Greek bailout talks have deadlocked again, but at the moment the culprit is not the hedge funds seeking a higher payout on the distressed debt they bought, but the “troika” of the EU, ECB and the IMF. They gave Greece a Monday deadline to accept bailout terms. And those terms, frankly, are totally insane.
The deal calls for Greece to run a primary budget surplus (not counting interest payments on debt) in 2013 of over 2% of GDP, rising to over 4% by 2014. That implies massive cuts to public spending in the middle of a 5-year recession, if not a depression. As Antonis Samaras, leader of the New Democracy Party, told the Financial Times, “They’re asking for more recession than the country can take.” Samaras also has highlighted that the troika seeks cuts in private sector wages as part of the deal, of up to 25%. There would also be a 35% cut in supplementary pensions.
If Greece fails to agree to this today, the troika will likely suspend debt payments, forcing the country into default. European leaders said explicitly that they would not fund a continuing bailout unless Greece agreed to the troika’s demands.
While talks resume today, it’s worth pausing to note just how crazy this all is. Greece has been suffering under an austerity regime for the last two years. This has caused a depression level of suffering in the country. And significantly, it has not in any way reduced the country’s debt burden. In fact, it has expanded it.
Greece’s debt rose to 159.1 percent of its gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2011 from 138.8 percent a year earlier, according to data released Monday that illustrates the country’s worsening economic straits after two years of austerity budgets.
The data, reported by the European Union statistics agency Eurostat in Luxembourg as part of a new series, underscored the urgency of the talks continuing Monday in Athens, where Greek officials and international lenders were trying to reach agreements that would make possible the release of new financing to stave off a Greek default next month [...]
Two years of austerity measures have weighed on employment, with the jobless rate at 19 percent, and hurt government tax revenues. The economy is expected to show a contraction of 6 percent in 2011, the International Monetary Fund has estimated.
Shrinking the G.D.P. side of the equation makes it harder to bring down Greece’s debt ratio to a more manageable level, and adds pressure for additional taxes and spending cuts.
That last sentence shows the upside-down logic here. Austerity has led to a 6% drop in GDP. That GDP drop raises the debt to GDP ratio. And so we need…. more austerity?
There’s no economic underpinning for this. Greece is being pounded into dust. I suspect what Matt Yglesias says is at least partially right: this has nothing to do with economics but German politics. Bailing out Greece is unpopular, so there has to be this moral flavor to it, where Greece gets punished for their sins. This only leads to higher deficits and more bailouts, but the beatings will continue until morale improves, I guess.
Apparently the Greek Finance Minister is too busy campaigning for the leadership of his party to engage with the talks, so the Greek leadership isn’t entirely blameless. But given the context of “Greek leadership” when the troika is asking them to sacrifice their own people, perhaps the best thing to do is to stay away




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WSJ: Greece Close To Announcing 20% Cut In Minimum Wages-Sources
Let the supply-side boom begin!
I wonder if there’s some sort of construct here other than the most obvious (or in addition to it). A Kabuki dance for show covers all.
Maybe it’s all about trappings of Greece leaving the Euro. Maybe it’s already been decided — now there has to be some way around the EU prohibition against expelling a member or a member seceding on its own.
Such a prohibition would not be invoked or even thought of in normal times. Its failure in a crisis (which is specifically what it’s for) would prove EU has been a house of cards from the gitgo. Gotta handle that one gingerly, on the sly as long as possible.
This wouldn’t be happening — not in its extremist form that we’re seeing now — if the Greeks had paler skin tones.
Do the Germans not care that by grinding Greece into dust, they’re killing their own economy? Or are they so blinded by the “kill the beast” talk being pushed by Merkel et al that they can’t see this?
Just when Germany thought it had rid itself of the weight of global pariah status brought on by Nazism, now it finds itself enslaved to a new form of bigotry.
Feel the love:
Greek MP’s raise the issue of German war reparations
If they could I suspect the Greek people would elect me president of Greece or whatever they call their high poobah. They would elect me even though I am an American who has never even visited Greece. They would elect me because I would tell the “troika” to eat shit and die.
By the way. Blaming the Germans for this is beyond stupid. These problems were created by and are being exacerbated by the International Banking Cartel.
Certainly, but what they want has no basis in logic. It’s like the banksters are itching for a revolution. But even the rightist parties want no part in this latest nonsense. They have elections to win after all, and don’t want to end up like Mussolini.
