We’ve talked about how austerity simply doesn’t work in the midst of a recession. It certainly doesn’t help bring back the economy, and it can make deficits larger, because revenues collapse when austerity creates a deeper recession or depression. So when you see editorials like this, claiming that the “least bad option” for Greece would be internal devaluation – essentially wage cuts and higher taxes, pretty much austerity measures that “devalue” the currency by making everyone poorer – understand that this is a call for the masses to suffer to protect banks and elites. Couching austerity in terms of “competitiveness” is really disgusting.
Jeff Madrick has the best explanation I’ve read of how the hysteria toward austerity is really killing Europe:
Proponents of austerity claim that as nations take control of their finances businesses become more convinced that interest rates will not rise and that growth will resume. Their reasoning has been abetted by the financial markets, which drove up rates on Greek debt and soon enough on the debt of nations like Portugal, Spain and Italy. Should these nations not be able to pay their debts, bond buyers wanted a high enough interest rate to compensate for the risk.
But this is pre-Great Depression economics. How could the EU so misread history and treat with contempt the teachings of John Maynard Keynes, who argued that during recessions governments must expand economies through spending and tax cuts, not the opposite? In practice, making large-scale budget cuts or raising taxes, as Keynes showed, will reduce demand for goods and services just when an increase is needed. Faltering sales will undermine the confidence of businesses far more than fiscal consolidation will embolden them. By ignoring this, European policy makers will deepen, not solve, the financial crisis and millions of people will suffer needlessly.
Indeed, austerity economics has not worked in one single case in Europe in the last two years.
That’s the important point. We have the evidence, and austerity has failed. Yet Europe continues to try it. In this country, milder austerity has caused a public sector depression, yet the resistance to this kind of crisis-inducing policy has at least led to an economy treading water. I don’t think there’s any hope for Europe at this point. There doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to come to their senses.
Germany has the financial wherewithal to lead this rescue. But it is blocking the fiscal union from acting like a single nation with compassion for all Eurozone citizens. It is also refusing to underwrite a substantial new fiscal stimulus—good-old fashioned Keynesianism. Is this a new national arrogance? I hope not. So far, Germany is benefitting from the crisis as investors buy German bonds as safe havens from the turmoil. In fact, the failure to act will soon affect the German economy. It will take financial losses on its banks’ loans to the peripheral nations and its export markets will weaken. The bond buyers who are now gobbling up German debt, thus keeping rates low while they rise in Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain, will likely stop doing so.
The EU leaders must get over their obsession with eliminating deficits. They now want to reduce every country’s deficit to less than 0.5 percent. This is disaster. It will lead to very slow growth for a long time. Instead, they must use temporary deficits to restart growth. Rarely has policymaking been this poor. Sooner than later, the citizens of these nations will say, No more!, and political instability will result.
Indeed.





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Adding to this whole sorry mess:
“Blue-chip names like Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, and Peugeot are among firms bailing out Europe’s ailing banks in a reversal of the established roles of clients and lenders.
“One source with knowledge of the so-called repo deals, or short-term secured lending, said the two U.S. pharmaceutical groups and French car maker were the latest to sign up for them.
. . .
“The triparty market grew at 22.3 percent in the first half of last year, a survey by the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) showed, versus only a modest rise in the overall business, further prove that companies are increasingly accessing the market.”
LINK.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
And we thought times were bad when communism ruled half the earth.
LOL do people really write this stuff about what the ECB should do as if the ECB is just misguided it its policy
all part of the plan. they know what they are doing and they are doing it
you beat me to is ms winkle, this is exactly what they want, a robber baron economic model where the noble don’t work and everyone else works till the day that they die.
you right this as if you think they don’t know that david
I was just pondering that. I agree that it’s part of the plan; it’s the knowing what they’re doing part.
They started out with looting in mind. That requires getting rid of all social welfare functions of govt. So far, so good.
Where I begin to wonder, is how do they continue to loot when all corps and all ‘natural people’ go bankrupt. Have they thought that thru…
German and American banks seem to have declared an Economic WW3 on the world. With the help of their bought off pols.
