The situation in Italy is now beyond the point of repair. With debt yields above 7%, it’s a matter of time before Italy cannot afford borrwing. And there’s only one mechanism with the ability in Europe to bail them out. That’s the European Central Bank, and they have been enabling the crisis more than anything:
Far from struggling to manage a “one size fits all” monetary policy, the bank has pursued a “one size fits nobody” policy of monetary contraction, at a time when no European economy is growing strongly. With great reluctance, the bank has agreed to support the markets for European sovereign debt through purchases of government bonds. But, unlike the policy of quantitative easing pursued by the Federal Reserve — in which the United States’ central bank amassed Treasury securities to push down long-term interest rates — the European Central Bank has insisted on “sterilizing,” or neutralizing, its purchases of government bonds by selling the securities to private-sector banks. Such a policy cannot be sustained on a scale sufficient to stabilize financial markets [...]
Unlike any previous central bank in history, the bank has disclaimed any responsibility for the European financial system it effectively controls, or even for the viability of the euro as a currency. Instead, it has focused almost entirely on the formal objective of keeping inflation rates to a 2 percent target [...] If current policies are pursued, the European Central Bank will end up by destroying the euro in order to save it from (largely hypothetical) inflation.
The new ECB head, Mario Draghi, did cut interest rates, reversing one disastrous policy. But the bazooka needed now due to the collapse of Italy – thanks in part to its incompetent leadership – is not something the ECB has shown any willingness to use. Heck, they won’t even buy Italian debt without hedging it off.
And now we have Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy discussing the previously unthinkable – what amounts to a breakup of the euro.
German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve establishing a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say.
“France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels,” a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
“We need to move very cautiously, but the truth is that we need to establish exactly the list of those who don’t want to be part of the club and those who simply cannot be part,” the official said.
These are apparently “toe-in-the-water” discussions, and you’ll never see the idea articulated in public until it happens. But essentially, it would have France and Germany creating an inner ring around the euro, and making determinations about who can stay and who can go. The inner ring would have a tighter fiscal core, and the other countries would be set adrift.
So far, Merkel is only talking about “more Europe, not less Europe” in public. But this exclusive from Reuters is a key tell. The euro is done for. And while that’s probably the right move, to kill the virus before it lingers, it will take so long to unravel this wrongheaded system that a lost decade in Europe, if not the rest of the globe, is increasingly likely.
UPDATE: DeLong: “The Federal Reserve needs to buy up every single European bond owned by every single American financial institution for cash before the increase in eurorisk leads American finance to tighten credit again and send us down into the double dip.” It’s firewall time.



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Having the FED buy up all the Euro bonds from the American banks will not stop another recession (or continuation of the preset one), because when the Euro implodes, all of Europe will be in a depression. Thirty percent of the S&P 500 sales are to Europe, not mention a lot more sales from other than the S&P 500 companies.
Further more if the FED does buy up all the Euro bonds and does not extract a break up of the American banks, the American public will go batshit crazy. After all don’t think for one minute that the American Banksters didn’t have a hand in creating the mess in Europe.
The other big question is what to do about all the CDS paper that the American banksters are holding, should the Fed buy that too, with out breaking up the banks? I don’t think so.
The only way out of this is to break up the banks or nationalize them.
Bail out the fucking banks AGAIN!!!!!???????? Are you FUCKING kidding me!!!!!????????
This is just the kind of shit I’ve feared was going to happen. What is this, a White House trial balloon? Well, we best shoot that motherfucker down right fucking now.
NO AMERICAN TAXPAYER MONEY TO BAIL OUT WALL STREET AGAIN!
Not one goddamn dime.
I can’t believe they even have the audacity to suggest this. I thought they’d start throwing U.S./IMF money at Europe but maybe the crisis is already beyond that. However, for them to call for the U.S. taxpayer to BUY Wall Street’s toxic Euro bets is just astounding. The plutocrats’ arrogance is breathtaking and it shows one thing for sure: they don’t even give the Occupy Movement a second thought.
Now come on, you’re really surprised????
I really am. I shouldn’t be, but I am. Can they get away with this? Is that possible?
