Yesterday, the Senate voted for cloture on a motion to proceed on a bill to discourage China’s currency manipulation, with a bipartisan 79-19 vote. 31 Republicans voted for the bill with 48 Democrats.
There is nothing out there that would move the needle on jobs that would possibly get that kind of broad support. Functionally, the American Jobs Act is not a going concern, so lowering the trade deficit by ending the policy of China artificially keeping the cost of their exports low is what we have to work with. It’s a key step for now and the future to rebalance trade and give US manufacturing and exports a fighting chance.
That would be a real trade agenda, one that the broad mass of the American public supports and that has the support of both parties. The other “trade agenda,” the one neoliberals prefer, is the one the President kickstarted by sending three trade deals to Congress.
The series of trade agreements I am submitting to Congress today will make it easier for American companies to sell their products in South Korea, Colombia, and Panama and provide a major boost to our exports. These agreements will support tens of thousands of jobs across the country for workers making products stamped with three proud words: Made in America. We’ve worked hard to strengthen these agreements to get the best possible deal for American workers and businesses, and I call on Congress to pass them without delay, along with the bipartisan agreement on Trade Adjustment Assistance that will help workers whose jobs have been affected by global competition.
The fact you need to tie trade adjustment assistance, which provides support for workers displaced by US trade policy, should tell you something about the employment benefits of these trade deals. Countless expert studies show that they will only increase trade deficits and cost American jobs. What’s more, when you’re putting together a binational trade pact with a country that kills trade unionists as a matter of course, you have lost any moral authority to say that you’re acting in the interests of workers anywhere.
So that’s really the choice. We could have a real trade agenda that allows American companies that can manufacture goods to compete on a level and legal playing field, unwinding a thirty-year slide, or we can sign so-called “free” trade bills that will continue the slow bleed of US manufacturing jobs.
As for what will happen, House Speaker John Boehner said yesterday that he would send the trade deals to the floor for passage along with the separate bill authorizing trade adjustment assistance. The likely outcome is that TAA will be authorized and then never appropriated, and even the fig leaf to get support for the trade bills will not materialize. Meanwhile, the House, scrambling to avoid the label of obstructionism on forcing China to stop manipulating their currency, will try a bait and switch:
But while the Chinese currency measure enjoys Republican support in the Senate, it is viewed less favorably in the House, where Representative Dave Camp, the Michigan Republican who is chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, is expected to offer his own less aggressive version later this year. Some lawmakers fear that the measure would cause a trade war at a time when China has moved slowly to increase the value of its currency.
Representative Eric Cantor, Republican of Virginia and the House majority leader, said the bill could have “unintended consequences,” contributing perhaps to an increase in consumer prices.
So the House passes a toothless bill, then there’s either no conference committee on the bill (see FAA authorization) and nothing passes, or the toothless, useless House bill passes. And China keeps eating our lunch.
This is unacceptable. The currency bill that mirrors the Senate bill got over 340 votes just last year in the House. There is close to a majority co-sponsoring the bill. There’s a discharge petition that no Republicans have signed, even though over 60 that have co-sponsored the bill. There’s a path to pressure those Republicans who have expressed their support to sign their names on the dotted line on that petition and force their leadership to do what’s necessary to stop China from manipulating their currency.




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Interesting. I found this
This must meant that the “the key elements of the “plan” are successfully implemented. “
Facts not in evidence.
This is so full of crap that even free-trade economists like Paul Krugman can’t take it any more. It should actually read
You already stated on the other column that you have a financial interest in seeing China take us to the cleaner in currency manipulation, so put it out on the table here, too, traitor.
The Chinese artificially low labor cost projection is killing not just our employment but the employment pictures of numerous other countries, and contributing to the rape of the environment — and actually, given the way that’s accomplished — just the actual rape — of the Africans. It’s an all around winner that you’re betting on. They debased their culture in the 40s and have no qualms about doing what’s necessary to jian pianyi regardless of what’s the downside. But that’s your philosophy too.
