If only the oil were disrupted and oil hit $140 a barrel or more.

That very well might happen merely from the turmoil in the futures markets over the security of shipments from the Persian Gulf.

And I would love to see the conservative Republicans in Congress, especially the House, would write and pass in response. Would they dare declare war with Obama as CIC and make him a wartime president running for reelection?

Just remember that Congress clearly expressed its opposition to diplomacy instead of military power, and the 2010 elections were not won by Republicans calling for less military power, less international use of force, and calling for seeking peace with Iran, North Korea, the Palestinians,….

If you think the floor of the Straight is not literally carpeted in mines or labor under the illusion the 5th Fleet can do anything about it you are living in a fool’s paradise.

I don’t know what mines may or may not lie on the seabed below the Straits but I do agree with the substance of ekornbeck’s comment.

It would seem to me that Iran can close the Strait at its pleasure. It has mines and surface to ship missiles that can sink tankers in the Strait’s shipping lanes so as to block them, and could take out at least some US Navy ships too. Iran can do plenty of damage with “assymetric” warfare techniques; it doesn’t need to contest the US Navy for control of the high seas.

Furthermore, just a credible declaration of intent to close the Straits would be almost certainly have a pronounced effect on tanker traffic through the Straits. Tanker insurance carriers would suspend coverage under force majeure or impose war insurance rates. To take things a step further, the Iranians could sink one or two tankers, daring us to attack their radars and to find their mobile missile launchers. Good luck to us in that scenario.

Keeping the 5th Fleet in Bahrain is worse than dumb, we are leaving them in a position to be easily trapped and effectively held hostage.

Years ago, when I first became aware of this possibility (whenever the last big Israeli sabre rattling about Iran’s non-nuke bomb program), I read that Iran could close off the Strait with a bunch of really small boats. I don’t remember any of the details however. I’ll try to reconstruct them in my mind or goggle around at bit.

Of course, if this happens it’s entirely O’s fault for imposing sanctions on a country that has not violated any of its nuclear treaty obligations. This is unprovoked and gratuitous cruelty and fearmongering by U.S. and its boss, Israel.

Alternative energy is the lever that holds off extortion from the oil companies. Last year was their all time biggest profit year.
It is past time to fund alternative energy as a national defense measure.

Part of the scenario I vaguely remember from 5 or so years ago involved the complete ineffectiveness of large U.S. ships in this particular scenario. But as I typed in my prior comment, I’ll be damned if I can remember why that is. Maybe it was what you say: Iran could sink one or two with their missiles, and I think I read that U.S. ships are pretty helpless against incoming missiles. (Correct that one if I’m wrong, please.)

I also like your point about insurance. I had read that before too, but had forgotten about it.

This is more BS intended to whip up support for WW III. Don’t you believe it. Iran’s leadership has more brains in its pinky than the entire US government and the banksters.

If this happens, O will make sure to accelerate construction of tar sands pipeline for energy security and give the corps involved megabillions of taxpayer dollars.

Hey, maybe that’s the whole point!

I agree that this is fearmongering for war.

But if so, there’s nothing we can do about it. Any more than we (the 99ers, not the FDLers) could do anything about the Iraq invasion. If the PTB have made up their minds, they’re going to do it regardless of public opinion.

It is the old sink a few ships to block the shallow water passage – a thought that has been on stage for 30 years – so what the heck is new here?

We can’t go to war because of ships sinking since we can not prove Iran did it on purpose if they use their own ships. Perhaps we tell them real men use guns to sink ships so as to get them to sink a few tankers by gun fire – giving us the excuse to go to war?

Plain and simple USACorp cannot afford another war and most especially if the oil spigot were turned off or the oil supply disrupted in any way.

USACorp is, as they say, over a barrel. One supposes that The Corp would have to “save face” and not look weak and would therefor default into a conflict. No so. Although The Corp would have the backing of some oil states, that would stand to gain from higher oil prices, that would not last long.

The Israelis, always itching for a fight, would no doubt declare allegiance to The Corp and take the opportunity to increase their suppression of the Palestinians and steal more land if they could. No Arab state, oil producer or not, would stand by and let Israel continue their apartheid tactics. The Corp would be left to diddle with Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan alone.

Nope The Corp will shout, threaten bluster and shit their collective pants but they will not dare enter into yet another conflict. In any case the world would not allow it. The people will not allow it. The Corp would be even more isolated in world opinion that it is now and that opinion is at an all time low.

