California’s ambitious high speed rail program hit a snag yesterday when a peer review group recommended a halt to continued bond funding of the project until a long-term funding source can be secured.
Let’s back up a bit. In 2008, California voters passed a proposition enabling bond financing of a high speed rail network stretching from San Diego to Sacramento. It would make the trip from key hubs in Southern California to Northern California in under 3 hours, and would increase productivity in the state, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and bring 21st-century infrastructure to America. The Obama Administration latched on to high speed rail early, and doled out grants to several states, including California, to build out their HSR networks. In fact, as other states dropped out of HSR, California got a funding boost from the Transportation Department.
But long-term funding is not yet secure. Congress in its last budget wiped out all Administration funding to the states for high speed rail. The project in California has also been beset by a NIMBY-based campaign to discredit it. The cost projections have risen, in no small part because locals in Central California demanded expensive changes to the route. But the major problem that the peer review group cited is the lack of a long-term funding solution, either through the federal government or private capital, to keep the project going.
“The fact that the Funding Plan fails to identify any long term funding commitments is a fundamental flaw in the program,” the California High-Speed Rail Peer Review Group said in a letter to legislative leaders. “Without committed funds, a mega-project of this nature could be forced to halt construction for many years before additional funding could be obtained.”
The peer review group, chaired by former Caltrans director Will Kempton, said many of the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s projections remain optimistic.
The group said in its report that “we cannot overemphasize the fact that moving ahead on the HSR project without credible sources of adequate funding, without a definitive business model, without a strategy to maximize the independent utility and value to the State, and without the appropriate management resources, represents an immense financial risk on the part of the state of California.”
With a release of bond funding, the HSR project could actually start breaking ground in the Central Valley this year. Governor Jerry Brown supports the project, and remains behind it even after the report. But this peer review report could make it difficult to get the bond approval out of the Legislature. The high speed rail authority blasted the report, but some lawmakers have been waiting for a fig leaf to kill the project – and that includes parochial members of both parties.
Robert Cruickshank assesses the state of play at the California HSR blog:
As I’ve been arguing, California’s high speed rail project is getting screwed not by any internal flaws or by public rejection, but by the decision of the far-right extremists in the House of Representatives to oppose high speed rail funding. By calling into question future federal support for HSR, the House has made it easier to attack the California project. As we all know, the $10 billion in voter-approved bond funding and $4 billion in federal stimulus is not enough to complete the project or to build an initial operating segment that can generate its own revenue. That enables further attacks on the project, using the argument that no guarantee of future funding means no funding at all and therefore we shouldn’t even begin any construction whatsoever.
There’s no doubt that the lack of secured, full funding is a problem. The question is how does one resolve it? Do you assume that the federal government will never spend another dime on high speed rail again and call it a day? Or do you press onward and build what you can, working to change Congress’ mind while also hoping that the initial construction can itself act as a spur to win more funding?
The other part of this is that, if the peer group’s recommendations are taken, California would probably forfeit billions in already secured federal funding for HSR, not to mention the cost of developing the airports and roadways that would be needed in the absence of HSR.
It’s good news that Brown wants to forge ahead, forcing a future Congress to make a decision on future funding. Presumably the current Tea Party Congress will not be around to deny HSR funding forever, possibly even by next year. But the knives have been out for HSR in California for some time. It’s a shortsighted response, to deny 21st-century infrastructure and the productivity it provides because of short-term deficit concerns. Let’s hope California keeps moving forward.




14 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
Very discouraging, especially compared to our 21st century competitors worldwide.
For the umpteenth time, high speed rail is good, but this particular project is a boondoogle.
First, the true cost was undersold by a whopping margin. This quote doesn’t even come close to approximating the true cost.
Second, the initial route was promising but facing objections from the well-to-do in places like Santa Barbara, the state decided to change the location; it’s now Bakersfield to Fresno. (Or as more aptly put, from nowhere to nowehere.)
HSR needs to be defended and encouraged, but not this turkey. Doing so is just going to produce blowback against the entire concept. Backing this turkey will do more harm than good. Much more.
