The Federal Reserve, Neil Irwin told us earlier in the week, cannot do much for the majority of Americans in a struggling economy. They can only put money in the hands of the well-to-do, in the hopes that they spend more and increase economic growth, which will then trickle down to the masses.
I think there’s more evidence of good monetary policy leading to broadly shared economic benefits, but in this moment, in 2012, that’s mostly right. At least at the direct level, the rich are more affected by bond purchases and interest rate shifts. The time when the Fed could have really helped the mass of society would have been in the housing bubble period, from 2002-2007, by using the consumer protection responsibility it had to stop illegal lending practices, and by discouraging the mortgage frenzy in any and every way possible.
The Fed releases the transcripts of its meetings five years late, so we’re only now finding out about what the Fed thought during that time. In fact, we just got the transcripts from late 2006, almost the height of the bubble. And here’s what they were saying.
As the housing bubble entered its waning hours in 2006, top Federal Reserve officials marveled at the desperate antics of home builders seeking to lure buyers.
The officials laughed about the cars that builders were offering as signing bonuses, and about efforts to make empty homes look occupied. They joked about one builder who said that inventory was “rising through the roof.”
But the officials, meeting every six weeks to discuss the health of the nation’s economy, gave little credence to the possibility that the faltering housing market would weigh on the broader economy, according to transcripts that the Fed released Thursday. Instead they continued to tell one another throughout 2006 that the greatest danger was inflation — the possibility that the economy would grow too fast.
“We think the fundamentals of the expansion going forward still look good,” Timothy F. Geithner, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told his colleagues when they gathered in Washington in December 2006.
Some officials, including Susan Bies, a Fed governor, suggested that a housing downturn actually could bolster the economy by redirecting money to other kinds of investments.
And there was general acclaim for Alan Greenspan, who stepped down as chairman at the beginning of the year, for presiding over one of the longest economic expansions in the nation’s history. Mr. Geithner suggested that Mr. Greenspan’s greatness still was not fully appreciated, an opinion now held by a much smaller number of people.
Right, so Geithner doesn’t come off so hot with the effusive praise of Greenspan; maybe he thought at this point that Greenspan could get him his next job. But actually none of them come off well. These are supposed to be the most plugged-in economic policymakers in the country, the best and the brightest. They completely missed a $8 trillion housing bubble that was obvious to anyone going to open houses at that time, watching bidding wars break out in front of them, seeing prices inflate and inflate, having mortgage brokers tell them that “nobody does a fixed-rate mortgage anymore,” etc.
I was one of those people. I thankfully never pulled the trigger on a condo at that time; my life would have taken a much different course. But just by virtue of being mildly immersed in that world, just for a few weeks, I apparently knew more about the unsustainable nature of the housing market than everyone on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
They completely missed a catastrophic bubble that had disastrous consequences for the nation. Banks and lenders were making money so they preferred not to see the problems that lie ahead. By 2006 the bubble already showed signs of popping, and still Fed policymakers were tragically ignorant. This is completely embarrassing. Dean Baker, one of the few economists who actually saw the truth at that time, writes:
At this point, the Fed should not have an image that could possibly be tarnished further. If its record had been reported accurately, everyone would be well aware of its incredible incompetence as a manager of the economy.
btw, as noted in the article, many of the people at these Fed meetings are still in top policy making positions. This shows that the U.S. economy still produces good-paying jobs for people without skills.
Can’t add to that.





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About FDL News Desk
like bailing out banks.
Yeah, re-direct that money to benefit the PTB!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K99LvfeWBoc&feature=related
Somethin’ ain’t right. Again.
This really isn’t much of a surprise as Democrats for years used to think TheBenBernank was incompetent when Bush was President…then they sang a whole new tune when Obama re-nominated him with the Democrats instead burying their heads in the sand while acting like what they had said before never happened.
The choice is simple. Either you believe that everybody involved was terminally stupid about how markets work and what bubbles look like, or, alternatively, you believe that their cronies were making so much money day-to-day that everybody knew it was a game of musical chairs but nobody wanted to be the skunk at the party by raising the alarm for the suckers. If you are dumb enough to believe the former, then just kill yourself now, because things will never get better for you.
These clowns are all disciples of Milton Friedman’s Chicago School of Economics and embrace disaster capitalism for their own benefit. The sooner the “Chicago” element is purged from positions of power the better.
You can’t help believing that it is at least possible that they were lying: they knew it wasn’t OK but there was some personal benefit to them in pretending that everything was fine. The other possibility is the condition of being closed to any other message than “what is good for the banks, is good for the people.” Bankers are a breed apart and it is perfectly possible that nothing penetrates their consciousness. Whatever the truth, the net result of the last 12 years is that we are better informed, more sophisticated and more vigilante than we were before Bush came in to office. So I do honestly think it IS now game over for these guys.
“We keep making the wrong mistakes.”
Yogi Berra
And then we should not be looking at that sleazy ‘pic’ of baby Timmy…Has he paid his taxes yet?
I thknk the questions we have to ask outselves is, are these people stupid, ignorant, overly optimistic, or (my personal favorite) generally unaffected by all this and don’t really give a shit one way or the other.
