Now that the troika – the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – has manhandled the Greek political system, they will probably turn their attentions to Italy. Despite the deal reached a couple weeks ago to “save the euro,” Italian bond spreads (the difference between German and Italian bond rates) keep rising. While nowhere near Greece’s spreads, borrowing costs for Italy are now at a record high since adoption of the euro. And far from a peripheral country like Greece, Italy is the third-largest in the EU, a member of the Group of 8.
The whole point of forcing a solution on Greece was to stop “contagion,” the spread of the borrowing difficulties, to the bigger countries in Europe like Italy and Spain. Italy’s experience shows this is not working. From the New York Times:
The yield on 10-year Italian notes has surpassed that on Spanish debt by nearly a full percentage point, reaching 6.51 percent on Monday after leaders at a meeting last week of the Group of 20 nations failed to come up with details on how to stop the European crisis from spreading. The rising yield is troubling because once the interest rates on the debt of Greece and Portugal surpassed 7 percent they shot up far higher, requiring those countries to turn to outside sources of financing. Rates on their debt remain in double digits.
At the end of last month, Italy issued 3 billion euros worth of bonds at an interest rate of more than 6 percent, about 1.5 percentage points higher than it had had to pay as recently as the summer. The extra bond yields are adding as much as 3 billion euros (about $4.1 billion ) annually in additional interest payments, estimates Tobias Blattner, a former economist at the European Central Bank who is an economist at Daiwa Securities in London.
Analysts are concerned that if interest rates on Italian debt keep rising, the country may no longer be able to afford to borrow on the open markets and instead would have to turn to official lenders like the European Union or the International Monetary Fund.
The latest rate “is a warning,” said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Seven percent would be a point of no return.”
The European Central Bank had been buying up Italian and Spanish debt, and this held down the numbers for a while, but that has ended. So when all you have is a hammer of austerity, every sovereign citizenry looks like a nail. So the solution for the troika, predictably, is that Italy needs to reduce their borrowing costs and show “seriousness” to the markets through another round of cuts.
And this has led to a political crisis in Italy, featuring one of my favorite world leaders, Silvio Berlusconi.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi struggled to hold on to power and prove he can implement austerity measures pledged to European Union allies as reports of his imminent resignation sent Italian stocks surging.
News agency Ansa said Berlusconi denied a report by Giuliano Ferrara, his former spokesman and editor of newspaper Il Foglio, who wrote today that the premier would step down “within hours.” Berlusconi will likely resign next week in return for support in a vote on the austerity and economic- growth measures, Ferrara said in a phone interview after his initial report.
“It’s very urgent” for Italy to pass the measures, Ferrara said. “Berlusconi should ask for a confidence vote to do that and then he should step down and ask for elections.”
We know there will be a confidence vote tied to austerity, but Berlusconi may not have a majority in Parliament by then. Three members of his party have defected to the opposition in the last week. Berlusconi only won his last confidence vote by the thinnest margin possible, with 316 of the 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies. The fact that Berlusconi is constantly in and out of criminal and civil trials over his womanizing can’t be helping matters.
In elections, Berlusconi’s party is scheduled to fail according to polling, as he is now an unpopular figure in Italy. So I’d expect the troika to get to the opposition, a coalition of leftist parties, pretty quickly, and force them to knuckle under to austerity. It’s the European way. Even France is getting in on the act. This is causing a death spiral across Europe of austerity contracting economic growth, leading to more austerity. Lather, rinse, repeat.




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At least Greece and Ohio will have company.
Meanwhile CBS, WSJ, Fox, MSNBC – Morning Joe, CNN http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/07/news/economy/wealth_gap_age/ are pushing how evil seniors and the ARRP are about not taking a Social Security cut when the “YOUNG-SENIORS-WEALTH-GAP” is so “large” – largest it has ever been -
as if the effect of saving for retirement does not increase your apparent current wealth, and as if the large savings of the wealthy old does not skew the numbers to confuse the real issue -
Namely the wealthy, be they old enough or not to qualify as Seniors – are at war with the not wealthy and refuse to pay a fair share of taxes.
This moron will wish he just has sex scandals now – italians may put up with rape and abuse of women and power, but now we’re talking about their own pocketbooks, budgets, and families.
IMHO, italians get what they deserve for having such deviant scum as a leader – he doesn’t care about anyone but himself yet he has enjoyed popular support.
in the mean time;
really, how is it progressvie sites are still lobbying to get this guy elected?
Its worse than that – not only do the wealthy refuse to pay their share, they insist on stealing from the rest of us and they use their clout to continue to skew the playing field in to their advantage.