Gosh, and I saved all my lira and pesatas as memories of a time before the Euro. Now, I’ll be able to use them, and keep the Euros from last summer’s trip as memories.
‘Course, the way the Fed and the ECB are acting, pretty soon I’ll be able to use all of them to paper my walls.
Not with a whimper but with a bang.
Ask Henry Paulson, Tim Geitner and Ben Bernanke. They’ll say it’s not only possible, but absolutely necessary, to avoid (this week’s episode of) financial disaster.
Oh, let them. The teabaggers will be wearing their hides as coats next winter.
I was perusing the frumforum yesterday, and some right wing vet who probably works for XE now had a diary about cutting his Tri-Care bennies.
He was apoplectic and sure he belonged to the only part of society that actually earned his “entitlements”.
Just wait…
DeLong is a fucking idiot.
How will we ever afford a war with Iran?
Don’t forget to alternate your Carravagios and your Raphaels. Otherwise it just looks tacky.
“Firewall time” = “bailout time” — again.
Oh, you mean the Euros. The Renaissance & the Art Nouveau would be a good combination.
Jerk Merk and Snark Sark.
Whadda pair.
And when you add 0 to the equation…
People need to be made aware of this and maybe it riots break out in nearly every city, they will have second thoughts.
I can’t get that REM song out of my mind: “It’s the end of the Euro, and I feel fine.” Well, fine is probably not the right word, but I couldn’t think of a word that rhymes that means “not fine.”
This looming disaster could be the impetus of real sensible economic, financial, social policy, but more likely the brown shirts then the black shirts, then the red, white and blue shirts will use it as a reason to restore “order”.
Where’s that “creative destruction” that is supposed to be an essential component of capitalism? Instead, what we get is survival of the unfitest. Fail if you can’t make it on merit, make room for a better class of entrepreneurs.
I don’t think you can sweepingly call that Europe as a whole will enter into a depression as a result of this and whatever comes of it. It’ll shake things up, but I can’t see all of Europe suffering. I still think Germany will be fine, likely the Netherlands, Austria, as well as Switzerland and the northern European countries not on the Euro. France has been in the crapper for awhile. The rest, mainly Latin Europe, is already screwed. They can hit rock bottom and start to rebuild their economies. Continually trying to keep them alive in order to save the Eurozone is not working.
I have more faith the German-speaking and northern half of Europe will pull out of this fine, given their record.
Unfortunately, you are tracking too late the implosion of the Chinese real estate bubble.
Now is the time to get your survival strategy in order.
Slogans such as “creative destruction” are great tools for replacing a senile aristocracy with a younger, more robust aristocracy, but any non-aristocratic intent is purely coincidental.
Yep brad has lived in Berzerkly to long he needs to get a real job and stop collecting my Calif. tax money. Oh right I’m collecting UI until Dec then 99 are over.
I won’t be suprised if crazy ben and little timmy do just that with 0 blessing because we all know that most of what is owed is to Amerika bankster. Yep once again nothing for Main Street even from brad.
The difficulty with that scenario is that Germany moved to an export-dependent economy. If the rest of the world isn’t buying its high-priced precision goods how does it sustain itself?
The fear here is not about a global depression and the effects it would have on the populace in general. Nor is it so much about the current people in power being replaced.
NO…its about the whole power structure being replaced. It’s about protecting dynasties and the money they control.
That is the fear and motivation.
So DeLong wants the Fed to bail out American banks again, on their Euro bonds.
Joy, bliss. How bad could a bad recession truly be, if that means letting these damn banks nuke themselves if they insist on it?
I heard about this some time ago myself. If rather brushed over report from the German finance minister saying the Germany’s prosperity was mostly export driven. The other people in other countries were buying German but the German people not so much.
Bail out the banks again???? That’s just brilliant. When will the people march on the banks and nationalize them and send their boards and “decision makers” to the gallows? Down with crony capitalism and up with democratic socialism.
See my comment at 24.
“The only way out of this is to break up the banks or nationalize them.”
Correct. But there is a catch 22. Governments would have to do this breaking up and/or nationalizing and governments are owned by the banks.
The situation reminds me of the joke about the farmer who won the lottery. When asked what he would do with the money he said “I guess I’ll just keep farming until it’s all gone”.
