I was on Mark Thompson’s show on Sirius XM radio on Friday, and I said at that time that there’s a better chance of Herman Cain knowing what he’s talking about on Libya than the Super Committee coming to a deal. And indeed, I will not be proven wrong. It’s clear that the Super Committee will go down to defeat as early as tomorrow, with an announcement that they could not reach agreement on a deficit reduction deal. In the end, there was no reason to reach a deal. There’s an election next year, and both sides want to use key elements to any deal in their pitch to voters; broadly speaking, Republicans want to be the party to protect your tax rates, and Democrats want to be the party to protect Medicare. Both those items were imperiled by a deal, so there could be no deal. The gentle sobbing of Erskine Bowles and Alice Rivlin and Alan Simpson and Pete Domenici will be heard across the land.
But the playing field now shifts to a host of issues. Notice how this traditional media article focuses on the consequences of Super Committee failure, as if we should all feel sorry for its demise.
The congressional committee tasked with reducing the federal deficit is poised to admit defeat as soon as Monday, and its unfinished business will set up a year-end battle over emergency jobless benefits and an expiring payroll tax holiday.
Those provisions are among a host of measures set to lapse at the end of December. During nearly three months of negotiations, the “supercommittee” had been weighing whether to extend at least some of them as part of a broader plan to shave a minimum of $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
Democrats and many economists consider particularly urgent the need to extend jobless benefits and the one-year payroll tax cut. With national unemployment stuck at 9 percent, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed at record levels, the government is providing up to 99 weeks of support to about 3.5 million people.
Meanwhile, the payroll tax cut, enacted last December, allows most American workers to keep an additional 2 percent of their earnings, a boon to tight household budgets as well as the economic recovery. Economists at J.P. Morgan Chase recently estimated that if Congress does not extend the two measures, economic growth next year could take a hit of as much as two percentage points — enough to revive fears of a recession.
There was never a guarantee that these measures would be extended in the Super Committee. All Lori Montgomery and Rosalind S. Helderman could muster is that the committee was “weighing” an extension. They were “weighing” the cut of Social Security benefits, the privatization of Medicare and an increase in taxes of up to $1 trillion, as long as you’re using that standard. None of that happened, however.
This does raise a set of key issues going forward as we reach the end of the year, however. The Super Committee is a dead letter. They are exceedingly likely not to recommend anything at all. Jon Kyl talked about the committee in the past tense on the morning shows today. It’s all over except for the finger-pointing, which will be as meaningless as it is intense.
But there are all these loose ends out there, and all of them would actually increase the deficit, just to show you what a joke fiscal responsibility has always been. First, there are the aforementioned payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits extension. Those expire at the end of the year. So do two other notable measures: the patch that avoids a cut to Medicare reimbursement for providers by over 20%, colloquially known as the “doc fix,” and the adjustment to the alternative minimum tax that helps the upper middle class avoid the additional levy. Then there are a host of other expiring tax breaks, many for businesses, that usually get lumped in and called “tax extenders.” The thumbnail cost for extending every single one of the above-mentioned items is $300 billion. By the same token, that’s the amount you would take out of the economy if you failed to extend any of these measures. And that would, as noted above, be a significant fiscal drag on the economy.
There’s one way to get around this, and it concerns the war savings from drawing down troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Democrats want to use that budget item to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, Republicans want to use it for a doc fix and an AMT patch. There’s enough money saved from the drawdown, at least on paper, to use it to do both. I could see a scenario where that gets done, despite criticism that the whole thing is largely an accounting gimmick.
But that’s not all. The longer-term fight will be over the automatic sequestration cuts, which will be triggered now that the Super Committee has failed. Half of those fall on the discretionary side of the ledger and half of them fall on defense. Super Committee members are already talking about setting aside the defense cuts, most vociferously Jon Kyl:
Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) a member of the congressional super committee charged with devising a plan to shrink the national debt, pledged on Sunday to find a way to limit the defense budget cuts that would be triggered by that committee’s likely failure.
“I can’t imagine that knowing of the importance of national defense that both Republicans and Democrats wouldn’t find a way to work through that process so that we still get the $1.2 trillion in cuts but it doesn’t all fall on defense as [Defense] Secretary [Leon] Panetta pointed out,” Kyl said on “Meet the Press.” “I think there is a way to avoid that if there is good will on both sides. And again I think when the reality sets in even those Democrat friends who would like to see more defense cuts … will find ways to work around that.”