They will take even MORE AND MORE!
I will give some of those sites the benefit of the doubt, we have no other real choice at this time, do we?
I am not saying they are right!
But then theirs sites like the evil orange place where a repug got out of the army, found out that party didn’t give a damn what he thought/said, and he decided to become a “progressive” blogger.
Now he uses that superblog status to promote chimpy’s third term via obama.
Bunga-bunga!
The banksters remind me of the Borg in Star Trek, marauding from county to country, extracting anything of value.
Next stop after Italy, Spain, then on to Portugal, then the big enchiladas of Europe, France and Germany. If France and Germany think they are exempt from the banksters, since they think they are running the show, I have news for them the banksters will turn on you in a New York second.
The banksters will not stop until they are nationalized and all the present banksters transferred to the nearest jail. They can not be allowed to walk free anymore.
In 2012 we need to think only of our country. It’s going to feel very strange for me not to vote for the Dem as I always have. If the Rs pick Romney, I will write in someone, but if the pick one of the real loonies I’ll have to think about it again. The Supreme Court worries me a lot.
all part of the plan. greece no longer a sovereign state. next up italy and so on. welcome to a world run by central planners accountable to nobody.
A bit misleading (but I agree about not re-electing Obama until/if he changes) – the quote is:
“The largest banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, earned $34 billion in profit in the first half of the year, nearly matching what they earned in the same period in 2007 and more than in the same period of any other year.
Securities firms — the trading arms of big banks and hundreds of other independent firms — have fared even better. They’ve generated at least $83 billion in profit during the past 2 1/2 years, compared with $77 billion during the entire Bush administration, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.”
The banks ARE NOT EARNING MORE IN 30 MONTHS THAN UNDER BUSH – they are rebuilding capital so as to stay in business after losing all capital built up over the last 100 years – and the rate at which they are building capital is not actually fast enough to fuel a strong recovery, plus the “good earnings comparison is not to all 8 years of the Bush administration” for the banks earnings.
On the other hand hedge funds and investment banks – the fellows that caused the reduced loan standards, developed and sold the bad mortgage back securities and derivatives – are doing just fine under Obama – except they want more – they want “Rule of law” – BUT ONLY AGAINST NON-HEDGE FUNDS AND INVESTMENT BANKS – so that the mortgage backed securities they all picked up 10 months ago at 30 cents on a dollar will be worth 100 cents on the dollar by stealing the shareholder equity that is being rebuilt in the banks. They developed and pushed for MERS and now want MERS to be a reason to put back at 100 cents on the dollar all those 30 cent investments.
The Left might not take a dive thats the EU worry and if they take a dive in Italy Spain would be next all we need is one country to either tax the rich more or leave the Euro and we win. As Greece’s economy goes down as we expect thanks to these cuts cutting consumer spending the odds go up.
The EU needs to force all their debt ridden countries to force cuts at once before Greece’s economy starts going down.
The Powers that be in Italy, Spain etc don’t want to risk Greece revolting and revolt spreading to their countries which is more likely to happen after cuts destroy the Greek economy.
Right now the EU is hoping that the business cycle magically picks up somehow they are like Texas Farmers who voted for Perry and didn’t believe in Global Warming.
Only they don’t believe in Keynes.
Don’t forget Highland Park, MI and Harrisburg, PA.
I agree and thanks for understanding I am not trying to justify anyone backing obama as “our only choice” and the “lesser of 2 evils”.
I can only hope that more will realize the urgency of:
1. primary challenge to obama from a REAL dem
2. progressive third party – the dems literally stand for NOTHING but more of the same.
Yes, that’s the contagion that will destroy us all, and more effectively than the European Black Death of old because this one is a pandemic.
ummmmm….
They are rebuilding capital with EARNINGS, right?
What they choose to do with those earnings (you state rebuild capital) absolutely is irrelevant to the larger point.
I will assume you are not an obamabot and mean to make a valid point, but it is totally tangent.
News agency Ansa said Berlusconi denied a report by Giuliano Ferrara, his former spokesman and editor of newspaper Il Foglio, who wrote today that the premier would step down “within hours.” Berlusconi will likely resign next week in return for support in a vote on the austerity and economic- growth measures, Ferrara said in a phone interview after his initial report.
