I mostly agree with Jon Walker’s take on the Iowa caucus results, and the eight-vote victory for Mitt Romney. It’s not clear Rick Santorum, to this point completely un-vetted by conservative or traditional media, will have the staying power or the resources to hang with Romney.
I thought of half a dozen things off the top of my head that will hurt Santorum, none of which had to do with Googling his name. He helped run the K Street project. He held a Social Security event in 2005 where his supporters chanted “Hey hey, ho ho, Social Security has got to go.” He compared Democrats to Hitler on the Senate floor because they were complaining about the potential “nuclear option” for judges. He once held a press conference to actually claim that he found the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (there’s video of this floating around somewhere). That’s not a very comprehensive list.
But to the extent that Santorum can make this a race, he’s helped by a winnowing of the field. And that’s apparently what’s happening. Michele Bachmann cancelled planned events in South Carolina and will hold a press conference back in Iowa this morning. I cannot see that being about anything other than her dropping out after a sixth-place finish last night. Similarly, Rick Perry, in his campaign concession speech, said he would go back to Texas and “reassess” the results, and “determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race.” Usually, that’s the beginning of the end.
So let’s at least entertain ourselves with this scenario. Perry and Bachmann drop out, and the clear choice of social conservatives becomes Santorum. Ron Paul will continue – because of the odd way that Iowa eventually chooses its delegates in a four-stage process, just by having Paul supporters stick around after the vote last night (a considered strategy on the part of the campaign), they may come out of Iowa with the most delegates, though it’s hard to say because everything is nonbinding at this point. But he still rakes in some votes, making it hard for Romney to pull away.
Newt Gingrich plans to be a battering ram, going in hard negative against Romney, who he blames for blowing him out of the water in Iowa. So Santorum doesn’t even have to go negative. If he gets any kind of surge in New Hampshire and passes Huntsman, he probably ends Huntsman’s campaign. Then it’s Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich in South Carolina, with Gingrich going nuclear on Romney, Paul in territory where he’s not positioned well to succeed, and Santorum the only social con left. I mean, you can spin that out.
You can also see it another way. Romney isn’t budging in New Hampshire, where he could get close to 50% of the vote. He has begun to take on Santorum, however gently, and his SuperPAC could train their guns on him. The John McCain endorsement doesn’t mean much on its own, but it does show that the establishment is moving to Romney in a showy way.
In the end, I think Romney will have too much money and too much inside backing. But there’s at least a glimmer for Santorum, especially with the winnowing process.
UPDATE: While Bachmann did announce that she’ll drop out, Perry decided to stay in, at least for South Carolina. This is probably bad news for Santorum.




73 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
Obama and his WH team must have been doing backflips and the happy dance last night. The only way it could have been better for them is is if Paul or Santorum had actually won and Romney finished third.
So basically the grand plan from Mr Civil Liberties is to usurp the will of Iowa voters if it suits him. Good to know. I didn’t think I could respect him less than I did before. I stand corrected.
There are two topoics that I have not seen discussed yet related to the results in Iowa.
1. Santorum did this with very little money. We always talk about the impact of cash in the electoral process – if that were completely true Santorum would have had no chance. Perhaps it is the unique nature of Iowa, the population and such, but it does seem to me that access to the Internet, sheer excitement in a portion of the voting public and “presence” of the candidate all can make up for some lack of money.
2. what happened to the occupy team. I was looking off and on for some report last night of their activities.
Santorum didn’t have to spend money bc he was so far behind until his very late surge that the superpacs didn’t have time to go negative against him.
Dayen: yesterday, you wrote that you didn’t think that Santorum had “a snowball’s chance”, today your view appears to have changed, he now has the snowball’s chance. Was it Iowa alone that changed your view?
From TPM/CNN/Twitter, Perry is still in the race. TPM says his campaign confirms.
THIS JUST IN!!! Perry is NOT dropping out. He and his staff are headed for S.Car.