The rest of the country needs jobs even if you’ve got one. Free trade isn’t a good thing for us now, but neither is allowing the Chinese to continue their labor black hole, if we can do anything to stop it. Congress was given the power under the Constitution to regulate trade and impose tariffs, and it should do that in the national interest, not to the advantage of speculators like yourself.
Will that do it without an industrial policy and a research policy? No. Is not doing it in our nation’s best interests? Also no.
These free trade agreements are just another example of Obama talking out of both sides of his mouth.
He put’s forth a weak “jobs” package which he knows has a snowballs chance in hell of passing, pumps his fist a couple times and gives a little red meat too the lefties knowing that 95% of them will fall into line, and while those 95% are busy clapping and praising the tough words and legislation that will never pass he sneaks through yet more American job killing, middle/working class destroying “free trade” laws.
And the 1% get a little richer while the 99% take another kick to the teeth.
What a crock…
Adding – But hey, I suppose we should be happy Obama didn’t push for drone drops on Colombian union activists…
Um. I have a short-term financial interest in an appreciating Chinese currency, but a mid to long-term interest in not seeing the American consumer lose what little remaining purchase power it has.
As noted on the other column, your reading comprehension skills are terrible. Try again.
Ya. The only part not implemented is the little detail about more dead unionists all the time. But the plan is in place, right? So why be picky about that little detail?
“I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country….corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.”
President Lincoln.
As for the concerns of Jefferson and Madison about corporate power. Most policies which effects American’s today in a negative manner, enrich corporation. From energy to transportation to Wall Street to healthcare, the theme is, protect Wall Street, which has cannibalized a republic. Meanwhile the great American corporation made great by the work of Americans go do business in emerging markets
“COMMUNIST COUNTRIES,”seeking lower wage earners and less regulation to maximize corporate profit.Imagine “Ike,” sending the seeds of America’s space program to India or Pakistan today. As far as I’m concerned many of these corporations are traitors to the republic, in the lust for perpetual corporate profit.
Obama is promoting agreements that will increase the US trade imbalance, increasing imports and decreasing exports, but it’s okay because the senate passed a bill that will help workers who have lost their jobs as a result of increased imports and job outsourcing.
The Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) act will include:
*Rapid Response to will make employees aware of the different services available to workers after a layoff is announced
*Reemployment Services to offer workers assistance in finding a new job. For individuals who require retraining, these services will help identify appropriate training programs, and help them obtain reemployment at the conclusion of the training program.
*Job Search Allowances – may be payable to cover expenses incurred in seeking employment outside a certified worker’s normal commuting area, if a suitable job is not available in the area.
*Relocation Allowances which may reimburse approved expenses when certified workers must move to a new area of employment outside their normal commuting area.[Gonna pay off that mortgage too?]
*Training is provided to certified workers who do not have the skills to secure suitable employment in the existing labor market.
Trade adjustment assistance – sounds like a good idea to me. Kind of like the army compensation program for “collateral damage.”
It is sure to anger China, though, but we get no benefit from it.
Worst of both worlds…
If the Senate Democrats had been smart, they would have labeled this the “Save American Jobs” Bill and Obama and the House Republicans would have more likely been forced to support it.
Don’t propagate silliness please. What does that even mean, anger China, as if China had feelings.
China will look out for China even when the US doesn’t get its sh-t together.
I don’t care about China’s hurt feefees. They’ve been well compensated and can deal with it.
Don’t kid yourself, this is just window dressing – its going no where. Its just more crap served up to Democrats to placate the base.
It’s going no where. It’s a waste of time to even speculate about it.
My reading comprehension skills are just fine:
Whatever way you want to couch yourself, and however you want to ameliorate your bet to say that you would like to be on the side of the “American Consumer” who will “buy your products”, and about your “living more than 5 years”, you have bet the other way. I’m not impressed with your concern for the consumer, that’s just a concern for your business interests, a selfish libertarianism. I’m calling treachery on your lack of concern for the American worker. On that score, I’m on very solid ground, and my reading skills are just fine thank you. No matter where I go on the blogosphere, whenever some turncoat like you tries to portray me as the person who can’t see what they are really arguing and how their black is white argument really is the truth, It’s amazing how I get told I can’t read.