Nope The Corp is fucked. Yippee!

We have to acknowledge that the MIC is down to just ONE war.

I think we can use “The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution” and just change a few things. No sens reinventing the wheel here.

I count more like 14, when you take into account all the covert warz and warz against drugs.

I don’t think the Obama administration is going to start a war with Iran; but if and when this administration or the next does decide it wants a war, provoking the Iranians into blocking the Straits is surely the way war would be made inevitable. Even the Republicans are going to want to make sure that the Iranians fire the first shot.

The price paid for following Israeli policy, no?

That infamous war game ya’ll are referring to was the Millennium Challenge 2002…! ;-)

When it happens it’s an American Waterloo and Little Big Horn wrapped into one.

The military burns every other gallon of juice we burn ,no juice no bang for the buck.

This country deserves everything coming our way, in spades, God ,the merciful and just , would be right to right our wrongs. o will go down in history, if there is any written, as being played for the fool.

Yes! The U.S. lost!

Thanks for the great reminder from the wayback machine.

As Scott Horton (the antiwar.com one) sez, empire makes you stupid.

Here’s a little write up on the missile in question
http://english.farsnews.ir/newstext.php?nn=9006300212

I really like that the Iranians called the missile “Persian Gulf” Who knew the Mullahs had a sense of humor?

Prices would spike to at least $140 a barrel

We’ll be talking in terms of $ hundreds a barrel, not ten dollar increments.

A major reason that Israel/US have not attacked Iran years and years ago is this very threat. The threat to close Hormuz and disrupt oil shipping is and has been quite real. Iran is not doing anything particularly new this week in issuing this threat, the issuance is just more brinksmanship, hand-in-hand with the sanctions and drone flyover brinksmanship from the US/Israel.

Here is the reality:

1) If Iran were to truly want to develop an atomic bomb, Iran will succeed. They have their own domestic sources of uranium, and apparently the capability to get there some day.

2) The West is not directly threatened by any Iranian bomb. There is no way the Iranian regime is going to develop a handful of atomic weapons then decide to use them offensively against Israel or a Western nation. This is because the Iranian regime is not stupid and the leaders will be aware that Iran would be comprehensively destroyed if such a thing were to happen.

Iran is seeking a deterrent capability, I believe. They wish to be a regional superpower.

However, look at Pakistan – that government is far less stable than that of Iran, and has nukes, and hasn’t used them once. Look also at North Korea – a place where the regime is famously, truly crazy. They have nukes, and have not used them.

What nukes would do for Iran is make them the dominant Islamic player in the world. Nukes would make it such that Israel would no longer be able to threaten Iran militarily with any conventional attack. Iranian nukes would certainly impact the world’s oil trade.

But there is no mushroom cloud scenario for the US.

Maybe we could avoid this whole mess if we took the joint chiefs of staff to a duck in a barrel shoot.

The US lost badly…! The Fifth Fleet was completely decimated, and $500 per barrel was predicted at that time…! 8-(

The ayatollahs have some amazing talents.* I wouldn’t rule out having a sense of humor.

*Among many things about Iran that I don’t know, I learned recently from reading Wright’s book on the revolution & its aftermath, that the ayatollahs instated the best family planning program of any country after the 1986 oil price crash.

But there is no mushroom cloud scenario for the US.

Except, of course, from the shit they are smoking in the WH.

That would be the way to start a war if one wanted to – let the Iranians do somethimng stupid,

Who would gain from this war? the price of oil would skyrocket and that is not going to help anyone except (maybe) big oil. The world economy would take a big hit and the price of gas at the pump would increase a lot.

Iran could find themselves a distinct minority. So for now, I’m seeing this as sabre rattling.

Only crazy people use Nukes ?

Who would that would be……….?

Who would have first dibbs on the oil, us or “Our” military ?

Sounds about right.

NOVA wrote an excellent article on the Millenium Challenge and interviewed Gen. Van Riper who led the Red Side… The Immutable Nature of War…

That was definitely the small boat thing I was thinking of.

Peter Pace in charge. Yeppers. He always struck me as stupid as stone.

U.S. military never considers of asymmetric warfare, no matter how much they are defeated by it.

Either the Russians and/or Chinese…! ;-)

Another example of empire makes you stupid. The loser gets promoted and the winner has to resign.

I agree too. Even IF/WHEN the Iranians develop a nucleur weapon threat, they don;t have the ICBM capabilities to get is very far. And THAT is problematical.

