New statistics out of Greece show that austerity shrunk the economy more than expected last year. GDP in Greece fell 6.8% in 2011, and a slightly faster 7% in the fourth quarter. The country is in a fifth straight year of recession, and the numbers are rapidly approaching a full-on depression.
So of course, the solution was to ink a deal with European leaders for more austerity. But it appears that Eurozone finance ministers may save Greece from the road to ruin, by forcing default and the likely consequence of an exit from the euro.
Eurozone officials have called off an emergency meeting of finance ministers to approve a vital €130bn bail-out for Athens amid a growing fight among the country’s European creditors about the merits of allowing Greece to go bankrupt [...]
Olli Rehn, the European Commission’s top economics official, warned there would be “devastating consequences” if Greece defaulted, and pleaded for eurozone governments to approve the bail-out quickly. Officials said Mr Rehn has support from the European Central Bank and the French government.
But a group of eurozone governments, particularly those that retain triple-A credit ratings, has lost faith Greece will ever deliver its end of the bargain. Hardline officials in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland are increasingly urging a Greek default.
“We are getting closer to default,” said a senior eurozone official. “Germany, Finland and the Netherlands are losing patience.”
Obviously Germany is the important actor here. If they want Greece to default, they will in all likelihood default. Germany believes – probably wrongly – that they have built a firewall to stop contagion from hitting the rest of Europe. But the larger issue is that Greece is trapped inside the euro, with its citizens doomed to massive suffering unless the Eurozone either really becomes a fiscal union, or lets them go. Right now sentiment appears to be moving toward the latter.
Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos accused some finance ministers of wanting Greece to leave the euro. My view is that he should take them up on it! As Martin Wolf writes today,
Why does Greece – a country with little more than 2 per cent of the eurozone’s gross domestic product – cause such headaches? [...] Greece itself, though an important irritant, cannot be decisive for the future of the currency area. Yet the fact that this small, economically weak and chronically mismanaged country has been able to cause such difficulty also indicates the fragility of the structure.
And so the solution is to change the structure in some fundamental way. Because the status quo will devastate Greece, if not much of the continent. Portugal has largely agreed to European demands to impose more austerity, and their debt-to-GDP load has only grown as their economy has shrunk. Italy has entered into an austerity-induced recession. And the entire Eurozone saw its GDP shrink by 0.3% in the last quarter, putting it one quarter away from an officially declared recession.
Kevin Drum offers the solutions, which haven’t changed for years – fiscal union or monetary union breakup. The other option is to muddle through, with austerity-induced recessions everywhere and needless suffering. That’s the current path.





30 Comments


Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL News Desk
Soon, now, very soon one of those expeditions to Greece by the Eurozone Inquisitors will locate and unmask the last of the Keynesian heretics hiding in Athens!
And after an auto de fa fueled by the burning of the last vestiges of the social contract the <1% will be finally be freed to unzip their pants and let the blessings of the free market trickle down upon the huddled Greek masses!
Then the Jubilee!
Jubilee for the 99%, not just the 1%.
Agree, this has to be the plan; if indeed there is a plan by the <1%. They don't want a successful outcome in Greece or even <1%ers are in conflict and Greece is the experiment?
My bold.
That means they’ve looted as much as they think they can get away with for now.
And all along I was thinking it wouldn’t end until GE and Monsanto had their neon signs on the Acropolis and the Parthenon.
All animals are equal; but some animals are more equal than others.
Will we have Euros signed by Merkel that are worth double Euros signed by Sarkosy? Or is the Euro dead?
Merk & Sark are Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber, take your choice for which is which. Fascists, both of them. Sark’s playing the populist card only bc he’s up for reelection. Seems like he’s got the same campaign advisers as O.
As for the outlook, I defy anyone to make a sensible forecast under conditions where policy makers are stark raving nuts.
No, just being realistic at last. Greece is not going to be able to pay their debt under the plan the Germans presented. Everybody is aware of that, but they pretend so they don’t have to clean up their books.
But Greece WILL default. Oh, they might call it something else (Controlled exit?) but it’ll trigger the CDS’s. Which will hurt Germany more than they’ve publically admitted IMO and will likely kill France. At that point, we may see the entire ECU break apart as politicians will be more interested in protecting their own banks than in taking one for the team.
Boxturtle (They’ve had a year to stall and prepare)
So you are recommending buying stock in that tear gas company in PA? :)
And excellent idea. Greece should leave the Euro. In fact the only ones who have been helped at all by the creation of the Euro and Eurozone are the elites of France and Germany and a few others. The people them selves have been systematically screwed by it.
A month or so ago, I suggested building a bomb shelter in your back yard.
Wonder if they would be as effective against U.S. drone attacks as against nuke bomb attack.
Bunker busters could be used but that would be overkill. oh wait…..
You would have to go pretty far underground to withstand the Bunker Busters. Yucca Mountain could be subdivided for underground up-scale condos. We could start a REIT since they cancelled storing Obama’s nuclear waste there.
Underground Lofts. Counterintuitive.
Hey, counterintuitive is the order of the day. ;)
That’s the best investment opportunity I’ve heard in a long time.
Perhaps Ahmedinejad would be willing to help on the construction. Experienced, dontcha know.
Which emirate is it that built the luxury hotel underwater?
… sadly, most such bomb shelters are designed as suburban-style fallout shelters with the implicit assumption that the nukes and their vast overpressure waves would be detonating over the cities and other high-value targets rather than over the ‘burbs.
But thermobaric weaponry gives the <1% the ability to bring non-nuclear overpressure overkill to wherever there might be holdouts and surburban-style shelters can't withstand a drone-launched Hellfire MAC.
They really can’t help the Greeks or then the other countries will ask: ” what about us?” So I agree it looks like a default is on the way unless the Greeks decide to harm their people some more. I wonder how long it takes for this to play out. It has been on going for a few years now. But that just shows how stubborn they all are, they maybe can muddle through?
You guys remember my buddy, the “conspiracty nut”??? Well he says the “International Banking Conspiracy” allowed this whole mess to get “out of hand”. Crickets have 6 legs. HE says that “the plan” was to cut off 4 legs but leave 2 so the cricket could still hop. But some idiots went too far and cut off the 5th leg, leaving the cricket unable to move and just turn in circles. He says, “the conspriacy” will save us all because they don’t have a choice.
Whadya think???
Austerity, the tool of the plutocrats coming soon to a town near you. Some people even agree with them. We need to cut back all sorts of things (except guns and the like) and then all will be well. They have a whole economic philosophy about it and you just can’t disprove any of it. So fuck you.
Sounds perfectly reasonable.
So we will all be collateral beneficiaries. The <1% may learn to appreciate the rest of humanity or at least our legs. :)
But a group of eurozone governments, particularly those that retain triple-A credit ratings, has lost faith Greece will ever deliver its end of the bargain.
This is not a loss of faith, but an admission to a reality that they created. They could have helped Greece grow its way out of this mess, but instead they tried their best to destroy Greece in the name of the money men. Greece needs to decide what is best for its people. It’s increasingly looking like default.
I heard an economist this morning state that many countries are in default, just like Greece, they spend more than they make and owe more than they can pay back. The U.S. included but the difference being the Banksters are demanding payment from Greece.
Sound like somebody is gonna get “knee-capped”.
I’m so glad the USA is “too big to fail”.
Yeah, he didn’t get the talking points i.e. Greeks did it to themselves, always been a problem, Govt promised more than it can deliver, people seem “entitled”…wait…substitute U.S.A for Greeks.
Are we too big to fail or simply next in line?
The big difference is that the U.S., unlike Greece, can spend a relatively modest amount more and put enough people back to work (doing things that seriously need doing) to jumpstart the economy and earn our way back to black ink.
But that’s against the religious dogma that the <1% has been carefully inculcating into the masses so we instead we end up as serfs. Broke and unemployed sefs.
Which is the plan.
The 40+ members of the Greek parliament voting against the IMF blackmail agreement were ejected from that body of government by the Banksters’ appointed Prime Minister.
at this point in the long-running euro saga, it seems likely to me that the dissolution of the euro is both desired and expected by leaders in europe, especially those in the german, french, and benelux countries.
apparently what is at issue is who will shoulder the blame.
greece or another of the PZE, (“peripheral zone euro”, which i consider preferable to the invidious “PIIGS”) are being squeezed to take the fall, leaving german, french, benelux politicians “blame-free” when all hell breaks loose.
consumers are the goose that lays the golden egg in modern economies.
it’s amazing to me how poorly received this axiom is among policy makers in modern economies.
Slightly OT, but a report on Slate.com said that the current head of the World Bank is stepping down. It speculates that Obama may nominate either Larry Summers or Hillary Clinton as his replacement. A spokesidiot for Hillary says she’s not interested.