Later today, Senate Republicans will filibuster the American Jobs Act, the $447 billion bill to add demand into the economy through infrastructure spending, payroll tax cuts, extended unemployment insurance and a variety of other programs, paid for by a 5.6% surtax on millionaires. Republicans are likely to be unanimous in their opposition, while Democrats will be unanimous, or near-unanimous, in their support. That would put the bill at 53 votes, seven short of the 60 needed to clear a cloture vote, because the modern Senate is an anti-majoritarian institution.
Where will Senate Democrats go from here? They’ll have a talking point about Republicans being uninterested in jobs in the middle of a jobs crisis. At the same time, there will be a jobs crisis, and incumbents are likely to be blamed next year for their failure to arrest it. So Senate Democrats may take apart the bill and try to pass particular pieces.
For instance, New York Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has been quietly courting some Senate Republicans and Democrats to see whether there is any appetite for merging a GOP-backed idea — a tax holiday for corporations to bring home their overseas profits — with a Democratic-supported plan of creating a national infrastructure bank. At the same time, Democrats are weighing whether to push ahead with other individual pieces of the president’s jobs plan, like its extension of the payroll tax cut.
On the floor this week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) also plans to schedule votes with significant GOP support but tepid backing among Hill Democrats: free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama. And on Tuesday, the Senate is expected to give final passage to a bipartisan bill cracking down on Chinese currency policies, a populist proposal with broad support in the Senate but opposed by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio).
As Bernie Sanders alludes to later in this piece, this is like exchanging a fire extinguisher for a match and some kindling. The so-called free trade agreements will cost roughly 200,000 jobs over 10 years and commit the United States to placidly doing business with the most dangerous place for trade unionists, Colombia, in the world. The repatriation tax holiday is a horrible idea that didn’t create jobs the first time it was attempted in 2004, that solves a non-existent problem of capital inflows which are already at a decent enough level, and that teaches multinational corporations how to avoid taxes by stashing more of their profits overseas.
The payroll tax cut, while criticized by some, acts as a wage increase for wage earners who have seen their take-home pay fall. And the Chinese currency bill is just smart policy. But because they have the likelihood of being effective, the Republican House will resist any efforts to pass them. And ideas like a sustained 5- to 7-year infrastructure spending program are really pie in the sky, however necessary.
So outside of a trade adjustment assistance bill that merely limits the damage caused by the trade agreements (and we’ll see if the money gets appropriated after the program is authorized), I just don’t see any fiscal help coming from Congress for the rest of this term. Which means that fiscal policy will turn even more negative after the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment insurance benefits run out at the end of this year. Merely extending them would only preserve the great status quo we have going at the moment.
UPDATE: Just to reinforce this notion that repatriation tax holidays are miserable policy, a new report shows that the companies that benefited most from the holiday in 2004 cut a net 20,000 jobs, and the country was deprived of $3.3 billion as a result. And the author of that study? The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. So they know the outcome of such a policy.




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I will be surprised if the dems actually get 50 votes – more likely that it is less than a clear, simple majority.
This whole “jobs bill” was DOA and everybody knows that.
I don’t see any reason why the entire congress can’t just adjourn NOW and take the rest of the year off.
you know, DC is starting to look more and more like Sacramento until we passed a law that said you don’t get paid until you do your job and repealed the 2/3 majority rule. Maybe we’re headed to legislating through proposition on a national level?? or not.
Tax cuts, well that’s all just wonderful, more of the voodoo trickle down economic theory that has worked so well to drive us into a deep hole. Very Republican. If it truly is DOA, good. Although they do need to extend unemployment benefits. Republicans will never vote to tax the rich. The rest is all voodoo economic nonsense. I agree with newcarguy, they might as well go home, they will do less damage that way. Zero needs to play more golf.
How many votes did Bush tax cut bill get in the Senate when it passed…53? We can’t count on Elected Democrats to represent the 99%. The rules of the Senate are BS. The Depression is happening now but for the creative numbers coming from our government.
p.s. Any stimulus will be very short lived since 60% of the money goes offshore within two weeks of paydaY.