Well, the pipeline would get built, the tar sands guys would make out like bandits. Another few billion would be flushed towards the politically connected in the name of green energy. More corn would be diverted to ethanol. Ag prices would rise: combination of increased production cost plus diversion. Food riots ensue.
Winners? Big oil, Big Agra, police State.
So no surprises there, then.

Look for war games. The U.S. military had some surprising results in the past. The success of asymetric warfare was one : which it shouldn’t have been to any student of guerrilla warfare.

“swarming”

Israel has at least 200 nukes & the ability to deliver them. Iran could do nothing with one or two, even if they could deliver them.

Furthermore, if you listen to this Sy Hersh interview, the monitoring of Iran is more than just hot & cold running IAEA inspectors. U.S. sats and drones can monitor for tiny air vents under mountains, as well as radiation & apparently U.S. spooks have installed weighing devices to measure trucks going in & out of sites of interest.

The Iranians are not developing a nuke bomb.

I don’t think there will be any military confrontation with the Iranians, at least, not one that involves the US. The US can no longer afford major wars in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The US is having to leave Afghanistan and Iraq in failure.

I always appreciate your input. That it my opinion as well. I have always said that IF and WHEN Iran has a functioning bomb, the Israelis will likely take a “proactive approach” to it. Catch my drift?

Not failures if you live inside the Beltway Bubble.

And affordability??? Surely you jest. Just eliminate all those wasteful welfare programs like SS, Medicare, Medicaid, increase the deficit, and U.S. can afford many more BIG wars.

That depends on what the definition of “is” is.

The only way the Israelis would bomb Iran is to draw in U.S. to finish the job. U.S. & Israel are joined at the hip, heart and brain (if there is a functioning one between the 2 countries).

I seem to recall that Russian-made anti-ship missiles can fly supersonic, do evasive maneuvers, and pack a big punch. Iran has at least a few of these– how many?

Well, I’m not sure about that. If Israel did the job right, we wouldn;t have anything to finish off. Just sayin’.

If Obama starts World War Three it will be because the Oligarchy wants it. It’s just business. And it doesn’t matter who gets hurt.

Ya want some Sy Hersh, M’dear…? ;-)

Here ya go… Preparing the Battlefield…

and Einstein’s quote follows that up with, WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones.

The Saudi kings don’t want an Arab Spring in their harems, so they’ve pre-empted official opprobria should unrest get out of hand and they repress it to death. The Western bishops on the chess board are hoping their diagonal counter threats can trigger a major uprising from the Iranian populace, which has been eager to rise up.

I recall that well-resourced piece. Much of the operation was to acquire intelligence and to install monitoring gizmos in many sensitive places. For the most part, the article is obsolete today, though a valuable record of history.

Yes the Navy has Aegis, a system of radar and coordinated antimissile defense. But as Gen. Van Riper showed in the war games exercise that other commenters have referred to, it would seem that a concerted missile attack could overwhelm the defenses.

Van Riper also used suicide missions of PT boats to overwhelm the Blue Team defenses. Assuming some PT boats got within 5 miles of their targets, they could fire super cavitating torpedoes, which maintain a gas bubble ahead of the torpedo’s nose to cut drag. They can travel at speeds of up to 200 knots. Hard for a for a big boat like a carrier to evade one. http://orbitalvector.com/Aquatic/Supercav%20Torpedo/SUPERCAVITATING%20TORPEDO.htm

Van Riper took advantage of the achilles heel of tha Aegis system, the reload time(20 mins) for each of the Batteries of 20mm Vulcan guns…!

The Chinese Silk Worms did the most damage, right after the opening barrage of ‘junk’ missiles…!

The only thing we ain’t at war with is war. Drugs, Poverty, terror…….the list goes on and on. Our DC brainchildren are in love with the graphics of being at war. Mores the pity for the rest of us since none of them seem to be able to strate-gerize their way out of a wet paper bag.

You underestimate Washington’s ability to remain ignorant on any topic for lengthy periods of time.

*heh* Their congressional paychecks ensure that they remain blissfully ignorant…! ;-)

In 1983 folks were discussing the closing of Hormuz (Iran wanted the US to pay $150 billion for “war damage via weapons we gave Iraq”) -and Reagan’s reaction – on July 26 the U.S. threatened action to preserve navigation in Persian Gulf.

It is not exactly a new problem – or a new reaction.

Keeping the 5th Fleet in Bahrain is worse than dumb, we are leaving them in a position to be easily trapped and effectively held hostage.