The GOP and even Ron Paul seem to be in on it and want it to go faster no government regulation on banks for example would mean banks would have a free hand to foreclose on anyone even those people who the banks robo signed bank loan documents for.
When does a junkie think beyond getting their next fix:) We are dealing not with logic but lizard brain pleasure response the drunk who has another drink even though he knows he will throw up.
If DD you are correct, and I think you are, what will the effect of a failed European economy have on the world economy? Any predictions? Will the globalized economy also collapse? Will we see people starving in the streets? What could intervene to prevent a worldwide collapse? I see no movement from the PTB towards going in the direction you say we should be going.
The Powers That Be…in other words the Banks and Mega-Corporations…have decided that destroying governments and impoverishing 99 percent of the planet would be better for their bottom lines than the status quo. And until our political class does something about that, “austerity” will continue. It isn’t a crisis that no one can figure out how to solve. It’s the plan.
Alas, our political class has been completely bought and corrupted by the One Percent. So get ready for an end to home ownership, an end to a meaningful career, an end to being rewarded for merit, an end to health care and retirement; say hello to forced renting from the One Percent, no minimum wage, child labor, temporary and part-time only McJobs, Patronage only for success, and working yourselves to an early death.
Or we can revolt. Them be the choices.
Austerity of language calls this depression a recession.
Clock work orange time is fast approaching when the rich will feel the pain they enjoy imposing on others.
I think the collective mind of international banking is operating on a short-term plan. They’re taking everything, it’s a fire sale, and when the dust settles they’ll have trillions and be out of the various countries. The 99% will be left to sort out the rubble.
On edit – it would’ve been easier to say that they’re just grabbing what they can while they can, knowing that this can’t last.
That’s the precise issue I was pondering, in response to mswinkle saying they know what they are doing.
I think it would be a good thing if they took their money and went to some island. We would be able to sort out the rubble as long as they are not here to keep making rubble. Can you imagine anything better than having Jamie Dimon gone?
But what will the trillions be worth (can’t own stocks in such an environment), and what can they do with their trillions.
If I’d read this comment first I wouldn’t have needed to type 13. Well said.
Having our entire Congress gone… I’d love to see a Survivor: 1%. Put em all on an island and let them compete for food and fire and water :)
We’ve been here before,
I loaded sixteen tons, I tried to get ahead,
Got deeper and deeper in debt instead.
Well, they got what I made, and they wanted some more,
And now I owe my soul at the company store.
Zinn’s version of FDR is that he did what he did to preserve the “system,” i.e. capitalism. Not for the benefit of the 99ers.
So what I’m pondering is that without any FDRs in evidence, doesn’t the system also collapse on the 0.1%ers.
I think an alternative explanation for the hysterical grip austerity has upon the Euro Zone, is that we – the US – are forcing them to do it. The story I link to here http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/state-dept-online-piracy-is-very-serious-but-no-stance-on-sopa.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
discusses a leaked letter from the US Ambassador to Spain to the Spanish government, threatening to put Spain on an international diplomatic blacklist if Spain does not pass a law similar to the so-called “Stop Online Piracy Act” (the internet censorship bill). Spain knuckled to that pressure.
As readers here are likely well aware, the SOPA bill is being pushed at the behest of corporate America, particularly the media and entertainment businesses, which stand to profit handsomely from it. D’ya think our financial oligarchs aren’t profiting at least as well from Euro austerity?
What’s to say that our Treasury counterparts have not told the Europeans to suck it up and impose austerity, and the documents just haven’t hit wikileaks yet?
There’s the short-sighted part. I think everyone is operating on the assumption that they can bleed the economy almost to death…. then let it recover naturally, through old-fashioned consumer spending.
As I understand it there’s an economic tipping point where a complete collapse can’t be stopped. Normal recovery will not be possible. Wealth would need to be redistributed through social stimulus programs.
