thanks for calling out business ownership (corporate not small biz I assume) for the bullshit they worship and help spin.
The sad fact is that without consumers with jobs to buy shit, and without the ONLY thing that will improve this sitch (govt. investment in creating jobs and paychecks which generate consumer spending and TAXES!) all this kabuki is sinking us deeper n deeper.
The escalation of the depression like conditions is amazing to me, despite the fact I’ve watched it all since ’04 here in CA.
Bad reckoning on the part of the elites I believe . . . course, it’s world wide in its effort this global hacking of all classes other than the elites.
Can’t last . . . history shows us that.
The oligarchs own The Beltway . . . it’s a global effort.
And again, so sorry to hear of this on your end.
I’m still lookin for work . . . it’s brutal.
Man those are some stupid and mean fuckers them folks.
Nice hit.
;-)
Keep it simple sister, the elites own it all, they are killing us for our middle class wealth and existence, and the outcome in the end is gonna kill them as much as us.
*G*
“Lies! All damned lies!”
*G*
I can’t phookin believe anyone buys that shit, other than the elites who push it like cheap smack on a street corner . . . whoops, overdose, one less worker!
Please, enough of “what should be” theory and posits.
The reality discounts any wishes any of us would hold to, so, the solutions or options for us all do NOT lie in theory or wishlists.
What SHOULD be is not what IS . . . no need to lecture of what should be, that’s been as old as oh, Reagan, for most of us proggys.
Hell, he was our governor for 8 years and destroyed CA then, before he set the stage to destroy the nation.
There are no IF’s . . . only what is, and it’s ugly.
Theory n soapbox academics won’t fight this shit . . .
Harumph.
Yes.
Global privatization, enacted by the elites on a global basis, in place for hundreds of years . . . you new here?
Country clubs are threatened . . .
I give up, it was funny . . . *G*
Even them fucks won’t hire me . . . . well, maybe as a greeter.
;-)
…“What are the rules of the game going to be in the long term?” said Lyle Heidemann, chief executive of the 5,000-store hardware chain True Value. “What our retailers would like to have is consistency and predictability. We can handle decisions we don’t agree with, but that’s easier than not knowing what the decision is going to be.”…
“consistency and predictability”
and
“We can handle decisions we don’t agree with…”.
oh yes, america’s large corp execs are SUCH good citizens, SO willing to consider needs other than their own for-profit needs,
“just tell us what the rules are.”
viz
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/28/health/28institute.html
larue -
you can be clever and funny – in your two-thumbed style.
you can also be blathering and foolish, as you are here.
And you fail to address my criticism of your lack of big view.
You pose only conjecture and wishitude . . . and using grand language for the theory behind yer wishin n hopin.
You pose no reality at hand . . . you only posit theoretically.
Theory is of no value to our predicament . . . I can get that from any number of sources including centrists, status quoist’s and orgs such as PDA, NPA and more who wish to glom onto Mz, Hamsher’s readership for their own gain but offer NOTHING of a reality of actually taking place.
Thanks, glad we had this chat.
Oh please! Now that the shit is starting to hit the fan these assholes who bribed congress want people to feel sorry for them. Did they just realize they have lost control of their monster? I wwould feel sorry for them but in all honesty, I hope they lose every damn thing they own. Then they can sit on the curb with the rest of us.
Sorry, this is all on obama. He could have stopped it at any time. Gave us crippled HCR then decided to cripple SS and Medicare so they match. Continued the bush tax cuts, then tried to negotiate them back (when he already had them set to expire?). Didn’t even try to get a clean debt ceiling increase. This is all obama’s, and that’s the way the american people are going to see it.
Look at Ari and carville on the CNN. Ari is asking why the Democrats extended the bush tax cuts if they were so bad. This is really, really bad, the democrats are doomed.
larue -
i have the feeling you are looking at the world thru coke-bottle-bottomed glasses, or glasses with lenses from bottles similarly thick.
your comments are blathering examples of cynical ignorance.
Fine, I fart in yer general direction, as that’s the level you play at.
N I just had loads of cabbage, too . . .
Lemme know when ya address my issues, yer’s are out of kilter n wobbly like badly matched dual star.
OH, almost forgot . .
Pull my finger.
As purty as it is and even though they *may* have jobs, perhaps Congressional Country Club at 8500 River Road, Bethesda, MD, 20817 should be the first to go (my bold)?
Let big business sit on money, spend it elsewhere, or invest in another big bubble here. But those traitors that evade paying their fair share of taxes by stashing profits in offshore havens is un-American, rude and disrespectful to the rest of us patriots who play by the rules and pay our fair share of taxes.