Regarding Santorum. I’d like to remind everybody that just last week, Santorum’s negaqtives from republiucans were 62%. THAT’S RIGHT! 62% of republicans polled nationwide said he was NOT QUALIFIED to be presdient. He got this vote in IOwa from the same evangelicals that suported Huckabee 4 years ago. That, combined with the fact that he is the last anf final “not-Romney/not-Mormon” out there means nothing in the other 56 states. THis is just the last gasp before the GOP resigns itself to a Romney nomination as being inevitable nad unavoidable.
OTOH, it will be verrry interesting to see what Gingrich comes up with as he attempts to “torpedo” Romney’s nomination.
My speculation is that Romney is a done deal. My understanding (secondhand as it is) is that the GOP is a plutocrats’ party that uses religion and “social conservatism” as props to manipulate people, not the other way around. I suspect that today’s GOP establishment and power players will not want to be too beholden to the religious world. That didn’t go over well with Bush after all. I speculate that the plutocrats will want figures in power who are close to them first.
I think Romney, by default, is a done deal for the nomination, and the real question is the question of who will run with Romney as the veep candidate.
Santorum got the; all these people stink, so I’ll vote for the least popular one who doesn’t have a chance to win anything.
You can teach a flea to do everything you can teach a congressman to do.
Mark Twain
Being from Texas myself, I can tell ya’ they ain’t no quit in that boy. They ain’t no smarts neither.
I urge FDL readers check out what Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi thinks about misplaced media coverage on Iowa:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/iowa-the-meaningless-sideshow-begins-20120103
In other words, Romney is going to need a veep candidate who is close to the “tea party” and “social conservative” hearts. The first question is whether or not it will be somebody whom Romney ran against in the primary.
I’m listening to Romney on democracynow. Does anyone still believe that shit.
Romney HAS NH. He will likely finish 2nd in S.Car. Florida is now gonna be closer than last week due to Gingrich’s “slippage. But after FL the primaries head up north and out west where Romney is probably not stoppable.
Let’s get real. Sanrtorum is a wimp. SOrry, Ricky supporters, that dog won’t hunt.
He isn’t just going after Romney either. From what I understand he’ll be going after Paul as well.
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2011/12/gingrich-unloads-on-paul-worse.php
Guess we’re going to get a foreign policy debate. Should be fun.
Read an interview with a woman in Iowa the other day and she said that she had supported each of the front runners as they popped up but that she was going to go with Frothy because he was the most religious. How do you deal with people who think like that?
Exactly. To me the most interesting feature of the Iowa Caucus was the Superpac assault on Newt Gingrich, and if it hadn’t been Newt it would have been Cain, but the PTB were able to neutralize him without having to dump a shitload of money. The media campaign that the Romney PAC’s ran against Gingrich was a model. Every political strategist will have followed it and learned from it. It is like the battle between the Monitor and the Merrimac, which in one day made all the battle fleets of the world obsolete.
The superpacs are the nuclear device of this year’s election. No wonder Obama has been playing footsie with the banks. They could annihilate him.
Heh
That’s what I was thinking when it said Romney was timidly attacking Santorum.
Then my next thought was aren’t there any Southern social conservatives?
Pennsylvania is practically in his backyard. You’d figure he’d pick someone farther away.
More the dynamic of Gingrich becoming destroyer of worlds (and Romney). But I think Santorum has moved from a 0% to a 0.5% chance, it’s not that big a snowball.
Two words………………………..Marco Rubio.
Anyone here see this (pulled from Rolling Stone)?
“HELENA — The Montana Supreme Court restored the state’s century-old ban on direct spending by corporations on political candidates or committees in a ruling Friday that interest groups say bucks a high-profile U.S. Supreme Court decision granting political speech rights to corporations…
A group seeking to undo the Citizens United decision lauded the Montana high court, with its co-founder saying it was a “huge victory for democracy.”
With this ruling, the Montana Supreme Court now sets up the first test case for the U.S. Supreme Court to revisit its Citizens United decision, a decision which poses a direct and serious threat to our democracy,” John Bonifaz, of Free Speech For People, said in a statement.
Now that is real politics — real protest, real change.
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/iowa-the-meaningless-sideshow-begins-20120103#ixzz1iVugLQGX
Guess we’re going to get a foreign policy debate. Should be fun.