“It’s very urgent” for Italy to pass the measures, Ferrara said. “Berlusconi should ask for a confidence vote to do that and then he should step down and ask for elections.”
so basically what he is saying is the politicians should pass the austerity measure and then there should be elections. What are the elections for if the politicians standing for the election already passed teh austerity measure. this is just so beyond crazy and the fact that it is reported as if it makes perfect sense is crazy. same in greece interim govt will support austerity and then have an election. based on what? what choices do the people get. used to be that the opposition party could at least pretend to run on ‘ we did not vote for that”
Uh can we trust those numbers sure banks and business after the banking crisis invested overseas after the banks failed but it takes time to build factories much less pay back the money to build the factories. It takes time for workers to make enough money to buy stuff. Many of these factories are helping overseas economies but a factory in China making Ipods does not pay enough for the workers to buy ipods.
Has America stopped being the biggest consumer of goods? If we don’t buy stuff then who in this economy has increased their buying so much that it justifies the banks and corporate profits?
I’m not giving the any benefit of doubt, they are in one of two camps;
1) they are on the payroll of the party and the party is paying for re-election of obama
or
2) cognitive dissonance, the very same thing we accused republicans of when bush was running
I know many of the friends of mine who still support obama ave cognitive dissonance, most progressive bloggers on the other hand I think are more likely bought off
So trying to understand…If Greece or Italy go democratic and bail on the EU then the 50% “haircut” that is being proposed becomes a 100% loss? Is that what you are predicting. We win then because rich people will actually lose money?
If those earnings are funny as I point out in my last comment those earnings are as safe as hopes that Greece would pay off its debts before the banking crisis.
Yes either they face rebellion and lose all their cash or they tax the rich more keep spending on Social programs which gives regular people money and in the short term hurts the banks profits but in the long run saves the economy.
What happens to American jobs if many educated EU country worker’s suddenly become much lower wage workers? More Outsourcing.
What happens if Apple can’t sell as many ipods to the EU as they used to if Greece, Spain, Italy etc workers can’t afford to buy ipods?
What happens to higher wage workers in the EU in France and Germany if they have to compete against Greek, Spain etc workers low cost goods and they can’t protect them with tariffs because those countries are part of the EU?
Less Ipods etc less American goods sold to the EU. So yes we win if Greek workers keep their benefits and can keep spending.
And I respect your point and I don’t actually want to give them the benefit of the doubt either, but if I do…
I think you are right – the superblogs are mostly just another version of atrios’ 101st keyboarding brigade – pounding the keyboards and perhaps donating money.
But the “new” boss they promote is the same as the “old”.
You are probably spot-on.
It should be a GIVEN to everyone that the same institutions that defrauded 99 percent of us and the global economy cannot be trusted to give us good numbers either.
I agree with your skepticism 100 percent – all the more reason to nationalize all banks.
Both explanations are at work however FDL certainly is not in the reelect Obama camp and as people keep on increasingly not watch the news they turn to the net for the news and as they get sick of pro Obama news they come here.
We are the vanguard of the revolution:)
The problem I see in your reply is that you appear to be assuming the same econmic system that created this mess somehow will clean it up.
Everything most think they know about “supply”, “demand”, and “free markets” is a lie.
Obviously, the 1 percent don’t give a damn on how many iPods I buy. They have found other ways to steal from the masses.
There is growing setiment obama is a problem at the evil orange site. I joined for a while, but then got tired of the abuse dumped on me for pointing out facts (and I NEVER directly criticized obama there).
So repug-faux dem markos built in a “mojo” rating so that obamabots could abuse everyone else.
He is just a repug in sheeps clothing and the insanity of some of the pro-obama posts is often just to “in-your-face” to ignore.
Believe it or not, someone had a thread a few weeks ago on how GREAT it was to have his approval rating fall to below 50 percent! This was GOOD NEWS that proved he was going to trounce repugs!
This would of course mean the 1% would lose billions in paper assets :) They would lose even more if we tax the rich more to keep our social spending at current levels never mind create jobs and save homes to avoid a revolt.
Of course they could end both wars and cut military spending to twice what China does. Never let it be said the Lake is short of ideas.
Invest in Green power jobs and we cut demand for oil. If every American car was a GM volt and we had government work to lower the price would Iran have money for its nuclear program?
Would Al Quieda have money from rich oil country Arabs? Would we need any troops to fight overseas?
But the smart money says the Greek people are screwed correct? Democracy won’t prevail and the yacht owners will just stay offshore
till the riots abate. I’m not seeing much hope here and I was hoping you could help a starving cockeyed optimist.
We have many choices other than electing the lesser of two evils. We can withhold our vote and join the Occupy movement to demand change by not supporting a corrupt system, we can vote for a third party to show our solidarity with progressive ideals, we (could have) worked toward increasing the call for a primary challenger to Obama.