True. Even back in the ’70′s (the last time I was in Germany) the Germans by and large didn’t buy VW and Mercedes. There were lots of German Fords and Opels and Renaults. They did depend on the rest of the world buying the high-quality (and therefore high-priced) goods they produced.
Germany can focus on Canada, Australia, and BRIC countries. They may lose some of Latin Europe for awhile until they get their houses in order.
We need a mega RICO prosecution against the criminal banksters and we need to nationalize the banks, NOW!
Let the crooks and the financiers take the hit. They took the risks and they deserve to take the fall and everything that comes with it.
I trust the German government will intervene more aggressively where needed and do all it can to protect its economy, especially if the CDU loses power in Germany, unlike the US. I still have no idea where the US is heading and we’re in year 3 of this mess.
Too bad banking reform was watered down so much, we don’t even know how much exposure our banks have. But, you know, nothing like this could ever happen (again).
See my comment @24.
My parents told me that the whole purpose of the Cold War was because a war economy didn’t worry about where they money comes from. It’s a matter of life or death.
How did they “finance” the Manhattan Project? It didn’t matter if the money existed, just write the check.
War pays for itself as far as the amoral are concerned.
This is very true. Part of the prosperity of the 1950s through the 1960s was the transferring of the WWII war economy to the Cold War Economy. And of course those planes and ships and subs and tanks had to be continuously updated and replaced to “Keep Ahead of the Ruskies”.
The global economy will tank again as more bad debt has been securitized and bad bets everywhere coming due. Markets down 3.5% today the bear may have begun. Austerity is still the monetary/economic policy. The debt commission announced it needs to cut “Entitlements” homeless populations are growing with 16% of USA below the poverty level. Big carbon still holds the levers of power. The ship of state is heading south. So tighten your belts, batten down the hatches the storm is brewing.
I’m not sure that Canada and the BRIC countries will be spared a slowdown. China and Canada are experiencing a slowdown in the real estate market (which is arguably overheated in both countries). If growth slows or reverses the German export market will definitely suffer.
Obviously, we’re not talking about the same thing.
LOLOLOL
Invest in vultures.
They are definitely fly high.
“Exporters: We don’t need the euro”
Silly! The important thing is that we start the war. With properly executed fearmongering, we’ll forget all about the Bernanke / Geithner bailout. And THAT is what’s important! Continuing the war should not be a big deal. We just need to get to Nov 2012.
Another bailout. Shocking.
Apparently Jamie and Loyd feel there’s some wealth remaining in America. Tsk, tsk.
I wonder if they chastised The Divine One for his failure? Or were the MOTU kind and simply encouraged Him to correct his oversight?
“But essentially, it would have France and Germany creating an inner ring around the euro, and making determinations about who can stay and who can go. The inner ring would have a tighter fiscal core, and the other countries would be set adrift.”
Sort of like restoring the “Holy Roman Empire” of the Middle Ages, without the “Roman” part?
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7387331n&tag=contentMain;contentAux
60 minutes Abramoff did 3 years.
Abramoff and his ilk will go states evidence against 100 US Congress critters who will go states evidence against others, K street should be shutdown. We the people have been sold out to the highest bidders. The Corporate Culture and the Congressional Culture are Citizens United.
Without the southern countries the euro rises and German goods are priced out of the market.
But the southern countries get back to having a life. Still the Greeks have been sold by the Germans on the idea you get into the euro and you are in the cool guys club – and they do not want to go back and sit at a different table.
Germany’s economy is already contracting bc its export buyers in S. Europe have run out of money.
Exactly. The ways things are right now, the northern European countries are carrying the weight, the southern are struggling, they don’t have the money to buy German exports, the northern and outside countries have to keep them afloat. It’s not exactly working out great for Germany, even if their exports are cheaper now than they would be off the Euro, or on the Euro without the Latin European countries.
I think the way the northern and southern European countries are run is different. The southern can do better on their own, maybe under a monetary union among similar countries, while the north can remain in a separate monetary union. Overall, that would work out better for the northern countries and southern, as well as the rest of the world, even if the northern/German currency is higher than the Euro is currently.
Very clever!