——-
Shit! A foreign policy debate WITHOUT Herman Cain? What’s the point??
There’s a definite enthusiasm gap – only 123,000 of 640,000 registered Rs turned out yesterday according to Political Wire.
Saw that. This COULD be a milestone in America……..
(cue Battle Hymn of the Republic)
Nine score and seven years ago…………
Did the get lost on the way to the polls???????
“On-star” and “Garmin” are pretty much totally useless in Iowa. “Turn right at the cornfield”.
That would be my bet.
Thanks, Twain, that’s the most relevent news coverage I’ve heard about Iowa. All the main stream media hype we’ve been blitzed with for the last week, all the campaign spending, all the phone calls, and wow – only 123k of 640k registered Rs in Iowa cared enough to participate.
LOL. Perhaps they just hate ALL the members of the goat rodeo.
We’ll know the level of their disinterest after NH, I think.
Thanks for that. I don’t think Taibbi was describing anything particularly new in terms of his perception of the Pres race, but he did a good job of summing up the obvious complaints about it, and contrasting with the reality of widespread upset outside of DC.
“The Santorum Surge” is a complete media fabrication. He is a mere foil by the media/propaganda machine to get the secular fascist(Obamabots, the Democratic party) to get excited about the presidential selection, while the Christian fascist(The republican party) can have someone to root for. Because in the end, Romney and Obama are interchangeable parts/cogs in this corporate military machine we call a democracy. All this prognosticating, is no more different that trying to figure out who will be the next WWE heavyweight champion.
I’d certainly like to see someone besides Romney get the nomination – anyone else would probably lose hugely in the general election, meaning that we’d have one less attention to pay attention to the disaster as it unfolds again.
Herman Cain – the new ambassador to uz beki beki sthan and preliminary Secretary of Defense.
The problem with picking someone who ran against you in the primary is you have to get both people to address the attacks they made against each other in the general election, which is not easy to do in a way that enhances their joint candidacy.
I suspect Romney will need someone better known.
Oh God.
Cain as secretary of defense.
Lord help us.
I agree with Stacey Herbert for the most part….
“I think the system is beyond redemption that no single person can fix; we have to hit reset and have another Constitutional Congress and recreate a Republic; in terms of endorsing any candidate, it’s up to others whom they choose to vote for if they choose to participate in obviously rigged elections, I do hope Ron Paul gets the Republican nomination so that the discussion about foreign policy is had publicly; it is from this discussion which revolution could potentially brew..”
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/01/04/a-picture-tells-a-thousand-words-about-why-ron-paul-will-not-be-allowed-to-be-nominated/#comments
The other way I guess to look at these “timid” attacks is that he’s going to leave the heavy lifting to the SuperPAC like he did with Gingrich and keep plausible deniability. “Who could have ever imagined that the PAC would be so mean, it isn’t ME, I can’t coordinate with these things. etc,etc,etc.)
I’m curious about this, too. Anyone know anything??
Albeit, there was very low turn-out for the Iowa caucus, which is why I think Santorum did as well as he did. The whole IA caucus is pretty much a waste of time, imo, but it does give us something to natter about.
Anyone know anything about Occupy in IA yesterday??
“I thought of half a dozen things off the top of my head that will hurt Santorum,…”
None of the things you mention will hurt him with Republicans. He says he will bomb Iran and annul gay marriages. That’s the basis of his current popularity.
The Oligarchs want Obama or Romney so those will be the legacy party candidates. Libertarians and Progressives have grown weary of the Oligarchy. It’s kind of funny. They think they have nothing in common even though they are in the same boat.
But, but, but . . .Obama is on TV right now sticking it to the banks by appointing Cordray. Here comes the annihilation. /s
Pray for them.
Don’t think I’ve ever heard a lamer crowd response than Obama just got from Ohioans when he said Cordray has been fighting for them right there in Ohio as their AG.
Nevertheless it was a record turn out for the Republicans.
I hate to miss a good train wreck. As long as nobody gets hurt.
The discussion is already being had and thanks to the aversion of the left to actually holding their sides feet to the fire, they aren’t going to be a large part of it.
