43 Republicans have signed a letter to Harry Reid saying they will not vote for his plan tonight to increase the debt limit. This dooms passage because of the de facto supermajority requirement needed to move legislation in the United States Senate, something that Democrats could have legislated out of existence at the beginning of the Congressional session.
This actually isn’t as bad as I expected. Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Scott Brown and Lisa Murkowski did not sign this letter. That puts Reid only three votes shy of an agreement. In addition, this is a rejection of the original Reid bill. He has time to maneuver to attract those three additional votes. Just as an example, making the Gang of Six plan the trigger would almost certainly attract the three Republican members of the Gang.
However, it’s not so much the raw numbers as the act of sending it my Mitch McConnell that speaks volumes. It means that McConnell is committed to blocking the Reid plan via filibuster. It means that he’s not done extracting concessions. It means that he’s essentially operating on behalf of John Boehner and the House Republicans, who want the maximum possible policies in place before committing to increasing the debt limit. The Senate won’t pass their solution with 60 votes, in all likelihood. It’ll probably take 80-85, with minor falloffs on both sides. That deal can only look worse than it does now, and right now it looks pretty bad.
McConnell appealed to the President to get back involved in the negotiations, since that worked so well the first time.
Democrats conceded that they still lack the votes to repel a GOP filibuster. Reid beseeched his Republican counterpart, McConnell, to join him in reworking the measure so the Senate could pass it and send it back to the House before slumping financial markets open Monday morning.
But in a phone call Friday evening, McConnell told Reid he wanted the White House at the table and expressed frustration that President Obama had rejected an emerging compromise between the two Senate leaders last weekend. Aides said McConnell expected to speak with administration officials Friday night and tamped down talk of an impasse. But Senate Democratic leaders reacted with outrage, accusing McConnell of blocking a deal.
“Unless there is a compromise or they accept my bill, we’re headed for economic disaster,” Reid said.
In addition, the House is poised to vote down the Reid proposal today, and House Armed Services Committee Republicans are opening a new front with their objections to the scale of defense cuts in the Reid plan.
The likelihood of default is pretty high at this stage.
…the House just voted down the original Reid plan, with all 235 voting members of the Republican caucus voting no, joined by 11 Democrats. So even if Reid miraculously got through a version of his plan in the Senate today, I don’t know why we should believe the votes would be there in the House at this stage to approve it.
…Pelosi and Reid have been summoned to the White House. Look to the Senate’s next move for the results of that meeting.
…Mitch McConnell says he spoke to Obama and Joe Biden within the past hour, and that the US “is not going to default for the first time ever.” Default is not the real concern, as there’s ample money in incoming revenue to pay debt service. As Jack Balkin points out the President has already invoked the 14th Amendment, albeit narrowly. He has assured that public debt will be paid off. He has not assured on other payment obligations, all of which are statutory.




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I have a feeling that their are other players in this game.
At the end of the day, House Dems and Senate Dems don’t reap any benefits from the Harry Reid Bill
How many Dems in 2012, want to brag about giving the GOP everything they wanted? not many
I think a lot of congress people want OBAMA to use the 14th amendment
I think a lot of GOPers want OBAMA to use the 14th amendment. The tea party is giving a lot of GOP senators head aches.
A lot of House Dems and some House senators see Harry Reid deal as nothing that helps them in 2012, but could hurt them in 2012
it looks like a lot of people want to hang the WH out to dry.
Amy Klobuchar for one. She stands for compromise, bipartisan compromise, more compromise even more bipartisan compromise and yes she is squarely in the middle of compromise. If you find a comprommise, Amy will be there. Now, if you ever run across any principle or person Amy is unwilling to compromise for the sake of compromise, now that would be breaking news.
Since both major parties are bound and determined to make the wrong move and not simply vote in favor of what should be a zero-controversy bill to raise the debt ceiling, and instead, feed us a sh** sandwich; the only thing left to determine is how truely nasty that sh** will be. Taking to heart the posted article below this one, neither party of Congress nor the President are even looking at the issues in a manner that clarity and common sense would dictate, and I fear that nothing will snap them out of this spending/deficit trance.