Sitting ducks, indeed.

CTuttle, you really know your stuff. Nice comment. Re: Silkworms, the US Navy would be ecstatic if they were the worst threat the faced today in the Persian Gulf, since Russia’s Yakonts cruise missile travels at mach 3, around 3 times faster than Silkworms. And since the Yakonts were designed for export, the Navy had better be prepared for them.

I concur fully.

China and Russia got entangling alliances with Iran; they won’t stand aside OR support war against Iran by anyone.

Not only is our 5th Fleet a sitting duck, but our armed forces in AfPak are also sitting ducks, with no land way out the MINUTE Iran is attacked, as all roads out would be fully occupied by united Islamist forces and once disparate tribal lords . . .

Pentagon knows this, has known this since the first Boosh did Iran.

Great comments, the links to the ’02 mockup war games, links to say Hersh . . . Tuttle’s ‘inside’ info, eCahn’s musings, Sunlights point of the Ruski supersonic yakunts . . .

Great read.

MY consensus remains the same, to DO Iran will launch a global thermo nuclear war scenario and as such, so far, NO ONE is fucking crazy enough to do that, not our neocons, not the Israeli war mongering Likudniks . . .

Ergo, it’s all blustering for a purpose . . . one said purpose is for Wall Street to leverage futures and speculations on oil to drive profit taking and force domestic oil n gas de regulation environments be damned . . . someone up above made that comment and I thought it was spot on the minute I read it.

Well done Firebaggers, one and all . . . . including diary author Mr. Dayen’s initial read . . . always great work, Sir.

Mahalo, Sunlight…! I like to keep abreast…! ;-)

Not just the Yakonts tho, the Chinese have since supplied them the latest variants of the Silk Worms…!

The two greatest destabilizing factors in the Gulf region? Israel and the US! War by provocation or accident what with all the warships in the region could set the whole region afire and quickly escalate into a global conflagration. If Israel leaps the fence like a meth-crazed rottweiler and goes for Iran’s throat the consequences would be absolutely horrendous for all of us.

This cool guy: Subcomandante Marcos, says WW3 was the cold war, and WW4 constitute neoliberalism and globalization. He is the spokesman for the Zapatista Army of LIberation, an indigenous movement in Mexico.

1 (one) JDAM going into Iran means zero chance of an economic recovery and second term for Obama. He knows it and the republicans know it. Nothing “surgical” will work. Plus, the Iranians have all kinds of chits to call in with Sadr and Hezbollah. Pickup trucks with state-of-the-art Russian shoulder-fireds will be wending their way across Mesopotamia.

I don’t believe Obama is stupid enough to do anything “preemptively”. Of course, I didn’t think Bush was that stupid, either. Maybe a mid-east Tonkin?

I think Larue’s checklist of the downsides was pretty comprehensive.

You know I realize many of you HATE JEWS and Israel but the reality is this, IRAN is the one that has rained missiles down on Israel through it’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel has never dropped as much as bullet on Iranian soil last time I checked. Oh and while were @ it it appears the US is actually more Saudi Arabia’s bitch then Israel’s. We have fought how many wars so far defending the Saudis and their precious OIL? Have any US soldiers ever been asked to fight for Israel , in it’s 63 yrs? NO.

Here we go with the “anti-semitic” card…

Won’t work on here, Seaglass. I’ve been a supporter of Israel in the past, but more and more they’ve gone over the line in reacting to provocations, and in pro-acting, too.

Also, we’re giving them $3 billion a year in aid, and who knows how much military assistance. Most of the ordinance they dropped on Lebanon in that misery a few years ago, was U.S. supplied. Plus, your comment about the U.S. being the Saudi’s bitch ignores that both the Saudis and the Israelis would LOVE a U.S. attack on Iran.

And then there was this, of course:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

I’ve certainly got to hand it to ya, seaglass, you’re certainly persistent…! 8-(

Heh the Saudis HATE Iran. They’ve been holding a proxy war with em’ in Iraq. The Saudis fund and arm the Sunnis(with our help) and the Iranians the Shiites. So I don’t get how the Saudis are supposedly in cahoots with Iran and out to get Israel. :/

The House of Saud is instrumental if all the backdoor manuvers throughout the ME, they’ve been actively quelling all the Shi’ite ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings, from Bahrain, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt, Qatar, Iraq, ad nauseum…! Wikileaks have clearly pointed out the Saudis direct military links with Bibi’s War Cabal…! 8-(

In fact, I’d even seen a recent article where the House of Saud’s Foreign Minister would actually approve an Israeli air strike on Iran…! *gah*

USACorp

I’ve thought for some time the country’s name should formally be changed to this.