This false presumption that we have no choice is borne out of an ideology that only the next election matters. If you look at a timeline of more than two years you will see that a long-term view demands we take action against Obama and a Democratic party that is owned by the 1%; that no change will come by electing the lesser of two evils; that it is our duty as citizens to stand up to corruption by fighting it, not endorsing it with our votes.
What do you want the world to look like in twenty years? Do you still want to be voting for the lesser of two evils at that time? If not, what can you do now to change the system? Sometimes the house is too old, too termite infested, too water damaged to save it. Sometimes you have to raze the structure, build a new foundation and start a life in a new house that will protect you from the elements. If you want the Occupy movement to mean something, your only choice is to withhold your vote from the Democrats who put us in this position.
I can’t think of a worse reason for voting than fear of the opposition. Our country was not founded on fear. Let’s live up to the high ideals of our founding fathers and stop playing this game called “pragmatism.” The system must change or the United States will fail. If you don’t think that is a possibility then you have not been paying attention to history. Romney and Obama are insignificant players in this 250 year old play and will be long forgotten soon enough. The importance of Obama’s reelection in the larger scheme of things is overblown and we can survive a Romney or even a Perry presidency. What we can’t survive is the electorate sitting idly by voting for corruption instead of demanding change. A vote for Obama is a vote for the status quo and I’m not satisfied living in a world where I am oppressed by an oligarchy. Are you?
Looks like the banksters have installed a bankster as the new Prime Minister of Greece.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/07/us-greece-idUSL6E7M601O20111107
Can this economic system clean things up yes. Do they want to No. Might they want to to prevent a revolt or 100% haircuts from other countries that revolt? It depends how scared they get Arab Spring will spread to the EU.
This economic system is a bunch of gamblers betting with money they all don’t have as soon as someone big leaves the table and wants to get paid the game is over and they all have to admit they don’t have the money to pay him.
It should be noted that 17% of the IMF bailout money comes from the U.S. taxpayer, who has already bailed out European states to the tune of $54 billion.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704760604577011852238080484.html?mod=BOL_twm_col#articleTabs%3Darticle
It should also be pointed out that the U.S. pols are actually protecting the Wall Street banks who insured against Euro sovereign default. So it wasn’t enough that the American taxpayer bailed out Wall Street in 2008. Now we have bailed out Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal to protect Wall Street. And the big problems are just surfacing now in major economies like Italy. What has been taken from us so far is chump change compared to what an Italian bailout will cost us.
Good thing we have so much excess American taxpayer money laying around and our government isn’t trying to austeritize us.
I totally agree, the next six months are critical to developing a
plan to empower the 99% who are willing to let the majority rule.
If the polls have been close to representing what the majority want
we would have no wars, single payer, and entitlement would not have a pejorative meaning. I heard that OWS was planning on having a convention in Philadelphia next year with representatives from every OWS encampment. Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, et al should be with us or against us before the primaries.
so basically what he is saying is the politicians should pass the austerity measure and then there should be elections. What are the elections for if the politicians standing for the election already passed teh austerity measure. this is just so beyond crazy
They want lame duck pols with nothing to lose to pass the cuts while they still have a chance to win. They want the incoming Lefties to like Jimmy Carter get stuck with cleaning up the mess and for a Reagan to come in later and do more cuts.
They hope the Left won’t kill the deal. But even if a deal passes the Left might still kill the deal if the Greeks rebel the Left in Italy might be bought off just like our Left but they still want to lead their country they don’t want a French Revolution.
An EU wide French Revolution is what the EU faces as my comment at 22 points out.
Of course it’s not working. A policy meant to stripmine the wealth of ordinary people and destroy the substantial safety nets of European countries never was intended to work.
What’s not working is insulating the banksters from greater risk. The more they pillage, the less there is to pillage. And the more risky becomes their position. And the shortsellers are going bubble crazy, thinking the madness will never end.
The Global Financial system is insolvent, not illiquid. So the “bailout” money is going straight down the drain.
What we haven’t REALLY done is ANYTHING about the “private profits, public debt” problem that both allowed this mess and, in fact, contributed to it. The banksters are simply “moving” all their current “risky business” into FDIC insured accounts.
Insanity spreads. It’s coming to a village near you too.
So it just keeps getting worser and worser, this has become worserious! We need a whole new Worse Word Dictionary for the coming beat down of the American people.