I’m surprised a progressive would side with conservatives and claim wages and pensions and other obligations set by common law and legislation are not debt.
Note the 14th amendment states pensions as well as “bounties for services” are classed as debt, which one would reasonably interpret to broaden the meaning of debt to any obligation to pay; thus the bills from Z must be paid as debt on the same basis as US Savings Bonds held by your child.
Here is my question: why are conservative policy positions not met with better progressive policy positions.
For example, where is the progressive balanced budget amendment??
I would suggest something like the following:
The first provision would force spending prudence on all; no one would want to trigger the opposing party getting the chance to tailor taxes to punish the opposing party, say conservatives imposing regressive national sales taxes on food (which might be a really good thing for the poor, by the way because advocates would have huge incentives to teach gardening and food prep from basic ingredients because swag 70% of today’s food costs are from the factories and marketing.)
The second would ensure wars wouldn’t be unfunded and that public works were tied to productive capital, but with returns based on their long term benefits.
The third would tie FDR’s Social Security concept to a combination of pay as you go insurance system with insurance reserves tied to productive public works capital investments.
We are where are because hiking taxes is too difficult and obstacles to hiking taxes only increases deficits, debt, and government spending – California’s spending has increased faster since the restriction on tax hikes, and the conservative attack on tax hikes that came into full bloom in the 80s has only increased the debt and deficit and the share of spending. Even PAYGO when forced on Congress by Clinton backfired with an even bigger explosion of spending, tax cuts, and debt.
Get the KY ready…now smile
Gee, I guess Reid should have changed the filibuster rules when he had the chance.
And Amy Klobuchar needs to go. I say that as a Minnesota voter.
Shorter Mitch McConnell: “I’ll only negotiate with the
PushoverPresident!”With all due respect, your plan is simply nonsense.
The main problem is NOT deficits, but lack of equitable economic growth and regressive taxation due to the wealthy and corporate class getting away with looting the public fisc.
Parlor tricks like using a regressive national sales tax to induce poor people to 18th century behaviors ignore the basic fact that such proposals are done specificly to promote right-wing solutions and to repeal the basic fundamental progressive concept of “ability to pay”. Plus, progressives should have no use of using tax policy for “social engineering” poor people; that’s exactly how the Right has used social programs for years.
If there is a need to control the deficit, then the best way is still the old and tried-and-true solutions: cut defense spending by not getting into unnecessary wars, institute single payer health care to get the insurance corp greedheads out of the health care business, and take back public control of our infrastructure through adequate public funding and regulation of transportation, education, and the broadband. Decriminalizing and taxing consensual activities that do no harm would do plenty to reduce the deficit, too.
We don’t need a “progressive” balanced budget amendment. We need progressives to do their damn job and stand for those who voted for them.
Anthony
You ought to ask Boehner where the progressives’ tax plan is. They offered one. It just wasn’t allowed to be voted on.
Fourteenth Amendment. Simple answer.
Unfortunately we have a sold out prick in the WH who doesn’t have the desire or balls to use it.
God I hope Pelosi tells the President to shove it.
Oh…and I’m a newbie here, but a long time lurker. Great job, D-Day, on reporting on all the circus.
Anthony
Between the regular-ghoul gopers, the tea party gopers and the dems, it’s like an argument among murderers as to which weapon to use for the kill. I’m sick of them all!
dday, thank you for working another weekend to cover this story.
And on the original post:
It seems as if the fix is beginning to set in…all Obama has to do, sayeth Bonehead and McTurtle, is agree to the “triggers” in a way that insures that the cuts fall exclusively on “entitlements” and allows the Bush tax cuts to expire, and the deal is done.
And the best thing about it is, of course, it can’t pass without not only Obama bowing down to the GOTP like Kunta Kinte/Toby taking the whip, but he also has to sell this crap to the House Dems and get them to pass it, since no Tea Partier will be forced to vote for it…else the liberals get the blame for causing the default (because the Village Idiot Media always give the TeaKKK the benefit of the doubt).
A double-plus good deal for Obama, who gets his triangulation deal AND gets to hippie-punch the “professional Left” and gets rewarded by Wall Street for saving the country from the big bad TeaKKK, even if he had to firebomb several poor villages to “save” it.