These arrogant assholes are going to push us to the very brink of this, and I don’t think the actual tipping point is what they perceive it to be. They’re going to push too far, thinking we can be brought back. In reality, they’re going to trigger a downward recessive spiral that will take decades to fix.
As I said twice before, pondering.
And western economies have a long way to go before collapse. There’s still a lot left to loot.
I know you knew:) I am sure the PTB think they are in control and will use an economic collapse as an excuse to shock doctrine away our rights our SS and Medicare to drive down wages, break unions etc.
But they need Scapegoats and the majority of Americans don’t think illegal immigrants have any money. Nobody but the Tea Baggers think Obama has helped African Americans.
Hitler made a point of helping 100% Aryans with the spoils of war and a slave economy. After 10 years of war no spoils I don’t think that trick will work.
Sure there are some Tea Baggers and Ron voters who think that cutting government spending will work. But they are mostly in Red States states that tend to get more money from the Federal Government than they pay in.
If the banks get their way and a new GOP President does what Obama is already doing but faster then they will suffer more.
But pain is unavoidable if your stupid. Either they learn and demand change or they can die.
The choice to live is to demand change.
Trillions in what stocks go down across the board if nobody is buying product. If nobody is buying then banks won’t lend money. The 1% bought stock on margin they borrowed money but to repay that money their loans are based on business plans pre banking crisis consumers buying stuff.
The banks can’t ask for repayment that would force the 1% to declare bankruptcy and trigger Credit Default Swaps the banks bought from other banks as protection against bad loans.
The banks did not have the money then to pay and they don’t have the money now. Another government bank bailout would further depress consumer spending since it would be taken out of whats left of our SS and Medicare.
Yes
They are old enough to bet it won’t happen in their short lifetimes left.
They may have miscalculated .
O will accelerate in second term. He won’t have to worry about getting reelected.
I ashamed to admit it took me until today to figure that obvious one out.
On that I can agree no junkie ever thinks they will overdose heck these guys think they are still in control:)
We haz a winnah.
I think that is part of the plan. this system collapses but they own all the important resources and might. people get tired of fighting and lawlessness they come up with a solution. they control all the power in that new solution and on it goes.
will some at the top get shaken out. sure, but the majority will not. they have already been in power for centuries and they are not about to lose it
As Agatha Christie would have Poirot say, “All these complications mean that it is really a simple crime. All these details are misdirection”. Forget deficits, forget interest rates, forget currency values, forget all of that. What are they actually accomplishing?
They are crushing the welfare state. They are breaking all the protections and security won by the working classes through national political processes since the end of WW II. By having job security, unemployment insurance, comfortable wages, vacations, health care and housing working people have been protected from the desperate insecurity of job loss and wage cuts. They have had some leverage and power to push back against the owners and managers and claim a portion of the profits out of the hands of the executives and stockholders.
According to the masters, the workers have been pampered and lazy and greedy and complacent under this protection and they have come to live too high on the hog. They need a full bitter dose of austerity to bring them around to the truth of who is in charge here. It is now time to fight back and break all the structure of the labor parties and the welfare state. To do that they have to take control of national budgets away from the politicians and put it in the hands of people who are not vulnerable to political pressure. And they are doing it like the gangsters and loan sharks have always done it: by letting people carelessly running themselves into debt and then turning the screws and foreclosing, taking the collateral.
And finally if there is no collateral left to take, they take possession of your body and you become a slave.
Pay attention to what people DO, not what they SAY.
I did not think about that your right and just like Bush trying to privatize SS Obama will claim he has political capital and a mandate. Something a first term GOPer won’t have and as you point out no reelection worries.
I think the 0.1%’s are betting on the police and military to protect them. The 0.1%’s are looking for the next big fix, the last drops of middle class assets. At this point we will either change the system or become the Naomi Klein shock doctrine economy–one, nine, ninety system (one percent of people own ninety percent of assets, nine percent of people own nine percent, and 90 percent of people at bottom own 1% of assets.)