The Greeks should just pull out of the EU and the euro. That’d shut up Merkel right quick. (And if they put out feelers to, say, Putin or Chavez — either of whom would love to embarrass conservatives like Merkel — the Greeks could likely get economic assistance from either Russia or Venezuela.)
Exactly. It’s based in large part on the German racist myth of Lazy Brown-Skinned Folk (namely, Greek and Turkish “gastarbeiter” or guest workers that have in reality been working long hours propping up the German economy).
Agreed. Fuck the Germans and the banking cartel.
So, will this default if it happens trigger the credit default swaps, mostly held I am told by US banks?
What then? Another bailout?
What has happened to the original bondholders for Greek debt? I understand they were more or less hedgefunds betting on the bailout?
Now the bondholders seem to be mostly govt run banks? How did they come to buy Greek debt and why?
P.S. OT but is anyone keeping up with this
Attempts to cool the temperature in the No. 2 reactor of the disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have only partially succeeded despite the injection of more cooling water.
The temperature in the reactor has gradually risen from about 45 degrees Celsius registered on January 27th.
In the past 4 days, the temperature has climbed more than 20 degrees to above 70 degrees.
The plant operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company began pumping more water into the reactor at around 1:30 AM on Monday. But at 7 AM, the temperature stood at 73.3 degrees and at 5 PM, 69.2 degrees.
We don’t need no water, let the mother fu**er burn.
I hope they all collapse. Every last stinking bank.
I am with you…they ought to pull out but same as here,those who are driving the train are playing for the Banks.
Greek PM decided to pull the referendum…he was going to let the Greek people decide if they wanted to stay in the EU or get out……The Greek PM decided not to after meeting with Merkel & Obama…..
It’s the same mentality & corruption that exist here that the Bankers must be saved at the expense of all else exist in Greece.
Look how the Free Trade Agreements have devastated our America yet Obama was “gongho” to sign even more Trade agreements with Columbia & South Korea.
Do you suspect that German citizens, as a whole, a group of human beings who resemble, in their hubris, American citizens, are blameworthy, SD, or are the vast majority of Germans, with all their prejudice and sense of superiority, as misled and manipulated as their American counterparts?
I am curious about that sense of things, here at FDL, and hope that some who comment here might address this question.
DW
I’m speaking only of the government, not the citizens. Like here the citizens haven’t a clue as to what their govt and banks are doing to them and that’s our fault. We allowed corporate media to form the agenda for the country. We allowed the formation of an oligarchy not seen in many years. The many lone voices in the wilderness couldn’t compete with the message of prosperity via credit flaunted by every commercial on radio and tv.
Very scary stuff going down (no pun intended) at Fukushima, huh? **Shiver**
There is the German citizen and then there are the 1% like the Krup family.
The obvious solution is for Greece to hire Goldman Sachs advisors. It will soon be flowing in currency and all will appear well.
One has to look hard to find out what’s going on at Fukushima. The nuclear industry certainly doesn’t want the disaster getting a lot of press here.
They’re not asking for more recession than the country can take. They’re asking for a revolution. Either way, Greece’s days on the euro are numbered. Better for them to default now while there is still a functioning government.
As someone else said: this is the third time in a hundred years that Germany is at the center of a crisis. Well, so is France, I suppose. Neither of them can find their way around the corner.
It would be a mistake thought to say germany is harming itself over greece. Greece is just too small to matter and that is their sin. I think Germany would be just as pleased if greece decided to leave the Eurozone, but if they want to stay in, and they do, then they must kiss the ring.
I thought that was the unspoken gist of your comment, SD, but felt that the underlying plight of “the people” in EVERY “too-big-to …” country needed to be made clear.
Thank you for doing so, as solidarity is necessary amongst “the people”, worldwide … which I know that you know and daily make clear.
DW
That would be my preference as well, but I think it’s wishful thinking. The banks will be protected.
Still, any bailout of US banks due to the credit default swaps will be even more politically unpopular in an election year than last time. That wouldn’t stop Obama at all of course, but I hope it makes him sweat a little. Let the hypocritical repubs run with it for all I care.
I consider that this must be clearly said, when we speak of the “too-big-to …” nations, we mean the 1% … and we must consistently make that clear, BSbafflesbrains, just as we must make clear that the political class in each of those nations also includes the media …
DW
The PTB here and in Europe are determined to keep the people repressed. The people of Greece are being given the chance to take their country back from the liars, thieves and killers. I hope they make the best of it. We’re working our way towards that point. It’s going to take longer but it’s comin’.