Please tell me if I’m wrong, but my understanding of the Italian situation is not that their debt is too high to GDP, but that it is too short and has to roll over frequently, putting the country at the mercy of the bond vigilantes. There’s no doubt a history to this, of course. Italy would have borrowed long if the rates had been more favorable, but it is not as if they are insolvent like the Greeks. This is a case where ECB support would probably actually work if it were applied in something more than homeopathic doses.
Which ones? I don’t see a lot of enthusiasm over at Kos, just mostly resignation. Booman is the only one who is moderately enthusiastic, but he is mostly resigned, too. I don’t think there is a lot of real support for Obama anywhere on the center left. The only thing he’s got working for him is that everyone else is worse. Of course, that was always his puppet masters’ plan.
You do, of course, remember the Tonkin Gulf Resolution.
Hey BarelyScumi, why don’t you pay of the Italian debt with your billions?
Minus that raked off in salaries and bonuses.
Who are you calling “we”? Our supposed representatives? I do believe that there are 3000 of “we” who have already been arrested trying to secure the right to scream about this very issue.
We need to proffer a candidate who isn’t a billionaire and doesn’t want to be one. OWS approved candidates cannot take money from corps or their buds.
Does that explain the rapid growth of the Occupy Everything movement?
The European revolt will begin in–Ohio tomorrow (we’re all interconnected now).
If you want to talk about Occupy Wall Street actions in electoral politics, you are premature. General assemblies are fighting for the space in which to have a civil society. They are a long way from figuring out how to deal with institutions other than to point out that they have failed the 99%.
What I see might emerge for electoral politics is a process that allows/forces candidates to deal directly with the 99%, talk straight, and forgo campaig n funding because the strategy will be to starve the Wall Street Media. I do not forsee general assemblies or the movement as a whole endorsing candidates. Indeed that probably would kill reform.
Occupy Wall Street is about systemic change not programmatic change. About change that allows the authentic issues, hopes, and dreams that that folks have (instead of the media-driven agendas) to get back into the actual political decisions. To have a multiplicity of agendas instead of just two(really one).
I understand the desire for systemic change and I guess what I can’t get my head around is having no one viable to vote for in 2012. Below is the list of all the Democrats, Republicans,and Independents currently holding office who have embraced the movement and been seen at an OWS encampment.
1
2
3
Please let me know if I left someone out. So it is just out of frustration that my vote or the act of voting next election will be ceremonial at best.
Likely it will be ceremonial. And if there really is not a dime’s worth of difference between the parties, that will be true all the way down the ticket.
That’s what a systemic failure is all about.
They are building capital via zero interest loans from treasury loaned back to Treasury at 2.5% – and yes that is called earnings, but some of the connotations of the word “earnings” do not apply – and how did you miss the bifurcation in the report between “securities firms” and other banks, or that the bank earnings comparison is between two short periods for banks and only “securities firms” have the “greater than 8 years of Bush in 3 years under Obama” earnings?
I will assume you are not a paid poster for the hedge funds that ripped us off, but you comment is off point.
The Chinese economy of a couple of billion folks are becoming middle class – they are buying more and more. But you are correct that exports are still a must for China as more and more come from rural to city looking for a job.
Bank lending by US banks abroad for factories abroad is not known to me, but when I was in the game the banks would hide the foreign loans, if requested, via what was called “back to back” loans so the loan for the foreign plant looked like it was coming from a local bank. So the published stats can’t be trusted. Reality often does not matter – Corzine’s MF Global bond bets that blamed for destroying MF Global are all in the money paying interest as required – but the other hedge funds wanted to take him down – sort of like the hedge funds pushing rule of law so as to take down the big banks via mortgage put backs.
The current system after 30 years of no controls under Greenspan is out of control. Sadly Obama and the GOP agree that Liz Warren and Barney Frank’s reforms had to be a mile wide and an inch deep – watching Barney’s committee vote down, via newly elected Dem votes – Barney’s tough reform replacing it with reform light, time after time, was tiring. And now we can’t even get those reforms going because the GOP won’t allow a vote on a Director, and Obama will not call for the nuke option on the filibuster on such a vote.
I agree -
but our media helps the wealthy – as in the attack on seniors “wealth”
The nation has moved from defined benefit retirement plans – that don’t show up as wealth – to cheaper 401k plans that do. So the seniors are at the same time wealthier and worse off.
Indeed the old joke about the result of a fellow with $40 billion walking into a 39 person homeless shelter and suddenly the shelter houses 40 persons with an average wealth of $1 billion applies here. Rich old are now extremely rich old so the wealth – on average – rises for seniors.
The “we” would be our legislaturds. Sorry for any misunderstanding.