For you Isaac Asimov fans, (I refrence the Foundation trilogy) it’s Seldon Crisis
Agreed but if it gets bad enough the army will desert look at Iran when the Shah fell. Also a world wide depression makes their stock worthless.
Ye old comprador shibboleth. You are getting your desired efficiency, so stop whining.
That’s what capitalism’s ultimately about, baby.
I guess one can dream … (but please use /sarcasm tag for your own credibility)
Be serious.
“what can they do with their trillions.”
Play poker 7 nights a week,,,
Total incomprehension of capitalism, comrade. This is the psychopathic, predatory brain in financial warfare exhibiting optimal Liberal rationality. Those who claim it’s irrational will be functionally dead.
We are all indians now.
FDR did what he did FOR for the benefit of the 99ers (there was no alternative).
Now the 99′s can’t be saved.
Sorry.
Exactly. Financial warmongers hire Krugman-types to complain about the stupidity of the victims.
Sound familiar?
What, for the benefit of the economy? Still believe that nonsense?
You’re mistaken. This is not a concern; it’s a feature.
Cruel, foolish, comprador nonsense. All this blather about leaving people behind has perforated your cranium.
Exactly. Financial MAD. Discipline for the investment class.
Yet you still believe they care about the economy.
The axe of the economy is not poised above their necks.
No. It collapses around them.
You can’t be serious. Before the crash the stock market players were trumpeting how they had looted enough to fuel their families for generations. They haven’t now lost track of the future.
What do you think drones are for, comrade?
Almost there. The compelling argument for the 1% is neither power-lust nor greed. It is necessity. That is why they can ignore all the shabby proletarian moralisms and flaccid arguments that they know not what they do. No. You know not what they must do.
This results not from some bourgeois delusion; this is a technocratic, calculated, controlled demolition. A harvest.
Please spare us the sweet dreams of misguided tyrants; this is business, as they have always warned you.
Yes. A good bet, actually.
Yes, do. The Mullahs took charge. The classic alternate to skinning that ignorant public. Not to agree that the domestic mercenaries will revolt. They won’t. Try again.
Stock is for suckerZ; they’ve got hard assets.
Ooh, I love that jolt of Schadenfreude I get when petit-capitalists tell the real thing how to do bidness. Delicious.
I really wish the left would stop imitating the right in the austerity-stimulus debate. Austerity isn’t always right. Neither is stimulus. We need to avoid blanket statements like, “austerity simply doesn’t work in the midst of a recession.” Stimulus is needed when demand is the problem. But not all financial crises and recessions are caused by demand problems.
I never saw a Board that wanted to see a 5 year plan that did more than do what we were already doing but will us making more money from doing it – futurist thinking died in Insurance with the retirement of the actuary in that position at the John Hancock in the early 90′s, followed by the new CEO selling a book on the importance of branding and telling my friend the Chief Actuary that pricing and matching investment risk to actuarial risk was not important, only branding and marketing made the company money – The CEO (Dave D’Alessandro) worked a sell out of the company to Manufacture’s of Canada and was paid several ten’s of millions by them for his efforts (actually a good thing for the company as it put actuaries, albeit Canadian ones, back in power and kept the company safe through the current mess – unlike our MET and Pru who lost half their value after rejecting all but investment and sales folks in management. No – I doubt there is any “plan”. The folks running things in America are not smart enough to plan beyond the next years bonus.
Besides the Austrian School is home team to the Germans – so they are just supporting the local team – like Bush supporting Chicago School over that John Maynard Keynes, Baron Keynes of Tilton, that BRITISH guy.
That’s not “the left”. Those are the Capital apologists; they express regret because they can’t do any better.
So, what caused this depression, IYO?
They don’t have a plan because they cratered the economy? Or because they weren’t inventive? While your CEO wasn’t inventing, Wall Street was inventing exemplary kwazy bullshit. Not every capitalist is a genius, but they sure know which way the wind is blowing.
The top dogs have plans, comrade.
Ahhh, the good ol’ days when there was a capable counter check to the excesses of Capitalism. I think I kinda miss the USSR.