You could probably talk to 100 people and get 100 different interpretations of the stock market volatility we’re seeing in real time. The market opened up 1% and then immediately fell to about even. The stock market is not the economy and really shouldn’t be seen as a barometer for the economy. The market went up for about two years at a time when unemployment was above 9%. Dean Baker argues that it’s now undervalued relative to corporate earnings. Both statements can be true – we’ve seen earnings rise as employment falls recently. But Baker is right that being bullish on the stock market bears no relation to being bullish on the economy:
If the profit share remains constant (it is now at a record high), then investors will be getting more than 9 cents in profits for every dollar invested today. That seems like a pretty good deal. If the stock price went nowhere and firms paid out 60 percent in dividends or share buybacks (roughly the historic average), that implies a return of 5.4 percent.
This is not bad when interest rates are near zero, but of course share prices are likely to rise over any long period at least in step with the rate of growth of profits. If the economy has a very weak 2 percent real growth rate, with 2 percent inflation, and profits keep pace, then then the return on stock will be 9.4 percent annually if stock prices grow in step with profit. There does not seem a lot of downside risk in this picture.
Of course the bad news is the flip side of this story. It would be nice to see workers getting back some of the ground that they lost to corporate profits over the last two decades. However, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. This is bad news for bulk of the population that relies on their wages for the vast majority of their income, but it is good news for people who have lots of money invested in the stock market. So, why aren’t they happy?
You have animal spirits often driving market behavior, fluctuating on rumor or a bad feeling. There’s even speculation that one large hedge fund dumping stocks caused the entire sell-off yesterday.
Then there’s an entire other element to this that nobody is talking about – the Bank of America death watch, which has seen their stock plunge 34% in a week. BofA is a member of the Dow, so that alone would be a major problem for the main indice. And that has nothing to do with S&P or the debt limit deal, and everything to do with the fact that BofA’s Countrywide liabilities are catching up with them, and that they haven’t been able to manage a great escape. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, i.e. the systemic risk regulator, met about BofA overnight.
Finally, there’s the more mundane explanation, that Europe is about to blow up the world financial markets through a currency breakup or some other calamity.
I’m willing to believe that the markets feared that S&P’s debt downgrade would lead to more austerity and a weakened economy as a result, but that sounds entirely too rational.





34 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
I’ve been of the suspicion that, among other nefarious hidden objectives, certain favored financial types were on the inside track so they could make a gagillion bucks ripping off in the financial markets.
However one cuts it, the situation is a bad one.
Maybe the markets are nervously contemplating the possibility of President Perry.
Mitt Romney seems to be all kinds of prepared to go after Obama on this either he knew ahead of time or Bain Capital is hurting because of this also a commentor at FDL pointed out at least one Congressman was shorting America recently can’t recall the commentor or Congressman’s name.
It’s far more likely that the markets abroad would react to the very real possibility of Italy and Spain going under in the next month than to the very remote possibility of the U.S. going under in the next 20 years (which is what the downgrade represents). The U.S. market just followed suit.
Hey, eCAHN.
Metamorphis.”Profits are for the few , but pain must be shared by all.”
Don’t you just love ‘capitalists’? From the crew on MSNBC and most other financial networks ,otherwise known as Wall Street pimps and whores.Six months ago: “Goverment is to big. The Fed has really screwed thgings up.” Today: “The Fed really needs to do something to calm the markets.Translatin:”Please bail our geedy asses out.They are the only entity big enough to affect change.” or sentnce one in this post.These people really are blind to their inconsistencies………….
I think people are confusing the stock market with the economy because Obama was pointing out that he saved the banks and the stock market and the economy would be worse than it is now with no bailout.
But Obama did not reform the banks or stock market so they kept on doing the same stuff that led to the bailout and now Obama is in a trap of his own making.
We should be pointing out all the GOPers no blaming Obama for the stock market who are invested in the stock market and were against financial reform.
Double evil points if they shorted America.
I do agree the stock market is not our economy but our economy sucks its musical chairs the rich did not complain when jobs got scarce or people lost their homes but now the chair they were sitting on has been taken.
Please bail our geedy asses out.They are the only entity big enough to affect change.”
I expect another bank bailout in at most a year followed by more cuts to SS and Medicare.
now that the casino’s computers have been set at -700 max, I don’t know if “the market” (what a quaint expression for the gold sacks computer program) is really relevant to human activity.
kj
Yves Smith has a post on that. It turns out that it will be very hard to get an SEC violation out of insider trading unless there was some quid pro quo given for the information. Apparently the news was leaked to certain hedge funds on Tuesday and Wednesday. She conjectures that this is why S&P did not revise the rating after the two trillion dollar mistake was pointed out to them.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/did-standard-and-poors-break-sec-regulations-in-disclosing-its-downgrade-to-select-parties.html
I see that the President and his minions have canceled all public events today. They are in deep confab. God knows what horrors will come out of it this afternoon. It’s pretty obvious, though, that this is the crisis of the Obama Presidency. No wiggle room left. Either change course or be the twenty-first centuries first Herbert Hoover. (He already got the James Buchanan Prize for accommodating reaction)
Cantor
If lucky the WH “geniuses” are crafting a snappy speech announcing he will not seek a 2nd term. He has a walnut paneled corner office on Wall Street waiting for him.
Thanks we need to bring this news out more on the front page.
Great Obama risks being like Bush now giving happy economy speeches as the market goes down time to break out the econ snark again.
Panic selling followed by a rise means the seller lost the rest are waiting it out. It is a crap shoot for the small investor. Corporations model business plans for profit. Some sectors do better than others.
GNP (gross national product) can shrink as will government income while the corporations make a profit.