I can. I was following the pea, not your shells. I know how to play shellgames.
I don’t want to get into your argument with Nathan – I’d just like to point out that this legislation has absolutely no chance of passing. It’s all part of the Kabuki Theater we call Congress. The Senate passes something that makes you happy knowing all the time that it will not get through the House so it’s a meaningless act whose only reason for existing it to please folks like me and you. The Corporate interests who own both the Dems and Repubs don’t want it to happen so it won’t happen. It’s just a crumb the Senate Dems are throwing you to keep you on board.
Now on the other hand the so called Free Trade stuff is sure to pass and your Dems will be voting for it so now they can say they tried to something about X but the nasty Repubs prevented them from doing it! Its all Theater and its all the time kind’a like all movies all the time on Home Box.
You know, I wish Warren Buffett would spend less time on the soapbox pushing for higher taxes on the rich (not a bad idea, but a nonstarter with a GOP House) and instead push for the balanced trade plan proposed by, by… what was his name… oh yes Warren Buffett.
Import Certificates are a proposed mechanism to implement balanced trade, and eliminate a country’s trade deficit. The idea was proposed by Warren Buffett in 2003 to address the U.S. trade deficit. In the United States, the idea was first introduced legislatively in the Balanced Trade Restoration Act of 2006. The proposed legislation was sponsored by Senators Byron Dorgan (ND) and Russell Feingold (WI), two Democrats in the United States senate. Since then there has been no action on the bill.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_Certificates
Seriously? Christ.
The American consumer is the American worker in my world. If Americans don’t have jobs, then they don’t make money, and they don’t consume things, which then kills the revenues for the businesses who are my clients.
I bet on the Renminbi as a hedge that China wouldn’t be able to maintain their Dollar peg because of domestic market pressures in China. Something which still holds true. I never expected the U.S. to so brazenly try to shove its own citizens over the cliff to make it happen.
Let’s just play this game then. In order for an appreciation in Chinese currency to have benefits for the American worker these things have to happen:
1) There has to be essentially no other cheap substitutable labor force for the Chinese.
2) The net increase in Chinese currency value has to somewhere get near the ballpark of the current delta between Chinese and U.S. labor cost in order to be an incentivizing offset for domestic production.
3) The U.S. industrial base needs to require lots and lots of human labor to boost production capacity.
None of those things is the case here. The Chinese are already using outsourced labor for raw materials extraction and in some cases intermediate goods from poorer surrounding countries, so there’s your substitutable labor force. The highest minimum wage in China is ~$200 per month. The lowest in the United States is ~$1250 per month. Chinese currency appreciation isn’t going to be a 600% revaluation, and when you take into account relative cost of living, the delta is even worse. The U.S. industrial base is significantly more advanced than China’s. Meaning that a job that they still have people toiling away at there has been replaced with modern machinery, computers, and robots here. People seem to forget that the U.S. was the world’s largest manufacturer as recently as 2010, and has only barely slipped behind China in 2011. The difference is we don’t use anywhere near as many people to manufacture roughly the same amount of total goods. Production gets sent to China because their people are cheaper than our machines and our machines are cheaper than our people.
So, the idea that this is going to be some boon to American workers on any reasonable time-horizon is a complete fantasy.
Jobs didn’t rush back to the U.S when Taiwan became the new Japan. Jobs didn’t rush back to the U.S. when China became the new Taiwan. Etc. etc. etc.
The only thing that will happen if China’s currency appreciates to market value (assuming they let it float entirely, which is doubtful) is the entire ecosystem of Chinese production becomes more expensive. All goods and services that are currently touched by cheap Chinese output will go up in price. American’s still won’t have jobs. So what happens? Purchasing power of Americans plummets until cheap Chinese labor transitions to other Asian and/or African countries. American’s still won’t have jobs.
Basically what you’re arguing for as a super great idea for the American worker is tantamount to jacking up the price of oil as a means to break dependence on it without having any plan for the transition in place. It would be catastrophic for the average American worker, because their aggregate costs would go way up, and they’d still not be making any more money.
