The Federal Reserve took no new action after its November meetings today, continuing on the same path, using some minor monetary easing and announcing that the federal funds rate will remain at its current level until at least mid-2013. Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed, who has been calling for a bigger intervention to maximize employment, bravely dissented from the left, becoming the first FOMC member to do so since 2007.
But the bigger set of data, what makes the Fed’s continued path look woefully inadequate, consists of their revised economic growth forecast:
The Fed predicted that the economy would expand between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent in 2012, and between 3 percent and 3.5 percent in 2013. Both ranges are significantly lower than its last projections, made in June.
The Fed also predicted that the rate of unemployment would remain above 8.5 percent at the end of 2012, and above 7.8 percent at the end of 2013.
These forecasts, published four times a year, do not have a particularly good track record, but they do offer a window on the state of the policy makers’ minds. In a word: Glum.
But not glum enough to do anything about it!
Calculated Risk has the full numbers in a chart. The unemployment rate is projected at 9.0 to 9.1% by the end of this year, 8.5 to 8.7% by the end of 2012, 7.8 to 8.2% by the end of 2013, and 6.8 to 7.7%, still high, by the end of 2014. And inflation is projected at below 2%, below the target, for all four of those years. The Fed continues to fail at both its mandates.
I agree with Matt Yglesias here. The current path of growth would be fine if it were the mid-1980s or something, and the economy was just sort of humming along. There would be jobs for those who needed them and trend growth would be at around the normal rate. But these are not ordinary times. 14 million people are out of work, and if you’re over 40 and you lose your job, you can expect debilitating long-term unemployment. This is not a time for moderate growth. It’s a time to do something big to get millions of Americans back to work, to catch up to the trend growth predicted from before the crisis. The chart at the top is the most important one there is. The gap between trend growth and real growth means that millions of American lives are suffering needlessly.
Matt adds:
My view is that means we need to be aiming for a period of rapid catch-up growth to reduce unemployment and restore the economy to full capacity. But the FOMC meekly “anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.” If the unemployment rate is not currently at a level consistent with the mandate and is also not converging rapidly toward a level consistent with the mandate, then in my view the FOMC ought to do something new and dramatic in order to fulfill its mandate. Instead, the FOMC is standing pat. They think 9.1 percent unemployment and moderate growth is fine and they don’t intend to do anything about it.
Nor does Congress.





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Why on earth would corporations hire anyone? They have tons of cash and can use it to pay huge salaries and bonuses to upper management and still have money left to pay dividends and even buy back some stock. Every politician in DC is trying to cut their tax rate from 35 to 25%, the Federal Reserve have interest rates at zero so borrowing any new money is basically free and nobody in DC is talking about raising tax rates while unemployment is high … so all those outrages management salaries and bonuses won’t take any additional tax hit, and finally with unemployment high labor has no leverage to ask for higher wages.
It seems to me that keeping unemployment high is the best possible business strategy … it’s win win win win.
Now David, You know that all those jobs are just sitting there waiting for people to come along and pick them up.
The fed has a mandate to maintain price stability (inflation). They also are supposed to promote full employment. But there is this thing called NAIRU which says that unemployment below some level will cause inflation. The problem here is that too many mainstream economists are not willing to reduce unemployment rapidly for fear of inflation. They adhere to some mythical “natural” rate of unemployment. In fact, once the economy starts to recover there will ineveitably be some inflation. I fear we may be trapped in high unemployment for many years due to fed inaction (or policies designed to maintain the natural rate of unemployment) and a congress unwilling to act boldly enough plus a public fearful of any inflation at all even from supply shocks like oil and food. Bad karma.
WTF do most econs know anyway? A bunch of over paid lazy ass retards.
I’ve thought for some time that the PTB just don’t NEED American labor anymore…or really the rest of the American population. They don’t need our votes, that’s for sure. they just demagogue until they get in office and lower the boom.
They don’t need us to work; they want the pensions, 401k’s and our teensy tiny bit of health care left and, of course, Social Security really badly.
Just think how many engines of war THAT little nest egg would buy!
We’re in WWIII and nobody bothered to inform the useless, disregarded people of this country
They’ve imported talent for the higher paying jobs with HB1 visas and illegal immigration for the low end jobs.
Now we have Occupy. It looks like Oakland my have had a few agents provateurs last night when the shit hit the fan:
So? What’s next? I had my first real verbal fight ( which I didn’t pick) with an Obamabot the other night. He was as bad as a rightie….but sure didn’t want a Republican prez. The newly come to politics are frighteningly angry and don’t know how to get their points across
Don’t worry I gave back better than I got.
So what are we now? The herd to be culled? As they say, all the cards are on the table.