Rather than just nullifying the cuts, the conversation has shifted to altering them, putting the cuts somewhere else. But then you get into the same problems that characterized the failure of the Super Committee. And unlike that process, any changes to the trigger will have to go through regular order, with the prospect of filibusters and amendments. So while it does appear that there’s a broad consensus over avoiding the defense cuts, with no consensus over what takes its place, and an election year coming up, I wouldn’t say there’s a guarantee that the cuts are avoided. Indeed, Democrats believe they have the upper hand in these negotiations, because they aren’t as concerned about the defense cuts being triggered.
That issue will play out over the course of a year. The $300 billion in extenders will play out in a tight time frame of less than a month and a half (though some of the tax changes could be patched retroactively). And Congress hasn’t displayed much of an appetite for agreement this year.




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Any word if those adventures achieved their noble objectives? Never mind, it doesn’t matter.
Jon Kyl: “I can’t imagine that knowing of the importance of national defense…”
Refresh my memory Jon. What is the importance? Is it that the terrorists still hate us for our freedums?
If Democrats and Republicans can’t put partisanship aside to agree on throwing young people and the elderly under the bus, it’s a damning commentary on the state of politics in this country.
Good thing that David Broder didn’t have to live and see this.
Fixed the headline. Had to do it for msnbc too.
Winner!
I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Republicans on the committee from stopping Kerry, Baucus, etc. from cutting my Social Security and Medicare. Their willingness to do so is the reason I will be occupying a 3rd Party in 2012.
No one saw that coming.
O has shifted his attention to war with China in SE Asia & central Africa.
He’s assuming that war against Islam will be wrapped up as soon as Saudi, Turkish, Mossad, MEK, CIA other usual suspects, topple the Syrian & Iranian regimes. But those just require a few agents & proxy wars and will soon be history.
So O is once again looking forward. China has been dancing rings around U.S. since it has occupied Iraq & Afghanistan. Time to shift focus.
It will be interesting to watch the USG rhetoric heat up against China.
I second that. The GOP stopped the “bipartisan” Dems from destroying Medicare and Social Security.
All those concessions for nothing.
And Obama doesn’t get his “grand bargain”. What a shame. He’s the one who is absolutely 100 percent pissed off.
I got a notice this past week that I’m getting a raise in my Social Security – $29.00. I feel like such a welfare slut. s/
Republicans have needed a dic fix for a long time. Glad to see they are finally getting around to it.
0 may hit a speed bump if he gets too ambitious with regards to Iran. China and Russia aren’t likely to sit on their thumbs if Iran is attacked.
But wait, China isn’t a threat. The pizza man said so, didn’t he?
Sucking off the government’s teet, as Alan Simpson might say.
In reality, Alan is one of the biggest government sluts of all time.
Hey, it’s half a tank of gas. You earned it, so enjoy it. If they keep up with the payroll tax cuts, folks down the pike won’t be so fortunate.
Sorry David but you haven’t heard the last from this conclave of oligarchic enablers.
Just as with the original, failed catfood commission the pathetically putrid ponderings of these craven cronies will be thrown in the faces of the 99% time and again as “what must be done!”
If the Super Committee is going to be buried, I would certainly like to attend the funeral. I want to make sure it’s dead.
Time for Mark Warner and his gang of thirty-six to Go Big.
Why destroy the country slowly when you can do it fast?
The overt attacks against Iran are Stuxnet, the Mossad/MEK explosions on military site near Teheran and the Saudi/Turkey/other usual suspects spurring on the Syrian “uprising.”
Dontcha see the plan? It’s so simple. The CIA secrete proxy war ops have worked so well in the past O is doubling down.
Dated 9/15?
Love the Supercommittee mug shots, I must say. Token woman, token black, token Hispanic, 9 RWMs. Talk about transparency.
Ah, well absorb the new spin. You are supposed to want to work until you are 80 just as 10 year olds are supposed to want to replace the janitors at their elementary school. You don’t want vacations, holidays or healthcare either. But war, that you want. War will defend you, from God knows what – obviously it’s not intended to defend your quality of life.
Democrat Mark Warner: “Frankly, that’s not nearly bold enough to truly fix our nation’s balance sheet.”
A good bold move would be to cut US Senate salaries to the median US wage.
I haven’t followed the Super Committee’s machinations too closely, but might it be said that the Dems failure to agree with the Super Committee Repugs is one of the few good things that the Dems have done in the age of Obama?