Would also like to see the Department of Defense regain its original name: The Department of War. Truth in labelling and all that.

Here’s an interesting piece on the events in Iraq, regarding Maliki’s recent actions.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/28/opinion/ayoob-iran-iraq-sectarian-strife/index.html

I think it’s a fair assessment of what’s going on, but I would disagree with Ayoob’s hopeful conclusions that Iran is going to yank on Maliki’s leash in favor of “Greater Iraq”. With all of the agit-prop and saber-rattling we’re directing at them I think that their interest in helping us stave off the utterly predictable and unavoidable chaotic results of our bloody, bullshit-based, Operation Enduring Shitmire, is about nil. I think they will have the attitude of:

“Oh, you’re threatening us, while YOUR dick is in the blender? We’ll just watch as the Kurds and the Sunnis take a giant shit in your tinkerbelle-fantasy “unified Iraq” chiffon congeal.”

IF Iran is willing AND able to force Maliki to make some huge concessions to the other factions, there is going to be one hell of a quid for that quo. The daily dose of fear and loathing that we’ve been organizing and directing at them is going to come to a screeching halt, and while I don’t really believe that Obama is insane enough to attack them, I also don’t think that he’s got the balls to deal with our warbots and strike some kind of a bargain with Teheran. I think things will just drift along and get more and more chaotic, until the sectarian violence pops like a big zit. At that point, no one knows what will happen for sure, but it won’t be pretty, and it won’t be mission accomplished, and Leon Panetta’s crap about it all being worth it, will look like what it is:

BushCo bullshit, coming from the SecDef who’s working for Dubya’s third-term preznint.

Ctut, there was so much open speculation about the Saudis approving an overflight of Iraeli warplanes attacking Iran, that they finally had to make a formal denial that it was being considered. I expect that the speculation was both a trial balloon to see how it would be received across the Islamic world, and a warning to Iran that it just might happen. That little problem of how to get Israeli aircraft to Iranian territory is a thorny one, both logistics-wise and politically. SOMEBODY is going to have to sign off on a use of their airspace that is going to be seen by a lot of Islamic people as an out-and-out act of war.

I realize many of you HATE JEWS and Israel

There are many critics of Israel in here, but your comment suggests that you’re either very dumb or have no intellectual integrity or some toxic combination of the two.

As a progressive Jew, I have not seen a single anti-Semitic comment in this thread. The left tends to be more critical of Israel than I would like and too unquestioningly supportive of both the Arabs in general and the Palestinian Arabs in particular, but to conflate that with anti-Semitism is deplorable and cheesy. It’s a legitimate point of view in any foreign policy discussion of the Middle East and you need to deal with that.

Yes, that one really chaps my hide.

I agree. Imposing sanctions on a country’s products is an act of war. Who authorized that?

I’m a fan of Subcomandante Marcos. Thanks for the link. I look for him to show up in Louisiana sometime after the fall of the Empire.

FUCK OIL WHORES……….

Sanctions…. Lets see what sanctions where levied against Germany?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations

Please note Iran attacked no one. Please note the west has fucked with Iran for decades, fucking Iran.

What’s the last thing a oilman wants? Competition!
For those of us who grew up with MAD, would you commit suicide? Lets call this what is! Protect the oilmen as Congress protected slave owners……

To life…. Not servitude to a King, a government or a corporation!

What kind of mines do you think are there, exactly? Presumably, they’d have to be wired to shore (batteries don’t last that long)… and the shore stations would not last if they tried to use them. The Iranian air force and navy would not last 5 minutes against the US Fifth Fleet if they tried to challenge them, so they are not a significant factor.

There are three tools which the Iranians have in sufficient quantities to attempt to close the straits: NorK-sourced extreme range artillery, Chinese-built (or locally copied) HY-2 Silkworm anti-ship missiles, and small boats operating either as minelayers or suicide attackers. All three are extremely vulnerable to both air attack (either manned or drone) and naval artillery.

Military blockade of an international waterway (unlike sanctions) is an act of war, and it will be treated as such by the international community. Iran won’t just be facing the US Navy.

That sort of thing works in harbor mouths, and has been used for centuries. It does not work on a passage that’s 34 miles wide, like the Straits of Hormuz.