Sorry, regarding my #10, I didn’t take your option into consideration. Definately has legs.
They’re affected by it. They increase their wealth at our expense.
He REALLY IS a sleazy SOB. He’s one of the main reasons I will quite likely NOT vote for Obama again.
Ahhhhhhhh, the old heads I win, tails you lose corrollary.
Ed Gramlich from the University of Michigan, who was probably the only Tobin student on the board, fingered the housing bubble early on, and said so at the Board meetings. Greenspan ignored him. I believe he died before the meetings reviewed here.
Such contempt.
On explanations, I go mainly for stupid, which I think probably covers 75 percent or so. These guys got educated at a time when econ departments everywhere were devoting their time to showing how wonderful the market is, as opposed simply to investigating how it works. Bernanke is part of that generation, and is not the worst of them by far. The worst came out of Chicago and its various offshoots like Minnesota.
Absolutely a great video! Thanks, PeasantParty!
One of the best 10 minutes I’ve ever spent. Ex-intelligence officer, wide experience, on why citizen bloggers are absolutely critical. Oh, and a lot more.
I always felt that downturns were opportunities. The problems is there’s no way to time them right. That doesn’t apply to the people that control the money supply. They come out ahead no matter what. They gain more in a downturn that anyone else for reasons already mentioned.
Bernanke’s pretty stupid for sure. Have you read his essays on the Great Depression? Such ignorance and SUCH bad economics methodologies.
Opportunities for what? John Paulson did OK, but one manager is fewer than one could have expected by simple probability out of the hundreds.
Buy low, sell high. Something I don’t have the knack for. It doesn’t take much expertise if you have an unlimited money supply.
Marcy Kaptur Smashes tim geithner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGczVEWKgl8
If one were cynical, one might argue that the reason central banks MUST be independent is to hide their incompetence as long as possible.
Incompetant or culpable, either way these people should be gone.
Yeah, Knut, all the multimillionaires got that way by being stupid. Your problem is, you just couldn’t manage to be stupid enough to get your millions./s Since Reagan, every single act of malfeasance has sought to be excused from accountability by claiming stupidity rather than bad intent. Every one. And as long as so many continue to have such a naive and forgiving disposition, it will never change.
That is reality, willful theft. Nothing to do with incompetence. Theft, Murder all by design.
eCAHN, market timing is not as tough as you seem to believe. I declared the housing bubble to be such in March, 2005, and I have no special expertise in real estate, just in markets and trading generally.
Nothing rules out being stupid at every link in the chain and also (or as a result of) being able to suck off the public teat.
And nothing rules out being BOTH stupid AND having bad intent.
Plenty of evidence for both. No need to choose one or the other.
I spent my career doing work oriented toward market timing. I have a lot of experience about how possible it is.
But be of your own opinion.
Especially when you know someone else will pay for your mistakes.
And this is really the essence of what’s happening – the people are being educated, awakened. There’s no way to teach oneself that one is naive, by definition, so it’s an awareness that can only be given to us from someone outside us.
As soon as the people wake up and start acting like mature adults and not helpless children this will stop.
And so the ones with whom lies the responsibility for our condition, and the power to change it, are…us.
Moral hazard par excellance.
Alpha male societies are evolutionarily conditioned to act like followers, not to think for themselves.
I know your credentials, and respect them. I also know the industry during your time was heavily skewed toward the buy and hold mentality. I will just give you two facts, and leave it at that. In October, 2007, I sold 10 S&P 500 futures contracts at 1553.50, with a stop at 1554.50. It was by far the biggest trade I ever put on, worth $2,500 per S&P point. I was predicting and trying to capture a catastrophic market collapse. I got stopped out at 1555.50, which was the absolute highest price we ever saw again, until the market had dropped to S&P 665.70 in March, 2009. On Friday, , March 6, 2009, I bought the S&P 500 futures contract at 666.00, and sent out an advisory email that very weekend predicting that to be the bottom, and a rally to 1100-1200 on the S&P 500. Those are facts. I could document them for you, but hope you will accept my word, and factor that into your opinion.
rc…..hypothetically speaking…..If sopmeone told you to buy Alcoa now, would you do that??????
So put yourself into the same category as Paulson. Congratulations. Still fewer than probability would have picked out.
Yep. Inflation. It has been that way since at least the late 70s. One thing all the cronys agree on is to stop the demon inflation. Inflation ordinarily goes up when people get employed. So, the obvious answer, is to keep a stock of unemployed around to hedge against inflation. And why you ask? Well if you bought a bond, you don’t want nasty inflation cutting into your earnings.
But in this case, this case, the plutocracy was joining in all the fun and making money on the bubble.
I don’t do individual stocks, just the overall market as represented by the S&P 500. It’s easier for me to know and evaluate info that affects the overall market than any individual company.
Well, all I have to add is thank God this Geithner dude is now on Team “O”.
This just illustrates the depth of the Dem Economic Team bench. Timmy G, Jonny “MF” Corzine, Jan Yellen…WoW! that’s some mighty economic intellectual capital waiting to be spent by Team “O” come General election time.