Never. Give. Up.
I can’t imagine that anyone in Washington is keen on bailing the banks out again. The Teahadists, the left, the unions, and damn near everyone else would scream bloody murder.
Just a hint of wanting to bail the banksters out again would be political suicide. That said, there are so many pols with their heads so far up their donors’ asses that they’d be blind to that fact.
With my tattered little economist hood on, I say that calling for a budget surplus under severe recession conditions —and 2 to 4% of GDP is a huge one— goes well beyond bad advice with all that the world knows about these situations. It is just an outrage, an outrage. It is downright immoral.
My feeling is that the 1% are less Nationalistic than materialistic. Nationalism is just another wedge issue to them to use to pit people against people; so where will killing off Greece’s economy put people in France, Spain or even Germany and England? Greeks will riot with this austerity chosen and implemented by the rich. Not even the 1% could think otherwise at this point, right?
Agreed, completely, SD.
DW
Exactly so.
So how far into Capital, Vol 2 are ya? *poke, poke*
I am in complete agreement, BSbafflebrains, and hope that all of “the people” of this world, of every single “nation”, may come to see as clearly and as well as you …
Humanity’s future well-being quite literally depends upon such shared and embraced vision.
DW
The hard part is getting to the guy with a house, an SUV, a pickup, a boat and a decent job (for now). Only when his world collapses around his ears will he wake up.
Laggard that I am, SD, I’m still digging deeper into Vol. 1.
But I’m coming along … behind ya, as always (with a growing bunch of notebooks and cramping ink-stained fingers …)
;~DW
You’re reading Vol 1? Really? Far fuckin’ out! It goes a lot easier with Harvey’s lectures. It’s a bitch tryin’ to get through any of the 3 volumes on one’s own. Been there, done that.
4 volumes if ya count the 3 volumes of Theories of Surplus Value as 1, as Marx did.
Back to work.
Namaste
Time.
Patience is.
I’d say “things” are moving along (accelerating, actually).
Would that pain were not the beginning of understanding, but zen, that seems to be where humanity must “be”, now, to fully get “here”, that there will be true understanding and solidarity with all of “us” getting “there”.
I am still mourning the loss of my friend, Mary Beth Perdue, as she was a being who encouraged human understanding with rare and graceful compassion and sensibility … much as you engage and encourage. SD.
We shall never give up.
DW
Indeed….lots of folks can’t OR won’t see the forest for the trees. Only when their VISA card is “denied” at WalMart will they too join the rebellion.
Which pier is that damn boat full of tea parked at again????
“Although I am besieged by several thousand troops under the command of General Santa Ana….I shall never surrender or retreat. Victory or death.”
Colonel William Barrett Travis
Commandant of the Alamo
“to General Sam Houston”
P.S. I do hope we have better success than did Col Travis. But the sentiment is appropriate.
LOL I’ll say one thing, you sure know how to make an old sailor cringe. LOL
Charlie had 2 options: victory or death
Some things never change.
You could say he got both. As a martyr for the cause he lost the battle but helped win the war. Fun fact…Santa Anna ended up in a rooming house somewhere chewing “chicle” (tree sap) a habit he picked up during his reign in Mexico and the founder of Chiclets chewing gum got the idea from him.
No kidding? And I thought all we got from him was the idea for Santa Claus. ;-)
Santa Anna is to Santa Claus what Obama is to John Adams.
I can see it now: Goldman Sachs Stadium, (formerly The Parthenon). I hope all eleven million Greeks simultaneously face north and give the one finger salute at the stroke of Midnight tonight!
Take your time with V I. Take all the time you need. Once you grasp the methodology, a whole new perspective opens up, an interdisciplinary one, which is most fruitful.
OCCUPY has hit Greece. Workers have taken over one hospital.
The capitalists pigs don’t know what they are in for. Remember Che!
Austerity ism the newspeak word for totalitarianism. The Arab spring continues.
Have bookmarked Znet. I’ve overlooked a valuable resource. Thx for the reminder.
Occupy everything.
Greece imported in 2011 48 BN EUR and exported only 20 BN EUR. That translates into spending about 2-1/2 times more abroad than one earns abroad, and this after 2-3 years of recession. What part of self-destruction do I need to understand?