Taxation without representation is what we’ve got along with tones of thievery from “both sides” of the aisle
Don’t forget the tax holiday they’re trying to get passed.
We are a nation of 46 million living in poverty. There is an article on HP just now about concentrated poverty and the helplessness that comes with it. Is it any wonder there is an OWS or people willing to go to violence? We simply do not have leaders who are trying to help us. They have been pre-empted by money and the intellectual elite who keep feeding them bullshit, like inflation and NAIRU and deficits and balanced budgets. And to some extent we all buy into it to our own destruction.
And they will. never doubt the elite get what they want.
Am I the only one pissed about
John and condi: sittin in a tree…..
http://roadblues-kitty.blogspot.com/
I turned it off.
Right. But I think there’s a further diabolical plan in the works. Israel is planning a preemptive attack on Iran, backed by Britain and the USA. Here comes WWIII, this is the employment plan the 1% are looking for. Sweep all the Occupy protestors up and the unemployed in general into a draft, use them as cannon fodder, war would also enable the government to raise taxes on all of us and silence dissent in the name of unity and patriotism. They could dispense with democracy, revive the Alien and Sedition act and finish the implementation of fascism begun in the Reagan era. Or earlier..many in the ruling class still think WWII is what ended the Great Depression and of course it created our militaristic empire and the wealth and power of the 1%. That is the cure for endless unemployment and the collapse of western economies they have in mind.
Yes we are the herd to be culled. They don’t need us, we are a problem, especially now that we are protesting and creating inconveniences for the 1%. WWIII is in the making big time, Israel planning to preemptively attack Iran with our government’s support. This works in many ways for the 1% and it’s government. It will sweep the unemployed into the military via a revived draft, so they can become cannon fodder. It would enable the president to impose taxes on everyone, but mostly us, stimulate the near dead western economies in a massive crusade against uppity Muslims, create unity by force here at home. Patriotism would be mandatory, dissent punishable by prison time. No more democracy, long viewed by the 1% as an extreme inconvenience. Baby boomers like me are being exterminated by cuts to our income and health care, youth will be exterminated by war, and all unemployed would be swept away in a tidal wave of militarism and fascist repression by our gestapo, Homeland Security. It’s all in place, it’s going to happen. My advice is flee now while you still can if you can. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Tonga…any place that is likely to remain neutral. That’s my advice to my son, but he’s not taking it. He believes Obama will save us all like the second coming of Christ.
Perhaps it is time to force the 1% to share some of the Iraq booty with the 99% who paid taxes to pay for the “oil rigs” that secured that booty?
The problem of elite solidarity has only two solutions:
1. violent uprising
2. mass strikes
Other “options” are just bed-wetting
The bitch is on the cover of Time or Newsweek can’t remember which one. It was all I could do to keep from writing “war criminal” on it but I was with the wife and I’m sure she would not approve of my childish act.
What the Fed and the government are doing (or more specifically not doing) re: unemployment is like someone sitting on their deck enjoying a second cup of coffee while two doors down a neighbor’s house is ablaze.
“Sucks to be you” they say, while finishing up the sports page.
WAR is a racket. It always has been.
It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one
international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the
losses in lives.
A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of
the people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit
of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge
fortunes.
From War is a Racket, 1935.
Maj. Gen. Smedley D. Butler, USMC
Winner of the Medal of Honor, twice.
Full text available online in various formats.
When does the jargon become unhelpful?
minor monetary easing: that means printing more money, right?
federal funds rate: that means more fuel for speculator fire, right? More free and easy money for the well connected?
I’m still on the steep incline of learning about these things so maybe I am getting confused? Can we skip the jargon as much as possible, you know, bring it down to real world level of communicating information?
This is not a dig at anyone.
Don’t forget Jon Stewart has to play by certain rules. He has had Rumsfeld and other criminals on his show and asked them softball questions. He doesn’t show them the same toughness he displayed when interviewing Jim Kramer.
Meanwhile, talleyrands Geithner and Obama are in France making sure the US hedgefunds and banksters do not take a haircut on their credit-default-swaps should Greece default. The US banksters overcooked the books — there’s not enough money printed in all the world today to pay out the credit that a Greek default would trigger; so, the banksters are holding the eurozone governments hostage.
All the funds from the bailout go to the banksters holding the debt that they themselves contrived, not to Greece.
Yet, the Greek 99% has to pay for the excesses of the US banksters. Goldmint Sux rules the world.
Even with the GOP, its supporters and financiers doing everything within their power – intentionally and accidentally – to “derail” each of their prospective Presidential candidates, it’s information such as in the Fed’s growth report that telegraphs the potential that Obama will be the LBJ of 2012.