And, the Tea Partiers can continue to rag on the “moderate” Repubs for giving in, even though they got 99.99999% of what they wanted in the first place, since the political dynamics are pushed even more in their direction towards a final victory in 2012, where they can simply rely on Diebold, voter suppression, and a dispirited and split Dem electorate to finally cross the finish line.
Nice job there, Barack and the DLC/Third Way. 70 years of effort destroyed in 16 months. And we gave them a supermajority, too.
Anthony
I believe this meeting with Reid and Pelosi was President Lawn-chair’s “give them whatever they want” meeting.
Caving to progress at full speed. Not sure if they will make the 1 am. vote.
There will be a bill, it will pass and be signed, but it will be very bad.
Just saw Cowboys [and Indians] and Aliens. Every movie cliche you can think of. 007 meets Indiana Jones, kisses House lady, fight aliens to reunite zombies and Civil War Colonels, with help of gang of thieves. Made more sense than anything we’re watching in D.C.
All the plans are terrible policy. Our best hope is a stalemate, no plan; then we all mail pocket copies of the Constitution to the White House and hope someone reads them and tells Geithner to pay the bills and tells GOP to kiss off.
The only thing I can figure is that aliens have taken over the White House. They sure aren’t Democrats.
We’re so doomed. Both sides destroying any chance at a recovery. Both sides doing the bidding of Wall St. and the rating agencies. Remember this weekend, it is the turning point as we descend into hell. There will be no return to prosperity, this is a death nail in the coffin of the middle class.
I can’t wait for the next year as all the politicians try to spin what a brave thing they did. How they had no choice. They will never accept responsibility for which they have done.
We’re so screwed.
Lurker here also, Anthony. Hope to read your thoughts more often.
We have ower 3rd party there the DemoratReplugs.Then we have the strong elected Tea Party that will stand up and say no stop while marching foward.Then we have the elected Progressives in the house and senate that fall apart like wet toilet paper never takeing the responsibility of there actions.
DDay: Why do you say the Senate vote will finally require 80-85 in favor?
I am SO tired of this “ratings agencies” bullshit. I live in Vegas, which expanded to a period of great growth and prosperity via junk bonds.
Yeah, of course, the ensuing subprime CDO securities scam took us down (all of which, recall, were “AAA”), but that was a whole separate deal.
Don’t forget the moronic Democrats in the House who voted against the clean debt ceiling rise a few weeks ago.
I understand there was a supermajority required and people wanted to duck, but those acts of ducking helped to paint us into the corner.
I like the $1T platinum coin solution, personally.
Here is a link to the trillion dollar coin idea.
Eomer: “But do not trust to hope. It has forsaken these lands.”
I think the Senate should….adjourn. Just go home.
If the R’s are threatening to filibuster right through the Tuesday deadline on this….make them do it.
The public is already furious with Washington. Let the cameras show the R’s filibustering as the market dumps all their 401K’s right back to the Bush crash levels.
But….make them do a real filibuster…not just a threat to filibuster.
Doesn’t seem like the R’s are at all concerned about public opinion anymore. They voted unanimously for the Ryan bill to kill Medicare, so they clearly don’t care what is on the record.
I certainly agree to let everyone them adding to the stalemate, never mind, as Jim says, they certainly do not seem to care. But an ugly spectable.
I’ve been reading a lot about that (from letsgetitdone, among others) and I agree that it is the solution we should be looking at. If Obama IS, he is doing a good job of hiding it.
COIN SEIGNIORAGE: A legal alternative to the debt ceiling
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A couple of questions for those more knowledgeable about procedure.
a) Why can’t the Senate use the reconciliation process. Isn’t this budget-related?
b) Congress authorized the spending already (right?) so…why is there a debt ceiling law? The funds aren’t allocated when they pass a law that requires funding?
That picture of Mitch McConnell broadly smiling with Boehner behind him is the scariest picture I have ever seen … stand by for a “cave” of epic proportions :-(
Sure can’t have the banksters miss a collection; they might have to skip the $700 bottle of wine when they take fiscal conservatives to lunch. However, Granny and disabled Americans will have to sacrifice so that no banksters are harmed by the Republicans’ shenanigans.