No the debate will end with more saber rattling. Why? It’s what the GOP does and Paul is running in their primary. Any attempts to be dovish and I use that term loosely will be seen as a flaw. Even if they allow the eccentric view, do you see any way for Paul to procure the nomination with second and third place finishes?
Yes, THAT Herman Cain. Pizza mogul/American statesman/buffoon extrodinnaire
Let us not forget, JFK chose LBJ. Reagan chose GHWB.
Rubio is from the South. Perfect balance for yankee at top of the ticket. He also has good reputation in the party and with TEA baggers. MIght even pull in some Hispanic voters.
Sanatorium will likely tap Joe the (unlicensed) plumber for his running mate.
I don’t think I have NOTHING in common with them. We’re all human. That being said we don’t share the same values. I believe in tolerance, compassion, equality and value community. As far as I can see those aren’t libertarian priorities.
“Oh the humanity….”
I’m sure he has those “savvy businessmen” shaking in their shoes.
Have they drawn straws to figure out which one of them is to be made an example of yet?
I think he will continue the discussion.
And if elections were fully transparent then potentially could win the Gnarled Old Pr**ks nomination. But like Stephan Molyneux once said, it’s probably better that he not get elected to the helm of the US of Titanic, for then a integrous believer in liberty, non violence, and constitutional principals(Dr. Paul) could be seen as a casual factor.
The system is owned.
The system will choose.
Barry will return.
The system will DIE as all things do when their life has run it’s course.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igbBItLemsM
I’m thinking it will be President Romney.
Although it matters not one little bit, they are interchangeable.
Heh. Market has rallied since the pending appointment became known. A very familiar pattern to me by now.
He’s not supposed to have any staying power, that’s the point – Santorum exists as a manufactured GOP-MSM firebreak between their chosen candidate and Ron Paul.
This gives the media plausible deniability in their continuing avoidance of the national issues Paul raises, allowing the media to return to gossiping solely about the superficial personality details of the candidates as characters in a soap opera.
It was clear for days before the caucus that the plan was to use Mr. Leakage as a diversion: looking over hundreds of headlines listed in Google News showed somewhere between 1/4 an 1/3 talking about Santorum even though there would be no plausible reason to do so given his level of support up to that time, and easily less than 4% mentioning Paul. The oxygen for real political discussion was intentionally burned up in talking about Santorum.
The GOP, MSM, and for that matter the Democrats needed an excuse to be able to stop talking about Paul (not that they did much, only doing it because they were forced into it), and more importantly stop talking about how many people actually support Paul’s ideas, since that admission destroys the Overton window and illusion of issue conformity the oligarchy (of which the media is a part) has worked so hard to create. So they created one: Santorum.
Indeed.
“The dismantling of constitutionally protected civil liberties is purposeful, as is the accumulation of arbitrary and unaccountable powers in the executive branch of government. As there have been no terrorist events within the US in over a decade except for those known to have been organized by the FBI, there is no terrorist threat that justifies the establishment of a political regime of unaccountable power. It is being done on purpose under false pretenses, which means that there is an undeclared agenda. The threat that Americans face resides in Washington, D.C.
Of the presidential candidates, only Ron Paul addresses the Constitution’s demise.Yet, the electorate is concerned with matters unimportant by comparison. Propagandized 24/7 by the Ministry of Truth, Americans are not sufficiently aware of their plight to elect Ron Paul president.
It might be too late for even a President Ron Paul to turn things around. A president has no power unless his government supports him. What prospect would President Ron Paul have of getting his appointees confirmed by the Senate? The military/security complex is not going to vacate power. Powerful monied interests would block his appointments. If he persisted in being a problem for the Establishment, he would be victimized by a scandal and fail to be reelected if not forced to resign.
Remember what the Washington Establishment did to President Carter. His budget director and chief of staff were framed, thus depriving Carter of the powers of his office. Even Ronald Reagan had to give away more than half of his government, including the White House chief-of-staff and vice presidency, to the Establishment. President Reagan told me that he wanted to end stagflation in order that he could end the cold war, but that he could not sign a tax bill if I could not get one out of his administration that he could send to Congress.