This is precisely why industrial policy needs to precede this sort of trade policy. You’re taking away the benefits of the current imbalance, replacing with with nothing, and then hammering people with the downside of the imbalance. It’s a completely shit deal for the American worker, consumer, whatever. The only people who gain anything out of that are people who are holding Chinese assets (financial or otherwise). This of course happens to be a lot of multi-national conglomerates and investors… which is why this policy is being pushed by the Democrats (it’s being opposed by the Republicans only because it’s being pushed by the Democrats).
The likelihood that such a move would be a boon to U.S. exports is about the same as Free-Trade agreements providing jobs to Americans, and even if it were a boon to U.S. exports it’s not at all the case that this would actually produce more jobs for people instead of machines, and even if it did provide more jobs for people it wouldn’t come until after the massive deflationary pressures of having their current purchasing power completely demolished.
Since that action plan on April 6, 15 Colombian trade unionists have been murdered.
Fix our industrial policy and employment problem first, then start monkeying around with global currency regimes. Otherwise you’re going to do nothing but induce huge amounts of pain for basically no gain.
Order of operations is exceedingly important here.
I am just making a general point and not getting into merits or demerits of the on-going thread from which above statement is picked up.
Once this remaining manufacturing base is lost it will be really difficult to go back to the prior point. Fixing it sooner is better than doing the problem resolution after remaining manufacturing base closes down.
statements of support for the agreement. from the executive office of the President:
http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/blog/2011/april/statements-support-us-colombia-trade-agreement
just for fun, here are a few of them;
National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC)
National Pork Producers Council
Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA)
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.)
Third Way
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
United States Council for International Business (USCIB)
U.S. Grains Council
U.S. Wheat Industry
Walmart
WHAT? no labour support?
You’ve completely missed the point. We’re not losing manufacturing base. We’re losing people working in it. We’re still manufacturing HUGE numbers of goods.
If you’re talking about the base of people working in it then what you’re saying is we should undo our technological advances and stop using computers, robots, and machines to build things by replacing them with people. That’s a direct argument against modernization (which makes one wonder if we should un-invent the plow and tractor too), not against Chinese currency policy.
When we are losing the top spot as worlds largest manufacturer we can conclude our manufacturing output is not meeting the demand.
If other country is able to supercede our country it shows the excess demand is being met by other country and so it is primarily due to our manufacturing base being shut-down due to being un-competative because of fake hurdles being created for it and not due to automation because if this a factor we would still be in the top spot and lose that spot. Looks something similar to what NAFTA did to our manufacturing base.
It is difficult to ramp up something once all the skills and work-force are lost. So fix sooner is better than no-fix and letting market fix it eventually in my opinion.
Here’s some more on the union murders in Colombia, and the sorry prosecutorial actions that have been undertaken.
“At least 38 trade unionists have been slain since President Juan Manuel Santos took office in August 2010, says Colombia’s National Labor School. . . . Convictions have been obtained for less than 10 percent of the 2,886 trade unionists killed since 1986 [according to Human Rights Watch].
“A chief finding: The 74 convictions achieved over the past year owe largely to plea bargains with members of illegal far-right militias who confessed to killings in exchange for leniency.
. . .
“Prosecutors “made virtually no progress in prosecuting people who order, pay, instigate or collude with paramilitaries in attacking trade unionists,” the letter states. “What is at stake is the justice system’s ability to act as an effective deterrent to anti-union violence.”’
Do go here for more.
And according to this source, 49 of the 90 trade unionists murdered in 2010 were in Colombia.
a fine partner for a trade agreement.
utter garbage.
It costs less to produce some goods in other places, so of course those places will pick up slack in productive output, because we don’t produce those things competitively. As noted earlier, in order for Chinese currency revaluation to make any dent at all in this requires a lot of other factors to be true that aren’t.
Thank you.
And why can China produce these goods more cheaply? Subsidies, outright and de facto, such as their longstanding currency manipulation.
Meanwhile, the idea that forcing China to end their currency will just send jobs to the rest of Southeast Asia instead of back to the US ignores a few points, particularly the fact that the Senate bill takes aim at all currency manipulators. As David explained earlier this week: