Noam Scheiber has an excerpt of his new book on Obama’s economic policy in The New Republic. It focuses on 2011 and the series of bruising negotiations with Republicans over the deficit. And it includes the now-familiar internal White House struggles between deficit reduction and economic stimulus, with deficit reduction winning out through 2010 and most of 2011 until that old-time populism returned to the fore. (Scheiber wrongly adds that “The decision to focus on the deficit in 2011 was defensible at the time” because the economy didn’t break down until later – even the most cursory look at the available economic evidence in 2010 and 2011 shows that the economy badly needed help and not austerity.)
Scheiber reports that Treasury Department officials were the ones desperate to increase the debt limit as part of the Bush tax cut bill at the end of 2010. The White House was largely uninterested, taking an initial Republican “No” for an answer and declining to use the leverage of the imminent expiration of the tax cuts. It would all work out later, the White House figured. In fact, they were counting on it because they wanted a big deficit deal as much as Republicans, they thought, and they could leverage the debt limit debate into their original plan. We know how it turned out.
Scheiber concludes that the President has turned back from the attempts at compromise with Republicans, now set on a different course:
FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS, Obama had been hatching proposals with an eye toward winning over the opposition. In most cases, all it had gotten him was more extreme demands from Republicans and not even a pretense of bipartisan support. Now, after the searing experience of the deficit deal, he still wanted reasonable, centrist policies. But he was done trying to fit them to the ever-shifting conservative zeitgeist. When he finally turned back to jobs in August, he told his aides not to “self-edit” proposals to improve their chances of passing the Republican House. “He pushed us to make sure this was not simply a predesigned legislative compromise,” one recalls.
Scheiber wonders if this was another last-minute course correction, a response to a reality getting away from the Administration, or evidence of a real shift.
The first test of this will come Monday with the President’s new budget proposal. The New York Times frames it as a choice made to favor new taxes over deficits, seemingly unaware that new taxes close deficits.
President Obama will lay out a budget blueprint on Monday that amounts to an election-year bet that a plan for higher taxes on the rich and more spending on popular programs like infrastructure and manufacturing will trump concerns over the deficit.
The new budget proposal contrasts with the deficit-cutting promises that attended the budget rollout last year and the debates that followed. Figures released on Friday indicate that the White House foresees a slightly higher deficit in the current fiscal year than the $1.3 trillion deficit of the 2011 fiscal year, even after the budget battles that dominated Washington last year.
The deficit is projected to fall to $901 billion in the fiscal year that starts in October, the first time since 2008 that the red ink would be below the $1 trillion mark. But last year, the White House had projected the 2013 deficit dropping further, to $768 billion.
The increase in the deficit for FY2012 assumes the extension of the payroll tax cut, unemployment insurance and the doc fix. But this budget has little to do with the outlays for FY2012; that’s come and gone. The keys to this proposal are $350 billion in jobs programs, basically the un-passed remnants of the American Jobs Act, and some additional investments in manufacturing R&D. Those aren’t going to happen given the Republican House. So the budget deficit for FY2013 is bound to be smaller than the $901 billion forecast in this document. In fact, this budget, like most Presidential budgets, will be proclaimed DOA the moment it drops tomorrow.
The budget proposal still has $3 trillion in deficit reduction over the 10-year window (on top of the $1 trillion already in place from spending caps in the debt limit deal), but half of that comes in the form of new taxes. A “financial crisis responsibility fee” creeps back into the equation, at a 10-year cost of $61 billion, along with the expiration of the Bush taxes cuts over $250,000 in income, and the imposition of the “Buffett rule,” which would replace the alternative minimum tax and ensure that millionaires pay at least a 30% effective rate.
And there are spending cuts in the document – $638 billion all told, including modest trims to Medicare and Medicaid, as well as agriculture subsidies.
And finally, as an add-on outside the document, by the end of the month the President will call for a lower corporate tax rate and fewer loopholes:
President Barack Obama will call for cutting the top 35 percent corporate tax rate as early as this month, according to two sources close to the administration.
The president is likely to propose a rate closer to an average of that seen in peer nations, the sources said.
This would jibe with remarks made last year by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who suggested the United States should be moving to a rate more in line with its major trading partners in the high 20-percent range.
The effective corporate tax rate in this country stood at 12% in the most recent statistics.
So can we conclude that this fits with the recent shift? Maybe in terms of emphasis. The jobs programs and higher taxes on the wealthy are at the top of the priority list. But all of the elements that the Administration has sought from the beginning of their term – a total of $4 trillion in deficit reduction, the “lower the rate, broaden the base” perspective on corporate taxes, an extension of the Bush tax cuts for 98% of the population, still remain in this document. We’re really talking about tone.





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Austerity here we come, especially if the media continues to drive the conversation. Not much hope for substantive change in the near future.
This Time We Mean It™.
The train wreck in December 2010 happened when the House was under Democratic control.
If the WH had wanted then to limit the extension of the cuts to returns under $250,000, they could have.
People in the White House can whine all they want about having had to placate the Blue Dogs,
but the Rules Committee was chaired by Louise Slaughter.
Now, with Republicans in charge of the House and remasculated Mitch McConnell in the Senate,
there is zero chance of the tax cut extensions being limited to under $250,000.
According to the congressional record VP Dick Cheney cast the deciding 51st vote for the Bush Tax Cuts. Nothing more be said about this kabuki BS I care crap from the WH or Congress D’s or R’s.
This whole budget rollout is probably why preznit was so desperate to wrap up the foreclosure fraud “settlement.”
There are these grafs in the NYT piece Dday linked to in the main post:
Oh, and BTW, Senate Minority Leader McConnell has already declared the preznit’s new budget DOA as of noon today:
LINK.
Here’s the line in the Bloomberg piece at the link:
For anyone who can stand to read it, there’s more from Paul Ryan who was on ABC’s talking heads this morning.
We are fortunate the GOP is insane or else Obama would have slashed the social safety net already. The old-timers like Catfood Simpson cannot believe the opportunities the Republicans have squandered to decimate the New Deal.
you are correct, sir! December 2010. We will remind Dems endlessly. You sold us out in December 2010 when you controlled both Houses of Congress and the White House. Dipshits.
OT: Georgetown Hoyas are handling St. John’s. Leading 66-58 in final minute.
Georgetown 67, St. John’s 61, 34 seconds to go. (Men’s hoops.)
Dday I’m not what your internal alerts & feeds send you, but I posted comments 30-33 on yesterday’s thread about “HAMP Incentives” to give links to last night’s NYT story from Gretchen Morgenson and NYT editorial. Both Gretchen and editorial board are highly critical of the so-called deal.
My comments started here.
Gretchen’s report
NYT editorial
speaking of “budgeting”, there are some buildings on fire in Athens.
Whillikers! Who knew?
http://news.yahoo.com/buildings-set-ablaze-greece-debt-vote-195047787.html
Cutting the corporate tax rate, doing nothing about unfair trade or the deferred tax non-enforcement under IRS Code 482, cutting Medicare (which some reason in the budget but not in the media) – appointments of only the center-right, if not just the right – with near zero recess appointments. Talk of more H1 visas as US college grads can not find jobs. Clinton tax rate automatic come back to be stopped because that would mean he could not claim he tried really hard for higher tax rates on the rich.
yes – it really makes a difference as to who wins in Nov – a GOP President would be worse – right?
I saw similar story in UK Guardian, but it seemed light on details.
Overseas reporting might be skimpy this afternoon since it’s already evening in London and the Brits are all gaga over the BAFTAs (UK Oscars).
It’s evidence of more election campaign flat-out lying from the Betrayer-in-Chief.
When you have a pen full of greased pigs it comes down to the size of the greased pig you try to catch. The smaller ones are easier to handle when you catch them, but their also faster. The bigger ones are slower but harder to fight when they are caught. So, do we move more now or fight harder later?
I always thought avoiding the catch a greased pig contest was best – via changing what was present at the fair, and refusing to go to the fair if they had a greased pig contest. An 800 pound pig that looks at you as a possible meal and is as intelligent as a dog need not be greased to be off my list for hugging.
In this “contest for president” I just do not see much difference – I will not vote for the GOP, and indeed Obama is more dangerous because he can get the Democrats to go along with GOP goals and solutions despite the fact those same Democrats have fought the GOP ideas in the past.
I am told by the talking heads today that the real left is so small they have no impact on anyones thinking – the NYT editorial board is the real left because more folks think like they do.
So I work for downstream Democrats/progressives/liberals – and to H_ll with the rest of the Democrats and all the GOP.
Is there any significant difference between a GOP Presidential Puppet and a Democratic Presidential Puppet, besides the spelling? That was a rhetorical question.
While I agree with you, I don’t believe it would matter how we voted as both parties are totally corrupt and all to willing to sell out the people for an addition to their bank accounts. Sadly, this covers all three branches of the government and has also infected the states. Basically, we’re screwed.
There certainly is no point in giving any money to the DNC or the DCCC or the DSCC or volunteering for any of the national Dem operations. OTOH, Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) is not entirely hopeless and ActBlue can have some strategic impact.
I was encouraged to see the text of this page at PCCC asking supporters to send a “note” to AG Schneiderman. I got the PCCC email blast on Friday. It struck me that, except for linking to Rachel Maddow’s softball interview of Schneiderman, the PCCC screen was very careful not to call the Thursday circus a “settlement” or a “deal” or an “agreement.” PCCC called it an “announcement” and “news” and asked supporters to vote Yes or No on whether they supported what Schneiderman announced.
I am getting ready to duck for giving even faint praise to an entity involved in electoral campaigns, but if PCCC can stick to that posture the situation is not hopeless.
Book Salon up with Michael Hastings’ The Operators: The Wild and Terrifying Inside Story of America’s War in Afghanistan hosted by Ambassador Peter Galbraith
“…do we move more now or fight harder later…”
How about we go ask Alan Grayson. (Smile and a wink… :o) )
“They have no impact on anyone’s thinking.”
They’d like for us to think that, but it’s total bullshit. Just think back to how he behaved after he’d fired Shirley Sherrod, for her “racism”. Initially, Obama was more afraid of Fox than he was, of outraged progressives. That quickly changed when a liberal shitstorm broke on his head. The man WILL respond to pressure, but we need to gin some up, and the best way to do that is to find someone willing to primary him.
Word on the street is that Wall Street and the Catholic Church will be heavily involved in getting out the vote and working the precincts on election day because that’s what good Dems do.
“Because I’m sure as hell NOT.”
Jeebus, if we could just hook FDR up to a generator, all that spinning would rival the TVA. Just sayin’
“…all that spinning would rival the TVA.”
Pretty good sayin’… :o)
well, how else is TNR gonna keep its position at the head of the Kennedy School Of Government, College of Yuppie Pond Scum Excuse Makers?
yawn … obama was boxed in … I mean betrayed … I mean … give me a fucking break.
at least with Cheney-Raygun I had NOT voted for the lying stealing bastards.
LOTE is over for this chump. I feel dirty for voting FOR these HOPE-y lying sell out fuckers for the last few decades. I voted “Medicare ForALL” for ALL state and Federal offices in 2010, and, I have NEVER regretted it.
rmm.
We do need a real economy in America. Our ideas on economy have always been nothing more than fluff and nonsense. We need reduced taxation and fees. It matters little if they kill you on property taxes, income taxes, or user fees on your phone bill. The point is that they kill you. The method of killing you is not the issue.
The shake up that must occur will be radical and it will happen. It can happen because of collapse and a total scramble to survive or it can happen in a controlled manner according to laws but it will happen. All that people fear must come to pass if we are to survive. Some redistribution of wealth, a limiting on profits, social wage regulations and earnings regulations and a closing off of all modes of bypassing the plan must be put in place. The sheer size of population mandates a different view of what is right and what is wrong. We can not tolerate suffering while others live in excess. Ending suffering is the same as ending a disease. Ending suffering is the goal.
I’m sure one is less evil.
“Significant difference” was the question. A difference that makes no difference is no difference.