Kind of surprising that Baker would use Bernanke’s definition of inflation–one that takes into account neither food nor fuel.
Just as relevent to how & where Gov’t.s inject $$ into markets (if it doesn’t spur growth, what good is coming from it?), it’s critical to look at what’s generating corp. profits and how much of these profits corps are reinvesting.
Billionaires hire puppets who raise a rabble of threatening
munchkins, the American basij.
I’ve a job and family, so the following’s a quick copy-paste:
when Sharron Angle Implied Harry Reid Unmanly (?!) (esp.: Reid: frmrBoxer;Brilliant;Cmpssnat) Became Obvious Saying Gays Should Not Live Is ToDemonize To Associate Any Foe Therewith. Then Was Jews, Then Nations Integrated (immigrants.) IT PROCESS SELF-GENERATED HYPOCRITICAL SCAPEGOATING GAYS, the ”Bad” Ones. Hitler Feminine,JFK killers gay fascists. THE FEAR OF BEING WRONGLY FERRETED OUT AS GAY IS THE FEAR OF FASCISM. WHY IT,much more,MAY CONFIRM, NOT CONDEMN, RELIGION:
own website deleted from message–I’m not here to spam.
But, I’m about a proposal as to a genuine scientific “control” along
the lines of history and morality and science all wrapped up one
(plus I’ve been explaining how we may prove information lives, sort of,
plus how for a fact personalities have been foreseen.)
As to the economic question, apart from the repeat of the
analogy courteous of L. Frank Baum,
Obviously if the scapegoaters for profit rape the tax code impoverishing
the non-uber-wealthy, insulate themselves from rules, and the cowarded masses defend, often dogmatically, even threateningly, mis-quotes of Adam Smith and other demagoguery, and those profiting from that take their
oligopolies and gatekeeping power and run with it, waste and inefficiency and stagnation from lack of competitive innovation will result.
The gatekeeping is everywhere: health insurance, pharmaceuticals, etc.
After a debt bubble obviously fiscal stimulus offers the only sensible
potential whereas “QE” is pushing on a string. But QE bails those who
tried juicing their traditional returns by shoving more debt onto a
bamboozled middle class. But how does a weak $US help if earlier
cowering and corruption means a huge oil import price regardless?
It doesn’t have to be the end of the world, I think.
It doesn’t take much to fix ourselves, I think.
The whole world confronts a choice of hypocrisy and survival or
idealism, I think.
That requires settling on discarding the scapegoating and arrogance, I think.
Then we have to tell those leaders MxxTxRBxTxG their egos and needs of pacification, and to tell those who have felt insulted or threatened to
understand and look past the transference, that we will not survive
absent that and then not fighting in the streets.
It will enable laying down arms and growing on a moral, history-based, and
actually very much scientific (even technological) level all at once,
and then just working on perfecting happiness.
When did the previous cuts happen?
Bank of America constitutes 0.46% of the weighting of the Dow Index. It could go to zero and only move the DJIA about 10 points.
Try again.
Ignorance of the public is what makes the manipulation possible. In 1984 Orwell uses SOMA the drug to fog reason. A big part of our population is medicated and certainly uninformed.
In fact, BAC has the lowest weighting of any of the 30 stocks on the DJIA.
Blog commenting sure beats standing on the street corner holding that sign.
There’s even speculation that one large hedge fund dumping stocks caused the entire sell-off yesterday.
Not only is that more probability than possibility, as I have opined before, the whole hedge fund crowd is at the root cause of all this mayhem.
Investors are what my clients are; traders are what’s behind wild swings in the averages and huge volume.
My clients, while appropriately worried about what’s going on, are not calling to sell everything one day then buy it back the next. That’s what traders do, and when they have 30-1 leverage and negligible borrowing costs on their side you get what we have gotten the last few days.
I laugh when I read “Investors are nervous about the debt ceiling deal, Europe’s finances, and our stagnant U.S. economy” as if any of these items represent new news.
No, the aforementioned traders smell fear in the air like a dog does and are simply taking advantage of the non-implementation of several parts of Dodd-Frank that would curb such destructive behavior in the financial markets to their benefit.
alan1tx@25
ROFLOL x 2!
kj
‘/g Couldn’t resist.
And yet you’re the only one responding to that gibberish.
Takes one to know one.
Cut to the quick by a devastatingly original rejoinder.
I yield to your superior intellect, surely the end of the world is near.
The market.
We will have a rally. We will eventually take out yesterdays lows by a substantial margin.
The market sold off NOT ON THE DOWNGRADE but beause the effects of stimulus wore off and the prospects of more/any stimulus with Barrack Hoover Ocavea in the Tea Party camp are zero.THERE IS NO LONGER A BACKSTOP…A WHITE KNIGHT (excuse the phrase)TO RESCUE THE MARKETS.
The 1999 Greenspan cuts to Social Security occurred when the Fed – not Congress, not the President – changed the calculation so as to get a lower CPI – and indeed with Bush went to town with the concept of “substitution” – going from steak to hamburger is a decrease to inflation.
Indeed “Chained” is just “substitution” expanded, so not just going to hamburger because steak costs too much gets you lower inflation, under “chained” going to hamburger because gas costs too much gets you lower inflation.
The result is the Greenspan cut to Social Security. Of course there are the Reagan cuts as his age 67 retirement is phased in from the prior age 65 retirement – we are currently at age 66 I believe for this years batch.
Eric Cantor, who also had a huge role in delaying the debt ceiling legislation to the almost last minute.
Google didn’t come up with anything for:
I wasn’t aware that C-CPI had happened.
I acknowledge the Reagan era age adjustment. I guess when the commenter said “more cuts to SS and Medicare”, I assumed he meant something more recient.