I do not know, but I suspect that turning things around internally through the political system is not in the cards. Our chance to resurrect liberty might come from Washington’s hubris. Imperial ambitions and drive for power can produce unmanageable upheavals and a loss of allies. Overreach abroad with a demoralized, unemployed and downtrodden population at home are not the ingredients of success.”
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/
Most of Paul’s “ideas” are backwards and stupid.
And most of his supporters can’t seem to follow his ideas to their logical conclusion.
Spare me the constitutional scholar crap. I heard that about the LAST guy we elected.
Agreed, I just wish this got a whole LOT more coverage & the dribble a whole lot less.
Did I say he was a “scholar”?
I’m curious as to what a couple of these “logical conclusions” are ?
Please elucidate.
And to continue with the larger issue that “elections” are simply the story the oligarchy tells the people to justify decisions that were made long before, it will interesting to see whether the media ever analyzes how they themselves could have been so utterly, totally wrong about how Bachmann and Perry (along with Romney) constituted the GOP “top tier” – and then ask the essential question: if the media could be so wrong then, and nothing has changed, why should anyone ever believe them?
Review this important clip from The Daily Show to refresh your memories.
So we have the results of a caucus of repubs ran by repubs. I’m sure the count was honest and fair. NOT! An honest republican is like military intelligence, an old wives tale, based on make believe.
Old Southern advice: it’s probably best to resist the temptation to engage the tar baby.
(And thanks for the PCR clipping, he’s been very good since his political awakening (he’s much like an insider version of Greenwald). I’m glad Roberts decided to not give up and has returned to writing.)
aye the whole article is good here is another clip that may intrest those here in fdlville….
“Bradley Manning is the case in point. Manning, a US soldier, is alleged to be the person who released to WikiLeaks the “Collateral Murder” video, which, in the words of Marjorie Cohn, “depicts U.S. forces in an Apache helicopter killing 12 unarmed civilians, including two Reuters journalists. People trying to rescue the wounded were also fired upon and killed.”
One of the Good Samaritans was a father with two small children. The video reveals the delight that US military personnel experienced in blowing them away from the distant skies. When it became clear that the Warriors Bringing The People Democracy had blown away two small children, instead of remorse we hear an executioner’s voice saying: “that’s what he gets for bringing children into a war zone.”
The quote is from memory, but it is accurate enough. When I first saw this video, I was astonished at the brazen war crime. It is completely obvious that the dozen or so murdered people were simply people walking along a street, threatening no one, unarmed, doing nothing out of the ordinary. It was not a war zone. The horror is that the US soldiers were playing video games with live people. You can tell from their commentary that they were having fun by killing these unsuspecting people walking along the street. They enjoyed killing the father who stopped to help and shooting up his vehicle with the two small children inside.
This was not an accident of a drone, fed with bad information, blowing up a school full of children, or a hospital, or a farmer’s family. This was American soldiers having fun with high tech toys killing anyone that they could pretend might be an enemy.
When I saw this, I realized that America was lost. Evil had prevailed.”
America as we have known it – or more accurately said, as we imagined it – is over, as I’ve written for years.
But while we should rightly grieve, we shouldn’t give up.
The end of the old is always necessary for the new to have room to grow. That’s what’s happening now. The old is being cleared away because something new is coming. And in our sadness and grief over the end of our childhood, we shouldn’t forget that part of ourselves for which we have chosen to sacrifice our innocence: our full, adult, awakened humanity.
I agree the old will thrash about a bit as it dies.
But a more compassionate caring imaginative humanity
could be just around the corner.
There is apparently a Rubio rumor. Let me see if I can find its source.
Not so sure about that. It looks like about 120K folks showed for the rep side – don’t know what happened on the dem side. That is about what happened four years ago for the reps, and I doubt that there would be very many more in a pure primary vote.
It’s already here.
Now we have to nurture and care for it.
And that begins by thanking what came before as we compassionately help it move on to whatever awaits it on the other side.
Thank you for being a warming light on a cold day.
Stewart is hilarious AND spot on: “How did Libertarian Ron Paul become the thirteenth floor in a hotel?” (begin at time point 2:05)