Bakersfield has around 350,000 citizens, and Fresno has over 510,000 residents. Their combined metropolitan areas have a total population of almost two million, which is more than live in West Virginia, Nebraska, or Vermont. It’s not quite the howling depopulated wasteland it’s made out to be.
And what’s to say that the line can’t be extended to LA eventually?
Lets see…
Fewer tires sold.
Less Gas sold.
Less Gas Tax Collected.
Fewer Cars Needed.
The only reason HSR would not move is once again to protect business models and profit. Even if it is good for everyone else!
.
California is broke. If they were flush with cash and had a top notch school system it would be a different matter. Brown appears to be unable to prioritize the need to haves over the nice to haves.
.
If California is so broke, they should go back to stage coaches.
Meanwhile, Europeans laugh at us.
I think we’re seeing some behind the scenes push back from airlines. SJC/SFO/OAK to LAX is a HUGE market, with multiple flights on multiple airlines every day. It wouldn’t surprise me to find out companies like Southwest are pressuring Republicans on this one.
Thanks for pointing that out. This why it will never get built everyone wants a part of the action even if there some small $$$$$$$ area.
Thanks ghostof911 I’m sure we here in Calli are on the way to just that, how sad.
That’s probably it. They can’t do it to Amtrak in the northeast corridor because the lines have been around too long and folks would rise up in revolt. But Cali never got the train habit.
The two mountain ranges it would have to go through would make that portion quite expensive.
Bakersfield to San Francisco would make more sense
They’re not mountains but hills part of the coastal range and since I5 goes through there you don’t need to buy any right a way. Then up the hiway 99 and once again no right a ways needed.
Cali had one the most extensive trolly and train lines in the world. Then came GM and firestone and the rest is history. The Ace trains in my are is full they tried to add a forth train but UP said no. There is an unused right a way through Altmont. The valley train from Sacto to Bakesfield run close full all the time.
Statistics don’t reflect reality. Ever been to Bakersfield or Fresno? Got any idea what the economies are like? Well, I have and I do, since I was once a sales rep whose territory included both locations.
People from these areas are not “briefcase” commuters. They are primarily employed in agriculture and oil production. These are not centers where masses of people will get up in the morning, put on a suit, pick up their briefcase, and shoot up from Philly or DC, or down from Boston, to NYC to call on clients. People up there, when they need to go someplace, jump in the SUV or, more likely, the truck, because often they either need to carry and/or tow something, or their final destination is way off the beaten bath. This isn’t getting out at Penn Station or Grand Central and hailing a cab or jumping on the subway.
There just aren’t enough riders. To quote again from the report:
Not enough to complete the project or to build an initial operating segment that can generate it’s own revenue.
As for extending it to LA: Great idea, but it would need to be two extensions in a “Y” configuration, veering both east to downtown L.A. and west to SM/BH/LAX. That’s a helluva lot of construction through some challenging — and high priced — terrain. In addition, extending it to LA isn’t enough; you need to extend it to the Bay Area as well — Silicon Valley, SFO, etc. Again, some challenging and pricey terrain.
That said, I would be in favor of the original LA-SF line, with eventual extension to SD as well. But the only way to accomplish that is to save the money spent on the Bakersfield-Fresno segment and apply that funding to the coastal route. (BTW, the coastal route could have a leg that veers off into downtown LA but that segment wouldn’t have to be built until the main line dropped down over the Grapevine into the LA basin. Lot shorter and a lot less expensive.)
As for competition from the airlines: they’ve already won that battle by getting the line shoved inland. They’re worried about the LAX-SFO-San Jose-Oakland corridor traffic. They don’t give a shit about traffic to and from Bakersfield or Fresno. They don’t even service these areas with regular planes. You have to fly their discount commuter carrier prop-jets. Why? Because there isn’t even enough traffic from LAX or the Bay Area airports to these god-forsaken hick burgs. (Much less between the god-forsaken hick burgs.)
Like I said before, HSR is a great idea done right, but this is a boondoggle.
You’re wrong about the right-of way-issue. Just because there’s a freeway or highway there doesn’t mean that there is also enough room for a train right-of-way. There are legal issues, noise pollution issues, safety zone considerations, etc.
Just to repeat myself again: HSR is great, but not this particular venture as currently constituted.