David, please i beg you consider doing a story on this. Bill Still knows of what he speaks and I am sure you can contact him through his website. the solution to our problems are not as difficult as our politicians would try to make out. getting this info out to FDL and us sending it viral to OWS etc
Pillar #1: End government borrowing. A sovereign nation does not have to borrow, in fact, being debt-free is the very definition of sovereignty. Pay off the existing bonds — which is our National Debt — as they come due, but pay them off with debt free U.S. Notes (or their electronic equivalents) instead of Federal Reserve Notes, which are all borrowed into existence.
Please see my short (3 min 54 sec) YouTube on this topic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9oKt6vT-w
Pillar #2: Banks should only be able to lend money they actually have. This is called “full-reserve” banking. Before the crash, commercial banks were lending out between 10 and 300 times the amount of money they actually had. Therefore, they are in complete control of theAmerican money supply, instead of we, the people being in control as is called for in Article 8:
“The Congress shall have Power To … coin Money, [and] regulate the Value thereof….”
Please see my short (5 min) YouTube on this topic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULEfalVnMJI
It’s too bad our direct democracy practices here in California don’t apply at the national level. I often wish they did.
UPDATE: Just to reinforce this notion that repatriation tax holidays are miserable policy, a new report shows that the companies that benefited most from the holiday in 2004 cut a net 20,000 jobs, and the country was deprived of $3.3 billion as a result. And the author of that study? The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. So they know the outcome of such a policy.
you are leaving out the most delicious part: the money was used to buy back stock and drive up the earnings/share. Did. not. create. jobs. as. promised.
I don’t know…it’s a double edge sword.
There are many wonderful ideas, but this government won’t do anything. They plan to let Rome burn to the ground and ‘kick the can down the road’. We have a totally disfunctional government. Which is how the oligarchs like it.
Gridlock, low voter turnout, they love that stuff because it undermines democracy. What’s left of it. Watch the only thing they might manage to do is more tax cuts and more free trade agreements. It’s all so depressingly predictable.
Yes….TALKING POINTS!!!
Thats been my feeling for sometime now. Dems just do things with no other agenda than to create a “talking point” to use in elections in some distant future to appeal to people who werent paying attention in the first place. Its like there is some imaginary electorate they are playing to.
All anyone ever takes away from their machinations is the simple reaffirmation that Dems are weak and ineffectual.
And really. In the short term buidling a bridge is not going to help the greater portion of those out of work. Yes we need to re invest in the infrastructure. But how many out-of-work woman are gonna be on some road crew. And if you are a 30 something degreed man, are you really gonna get a job welding steel?
I agree and disagree. Construction jobs will allow a lot of people to pay bills and buy stuff. create demand. then the college grads can start their own businesses to provide goods and services. or something. that’s my trickle up theory fwiw.
and yes Talking Points for next election: my picture for that is dick durbin waving his hands in the air on the empty floor of the senate, like a man howling at the wind in the town square. loonier than any protester imo.
Infrastructure jobs will last only as long as the funds do. Even with that when projects are completed what jobs are the formerly employed workers going to jump to? Whirlpool, Nike, Gateway et al are not going to bring their manufacturing capabilities back to the US as long as they can get labour for $2-3/day in China and other countries. Since companies like Whirlpool and Maytag are headquartered in the US they won’t be designated as importers and we won’t be able to slap tariffs on their products. Unless we rebuild our manufacturing sector the situation will only worsen. We’ve got 24+ million people unemployed and the prospect of most of them ever being employed again is dismal at best. Corporate profits are up again and that means somebody’s buyin’ their shit. Until those numbers fall into negative territory there’s no impetus to change the way they do business.
the modern Senate is an anti-majoritarian institution.
Always has been.
In Nov next year I am writing in a candidate for Prez. I am thinking E Warren but will go with the consensus if it is OWS approved. Can’t vote D or R.
Senate IS the House of Lords
FL usually has a candidate from the Socialist Party of FL. That’s where my vote will go. If there isn’t a socialist on the ballot I’ll just leave that race blank.
I know that, but I think a lot of people do not know what the solutions could be. So instead of David spending so much time focusing on congress dysfunction be great if he could talk and cover people like Bill Still, so more people are aware of what we can do
There’s a problem with trying to control the money supply. The Fed before, and for a time under, Volcker, attempted to use money supply to make monetary policy, the monetarists. It didn’t, and doesn’t, work.
Secrets of the Temple by William Greider
http://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Temple-Federal-Reserve-Country/dp/0671675567/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1318355110&sr=1-3
What I’m saying is OWS should word of mouth support a single write in as a unifying protest to the 1% from the 99%. Can’t that be accomplished just like the protests themselves?
