The death of Kim Jong-il comes just as the United States was about to re-engage with North Korea, a plan now thrown into doubt because of the succession to Kim Jong-un.
Hours before Kim’s death, news leaked about an imminent large grain shipment to North Korea, seen as an olive branch to restart talks on the country’s nuclear program.
The United States is poised to announce a significant donation of food aid to North Korea this week, the first concrete accomplishment after months of behind-the-scenes diplomatic contacts between the two wartime enemies. An agreement by North Korea to suspend its controversial uranium enrichment program will likely follow within days.
A broad outline of the emerging agreement has been made known to The Associated Press by people close to the negotiations.
Discussions have been taking place since summer in New York, Geneva and Beijing. They have already yielded agreements by North Korea to suspend nuclear and ballistic missile testing, readmit international nuclear inspectors expelled in 2009, and resume a dialogue between North Korea and South Korea, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitivity of the negotiations.
In this sense, the timing of the elder Kim’s death could not have been worse. As a result, the US is likely to keep a wary eye on the situation, rather than make the scheduled announcement. The US has not provided food aid to North Korea in three years.
Kim Jong-un, 27, the youngest son of the late dictator, has been called “The Great Successor” on state run TV and will direct the funeral for his father. Both of these suggest he will become the new dictator, rather than his two elder playboy sons. Like most of the Kim family, little is known about Kim Jong-un; the world did not know what he looked like until 2010. So far, Kim Jong-un appears to be in control, but given the closed nature of North Korean society it’s impossible to know. But since Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in 2008, he has been preparing the elite class of the country for his youngest son to succeed him.
It’s possible that the son will honor his father’s deals. It’s also possible that he knew nothing about this effort that the US could have potentially announced today, along with upcoming six-party talks. So because of the leader’s death, that deal will in all likelihood go into hibernation. Months of diplomacy go to waste. And the North Korean people continue to suffer. I recognize that, in this chaotic state, going ahead with the food aid would have meant risking that it all got locked away in storehouses away from the intended target. It is still a terrible bit of timing.




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Re-re-re-re-engaging NK has become a bad habit.
Instead of the US sending the shipment, perhaps SK might casually mention pulling the standing indictments of NK leaders off the shelf for “editing” as their titles update and change.
Being a bit of an officianado on North Korea, myself, I feel the new regime of Kim Jong-Un will certtainly either be a bad thing or a good thing. Then again, things could just stay the way they are.
The reasonable thing to do would be to proceed with the grain shipment as a gesture of goodwill, but reasonable and US foreign policy don’t belong in the same sentence.
My Prediction: No change at all. The generals won’t permit compromise on Nukes and certainly ObamaLLP is not up to taking advantage of this to improve things.
Boxturtle (If it can’t be done with drones, it can’t be done as far as Obama is concerned)
That was my thought. In the great scheme of things, a freighter full of grain is nothing to the strategic balance but might make a real difference in attitude.
Boxturtle (And I still think offering a “let’s talk” meeting is a good idea, too)
I strongly disagree with your point of view.
Exactly. If this was truly a goodwill gesture — hint to the State Department: “goodwill gestures” don’t have strings attached — then the US should go through with it. The only reason we wouldn’t would be because the DoS folk and/or Obama are afraid that the Republicans will call them icky names if they do.
They might accuse them of turning the North Koreans into Cadillac-driving welfare queens.
There’s another reason, perhaps. It seems like every deal with NK involves some sort of Quid Pro Quo and i wonder if we’ve got our payoff yet.
There’s a hard attitude at State dealing with NK. Lucy has moved the football too many times, I can’t criticize too much.
But it wouldn’t hurt to send flowers. And perhaps an assistant deputy sec’y of state or something.
Boxturtle (Me, I’d offer to send Biden to the funeral. He oughta be good for something)
I’m sorry. Sometimes I can be very opinionated. The again, other times, not so much so.
It’s BS….seems like spin just after the death of Jong il to come out & announce “we were just about to send aid”,it’s a try to worm ourselves in.
Mitt, is that you?
Boxturtle (I’ll accept “maybe” as an answer)
Bullshitters get a bad rap. It’s hard work being a full-time BS artist.
I’m guessing that Dear Leader was so ronery that it finally croaked him…
Well then, maybe so and maybe not. Surely you don’t think Mitt Romney would be hangin’ at here at FDL??
Ann, honey, did the latest NH polls come in yet? What do you mean did I turn off the Dragon VRT???
Kinda funny. NOt funny ha-ha, but funny strange. His two older brothers are wealthy international playbyos and have been apparently been passed over by daddy for the “despotic dictator” job.
I say, good for them. But, let’s remember, historically speaking, that hasn’t always worked out as planned. Watch your back kid.
I am not BS artist. I am just “flexible in my convictions” and considerate of others.
Could be a coincidence. Really, it COULD be.
They’re actually not talking about grain or rice, but high-protein biscuits and vitamins. “Nutritional assistance,” in other words. I agree that they ought to give it as a gesture of goodwill.
Well, the AP broke the story on the food aid hours before North Korean TV announced Kim’s death. It’s possible that there was an early leak that reached the US, but this was apparently the result of months of work.
This story is a stinky PR job, and I believe the truth is probably closer to “The US has had a food shipment plan waiting for Kim’s death.”
The Chinese also have biscuits and pills.
The US end seems to be feckless engagement once again, which should remain off the table.