From the New York Times:
At the White House and in talks in Congressional offices and corridors, most of the attention was focused on finding a way to define the precise conditions under which the president could get a second increase in the debt limit that would be needed early in 2012 under both Republican and Democratic proposals. Officials in both parties said another idea that had surfaced was to require a change in Social Security policy if the new committee deadlocked, providing an incentive for the new committee to act on its own.
Under the proposal that the Congressional Budget Office said could save more than $100 billion over 10 years, a different measure of inflation would be used to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment in Social Security benefits. Supporters say the alternative measure of inflation is more accurate because it reflects what happens when prices rise; advocates for the elderly say the proposal is a backdoor way of cutting benefits.
http://www.nytimes.com/
From the New York Times:
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said polling data showed that at this point in his term, Mr. Obama, compared with past Democratic presidents, was doing as well or better with Democratic voters. “Whatever qualms or questions they may have about this policy or that policy, at the end of the day the one thing they’re absolutely certain of — they’re going to hate these Republican candidates,” Mr. Mellman said. “So I’m not honestly all that worried about a solid or enthusiastic base.”
http://www.nytimes.com
I’m so tired of this whole game. One more manufactured crisis. They have been hell bent on destroying any programs that benefit the poor or middle class since they were first begun. They will not decrease military spending, corporate giveaways etc. They will not raise taxes on anyone except the middle class. We know that. They will cut any program that is a benefit to the middle class or poor, and give that money to the wealthy.
Since no one in America who is being hurt by this can afford a day off to fight it, because we are supporting our kids and grandkids now, it is a waste of time for these chickenshits to keep harping about it. We are tired of hearing about how it is necessary. We know it isn’t. I mean destroy the economy and get it over with already. We all know exactly how this plays out, but we will be forced to listen to these creeps for two more days so they can have a “last minute deal” which “unfortunately” puts all of the shared sacrifuce on those least able to afford it. “No other way to save Wall Street” again. We’ve heard this every other damned week for years now.
Hopefully, it is not going to work out as well as they think. Since a bunch of these old people who are being punished now supprt their kids and grandkids on that meager Social Security, taking away Social Secuity will cause more hunger. We are already getting by on less. There is no less left than we can get by on.
Trying to convince average Americans this is necessary is just rubbing salt inthe wound. We know it isn’t and we hate every one of those bastards. And we aren’t listening any more. They are all to blame. Every one of them. Can’t seem to get rid of any of them though. If they get voted out, they still won’t leave. Like mice, you think you got rid of them, and they find another hole in the wall to dig their way back in. They go right back to Washigton, get paid more and keep right on doing their job of destroying this country. These Washington policticians are a disease. They are like MRSA or herpes.
de facto supermajority is not a requirement. it is a voluntary CHOICE by the majority to use cloture and no further legislation is required for the majority to choose not to use it.
this is something powwow has demonstrated and explained numerous times in multiple comments and diaries.
….
the Ds lied about the senate filibuster rules just as surely as they are lying about the debt limit crisis today. they have repeated created faux “problems.” it’s a pattern. and we need to recognized that in order to stop letting them distract us from paying attention to what’s really going on.
update. please see powwow’s comment here:
http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2011/07/30/senate-debt-ceiling-watch-party-part-iii/#comment-153847
From WSJ:
The tentative deal sketched out by the Senate minority leader focuses heavily on spending cuts and caps, and does little to nothing to raise additional revenues. The joint committee, Sen. McConnell said, will carefully examine entitlement programs, a contentious battleground between the two parties.
“Entitlement reform is absolutely critical,” he said.
And Sen. McConnell trumpeted what could be a political triumph for Republicans: The lack of revenue increases in the deal.
“We’re not going to raise taxes in this deal,” he said. Asked about tax-reform that could close certain loopholes and effectively amount to tax hikes, he said, “There will be no tax increase.”
Kill the bill. Kill the bill. Force Obama to use the powers he ALREADY has. Preferably coin seignorage. Or the 14th amendment.
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