Altogether, the Greek banking sector lost 57 BN EUR in liquidity during 2011 (21 BN EUR current account deficit and 36 BN EUR deposit withdrawals/capital flight). That “hole” was financed by the ECB. This means that European tax payers have sent 57 BN EUR to Greece so that Greeks could import 2-1/2 times as much as they exported and withdraw 36 BN EUR from bank accounts. A smart use of tax payers’ money’s?
http://klauskastner.blogspot.com/2012/02/on-purpose-of-financing.html
I was under the impression that the Greek government’s reliance on advice from Goldman Sacks was what precipitated this crisis. Am I wrong?
We now know that the defenders of the Alamo were actually fighting for the right to perpetuate slavery in Tejas. Kind of removes the luster and heroism of the whole event.
The hard facts as to the austerity result to date must be pounded home.
Three years ago unemployment was a “high” 8%.
Today it is pushing 20% with age 18-30 nearing 50%
And that does not count “discouraged”
And Greece has a new category of worker – working but not get paid in cash – just in IOU’s that likely will never be honored. Many have their employer in debt to them for more than 6 months wages.
The rich meanwhile continue to pay near zero in tax as Germany demands a tighter squeeze on the poor and middle class. Makes one understand the attitudes of ancestors toward Germany.
Greece leaving the Eurozone is intriguing.
When the Euro was set up it took about two years to get it fully into circulation. It took a long time to print enough new money so shortages wouldn’t occur. In the meantime the Euro functioned vicariously just as an accounting tool, and Europeans used their old national paper currencies. Each had had its respective exchange rate frozen against the Euro during that interim.
So, suppose Greece leaves the Euro. Would it take as long to get the Drachma up and running again? Two years would be disasterous. But maybe their central bank has a huge horde of paper drachmas waiting, hidden out of sight in vaults “just in case.” The Greek PTB insist there is no such horde, because acknowledging such (if indeed it exists) would make the unthinkable thinkable.
Additionally suppose they throw the switch for the drachma, and it deflates rapidly. That’s expected. If it loses, say, half of its value or more couldn’t Greece then run out of paper currency? Then, how long would it take to print new bills in, say, the 1 million denomination which, a month later, would buy a stick of chewing gum?
Yes, no doubt that was their motive.
At the same time the pretext was that in 1835 the Mexican government had renounced the constitution of 1825 which caused rebellion and, at least temporarily, secession throughout Mexico in Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Yucatan, and other states, as well as Texas.
Many native Mexicans in Texas joined the rebellion. Years ago, I read a book about how they were subsequently sold out by the Texans.
This tough love program has been going on long before the banker created crisis.
http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=10ATHENS246#para-142082-4
23 Feb 2010
4. (SBU) Even before all the international attention, developments
in the real economy did not leave any doubts as to the seriousness
of the situation. According to traders’ associations and chambers
of commerce, 10,000 companies and enterprises were forced to close
in Greece in 2009. Hundreds of downtown shops in Athens have
closed, once-crowded cafes and restaurants are half empty, and the
famous Greek nightlife exists only on weekends. Banks have
tightened lending standards (credit growth slipped to 4.2 percent
in December 2009 from 15.9 percent in December 2008), and Greek
media are full of stories of people scaling back their spending,
from retail to travel to major purchases like automobiles, and for
the first time, paying doctors’ bills in installments. The
official unemployment rate increased to 10.6 percent (November
2009) from 7.4 percent in 2008, but the Confederation of Greek
Workers claims that this greatly underestimates the true figure,
which they claim is closer to 17 percent. Labor Minister Andreas
Loverdos revealed in Parliament in mid-January that, although
Greece’s updated SGP projects 9.9 percent unemployment for 2010 and
10.5 percent for 2011 and 2012, the actual numbers will exceed 20
percent of the labor force, which could mean as many as one million
Greeks without a job. Other indicators also show the depth of the
economic crisis in the real economy. Greek exports dropped 17
percent in 2009, compared to the previous year; industrial
production dropped 7.6 percent in December 2009, compared with the
same month in 2008; and building activity fell by 28.1 percent in
volume in January-November 2009, compared with the corresponding
period in 2008.
I doubt if the Greek people really elect their leaders, but have been given a choice between a few candidates who belong to ruling families. The rulers don’t share the pain of the lessers.
This is interesting:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Organization_17_November