At a minimum, stories like this are why Frauds and Financial Terrorists such as The-Man-Formerly-Known-As-”Maestro” and his ideas have been rightly discarded into the wastebasket forever.
Even a stopped clock, rc. LOLOL
Jez fuckin’ wit ya.
During the era when the new Lite beers were launched. With less calories, and they were fewer filling.
The point is, timing works, especially at extremes, and it’s not plausible that all the experts, at the top of an historic bubble in real estate, all say they could not conceive that prices could reverse.
Yomomma lol. ;-)
As to the overall market, I feel we are getting close to another big decline, probably from about the Dow 12,650-12,700 level, as best I can estimate right now.
I am watching for that from a previous mention of yours.
Thanks.
I called the same drop several months ago, it topped out at 12,716 and dropped to 10,400. A great trade. Then I called a drop from 12,100, which also worked for about 1000 points. This is what I’m working on now.
They are among the 1%. The need to go. I say end the Fed, but at minimum, their boss (Obama) and the entire monetary policy team need to go.
“The time when the Fed could have really helped the mass of society would have been in the housing bubble period, from 2002-2007, by using the consumer protection responsibility it had to stop illegal lending practices, and by discouraging the mortgage frenzy in any and every way possible.”
I wonder if there was coordination between the Fed and Bush’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)? During the artificially-inflated fraud-fueled housing bubble, the Fed refused to use its authority to protect consumers from the top down, while the OCC in the Bush White House blocked efforts by state and local officials to protect customers from the bottom up.
IOW, someone (or a cabal of criminal conservatives) decided that nothing, absolutely nothing, was going to be allowed to interfere with all the housing bubble-related fraud (and profit grabbing) that was occurring. Thus, silly things like federal, state and local consumer protections laws had to be annulled or not enforced.
Remember, all these housing bubble shenanigans happened entirely during the Bush administration years, during the time a hardcore right-wing administration with an anti-regulatory and corporate-ass-kissing obsession was running our nation’s executive branch. ENRON in 2001 was the first sign of what was to come later in the disastrous housing bubble, with both ENRON and the housing bubble following the same corruption-driven pattern; after regulatory law was crippled or killed outright, the lawless ran wild, with any government “sheriffs” blind-folded, hog-tied, slung across a horse’s saddle and driven out of town.
ENRON could have been stopped early in 2001 before so much damage was done if only the Bush administration had allowed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to investigate what was happening to energy markets on the West Coast. All the corporate crimes driving the housing bubble could have been uncovered and stopped early on if only the Bush administration hadn’t unleashed the OCC to cripple efforts by state and local officials to enforce state and local consumer protection laws. Ongoing housing bubble-related court cases were put on hold while the OCC took all these consumer protection officials all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, where Republican-appointed justices ruled that all the crimes driving the housing bubble could continue unchecked, unregulated.
So, hearing that the Fed fell down on the job, refusing to use it’s consumer protection authority to rein-in the lawlessness happening in the housing bubble, is just another indication of lawless Vulture Capitalism being allowed to run wild during the Bush years, making me wonder if any coordination existed between top levels of the Bush administration (like at the OCC) and the Fed. Emails? Other communications indicating criminal coordination? And what about at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? Were top officials at these places being pressured by Bush officials to join in on this Wall Street feeding frenzy involving fraudulent mortgages, bogus derivatives packages, all this fraud, fraud and more fraud driving the housing bubble?
The problem, as I see it, is Obama KEPT these guys. They most definitely are NOT stupid AND were warned of the dangerous bubble. See the link in Dayen’s post at Geithner doesn’t come off so hot. It’s to a Huffington Post story published yesterday about the release of these tapes.
Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich warned The Fed board for several years leading up to 2006 about the dangers to the economy in the subprime housing market. Greenspan and others CHOSE not to heed the warnings. I recall the Time magazine cover story in late 2008 or early 2009 about the culprits to blame for the Great Recession. Greenspan was in the top 10.
So, my point is these bad guys CHOSE not to heed the warnings. Since we know they are not stupid, they were blinded by the Profit Motive. It is the only plausible explanation.
The thing is Obama kept the same people, CHOSE not to prosecute the perpretators of pervasive fraud of the subprime housing market, and now is blaming the idiotic Congress.
That’s a fine mess you’ve got us in, as the saying goes.
Right on! Thanks for the info!
I agree the people were living in a bubble as well. Ignorance and brainwashing from the mainstream media. I will not blame the people when there is so much misinformation. My wife wrote about it many times.she is quite smart I think..http://whereiscassandra.blogspot.com/2007/07/irrational-exuberance-runs-amok.html
Since the beginning of the 2000 campaign, incompetence in America has been rewarded. Competent people lost their homes and jobs. Incompetent president led to an incompetent nation. Rick Perry should be winning.
Since the down-turn, I have noticed that high payed experts are getting fired, while low payed idiot friends and relatives are scoring the jobs. You would think the best and the brightest would be kept, but that is not what is happening in the job world. I guess this condition started with our government and federal reserve.