If the Dems did a good thing it was completely by accident.
War is the new normal, if you haven’t been watching over the past decade. How the flying hell did the U.S. get to be that depraved. (Rhetorical Q)
Warner’s been chomping at the bit for two months.
But maybe we ought to emailed thanks to them anyhow.
I’m thinking next time I get the cspan emails on the recent votes, when it is easy to send emails, I’ll just click on the buttons & thank them all for not taking a principled stand against SS, MC (all my reps are Ds), so that the Rs preserved them.
Maybe too well. Grade schoolers in Russia know the script. 0 can fiddle with his drone joystick all he wants, but a venture in Iran though may invoke a Russian response.
I figured, but it’s too late for this year.
Anyone in VA should encourage Warner to take an even stronger stand about cutting SDS, MC next year, so the Rs will oppose him & save the programs.
Oh, yes, tonight our local news lead with yet another glorious return of a National Guard guy from his 3rd deployment right in the middle of an NFL game. Oh, the cuteness of his blond wife and kid. War is so cuddly. I mean no disrespect to the soldier. He’s just being used as a product. Risk your life and your kid gets to go to a Vikings game. What a deal.
Warner is ginning up for 2016. I won’t vote for him either.
Read allan’s link @17 to see what the good Dems are up to.
Priceless.
snip
Doesn’t surprise me a bit.
But Russia (if indeed that where the attack “reportedly” (i.e., no source) arose) should concentrate on Israel, which controls U.S.
I’ll volunteer and answer to your rhetorical question. The U.S. got to be so depraved because it allowed a group of mobsters to knock off its elected leader and get away with it.
I’ll bet the Russian cybergeeks can shut Israel down with the flick of a switch.
Much of the Catfood Commission’s task centered on Medicare and Medicaid costs, but the SCOTUS decision to hear and rule on the ACA next year made it impossible to recommend anything.
Whozzat?
So why doesn’t Russia do that? Retaliation fears? Need to save up the good stuff for when it’s really needed? Inquiring minds…
The smoking laptop, a Mossad creation in all likelihood, was so laughingly incompetent, it seems like Israeli retaliation is a long shot.
Though, OTOH, Stuxnet (not that I know a lot about it) seems like no joke.
No because “we” eat French Fries and drink French wine.
Your reasoning is impeccable and therefore highly unlikely to characterize Supercom.
You’re so frigging behind the times. Sark is U.S. BFF.
The short version of U.S. foreign policy is that it’s friends become its enemies and its enemies become its friends. You are a cycle behind.
Not sure how you give an indecent proposal and process a “decent” burial. Perhaps Obama will wake up and understand he has his money on the wrong pony.
Or maybe not.
>>A good bold move would be to cut US Senate salaries to the median US wage.
Hell cut it to minimum wage. Or better yet, replace those old corporatists with 10 year-olds!
Sucking off the government’s
teettit, as Alan Simpson might say… Remember?And this is why I doubt your [D Day's] remark
Jon Kyle what an asshole. This guy is retiring with $180,000.00 pension and lifetime health benefits. I don’t even want to hear what this guy has to say about anything.
Saw that tonite Greenbell. Wanted to throw up. Remember these guys volunteered for active duty. My father fought in World War II a war where the aggression was aimed at us. He had to fight and he didn’t get any special treatment or hurrahs and no one paid his bills while he was gone. If it wasn’t for those guys who fought against Hitler we would all be speaking German today.
did you check the increased out of pocket premium and deductible under Medicare – net/net it seems like a decrease for many folks.
“But Russia (if indeed that where the attack “reportedly” (i.e., no source) arose) should concentrate on Israel, which controls U.S.”
no – that thought is just another fake enemy suggested by the rich and corporate and their legacy kids that want to take the heat off themselves about the control of the US government and economy that the 1% has.
you have to look at everything lawmakers and politicians do through your skepticism glasses! This whole Super Committee bull was concocted so that both sides could get cuts that satisfied the bond markets without having to get 60 votes in the Senate and that later on could be used by both sides in an election year to motivate their base. Republicans will accuse Democrats of gutting defense and jeopardizing our national security and Dems will accuse Republicans of trying to eliminate the social safety net to save the rich from being taxed fairly. Remember, none of these cuts takes effect until after the election. These guys are just punting these issues to the voters so they can blame them for either the draconian cuts or increase in taxes that’s coming after the election, depending on who can credibly claim a mandate.