I didn’t say anything about controlling the money supply, I said we need to change the monetary system. right now we have debt based money and we have banks controlling the money supply. Did you look at money masters the doc by Bill Still and the other links I provided you. Great places to start and it really breaks down what has been going on and why it is the root of our problems
We’re certainly moving in that direction. Once the Republicans get rid of the estate tax and shift the income tax burden from investment income to wages, we can make Senate seats hereditary. It remains to be seen whether women will be cut out of the line of succession.
edit – to tam @ 22
It remains to be seen
whetherwhen women will be cut out of the line of succession.call me paranoid… :)
Different states have different rules about write-ins. Most write-in votes don’t even show up in the final tabulations except as “Other.” Do you think there could be enough people to write-in one person’s name in every state? Who would that person be? We can’t wait until next August to figure that out.
PS: did not mean to suggest you do not know what the problems are, just meant to ask have you seen Bill still doc
Since Corporations are people can’t IBM and GE just buy a seat in the Senate with their name on it like a seat at the Stock Exchange?
That way they wouldn’t have to waste money buying new posters and buttons every six years.
That’s what your Bill Still advocates.
I’m going to assume that bstill3 wrote the summary that appears below the YouTube of The Secret of Oz:
“Remember: It’s not what backs the money, it’s who controls its quantity.”
Emphasis mine.
That’s controlling the money supply.
He also advocates just printing money. Germany did that in the 30s. It took a wheelbarrow full to buy a loaf of bread. It was worthless.
You need to look into Modern Monetary Theory.
I like Elizabeth Warren but I am writing in someone I believe is on our side. We have no political party that represents 99% of the people.
Heh, that’s old news. *g*
To be clear I was emphasizing why I was writing in a candidate not voting any party affiliation.
In other earth shattering news…the Sun will set in the West tonight and Obama will be on the phone with (fill-in Wall Street execs’ name here) today.
Off Topic but Boston’s livestream has been offline a long time; did the police take everything?
What about Russ Feingold as a write-in. I haven’t heard him mentioned lately – has he been forgotten? I have reservations about Elizabeth Warren. There’s something about her that bothers me but I’m not sure what it is. Just my intuition.
I’m all for that, Russ Feingold since he is not currently employed by the PTB would probably be a good choice. Plus fine Gold as in tax the Rich(fairly of course) has a bit of 99% to it.
actually he does not advocate just printing money.
Every elected official is supposed to represent %100 of the people they represent. Voting is not a bipartisan decision – governing is.
If everyone does what they are supposed to then I am very happy.
Tax repatriation = Another More Money for Rich Bastards program == guaranteed to pass, and for politicians to insist it will result in jobs, even though it never has.
Tax cuts for corporations == same thing.
Social Security pension and Medicare/Medicaid health insurance cuts == same thing.
I’m siding with #ows.
Lets vote the Bums out and this time elect actual bums. I work with some of the homeless and they seem more democratic and willing to serve the common good than
mostall of the establishment polswhat bugged me the most about all the Steve Jobs eulogizing is it was just left unsaid that all his supposed revolutionary copycat products are not made in the US.
Another thing to keep in mind is that there are only a limited number of companies with expertise to handle projects like bridges. Some of them might not even bring on new workers but use their existing crews.
And can we say GRAFT. I know in California a lot of work is down by the state. And in other areas its contracted out. And the companies make money by padding and taking their time. So a $4 million project ends up costing $6 million
The town I went to college in had a good racket. The company paid to fix shit never fixed anything. They would just throw down some asphalt. After winter and spring rains the street would be just as bad as before and they would have to come out again.
At least with something like fixing schools there are any number of capable contractors in most areas. And speaking of schools…seems like we need some new ones. Maybe I have just not seen them but during the housing boom i never saw new schools going up in or around these developments. When I was a kid the schools would be in the midsts of these developments. Everyone was in walking distance of one.
Your first call is correct I’m afraid; graft and corruption will dilute any stimulus spending. This is the age of the flim-flam man, it’s in our Gov, our Advertising, and our Financial system.
Even the word free has been flim-flammed as in Free Speech, Free Credit Report, Free dom Works. Nothing that is happening in Congress or the Political System is worth noting or expending brain activity on.